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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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Well of course Ekland is so notoriously unreliable that him saying it almost makes it not happen. He does tease with that top TOP source line though, and since discussion on here is thinnner than a silk thread, I will think on it.

There have been rumors of us talking to Toronto. In the past it seemed they wanted E, but talks can lead to other talks, so it's not crazy.

Here is the rumor Coastal found from Ekland:

Kessel, Kadri and a Third for Semin and Carolina's #1

It is a bit intriguing. If the Canes want a quick uptick in offense, and a true first line winger to go with E, say what you will of Kessel, the man is a point machine. Kadri is a bit of a low level "problem child" with nice skill who could uses a change of scenery, and is a center.

This would instantly and seriously upgrade our offense for a team that really needs to be competitive ASAP owing to the empty building long stretch of futility thing. Toronto on the other hand, is Toronto. They can go full on rebuild and have the building full for years and years. What a draft for them, picking 4 AND 5 in this richest of drafts? Maybe? Just Maybe, package the picks and trade up and get Eichel?

But the best part: Semin. We offload the Russian malaise onto the most intensely "player scrutinized" market on Earth, (from the least). And we our out from his contract...forever. That would seriously appeal to Francis, Peters, and PK. Maybe Semin responds. Probably not, but maybe.

The third round pick has merit in this restocking year, though from Toronto's point of view it is out of the sweet spot of the first 40-45 picks. But is is a very early third round pick. We do still get an early second rounder (our own). And we do have two first rounders next year.

IF we are not thrilled about the guys under "McEichelstrome". It's not crazy. For me, as you know, I'd look at this mainly if Marner and Strome are projected gone by #5. What about Hanifin? Three things: 1. His drop in some rankings/mocks 2. Dmen less predictable 3. Dmen take longer to arrive 4. We just drafted Fleury and we NEED to fix the defense THIS year. Assuming that somehow Francis finds a really good dman to go with Faulk, then Fluery would be #3, Most teams don't pay more than 3 dmen.

This is all of course hugely speculative, but who's not bored here? Might as well speculate.

Now, salary...we lose Semin's $7million but pick up Kessel's $10 million, and Kessel is locked in till 2019. Normally, picking up that salary at that term would be nuts, but we are offloading Semin's contract, and Kessel has a contract that declines at the end ($9 then $7mill) it was front loaded the way I recommend us doing with guys. We would own Kessel for a couple of years for sure, but he would be tradeable after that if the need arose.

Kessel is a bit of a Skinner, not much defense, but he is a ppg player we all think Skinner could be but hasn't been.

Kadri makes $3.1. Frankly the kind of salary we need more of. He is a "needs to grow up" kind of guy, but to go from the brightest lights of the hockey world to the faint rosey glow of small town Raleigh could help that. He's only 23. He's been just shy of a 50 point guy for the last two years, but he can do better. He is an RFA after next year, so he and Kessel would be long term pieces. People may or may not be thrilled with that, but Francis did say he wants to build for the long term, so that would fit.

$13 - 7 = 6 million. That is my rudimentary guess at the cap space we'd have left. Enough for one serious Dman and maybe a second value d man.

And if we made this deal, added one UFA dman and made no other moves? How are we not competitive next year? Our d would be a little thin, but maybe one small move to find the #4 guy could tighten that.

But goal? Check.
Forwards? Check
Defense? OK a bit thin, but Faulk , Hainsey, plus pick ups could cobble together a workable committee.

Also, picking up Kadri at center makes Nash tradable. If Francis could package Nash with an extra pick and who knows? Maybe we can pick up a workable #4 dman....

A lot of people will undoubtedly wonder why pick two key guys from a terrible team. That, to me is the main detraction from this. Toronto seems to have tired of Kadri. Maybe they want out from Kessel's huge deal.

But Kessel, at 27, is right in his peak and a ppg player. Kadri is a project but is still young. He was the #7 overall pick and 50 points is not chicken feed. He was about 40 last year, but two years ago he was #88 in the league w/ 50 points. That technically makes him in the top 25% of starting forwards and just in the all NHL first line stats. (90 forwards are "first line"). BTW that same year Kessel was #8 in the league in points. Ahead of Talyor Hall, Alex Ovechkin, and just about everyone else.

Put another way, Kessel puts up the points we dreamed Semin could put up.

I wonder how E would fit into all of this. In the past, I really wonder if E would be good w/ another guy making more than him. Now though, after the nearly $80 million he's made and all the losing? Maybe he's ready for it.

So, am I bored? Of course. So. What does it look like?

I hate to give up such a prime pick, but if Strome and Marner go, we must either wait for a dman, or go with at least somewhat of a hope (that Crouse can find offense, that Ratanen can score in the NHL, etc). This deal gives us an instant ppg player, a young top pick who can be counted on for 50 points AND removes a toxic Russian from the room and the books.

Not sure Toronto would do it, but as a fan who would really like a reason to think next year could be different, adding that instant offense would be really really tempting.

Edited by remkin

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Eklund has the Canes trading away the 5th overall to Toronto - this from a TOP source, LOL.

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Toronto-talking-to-Carolina-Updated-1024pm-with-details/1/68396

 

"Update: Just told it could look something like Kessel, Kadri and a Third for Semin and Carolina's #1"

 

Hard to put any stock in an Eklund rumor, but it is a bit intriguing from this perspective: how much value in the trade do you give to someone picking up Semin's contract?  :letssee:

 

 

EDIT: post overlap. remkin posted while I was typing, lol.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Funny we both thought is was intriguing. It is.

 

Just for fun:

 

E Staal/J Staal/ Kessel

 

Skinner/Kadri/Lindholm

 

Gerbe/Rask/Nestrasil

 

 

Can mix and match a lot of ways...no we won't have the smash mouth team some want, but a reasonable expectation of solid steps forward for Rask, Linholm and Skinner, and then add in 50 from Kadri and 75 from Kessel? There are some points to be had.

Edited by remkin

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Ah, the dreaded off season, following the 6th failure to see playoff hockey in person at our beloved PNC Arena!! A time for dreams to flourish, unabashed, prior to floundering in reality of 15-16. 

 

What a joy it'd be to see Semin's lackluster game disappear from our repertoire. Do we think that the current powers to be in "the center of hockey universe" would fall for a truly Montrealian dump ala JR's trade of yesteryear? I'd be impressed, but would truly hate to give up the potential of a 5th. Then again, Kessel could enliven Staal, and that'd truly be a "win-win". Only in a fantasy world though!!!

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"Update: Just told it could look something like Kessel, Kadri and a Third for Semin and Carolina's #1"

 

. . .

What a joy it'd be to see Semin's lackluster game disappear from our repertoire. Do we think that the current powers to be in "the center of hockey universe" would fall for a truly Montrealian dump ala JR's trade of yesteryear? I'd be impressed, but would truly hate to give up the potential of a 5th. Then again, Kessel could enliven Staal, and that'd truly be a "win-win". Only in a fantasy world though!!!

 

Toronto has already traded for a $$ player that will likely never play again because the overall deal freed up some cap space (David Clarkson for Nathan Horton). Since actual money isn't an issue with them, I'm wondering if they might be viewing Semin as a buyout/ write-off rather than a potential player.

 

I wonder what they mean by "a third".  Is it T's 3rd round pick, or a 3rd player?  If the latter, and it was a good D prospect (or even a solid 3d pair d-man), that would really pique my interest.    

Edited by LakeLivin

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I saw this rumor last night.  I'm all for stocking up the cupboard, but I don't think RF technically said we are rebuilding.  In fact, he did say at the end of the season that he would use our draft picks the best way he saw fit to improve the team, rather that meant drafting the right player or trading it away. 

 

If I were RF and was offered that trade from Toronto, I'd have a very hard time saying no.

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Ah, the dreaded off season, following the 6th failure to see playoff hockey in person at our beloved PNC Arena!! A time for dreams to flourish, unabashed, prior to floundering in reality of 15-16. 

 

Lately the mid-season and end of season have been far more dreaded. At least there's hope in the off season.

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I saw this rumor last night.  I'm all for stocking up the cupboard, but I don't think RF technically said we are rebuilding.  In fact, he did say at the end of the season that he would use our draft picks the best way he saw fit to improve the team, rather that meant drafting the right player or trading it away. 

 

If I were RF and was offered that trade from Toronto, I'd have a very hard time saying no.

 

Here's what a Leafs fan said on one of their forums when discussing the Eklund rumor.

 

"Well, the Canes are not a true rebuilding team. They have the Staal brothers, still in relative prime, or just past. They have a proven goaltender they can believe in...when he's playing well. And more importantly, they need entertainment value for that market...their gate sucks, and a star forward would be huge for them.

I think Kessel would be a great fit for Carolina, but taking back a Semin, or other cap dump, would have to be part of the package for them.

But not at the draft...although, Phaneuf, and the Nashville pick for their #5 might be doable..."

 
Throwing Phaneuf into the mix might make for some interesting possibilities.  He's only 30 yo, so he should still have a fair amount of tread on the tires.  And he'd bring some of the grit that many here are desperate for. Of course, that's just a fan throwing it out as a suggestion (which may be more reliable than Eklund, lol).
 
 
 
Side note: things are so bad in Toronto, they shut down the official NHL fan forum a while back.  :coverears:  

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I always wanted Calgary's version of Phanuef he hit like Scott Stevens, but this *edit* the Leafs made him into I'm not so sure.

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Here's what a Leafs fan said on one of their forums when discussing the Eklund rumor.

 

"Well, the Canes are not a true rebuilding team. They have the Staal brothers, still in relative prime, or just past. They have a proven goaltender they can believe in...when he's playing well. And more importantly, they need entertainment value for that market...their gate sucks, and a star forward would be huge for them.

I think Kessel would be a great fit for Carolina, but taking back a Semin, or other cap dump, would have to be part of the package for them.

But not at the draft...although, Phaneuf, and the Nashville pick for their #5 might be doable..."

 
Throwing Phaneuf into the mix might make for some interesting possibilities.  He's only 30 yo, so he should still have a fair amount of tread on the tires.  And he'd bring some of the grit that many here are desperate for. Of course, that's just a fan throwing it out as a suggestion (which may be more reliable than Eklund, lol).
 
 
 
Side note: things are so bad in Toronto, they shut down the official NHL fan forum a while back.  :coverears:  

 

I wouldn't do that Phaneuf trade for our 1st, but those could be add-on pieces if we do the original deal +Skinner.  I'd too love to have Phaneuf.  And the original trade would give Carolina a legit 1st and 2nd pairing on offense.

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We could do the Eklund deal then sign Cody Franson and become Leafs South.

 

May be a bit of a Rutherford move, but Franson, Faulk and eventually Fleury could be the big three back there for a long time. Then add Kessel and Kadri to our forwards and lose Semin?

 

We could taint every Leaf with the same brush, but picking the best pieces off the carcus could be an interesting way to go if we could pull it off.

 

Just spitballin' here.

Edited by remkin

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On Ek's rumor du jour, does anyone really think think that GMRF would think about adding Kessel at $10M, $9M, $9M, and $7M for the next 4 years?  I know getting rid of Semin's toxic contract is job #1, but to take that boat anchor of a contract back is not going to help the Canes.  Long term massive deals have been the problem that the Canes have been fighting.  Kessel's money on the books would be $21M more than the buyout number on Semin.  Does that seem like a trade off that makes sense?  Not to me.  I don't really think that Kessel is a Peters' type of player to begin with.  He's a scorer, but he isn't big on defense.  So looking at it this way, we take TML's big contract off their hands, and they take ours in this scenario.  They buy out Semin and have our 1st.  We would end up with an expensive Kessel, Kadri who will cost more than he's worth, and a 3rd.

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SuperDave, I'm inclined to agree with you on the fact that Kessel wouldn't be a good fit here.  And yes, I think his salary alone is reason for us to stay away, but I like Kessel as a player and wish there were some circumstance where he could play here.  I think it's funny reading other sites, fans think we're just going to give away the 5th pick.  Also, Toronto signed Kessel and Phaneuf to horrible contracts (I honestly think those are the two worst contracts in the league, even more than Semin) and expect to get quality returns for them.

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So, Toronto wants to give up a fat contract and a player they suspended and a third round pick for our first round pick and a bad contract. Wow, how can we pass on that? Sounds like a formula for relocation.

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Honestly, RF is one season away from some contract, roster, and financial flexibility.  Why on earth would he jump on a single player that would make up 14% of next season's salary cap, and give up the #5 pick that could net a good player that would have a few years playing at a low salary number?  That rumor has no more validity to me than a Magic 8 Ball guess.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Has anyone done a study on Eklund's postive prediction rate? I know that the rumor could be 100% accurate and the trade not happen, but he is claiming to have a very "top top" source on this one. I really do think that he is more of a guesser than a guy with lots of grade A sources in general. It would normally go something like: "Let's see, need a rumor. Who has talked about trades? Hmm Toronto and Carolina have been rumored on a couple of trades, they might be talking. How might that go? Well Toronto is fed up with Kadri...and the Kessel contract is killing them with the Phaneuf contract. The Phanuef to Carolina thing has been rumored...Carolina would love nothing more than to walk on the Semin deal...how would that work? Carolina needs goal scoring Kessel can score..Toronto wants to rebuild and the talent they could pick up w/ two picks in the top 5 of this draft? etc.....

 

If he would just say, here's a trade that might have some possibilities, but no, he says that a this trade is being discussed by the two teams based on a top top source.

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Honestly, RF is one season away from some contract, roster, and financial flexibility.  Why on earth would he jump on a single player that would make up 14% of next season's salary cap, and give up the #5 pick that could net a good player that would have a few years playing at a low salary number?  That rumor has no more validity to me than a Magic 8 Ball guess.

 

Well, it's Eklund; so by definition the rumor has no more validity than a Magic 8 Ball guess, right? :P

 

I'm not disagreeing with your overall sentiment.  But I do think that the Kessel numbers RF would (should) be considering aren't his raw contract figures but his hit minus the savings from dumping Semin's contract.  I think we all agree that a Semin "buyout" is almost certainly going to be a fixed cost, so any way to avoid that should be part of the overall accounting. I suspect that actual $$s are more important to the Canes at this point rather than cap hit. So Kessel's actual "net" cost at this point would be: (Semin's buyout is $2.33m per year over the next 6 years)

 

2015-16  $7.67m

2016-17  $6.67m

2017-18  $6.67m    

2018-19  $4.67m  

2019-20  $4.67m

2020-21  $3.67m

2021-22  $6.00m

 

I don't see that as being overly egregious for an elite 27 yo scorer.  Now whether Kessel is a good match for the Canes going forward is an entirely separate question.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Apparently Kessel has a limited NTC. So there are a limited number of teams he can block a trade to. One wonders if we are on the list. But presumably that would carry forward if we ever wanted to trade him.

If we picked up Kessel' contract, but lose Semin's yes, we are net $3 million down, but not really, Kessel has somewhat unbalanced contract. His cap hit is only $1 million more than Semin. BUT we get a ppg player in his prime. And the effect of Kessel, who goes full speed on offense at least, compared to an utterly useless Semin coasting around could be profound. It is hard to look at it that way becuase we are offloading a massive misfire in the deal. But Kessel is already as good as the #5 pick might end up being, and it is immediate. Kadri, with all of his maturity issues, is still worth his contract and 50 points/year would be about a 1/3 chance of ever getting out of a pick below say #15 most years.

I know it flies in the face of the "long term contracts for too much dough is the problem" idea. But one can't get locked into always fighting against the bad execution of the last guy. Like saying Francis is obsessed about getting bigger, when every time he mentions what he is lookiing for getting bigger is always the last thing. Speed is always first, and Kessel is fast.

Kessel produces for his money. AND his contract is front loaded in a major way.

In fact the burden of Kessel for Semin is not on the team because of the way his contract is structured. It is on PK. He makes $10 milliion but only $8 million on the cap.

The next three years he gets declining signing bonuses and next year drops to $9 million.

After four years Kessel becomes affordable: the last 4 years are 7,7, 6, and 6 million. Unless he pulls a Semin, he will be far more tradable after 4 years. You are effectvely paying Kessel a ton of money for the next 4 years. Our contract to Semin? 4 more years.

When one considers the probably salary cap bump and salary inflation, the last 4 years on Kessel's deal could be a steal, and again, a very tradable guy.

I like contrarian thinking, maybe to a fault. Now when we want to shed big contracts and build the farm system and not make the JR mistakes and "get bigger', this seems like a crazy move. But I don't think so. It is a bit of a buy low move. Yes Kessel is hardly low priced, but he is a guy who normally would require much more return that a 5th pick, let alone, offloading a terrible salary, getting a young 45 point center with upside and a third round pick. If Toronto made the playoffs this would not be an option.

Our hockey market sucked wind last year in a way I have not seen since I've been a regular fan. There was more interest in helping a friend dig a ditch and move furniture than to go to a Canes game last year. There is value to a shot in the arm. Let alone a shot in the arm while offloading a rucksack.

Kessel for the 5th pick and Kadri for Semin.

Kessel has played all 82 games 4 of the last 5 years. He is just shy of a ppg (.93 ppg) and that includes this debacle of a season.

I like to overweigh playoff stats where whistles are swallowed and points are hard to come by and the stage is bright. Kessel has 21 points in 22 games and a plus 11 in the playoffs, including the infamous choke game.

Yes he had an awful plus minus in this terrible year. But he has been a plus player in the past, and generally has run around even.

The Canes have not even had a ppg type player for a full season since E's 2006 campaign. OK Semin in the lock out year over 44 games, but remember how awsome he was that year?

The Leafs had a lot of problems last year. They basically seem to have never recovered from their implosion game in the playoffs. Their problems run deep. Kessel was not the problem though. Sure Kadri could be an issue, but he has nice upside and a change of scenery could work nicely, and I'm pretty sure he could be traded if need be.

I hate giving up the #5 pick. But if this trade went down, we get a bonefide NHL scoring star, and 120 offensive points immediately. We get a guy to play with Staal. And this is not a short term fix. Both guys can be here for a long time if they work and both can be moved if they don't. And we get free of Semin's contract immediately. Maybe that high third rounder turns into a player. The offense could be fixed instantly. If Francis can find that dman? How are we not competitive? He would have just one more major move to make after this: find one good defenseman.

The other thing is this. If E is willing to take the hometown and stat adjusted pay cut, that would change things. He might not be the top paid guy, but would remain captain and face of the franchise.

 

If this came together and Kessel and Kadri worked out, and E restructured? Ward either restructures or gets a return, but say we can keep him just for fun.

 

We have Fleury say season after this. Francis picks up a UFA dman. That makes a decent defense. Lindholm and Rask step up a big notch. Nestrasil steps up a half notch. Skinner rebounds or is traded for a nice asset. And we have two first round picks next year. E stays but at a fair price. If Ward stays goal is solid. If he goes we get an asset.

To me I really wonder why Toronto would do this deal. The #5 pick in exchange for Kessel, and taking Semin? Even if they want to offload Kadri, I would think they could get something for him.

Edited by remkin

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Again, JR doesn't work here anymore....hello.

 

And Kessel doesn't play anything resembling a 200 ft. game and is soft as butter.  Sound familiar?  Teammates don't like him because he's a whiny a-hole.  He's also a proven quitter (see TML's from December on when they threw their sticks down and went home).

 

However, there is entertainment value in watching folks chase an Eklund rumor.  Thanks for the laughs.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Just say no to Kessel. He is owed 54 mil over the next 7 years (10, 9, 9, 7, 7, 6 and 6). Semin is only 21 mil for the next 3yrs. If he picks up his production next year, and I know it's a BIG if, we could possibly trade him and get out from under another big contract we don't need as we rebuild (which we need to do, even if it's unpleasant). Even if we have to eat 1 mil or two of his salary, 3-6mil over 3 years, is better than a buy out or this big money trade for Kessel. I really think we need to clear out some of these high cost, long term contracts and take time to assess where we are, where we want to go, and what we need to get there before we add any new big deals. I would also like us to adopt a policy of not giving out these long term contracts.  I would hope RF would limit contract length to 4 years, and stop giving NTC/NMC like candy. It would give us so much more flexibility, even as some of our contracts will remain costly.

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However, there is entertainment value in watching folks chase an Eklund rumor.  Thanks for the laughs.

 

It's all a Canes fan has once the playoffs start.

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