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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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Dang . . . I was kind of hoping for the next Boychuk. :lol:

 

But seriously, looking back at the 2010 draft, I'd say we did about as good as could be expected with Skinner (unless you want to cherry-pick and say we should have drafted Cam Fowler who the next 4 teams also passed by)

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2010e.html

 

I was honestly mad when Fowler fell to the Canes, and JR went for a smallish figure skater.  Fowler was projected higher (5ish), but something was causing him to slip.  I thought for sure that JR would take him, but JR just couldn't take a defenseman with a 1st rounder unless he was under 6' (hello Murphy).

 

I keed...I keed

 

triumph.jpeg?w=650

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2nd halftime of the Rags/Caps and I'm flipping channels.  Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid is on.  I mention this because...

 

As for Triumph, I love Triumph

 

To keep this on topic, I'm sure the Canes will draft somebody.

 

Edited by super_dave_1

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Triumph is hilarious. I like the one a while ago where he interviewed people on the street in their Star Wars costumes.

 

Best Line: To a guy (adult) in a Darth Vadar outfit with all the buttons on the front:

 

"And which one of these buttons do you push to get your mother to come pick you up?"

Edited by remkin

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Triumph is hilarious. I like the one a while ago where he interviewed people on the street in their Star Wars costumes.

 

Best Line: To a guy (adult) in a Darth Vadar outfit with all the buttons on the front:

 

"And which one of these buttons do you push to get your mother to come pick you up?"

I watched that one too last night during one of the hockey half times. All of the Triumph stuff is great.

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OK how about a little mish mash largely useless mock draft analysis? Yes?

 

The DC Pro sports site lists 6 new mock drafts since I last looked. One is just a list of names with lots of aytpical picks so I through that one out.

 

Remaining 5:

 

Canes Pick:

 

Marner (2)

Hanifin

Barzal

Strome

 

That said, the idea of Strome/Hanifin or Hanifin/Strome going 3-4 is solidifying. Thus the idea that we will quite possibly have to pick between Marner, Crouse or other is pretty likely. Of course the draft itself usually only generally follows the mock drafts. Marner's size or the bias against picking D men high could alter the thing.

 

Still the overwhelming weight of the mock drafts say Hanfin and Strome go 3/4 or 4/3.

 

All of the most recent mock drafts have Hanifin in the top 6 and the last three all put him at #3.

 

Only one mock has Marner cracking the top 4 and has Toronto taking him there.

 

The last 10 mock drafts, 5/10 have us taking Marner.

 

6/7 mocks have Crouse going right behind us at #6, where OBXer has us picking. :P

 

3 names that pop into the top 5 around once each: Zacha, Barzal, Kylington.

 

 

I like mock drafts that don't just list the players but provide an explanation. Here are some selected observations:

 

Coyotes lost Yandle take Hanifin. Coyotes have a drop off on D, take Hanifin. Coyotes lack depth at center, take Strome.

Crouse may compare to Rick Nash. (would explain his high ranking).

Marner and Strome before Hanifin due to unpredictibility w/ projecting D men.

Marner is the obvious choice for the Hurricanes.

Hanfin is a cross between Scott Neidemier and Rob Blake

Canes take Marner over Crouse based on best player available and offense is more difficult to adress than toughness

Barzal dropped due to injury, but in the last two months was outplayed only by McDavid: superstar upside.

Marner: speedy winger, unselfish with a bit of toughness. In a less top heavy draft would be the #1 pick.

 

After all of that, I'm still on Marner if it goes as expected, or Hanifin or Strome if either one drops.

 

But if we don't really want to pick Marner trading down, while very hard to actually accomplish would net a very good player all the way down to #11. A move from 5 to 11 is supposed to net around the #27 pick. But if we traded w/ the #11 team their second rounder would be the #41 pick. So not sure how we actuall work it out. Maybe get their second and next year's second rounder? Maybe just next year's first rounder?

 

I don't trade down unless someone overpays, and I don't trade down past #11.

 

I base this on reading about players and the cluster effect. This is not a very good reason, but it is what it is. The cluster effect looks at mock drafts and rankings and sees clusters of guys ranked in vague groups.

 

IF we assume the top 5 are McEichel then Hanistrome then Marner. Crouse is almost sure to go in the next couple of picks. Then the next cluster, 7-11 seems to be:

 

Barzal, Rantanen, Werenski*, Provorov, Zacha. All good picks.

 

But that is me forming my opinion on internet research. Our scouts and GM will make the right move which will almost certainly be different than my advice.

 

 

*fixed for Krule (Werenski is generally ranked above Kylington pretty consistently).

Edited by remkin

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I read all of those last night night Remkin. I can't believe you have the fortitude to put all of it in writing. God bless you.

The only correction I would make is that the guy who had Kylington up so high is an extreme outlier.

That spot should go to Warenski, who almost always shows up around the #8 or so pick.

Kylington is usually ranked out of the top ten.

As I side note, for what it is worth (which is nothing) I was looking at a poll on HF-Boards from a month ago that asked Leafs-fans who they would draft out of Strome, Marner, and Hanifin.

The result:

Strome: 130

Marner: 98

Hanifin: 88

Again, take it for what it's worth (hint: nothing). I don't know too much about the boards over there, or if their is any pro-Canadian bias. Also, they admittedly seem less knowledgeable about Hanifin.

If it is a Leafs board, then we should just probably take how they rank them and flip it. :)

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Fixed it Krule, you are right, should have been Werenski, not Kylington.

 

I think I have found an acutal trade down that would work: Columbus at #8. They have two early second round picks: #34 (from Toronto), and #38 (theirs). The math would be very close for them to give us their own #38 pick for the right to move up from 8 to 5. It is very close to exactly right, w/ a whisker advantage to us. I'd push for #34 though, maybe toss them one of our extra late rounder picks to make it #34. (Ironically, we'd go up for #34 and just stay at the podium and pick again at #35).

 

This really could happen. They might want Marner or Crouse (or Hanifin if he's there). And they have two high second rounders, so giving up one, still leaves them a full draft.

 

We still get to pick from some very very nice players at 8 and get two high second rounders, which in this draft are like late first rounders in most drafts.

 

With allowance for the relative depth of this draft, it would be like getting 3 first rounders in a normal year, then we get 2 actual first rounders next year.

 

I think I still want the best player available at 5, but in this particular draft year, it would be tempting.

 

 

Philly at 7 has Tampa Bay's first round pick. It appears that pick will be #27-30.

But just giving that pick to move up from 7 to 5 is an overpay for them. Still, there could be a sweetener from us in that deal.

 

But the Columbus thing? That really makes sense.

Edited by remkin

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I agree, if thats what he is...but also Marner is a game changer too, so personally I don't do it. But while it may all be talk Francis did mention trading down. But in general those trades are unusual as most GMs just walk up and make their pick. Partly, I think because of the parts having to come together. With Columbus the parts are there at least.

 

But again, me, I just take Hanifin, Strome or Marner. If we have a hankering for Crouse, we would have to just take him, because it seems unlikely he's still there at 8.

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It might work, but IMO, a very dumb move if a franchise defenseman is sitting there at 5.

 

Even if we could trade down and still get the next Boychuk? :P

Edited by LakeLivin

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What we know.  McDavid and Eichel go 1 and 2.

 

What I think.  Arizona takes one of Hanifin or Strome.  If they take Hanifin, I see Toronto taking Strome.  That leaves Marner and Crouse as likely pics for GMRF.  My gut tells me that he takes Crouse because his game and skills are probably a better bet to work in the NHL than Marner's.  If Arizona takes Strome, I see Toronto taking Marner.  That leaves Hanifin and Crouse, and I see GMRF taking Hanifin and shoring up the defense for years with Faulk, Fleury, and Hanifin. 

 

I know some want Marner, and his scoring is enticing.  With any of Hanifin, Marner, and Crouse, the Canes are going to get a quality player.  I'd much rather be talking about the Canes play in the playoffs than this crap once again.

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What we know.  McDavid and Eichel go 1 and 2.

 

What I think.  Arizona takes one of Hanifin or Strome.  If they take Hanifin, I see Toronto taking Strome.  That leaves Marner and Crouse as likely pics for GMRF.  My gut tells me that he takes Crouse because his game and skills are probably a better bet to work in the NHL than Marner's.  If Arizona takes Strome, I see Toronto taking Marner.  That leaves Hanifin and Crouse, and I see GMRF taking Hanifin and shoring up the defense for years with Faulk, Fleury, and Hanifin. 

 

I know some want Marner, and his scoring is enticing.  With any of Hanifin, Marner, and Crouse, the Canes are going to get a quality player.  I'd much rather be talking about the Canes play in the playoffs than this crap once again.

 

According to recent rumors/reports, apparently Arizona's front office told Hanifin's agent that they wouldn't pass up on him if they had the third overall selection.  Same report said the Leafs would probably prefer Marner over Strome.  The best case scenario for Carolina is if they somehow ended up with Strome.  With the recent defensive acquisitions and the declining of our top guys, a #1 Center is exactly what this team could use moving forward.

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So that gives us like 5   centers??? So, if Canes pick Strome,   Estaal moves??   Just wondering, where you are going with this :)

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If Hanafin is gone, deal with  Nj, too get Rantanen???  HE IS BIG! NJ throws a player in, to jump to 5, just some thoughts to throw out there.

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Ok, after looking through some  notes on Marner, he will  go to net, unlike Skins..

 

Things like this is why it is so hard to project what will happen at the NHL level.  Going to the net against boys is a bit different from going to the net against men.  Skinner used to get in there some, and then he got his bell rung a few times too many and has become a perimeter player.

 

I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Things like this is why it is so hard to project what will happen at the NHL level.  Going to the net against boys is a bit different from going to the net against men.  Skinner used to get in there some, and then he got his bell rung a few times too many and has become a perimeter player.

 

I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision.

 

Ah, but if you were making the decision at least you'd have the in depth information that we're lacking (full scouting reports, loads of video tape, combine results, etc.) That's why, although I feel free to put forth opinions for fun, I'll defer to whatever fully informed decision the Canes brass ultimately makes.

:cheers:

Edited by LakeLivin

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So that gives us like 5   centers??? So, if Canes pick Strome,   Estaal moves??   Just wondering, where you are going with this :)

 

We have 4 or 5 centers, but none of them are #1 centers.  Eric at this point is a #2, but going forward he'll probably move to the wing.  Lindholm should stay at wing, as should Skinner.  Also, Dylan Strome is the BIG player all you guys seem to want, has been known to throw his weight around, and will probably fill out around 230lbs.

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Ah, but if you were making the decision at least you'd have the in depth information that we're lacking (full scouting reports, loads of video tape, combine results, etc.) That's why I feel free to put forth opinions for fun but will defer to whatever fully informed decision the Canes brass ultimately makes.

:cheers:

 

Yep, but they may be to the point of too much information by now. 

 

I do a little car restoration stuff, and I bet mining through all the info is like getting a car ready to paint.  You can sand and work forever, and you will always find an imperfection somewhere.  Eventually you get to the point where you say "It's good enough" and quit.  At what point are they just chasing their tails?

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Well, jury still out on EStaal, jmo, as a center.... Strome is big, thats what we need... yes,a  tough decision..

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Yep, but they may be to the point of too much information by now. 

 

I do a little car restoration stuff, and I bet mining through all the info is like getting a car ready to paint.  You can sand and work forever, and you will always find an imperfection somewhere.  Eventually you get to the point where you say "It's good enough" and quit.  At what point are they just chasing their tails?

 

I'd guess prolly not till after the combine and actual face to face interviews . . .

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super_dave, I'm in this boat with you on Marner. As convincing as arguments on here have been regarding the different style of play that Marner brings vs Skins, nevertheless, hopefully this team particularly has learned its lesson of small players going to the net to be hammered by their larger peers. Surely, many on here can, and have pointed out examples of several slight players, eg- Marty St Louis, Patrick Kane and our own Ray Whitney who've successfully avoided the dreaded C condition, but as a low budget team, do we have that luxury to risk a #5 pick being neutralized by a risk like that?

 

No, IMHO, this team has suffered too often from not being able to consistently ice our true Top 6, which would surely be where Marner would fit. Either this team needs to develop the fortitude to not allow, as a group, liberties to be taken with our slighter players, or RF needs to shoot for Strome( hopefully), Raatenen, or Crouse.

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Personally I think it is self evident that none of us are true experts. I guess it's nice to keep reminding each other of that, but the whole point of this board is for fans to delve into issues facing the team and kick things around. To avoid the constant reminders in posts that none of us are in the locker room or paid scouts, I have added my disclaimer.

 

Like just about every topic we discuss, we are not qualified to make definitive statements. Luckily, we are not the GM. (We're not are we? Are any of you Ron Francis? Just checking). So we discuss and opine and it generally still enriches our experience as fans. Espcially those of us still here now of all times, must feel this way, or why come in here when nothing is happening? The only thing happening is conjecture. So have at it.

 

While obviously frustrating at points, this conversation about the draft pick really is interesting because the choices are probalby pretty stark. The pick will address one need only. So which need get's adressed? It is the first, critical move in this year's offseason (or a trade related to it might be).

 

Do we address a near decade long concern of getting bigger and tougher? Crouse.

Do we build from the back out? Hanifin, or even Werenski or Provorov.

Do we address the lack of elite scorers and #27 in the league in goals? Marner.

Are we not overly impressed with the compromises that Marner or Crouse might be, and trade down? Probably get an early second round pick in addition to our own?

Are we shell shocked by what seems to have happened to Skinner?

 

Do we take the best player available? Likely Marner. Or do we take the biggest, toughest guy with upside: Crouse? Most teams probabably take Marner, but Crouse seems to fit our coach and is a big instant move to bigger and tougher that so many want? Is he Lucic? Is he Nash? Or his he a third liner?

 

These are all very different moves, and to me, they alll make perfect sense in diffent ways:

 

Hanifin: Most cup teams have a truely elite dman, and ideally at least 3 very very good dmen. He is generally accepted to be that. I have high hopes for Fleury, but dmen don't always work out. With McKeown, Fluery and Hanifin, we have a pretty good chance of adding two good dmen to go w/ Faulk. Fleury and Hanifin, while far from bruisers, are at least big guys.

 

Crouse: This team has had size and toughness issues for years. We are full of guys reluctant or just plain not willing to go to the dirty areas that so many coaches insist are the key to winning in the NHL. Add a couple of gritty 3rd liners and a gritty UFA Dman, and Crouse can address a lot of thosse big, tough, grit issues, but can skate and score.

 

Marner: There are only so many elite scorers in the NHL. The Canes simply cannot get them as UFA's unless they come with Semin sized baggage. Scoring is even harder to come by lately. Few guys can create offense. Don't get too Boychuked by the size issue. This is not a guy reached for in the mid round of an average draft, or even at #7. This is a guy with Patrick Kane skill, who might be a legit #1 pick in a different draft year. Skinner, Boychuk, Murphy? Not even close. He has ppg written on him. He has, "watch this guy, he's a magician" labled on him. Like Kane, you just can't keep your eyes off of him. But he is not a big guy.

 

Others: We could trade down to say #8. We should pick up a very early second rounder, similar to a late first rounder in another year, and still get: Provorov, Werenski, (still the #2 and #3 dmen in this draft), or Rantanen (skilled hands, big body), Barzal (first line center upside). Want to fill the cupboard? This is the year to pick up a high second rounder. There is an outstanding chance that at least one of our second rounders would be a seriously good player, and possibly both. Add in two first rounders next year, and maybe more w/ trades, and McKeon and suddenly we got prospects and a system full of potential. (And Franicis hinted he was open to it).

 

Anyway, all of these picks and moves make sense in their own way. To be honest, I think I can really get behind any of them.

 

My feeling as of now: Take Hanifin or Strome if they fall. Otherwise take Marner. Most think Hanifin is your elite dman. With Faulk and Fluery we could have the best defense in the NHL. Oustide of that, I go to a lot of games. I like skill  and scoring. I like to see something special happen. Elite scores also sell tickets, which we could use. That's just me though, any of the moves described might be the right one. I could be wrong.

Edited by remkin

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