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2015 NHL Entry Draft

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I took a look at the site Invisible linked as far as the Canes historical draft picks.  The "draft success" criteria (NHL Player: 200 NHL Games Played by Draft Year + 5 or 100 GP for players who have not yet reached Draft year +5) is so rough it doesn't distinguish between a Pavel Datsyuk and a Daniel Winnik.  Too rough for me to make any conclusions about the Canes "success rate" in rounds 1 and 2, which is shown as only slightly below the league average.  But what does really does jump out are rounds 3 and on.  The Canes are shown as having 0 players drafted after the 2nd round as being a "success". Can that be right???

 

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/Home/Team

 

edit:  either the data is wrong or they're using an undefined timeframe I can't figure out.

Edited by LakeLivin

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The Canes are shown as having 0 players drafted after the 2nd round as being a "success". Can that be right???

 

Yep, and one of the main reasons this organization is in the spot it is currently in.  You honestly have to go back to the Nic Wallin era to find any success beyond the 2nd round.  The deeper you get into the draft, it's obviously harder to have success.  Eventually, the blind squirrel effect should kick in though.

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I think Josef Vasicek and Erik Cole might disagree with being called unsuccessful.

 

They were both drafted in 1998 which makes me wonder if the site isn't including data back that far.  The table below the graph counts 9 Canes 3rd round picks and 10 4th round picks, so I don't know what they're including.  They say the site is beta so it may be awhile before we can trust it's accuracy. 

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I think Josef Vasicek and Erik Cole might disagree with being called unsuccessful.

 

The fact that we have to go back to Wallin, Vasicek, and Cole is troubling.

 

Also does Bellemore count as a success?

 

Bellemore and Terry are fringe NHLers (IMO) and may not really be "successes".

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There is no doubt that we have not shown any true hits with late round draft picks lately. On the other hand overall our 1st and 2nd round picks have been overall pretty good.

 

The question I always have is exactly how common is it for other teams to hit on late round picks?

 

I have read and posted over the years the stat that only 12% of all players picked round 3 and later make 200 NHL games. That is, a team's entire draft round 3 and after have a combined 12% chance of producing a 200 game NHL player.  If true, it would suggest that a team should have at least a 200 NHL game late rounder once every 8 years. But clearly there will be a lot of variability there. Missing 10 or even 12 straight years could easily be chance.

 

But that is just a 200 game career. To find a Pavel Datsuk is even rarer. But what a difference it makes. Detroit is clearly one of the best at it, but even they have had long stretches of misses. But hit on Datsuk (6th round) and Zetterberg (7th round) and you have years and years of return.

 

We may be closer to average than it seems, due to widespread lack of success, but we are clearly not near the top, where we should aspire to be. It also certainly would seem logical that the size and quality of the scouting staff would be increasingly important the later in the draft you go.

Edited by remkin

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Rem, if 12% of all the Canes 3rd round or later draft choices from 2001-2013 had an NHL career, that would be about 8.  There were 64 draft choices lower than the 2nd round during that time.  I stopped at 2013 because those guys haven't had time to make it yet.   I think what we are seeing is a little more than a dry stretch.

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Given our poor history with 3rd round and beyond...do any of you think we could work out something with the Wings for their 1st by packaging our second and third and maybe fourth? Here is an interesting article that suggest they might be willing to deal for more picks.

 

HockeyWriters

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Rem, if 12% of all the Canes 3rd round or later draft choices from 2001-2013 had an NHL career, that would be about 8.  There were 64 draft choices lower than the 2nd round during that time.  I stopped at 2013 because those guys haven't had time to make it yet.   I think what we are seeing is a little more than a dry stretch.

 

I had to think on this one for a minute, but I think you are correct. It was 261 out of 2000 in that study. So that is 26 per year league wide. So should be about 9 per decade per team, so you are right. 2001 - 2011 should have been 9, but the back end will not have had time to get to 200 and also some make the league late. Still, should have been at LEAST 6-7 that did it or are clearly on track to do it to be anywhere near the mean.

Edited by remkin

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Given our poor history with 3rd round and beyond...do any of you think we could work out something with the Wings for their 1st by packaging our second and third and maybe fourth? Here is an interesting article that suggest they might be willing to deal for more picks.

 

HockeyWriters

 

Welcome to the board. Francis has said he might be willing to trade down but not sure this was his scenario.  I would consider it. We would have two number one picks and options to keep, swap, or get would open up. But the draft is a mystery to me. I admire all those here who follow it but for the life of me I can't figure out what we are going to do.

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Considering only RF's first two drafts, Lucas Wallmark was thought to be a steal in the 4th last year, and Brett Pesce (3rd, 2013) was UNH's best player this past season.  He will begin his pro career in Charlotte next season. 

 

Then there is Trevor Carrick (2012, 4th), who by all accounts is making great strides in Charlotte, and has that nasty edge many here long for.

 

Hopefully, these are signs our drafting is improving.  Now we need to go find an AHL coach that can help develop these guys.

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I think RF understands the importance of drafting more than JR. JR handed out draft choices like Haloween candy in trades, and even more so when he wanted to dump a player. Instead of putting a player in Charlotte and paying them, he'd give some team a third rounder to do that for him. He also loved to hand out 2nd's for other "never quite made it" players rather than scout and select a player.

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Considering only RF's first two drafts, Lucas Wallmark was thought to be a steal in the 4th last year, and Brett Pesce (3rd, 2013) was UNH's best player this past season.  He will begin his pro career in Charlotte next season. 

 

Then there is Trevor Carrick (2012, 4th), who by all accounts is making great strides in Charlotte, and has that nasty edge many here long for.

 

Hopefully, these are signs our drafting is improving.  Now we need to go find an AHL coach that can help develop these guys.

I mentioned this earlier, I heard that the UNH was a different team when Pesce was out and when he returned.

I believe Carrick dropped the gloves six times last year and he's not a huge guy. He was also described as "Charlotte's best defenseman" last year.

I read that Wallmark is playing ok, but that he needs to work on his skating (like Rask did). The problem is that he was only getting very limited ice-time on his team in Sweden. Hopefully he comes to North America and gets more minutes. Karlsson may also come to Raleigh next year and needs more ice-time.

Looking forward to tracking the progress of these guys along with Fleury, McKeowan, McGinn, etc..

Interested to see who will take over in Charlotte, hopefully it will be someone that shares Peter's philosophy and is successful in developing our players.

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I mentioned this earlier, I heard that the UNH was a different team when Pesce was out and when he returned.

I believe Carrick dropped the gloves six times last year and he's not a huge guy. He was also described as "Charlotte's best defenseman" last year.

I read that Wallmark is playing ok, but that he needs to work on his skating (like Rask did). The problem is that he was only getting very limited ice-time on his team in Sweden. Hopefully he comes to North America and gets more minutes. Karlsson may also come to Raleigh next year and needs more ice-time.

Looking forward to tracking the progress of these guys along with Fleury, McKeowan, McGinn, etc..

Interested to see who will take over in Charlotte, hopefully it will be someone that shares Peter's philosophy and is successful in developing our players.

 

Don't forget Tolchinsky.  He's old enough to play in Charlotte next season.  I'd love to get an accurate update on his height & weight.  A couple sites currently list him at 5'9" 170 lbs.  Hopefully he's at least that.

 

SMURF, SMURF, SMURF!!!

Edited by LakeLivin

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Don't forget Tolchinsky.  He's old enough to play in Charlotte next season.  I'd love to get an accurate update on his height & weight.  A couple sites currently list him at 5'9" 170 lbs.  Hopefully he's at least that.

 

SMURF, SMURF, SMURF!!!

 

I forgot who said it, I think it was Lindholm during his rookie season, that the players on the Checkers don't play as a team, but a group of individuals.  Hopefully that'll change once we get a new coach there.

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Noah Hanifin

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=177710

 

Ranked #3 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #5 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #3 by Future Considerations
Ranked #3 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #3 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters) - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=177710#sthash.7xQBbRCB.dpuf

 

 

Hanifin is a smooth-skating defender with good size and acceleration who can generate some offense from the blueline but is also solid defensively. Although not a truly physical defenseman, he does not shy away form contact and will initiate it when necessary. Hanifin also has leadership qualities that could make NHL captain material down the road. Overall, he is an elite defender with few holes in hisgameicon1.png.

 

All around good dman.  This is my second on my wishlist of who I'd prefer the Hurricanes end up drafting after Strome.  Similar to the Provorov profile, with Hanifin, Carolina can field a legit top line defense for the first time maybe ever.  Also, I think it would be pretty cool to have a top line of American-born dmen.  I don't think any team can say they have had that.

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Noah Hanifin

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=177710

 

Ranked #3 by Hockeyprospect.com

Ranked #5 by ISS Hockey

Ranked #3 by Future Considerations

Ranked #3 by McKeen's Hockey

Ranked #3 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters) - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=177710#sthash.7xQBbRCB.dpuf

 

 

Hanifin is a smooth-skating defender with good size and acceleration who can generate some offense from the blueline but is also solid defensively. Although not a truly physical defenseman, he does not shy away form contact and will initiate it when necessary. Hanifin also has leadership qualities that could make NHL captain material down the road. Overall, he is an elite defender with few holes in hisgameicon1.png.

 

All around good dman.  This is my second on my wishlist of who I'd prefer the Hurricanes end up drafting after Strome.  Similar to the Provorov profile, with Hanifin, Carolina can field a legit top line defense for the first time maybe ever.  Also, I think it would be pretty cool to have a top line of American-born dmen.  I don't think any team can say they have had that.

 

I am conflicted when it comes to Hanifin and Provorov. Hanifin's style probably compliments Faulk's style best, so they would make a better top-pairing. However, I think Provorov will have a more immediate impact and may even be the better of the two down the line. Either way, though, I'd rather have these two over Strome. I know Strome is big and scored a lot of points this year (even when McDavid was out), but his skating is a bit slow and he just looked average in the few OHL playoff games that I've seen. At the fifth pick, if it is Strome that is left between Marner, Hanifin and Strome...I would consider trading back a few spots to pass on him if I can get more picks or a high level prospect. The other two I'd just take, but Strome...

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Mathew Barzal

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310

 

Ranked #17 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #8 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #11 by Future Considerations
Ranked #10 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #11 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters) - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310#sthash.GXSeupNk.dpuf

 

"Matthew Barzal is an offensive forward with very good skating abilities. Has tremendous puck-handling and is poised with the puck, while looking for the perfect pass-option using his strong vision. Owns an excellent wrist shot with a remarkable release. Barzal reads the plays well, looking for interceptions and is not afraid to block shots, playing a reliable two-way game. A complete player with strong hockey sense." (by Rafik Soliman, April 2015) 

- See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310#sthash.GXSeupNk.dpuf

 

To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to this guy because he was never low enough in the rankings to where I felt the Hurricanes would draft him.  He does have some flash to his game as seems to be a good set-up man, but I think all of the other prospects I've listed so far are better suited for the Hurricanes at this time.  I'm willing to bet he goes outside the top 10.

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Krule mentioned McGinn. I have made no secret that I have a lot of hope for McGinn. A great example of a not huge guy who plays the way people say we need to play. He did not put up big points last year, but apparently did everything else well, and was mentioned as Charlotte's most NHL ready forward late last year. Kind of wish he'd have gotten a late year taste of NHL, but probably not a huge deal that he didn't. I would not be surprised if he roughly follows the Rask timeline a bit. Rask blew doors off in preseason and then J. went down and the rest is history. McGinn may not get that exact same break, but I think he makes great use of the offseason and opens some eyes in camp.

 

This gets me onto one thing we have at least gotten better at: second rounders. It is probably oversimplistic, but the first and second rounders are mostly on scout's radars, but the guys around that first round pick are easier to focus on. Finding that good second rounder is trickier, but one would think even a smallish scouting staff could still do it (as compared to the 3rd and after rounders) and we have been doing much better there. BTW, LA has been pretty good at drafting and traded a nice asset to move up in the second round to grab McKeown, so even though he dropped back a little last year, that's still a good prospect.

 

From 1997-2005 the Canes had zero second round picks make 200 NHL games (the highlight was Micheal Zigomanis who ironically made 197 games). The only one even close (outside of Zigomanis) is Justin Peters, and for goalies, it is much harder, and 100 games is a better gauge, and he is still playing technically w/ 80 games, but even Peters was 2004, and not many would say he has been a major success.

 

But, starting with 2006 ironically, our second round picking got much better. In general 25% of second rounders have an NHL career. Thus one in four is the expected average success rate drafting them. Of course higher in the round does matter, as does draft year strength (which is why that Columbus trade down could be an interesting move to get two very high second rounders in a very deep draft, but I digress).

 

2006: Jamie McBain. Jamie has hit 301 NHL games, and though not my favorite dman, was converted into Sekera. He is a hit.

2007: No pick. (Though our 3rd rounder Bowman is at 179 games, though may not hit 200).

2008: Zac Dalpe: at 117 currently. Probably doesn't make it, but might and at 117 is much better than all but one picked before 2005.

2009: Brian Doumalin: Too soon to tell. The throw-in in the J trade, he did play a few games for the Pens this year.

2010: Justin Falk: Mega hit. Already at 262 games and clearly a budding star.

2011: Victor Rask: Hit. Probalby big hit. At 80 games but clearly on his way past 200.

 

2012: Two pIcks: McGinn and DeGuiseppe. Too soon to tell. Neither scored big last year, but that was an awful Charlotte team and it was both guy's first year pro. One of the nice things about two second rounders, one success would be good. I really like McGinn's chances to hit 200 NHL games. DeGuiseppe? Probably not, but always thought to have serious scoring chops has underperformed since college, could easily find his game, but my money is on McGinn.

 

2013: No pick. (third rounder Pesce is looking good though).

 

2014: Nedeljkovic. Francis' first second round pick. Taken high at 37. Lots of upside, but time will tell. He will turn pro this year and should start to show what he has.

 

So, after 2011 it's too soon to tell. Personally I really like McGinn and Nedljokic's chances (goalies need to hit a lower bar, say 100 games), but it is too soon to tell.

 

So from 1997-2005: We went 0-7 in the second round. If you want to count Zigomanis, we went 1/7 (14%) but it was not pretty.

From 2006-2011: We went 3 for 5 (but could get to 5/5 if Dalpe and Doumalin get there). And it was a SOLID 3/5. 60% vs 25% average.

 

IF McGinn and Nedeljkovic and say Doumalin, hit there mark, and say deguissepe and Dalpe do not, then from 2006-present, we will have gone 6 for 8 on our last 8 second rounders. I do not think that is crazy. That would be 75% vs 25% league average and 0% from 97-05.

 

So at least there's that.

Edited by remkin

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Mikko Rantanen

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=91186

 

Ranked #19 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #9 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #7 by Future Considerations
Ranked #12 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #1 by NHL Central Scouting (EU Skaters) - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=91186#sthash.iXGLFZUV.dpuf

 

"An exceptionally talented playmaker and always a consistent threat on the ice; Rantanen is a combination of elite-level hockey sense, silky smooth hands, and nimble skating. Needs to improve his shot and physical play, as he doesn't take advantage of his size in many situations. All-in-all, an intelligent, big-bodied forward that oozes skill." (Curtis Joe, EP 2014)

- See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=91186#sthash.iXGLFZUV.dpuf

 

I never gave this kid a full scout report, but the criticism still remains.  Ultimately, he seems like a bigger version of Lindholm, and I'm sure he's going to make a fine NHL player one day.  Having said that, there are people on this board that seem to want him drafted purely because of his size, and there are multiple scouting reports that say he doesn't utilize his size like he should.  That is just like every big player that's currently on our team besides Lindholm.  Like Barzal, I just think Strome, Hanifin, Marner, Provorov, Crouse, Zacha are all better prospects at this point for the Hurricanes.

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Mathew Barzal

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310

 

Ranked #17 by Hockeyprospect.com

Ranked #8 by ISS Hockey

Ranked #11 by Future Considerations

Ranked #10 by McKeen's Hockey

Ranked #11 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters) - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310#sthash.GXSeupNk.dpuf

 

"Matthew Barzal is an offensive forward with very good skating abilities. Has tremendous puck-handling and is poised with the puck, while looking for the perfect pass-option using his strong vision. Owns an excellent wrist shot with a remarkable release. Barzal reads the plays well, looking for interceptions and is not afraid to block shots, playing a reliable two-way game. A complete player with strong hockey sense." (by Rafik Soliman, April 2015) 

- See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=186310#sthash.GXSeupNk.dpuf

 

To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to this guy because he was never low enough in the rankings to where I felt the Hurricanes would draft him.  He does have some flash to his game as seems to be a good set-up man, but I think all of the other prospects I've listed so far are better suited for the Hurricanes at this time.  I'm willing to bet he goes outside the top 10.

Barzal started the season quite slow due to injury and came on late. One mock drafter claims only McDavid played bettter the last two months of the season. Teams need centers. Could go top 10, but this is a very deep draft. But I agree #5 seems a stretch. From what I can tell Barzal is a very slick plamaking center, a pass first guy who excited proponents call "the next Claude Giroux". For fun, he showed up in the top 5 on two of the last 7 mock drafts listed on DC sports. (at 4 and 5). That said, his composite ranking is outside the top 10. Most other years he'd be a lock for top 10 though.

 

This team needs a slick, pure playmaker. And he is a two way center. But he is not physical and not strong on the boards, and has a tendency to be too fancy. Not the prototype many seem to want.

 

Barzal to me is a guy to put on a list of available guys if Franicis actually trades down.

 

Now again, I don't do that. I walk up there and pick whomever is still on the board of Hanifin, Strome and Marner.

 

Just to keep my theme alive, here is one thing Craig Button said fo Marner, that might offset the size vs. injury question a bit:

 

His creativity sees the enormous potential - both seen and unseen - in every play and his elusiveness allows him to remain at arm’s length of his opponents.

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I am conflicted when it comes to Hanifin and Provorov. Hanifin's style probably compliments Faulk's style best, so they would make a better top-pairing. However, I think Provorov will have a more immediate impact and may even be the better of the two down the line. Either way, though, I'd rather have these two over Strome. I know Strome is big and scored a lot of points this year (even when McDavid was out), but his skating is a bit slow and he just looked average in the few OHL playoff games that I've seen. At the fifth pick, if it is Strome that is left between Marner, Hanifin and Strome...I would consider trading back a few spots to pass on him if I can get more picks or a high level prospect. The other two I'd just take, but Strome...

 

My Wishlist in Order:

 

1. Dylan Strome

2. Noah Hanifin

3. Mitch Marner

4. Ivan Provorov

5. Pavel Zacha

6. Zach Werenski

7. Mikko Rantanen

 

I've read Strome is struggling a bit, but he's been consistent all year, so I'll cut him some slack.  He'll still be a good prospect.

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Don't forget Tolchinsky.  He's old enough to play in Charlotte next season.  I'd love to get an accurate update on his height & weight.  A couple sites currently list him at 5'9" 170 lbs.  Hopefully he's at least that.

 

SMURF, SMURF, SMURF!!!

I watched a playoff game between Eerie and the Soo Greyhounds and Tolchinsky was by far the most dangerous Greyhound. His skill-level is really impressive. He didn't look much bigger to me but he battled hard.

Ritchie was disappointing, he looked like a big-body that was slow and behind the play.

Strome's hockey-IQ and skills were apparent, but he is slow. He has drawn criticism for this, particularly during the playoffs which some speculate may lower his draft stock.

Nurse was a mixed bag and hard to read, he basically shadowed McDavid the whole game so he was playing with a bit of a leash attached. He's a big-body who can skate but still looks a bit raw.

Of course this was just one game but it was interesting to see some of these guys play.

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Good stuff Krule. With the success of Johny Hockey and Tlyer Johnson, and with a Gerbe on the team, one can't write off Tolchinksy at all. If ever there were a guy who needs to get out of Junior hockey and see what he can do vs. men, it is him.

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