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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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My Wishlist in Order:

 

1. Dylan Strome

2. Noah Hanifin

3. Mitch Marner

4. Ivan Provorov

5. Pavel Zacha

6. Zach Werenski

7. Mikko Rantanen

 

I've read Strome is struggling a bit, but he's been consistent all year, so I'll cut him some slack.  He'll still be a good prospect.

 

That's a good list IMHO. If one is willing to throw in Crouse and Barzal, then your 4-7 plus them would create a pool of uys available at #8 if we traded down.

 

Again, I don't do it. I think that the Strome-Hanifin-Marner trio is too elite to pass on.

 

But many aspects of the idea of a trade w/ Columbus fit:

 

The trade would be our 5th for their 8th and #34 (from Toronto).

 

1. They are already built solid. Many think that even without addition, just injury recovery puts them in the playoffs. Adding an elite creative high scoring forward would be very very tempting for them.

 

2. They have THREE second rounders. So they can give up either one and still have a very nice bottom half of the draft. They actually still get one very high second rounder (theirs is #38).

 

3. For us, if ever there is a draft where the top 1/3 of the second round is full of "first rounders" it is this one. For a team that wants to restock that is not a bad move.

 

4. This only makes sense if Francis is not sold on Marner or Strome or Hanifin. I think it only makes sense as an "if X player is there, we do the deal" move. ie. If Marner is the guy left, we make the move." understanding w/ Columbus.

 

At #8 there are SERIOSLY good players left in this draft. And again this is the draft where the chances of getting a NHL player at #35 is very good and picking #34 and #35 in this draft is pretty good propect building.

 

Just to be even more crystal clear than ever, I think Columbus would jump on this in a heartbeat. It makes so much sense for them it hurts. But for us I say don't do it. Thankfully we did not get bumped down in the lottery and still find ourselves in the last position of tier 2 elite potential #1 pick other year guys and they are worth more than even an early second rounder. (Now if we get 2 of Columbus's second rounders.....)_

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One other way of looking at the trade down thing is this.

 

The trade from 5 to 8 cost based on the point system I've posted is basically one of Columbus' high second rounders.

 

BUT this is a different year. IF we assume that any of Hanifin, Strome or Marner could be true #1 picks in a different year, one could look more at the "drop off". So assume that Marner is the #1 pick, the count down 3 spots (5 to 8 equals 1 to 4). And project that we have the #1 pick and Columbus has the #4 pick.

 

4 to 1 costs 46 points

 

5 to 8 costs 9 points.

 

46 points is HUGE. That is equivelant to the #6 overall pick. That means that Columbus would have to have someone else's #6 pick and do a #6 pick AND their #8 pick, for the #5 pick.Now this is just an exercise. The #1 pick carries massive value. Let's say that the drop off is like say #2 to say #5 in most years: that is 20 points or the #23 pick.

 

I guess it really comes down to how much Francis values Marner/Hanifin/Strome vs the next tier. If he has the same concerns with these guys that one might have w/ Crouse or Werenski, etc, then a trade down could look good.

 

To ME, remkin, non expert, I do NOT do the 5 to 8 for the #34 pick.  I think the value is higher this year. More in beteween #1 to 4 and say 3 to 6 somewhere. Probably around the #20 pick. This is higher than the standard points graph (which rumor has it GM's do use). In fact, IF we say that due to this unusual draft year, the say Marner to Provorov drop is more akin to a typical draft year 2 to 5 drop, then the #20 pick is the price, but the other GM may not agree. But I think it should be.

 

Can Columbus meet that price? 20 points? They can. It would be BOTH of their high second rounders: #34 AND #38. That would be around 20 points. Now THAT would be worth looking at.

 

We get a VERY good player at #8, then pick THREE times in the first 8 second round picks of this very deep draft.

 

Would they do it? Well they do have yet a third second rounder, so they would still pick in the second, and Marner would be just what the doctor ordered for that team.....probably not, but it's not crazy.

Edited by remkin

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My Wishlist in Order:

1. Dylan Strome

2. Noah Hanifin

3. Mitch Marner

4. Ivan Provorov

5. Pavel Zacha

6. Zach Werenski

7. Mikko Rantanen

I've read Strome is struggling a bit, but he's been consistent all year, so I'll cut him some slack. He'll still be a good prospect.

I forgot to add Crouse. I'd rank him between Zacha and Werenski.

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Justto keep my theme alive, here is one thing Craig Button said fo Marner, that might offset the size vs. injury question a bit:

His creativity sees the enormous potential - both seen and unseen - in every play and his elusiveness allows him to remain at arm’s length of his opponents.

I admit to watching a lot of YouTube video of some of the top prospects (outside of McDavid and Eichel), and I have to say if the term "special" applies to anyone, it's Marner.

His ability to quickly move in all four directions is impressive, but it's one thing to be able to do it and another to know when to do it. He seems to make the most out of his agility.

The skating, stick-handling, creativity, shot, knowing where to find the soft spots in the defense/scoring areas, etc., it was all very impressive. I saw him doing things that most others just don't, or can't. He was making high-level plays while moving backwards.

He looks like an excellent passer with great vision (just look at his assist totals). He has been described as "unselfish" (the anti-Skinner).

I've even read that he watches tape of his opponents before games.

If his size doesn't become a factor, he's going to be a point-producer, there is just too much skill/offensive awareness there.

But then, that's the big "if."

******* I REALLY don't want to start a size debate again, and I'm not even saying Marner is my choice as our pick. *******

YouTube makes everyone look like a star and we are talking kids vs. kids here, but watching video back to back vs. others, I was just a bit blown away by his sheer amount of skill and mobility.

Is he soft? Does he play defense? Does he win board battles? Is he consistent game to game/shift to shift? I certainly don't know by watching YouTube videos.

Again *disclaimer*, I realize we are talking about highlights which only tells a very small part of the story.

Another *disclaimer*, obviously I am talking about forwards here, excluding defensemen for obvious reasons.

.

Edited by Kyrule

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Unfortunately, I just don't see both Arizona and Toronto passing on Marner. One of them will take the kid leaving either Strome or Hanifin to us....probably Strome. Just what we need, another center. I know, Marner is a "center" too, but he most likely will play wing in the NHL.

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Unfortunately, I just don't see both Arizona and Toronto passing on Marner. One of them will take the kid leaving either Strome or Hanifin to us....probably Strome. Just what we need, another center. I know, Marner is a "center" too, but he most likely will play wing in the NHL.

It seems like the consensus among mock-drafters is that we will have Marner available at #5, and may pass on him.

It also seems like most here would prefer Strome, Hanifin, Crouse, or others over Marner, but I can't say.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree either way, I'm just throwing out what mock-drafters are putting out there and the feeling I get here.

Welcome btw.

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It seems like the consensus among mock-drafters is that we will have Marner available at #5, and may pass on him.

It also seems like most here would prefer Strome, Hanifin, Crouse, or others over Marner, but I can't say.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree either way, I'm just throwing out what mock-drafters are putting out there and the feeling I get here.

Welcome btw.

 

Thanks!

 

Yeah, I've seen most of the mocks myself and I agree with your assessment of them...however, the mocks were pretty settled going into the draft two years ago with McKinnon/Jones, Jones/McKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nichushkin, Lindholm.... Then on Draft day Jones fell and Barkov jumped. Now, I think the first two selections are set in stone, but after that I think it is really going to depend on the personalities of the GM's selecting, their own draft boards, and team needs. I know everyone says draft BPA, and I agree with them, but if the scouts evaluate the three of them equally for their assumed positions in the NHL, then I could see the order shuffling quite a bit based on what each team needs.

 

I guess we'll just have to wait and see....only a month and a half to go.  :bangHead:

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Is he soft? Does he play defense? Does he win board battles? Is he consistent game to game/shift to shift? I certainly don't know by watching YouTube videos.

.

 

No, those things don't tend to make the highlights, but according to scouts, and reporters, the answers are yes, yes, and yes.

Edited by remkin

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I really can't claim to know enough about these prospects to have an opinion on any of them. If we go big, they better play big, and if we go small, they can't play small. Watching the playoffs, I see teams with a lot of size, physicality, and speed. The Canes could benefit from adding all three of those atributes.

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Unfortunately, I just don't see both Arizona and Toronto passing on Marner. One of them will take the kid leaving either Strome or Hanifin to us....probably Strome. Just what we need, another center. I know, Marner is a "center" too, but he most likely will play wing in the NHL.

Better center than LW imo.  Especially since Nash has to be questionable long term at this point and mgmt seems to want to move E to LW if they could.  We list a lot of centers, but seems like the position we were really overloaded at was LW. And we were very short at RW.  One good thing about Marner is that he's a right shot; if he moves to a wing it would likely be on the right side, where we need the help.  

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How good is Connor McDavid?  I was just looking at the playoff stats for McDavid and Dylan Strome, both centers for the Erie Otters (who just lost to the Oshawa Generals in the OHL finals). Strome seems to be a consensus choice for the 3rd overall pick in this years draft.  Keep in mind that McDavid sees the best of the opposing teams D.

 

                Games   Goals   Assists   Points    +-

McDavid:      20         21        28          49      +12

Strome:        20         10        12           22       +1

Edited by LakeLivin

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Talk about "rubbing salt into our wounds" Lake, thank you very much. So I guess this just leaves us with "chopped liver". Just when I thought this off season couldn't get any worse, it goes even further.

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I thought these two prospect rankings were pretty interesting:

 

HockeyWriters: author ranks top sixty prospects with analysis of first thirty. Here is a top 10 summary:

  1. McDavid
  2. Eichel
  3. Marner
  4. Provorov
  5. Strome
  6. Rantanen
  7. Werenski
  8. Hanifin
  9. Crouse
  10. Barzal

HockeyWriters Alternate: author ranks the top thirty and gives an explanation/analysis for each, with an "almost made it" ten players listed after the thirty. Here is a summary of the top ten:

  1. McDavid
  2. Eichel
  3. Strome
  4. Hanifin
  5. Marner
  6. Provorov
  7. Crouse
  8. Werenski
  9. Rantanen
  10. Barzal

Given this, and other prospect analysis I've seen, it seems like the prospect that gives us the lowest risk with also having a tremendous up side and likely to be available at our spot would be Provorov. Plus, he was a point per game producer in juniors, is big, meets one of our highest needs at defenseman, and is probably the most NHL ready player besides the top two. 

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Talk about "rubbing salt into our wounds" Lake, thank you very much. So I guess this just leaves us with "chopped liver". Just when I thought this off season couldn't get any worse, it goes even further.

 

I think that's more a nod to McDavid than a diss of Strome. He still scored over a point a game against the best teams in the OHL during the playoffs.  The numbers seem to indicate that McDavid has been called "generational" for good reason . . .

Edited by LakeLivin

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I've heard that Provorov is the most "NHL ready" of the defensive prospects.  But he's not as big as Hanifin (6'3") or Werenski (6'2").  Provorov is listed at 6' even and 200 lbs.  You've got to wonder if he's still got room to grow or if he just matured early. This is not an argument against Provorov, just articulating some of the issues that I'm sure the Canes are considering.   

Edited by LakeLivin

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Just funning win you Lake, I know you weren't, but just speaking for all no doubt in wishing the lottery balls worked in our favor just once. I'm comfortable that whoever Ron and company choose, we'll be getting a very nice player. Marner, Strome, Provorov, Hanafin or whoever, I'm set to purchase their jersey and yell for them. I'm just venting and wishing these playoffs would be done so the shape of next year's team could unfold.

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I thought these two prospect rankings were pretty interesting:

 

HockeyWriters: author ranks top sixty prospects with analysis of first thirty. Here is a top 10 summary:

  1. McDavid
  2. Eichel
  3. Marner
  4. Provorov
  5. Strome
  6. Rantanen
  7. Werenski
  8. Hanifin
  9. Crouse
  10. Barzal

HockeyWriters Alternate: author ranks the top thirty and gives an explanation/analysis for each, with an "almost made it" ten players listed after the thirty. Here is a summary of the top ten:

  1. McDavid
  2. Eichel
  3. Strome
  4. Hanifin
  5. Marner
  6. Provorov
  7. Crouse
  8. Werenski
  9. Rantanen
  10. Barzal

Given this, and other prospect analysis I've seen, it seems like the prospect that gives us the lowest risk with also having a tremendous up side and likely to be available at our spot would be Provorov. Plus, he was a point per game producer in juniors, is big, meets one of our highest needs at defenseman, and is probably the most NHL ready player besides the top two. 

 

First let me also welcome you aboard Min, you have already brought interesting stuff here, and this is no exception.

 

I always wonder who it is making these rankings and mocks on some of these sites. The guy who did the main rankings started out covering JR hockey and sounds like he still watches a lot of it.

 

He is not alone (Craig Button and others) in forming a small but growing dissenting group to Hanifin as the best D man in the draft and obvious top 5 choice. Reading scouts, reporters and mock drafters, Provorov, while in the minority does get serious love out there.

 

Of course I am both happy and nervous with his ranking Marner #3. This guy claims to have actually watched a lot of him, and what he writes does not suggest we'll even have a shot at him.

 

Other intersting thing is a relatively low opinion on Zacha as basically disinterested in playing the defensive end of the ice. (Neither of them has Zacha in their top 10).

 

After reading him, I again wonder about trading down. He has great things to say about Barzal, he likes Crouse (at 9), loves Rantanen, and Wersenski.

 

Again I start thinking about guys that could be there at #34/35 (both w/ a deal w/ say Columbus). I have no idea since it is harder to get good scouting opinions about second rounders, but a guy slated to go last in the first round well into "could go either way" and since these guys tend to only give opinions about first rounders, here's the guy he has pegged to go last:

 

30. Brandon Carlo – Tri-City Americans (WHL) – D

The mammoth 6’5″ defenseman, Brandon Carlo, rounds out the top 30. Carlo hasn’t even fully grown into his body yet, which means he’ll be even more menacing when he tops out at 200+ pounds. A prototypical shutdown defenseman, Carlo skates extraordinarily well for his size, uses his long reach to neutralize plays, and is a force in front of the net. At his peak, he has the potential to be a solid 2nd pairing shutdown defenseman.

 

You want to get big? Imagine this guy plus taking Crouse at #8?

 

Me? I take Barzal or Rantanen at #8 if we go that way.

 

So we trade down and get say Barzal or Rantanen at #8. Then say, Carlo is there at #34, then another solid, bigger forward at #35 (and maybe even #38 if we really get a good deal w/ Columbus).

 

Faulk, Fleury, McKeown, Carlo and our other prospects, plus the UFA Francis almost has to find this offseason, is still on track for a pretty sweet defense. Then Barzal (or Rantanen or Crouse) and our other early second rounder eventually add to our two first rounders next year...

 

 

But after all that, if he's there? Take Marner.

Edited by remkin

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The alternate ranking guy admitted to seeing less games and uses the rankings more, but did point out a couple of interesting things.

 

First, as Min mentioned, he loves Provorov and claims to have seen him play a bit.

 

Second, I did not realize that Lawson Crouse is on the very young end of the age curve. (Fleury was too though Crouse even more). This matters because he is almost a full year younger than some in the same draft. This and his lack of high end linemates for most of the year, could offset his lowish point production for so high in the draft.

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rem, I for one just love the "eternal optimism" you bring to this board! Much better during our 6th off season of golfing than the "fish that got away" that some regale us with(Lake I'm looking at you, haha).

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Thank Kjun.

 

Of course, I'm as frustrated as everyone else, and like many on here, I was there for every game of that magical 2006 run and again in 2009. I am so hungry for playoff hockey and a long term winning team it hurts. That's why after year after year of watching us climb up the draft board with meaningless late season wins I am all in on SRM once the playoffs are done, and this year for getting that last place spot, but in the end there was just no way we were beating out Buffalo for that anyway. But I know SRM mongering is not really always viewed as positive by everyone. So be it, that is over.

 

Anyway, this time of year is kind of bittersweet in terms of optimism. We are watching the elite teams play for the cup, but as we sit, there are now 26 other teams in their offseason, in several days it will be 28. But at least we get to pick #5. Would have been nice to get Eichel or McDavid, but this is a special year to be drafting highly, and oddly, we seem to be in the last spot in first non McEichel tier. We should get a special player to go with Fleury for the future.  And there just might be a really nice deal there if Columbus or say Philly really want to move up.

 

So I am optimistic about the draft (oh to have had LA's pick, but hey stay positive).

 

The core group optimism? Rask and Lindholm are the obvious ones, along with Faulk who it goes without saying. I really like the Swedes to seriously advance their games next year and that will help a lot.

 

Ward, if he stays will be solid and Khudobin will too. And while we're paying him too much and paid too much to get him, Jordan Staal is still a big net positive. Maybe he finally finds some offense.

 

We also have some nice supporting pieces with a good 4th line, and I think Gerbe bounces back and I like Nestrasil as a very good third liner.

 

The question marks to me are E and Skinner. (and of course Semin, who I have no idea what they'll do with).

 

The tough question, the one where optimism struggles is this one. The whole "additions and subtractions analysis". In the past I have felt that we were a team vastly undervalued by that analysis, and it is still tempting to think that, but the last two years have not proven that opinion. Semin, Skinner and E. all underpeformed expectations really for two years now, but last year went from bad to worse.

 

So if Francis makes no moves this offseason, just standing pat:

 

We field the same team minus Sekera plus improvments from the Swedes, then hope for Semin and Skinner to recover their games and some kind of patchwork defense....no, that simply won't fly.

 

So Francis has said that the first order of business is to shore up the defense. OK. Fleury is not ready. Probably none of the current defense draft picks are ready, though some claim Provorov might be. But really, at a minumum, Francis HAS to go out and at least roughly try to replace Sekera.

 

If he does, then we have last year's team plus any improvements that Semin, Skinner, and the Swedes might bring. Is that enough? I think most would say no. (It would be if we got max Semin and max potential Skinner, but that is a lot to hope for).

 

So what is this growing post saying? I am optimistic about the draft. We have some very good options. After that, I am hopeful.

 

Hopeful that Francis can accomplish a few key things for this upcoming year. But how he handles these things will be key:

 

1. UFA dman.

2. Do something with Semin even if that thing is to get him back to being productive.

3. Do something with Skinner even if that thing is getting HIM back on track.

4. Do something with E. even if that thing is a more reasonably priced contract sans NTC.

5. secondary UFA signings (budget pick up).

 

Just picking our alloted draft pick and finding a nice defensive UFA would be the bare minimum, but frankly disaapointing. I think Francis needs to put more stamp on this team THIS offseason. He does not have to do everything, but just waiting contracts out is not ideal. I want to see something more from Francis this summer. I am hopeful we will. Evaluation time is over. It's action time.

Edited by remkin

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I'd put a bit more emphasis on Nestrasil being a positive going forward. We only had him 1/2 a year last season and he's still only 24 years old.  I see him as being a very solid contributor going forward.  (there you go kjun, something positive for ya ^_^)

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In the end, Andersen's agent did his job.

 

Even though the reason made public for going back into the draft was the fear of being stuck behind Cam.

 

The Canes used a 7th round pick on the guy, so we really didn't get screwed.

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