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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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I'm still in the crowd for trading Skinner for a "fair" hockey trade.  I have no doubt Skinner is going to accomplish great feats in the league, but long term, does what his attributes coincide with the message being sent by Peters?  I don't think so.  Similar teams have traded similar talents like Skinner and got better from it (Winnipeg with Kane, Anaheim with Ryan).

 

I do expect Skinner to come back strong.  He's the player who's offseason training we hear about the most, and I think he takes his role very seriously.  However, even at the age 23, he's a veteran by definition, and I know from seeing him around that he's mostly close to the younger players on the team (mainly Lindholm & Murphy).  He needs to set the example for those players.  I would love if he's back next year, but wouldn't hate it if he weren't.

 

As far as Semin, I think it's best just to ride his contract out.  It's only three more years, and don't ask me why but I think he's more likely to bounce back into at least a 45-60pt player.

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So for some odd reason, occasionally I like to analyze the mock drafts. The DC sports data base makes it easy. I have looked for recent mocks that they have missed and am not finding any (though the SB Nation Minnesota writers are doing a one per day reveal, but are only on day two, and day three is where it matters for us).

 

Anyway, the intersting thing happening is the return to love for Hanifin in a big way, to go #3.

 

After the lottery the first 17 mock drafts had the #3 pick as:

 

Strome 9 (53%)

Hanifin 7 (41%)
Marner 1 (6%)

 

But basically starting in May, the next and most recent 8 mock drafts almost all line up for Hanifin back in #3:

 

Hanifin 8 (89%)

Strome 1 (11%)

 

Seems to have been a tendancy away, but now back to Hanifin as the overwhelming concensus #3 pick.

 

Of course these are just people guessing, but if true, seems to indicate that we will have either Strome or Marner available.

 

Then looking at the consensus Toronto pick at #4 it is Strome almost universally. Marner does get some votes at #4 but in all but two cases it is with Strome gone already. If one removes those Marner votes it is: 10-1 Strome.

 

So, there is a mock draft consensus building strongly around the top 4 of:

 

McDavid

Eichel

Hanifin

Strome

 

This of course leave us to decide on Marner vs "other".  Not to stir that up again, but at least the mock drafters are spelling that out as the decision we will face.

 

For what its worth, the mock drafts since the lotter have us on

 

Marner (9), Hanifin (5), Crouse (3), Zacha (2), Rantanen, Provorov, Barzal (1).

 

Since the run on Hanifin back at #3: (May):

 

Marner (6), Zacha, Provorov, Hanifin, Stome: 1.   Crouse: 0.

 

So really the mock drafts are currently pretty congealed on us on Marner.

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I hope you looked through those mocks a bit before you made your statistics, because some of the results published by that sight don't match up with the linked mock. For example: the current third one listed from breakthroughsports.com has us listed taking Zacha at the fifth, according to DCSportsDatabase. However, that is because the team selecting fifth, Philly, takes Zacha. We are the crazy team taking Kylington in the fourth spot according to the actual mock draft. McDavid is drafted by the Sabers at number one.  :screwy: If you used that mock...just throw that out.

 

Also, the mock from TodaysSlapshot on 4/29 has us taking Marner, not Barzal. Somehow the translation to the DCSportsDatabase just missed the 5th selection and bumped everyone else up a spot.

Edited by MinJaBen

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Min,

 

I generally do read them as the discussion is more interesting than the list. I actually threw out the breakthrough sports mock because it is not only an outlier, but it is listed twice with no changes in our part of the draft. The todays slapshot is a slide show that I can't get to work, but if they picked us on Marner, that just strengthens the point.

 

Most of the rest are correct though.

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Due to recent events with Toronto, at this point in time I think the Canes are going to get whoever Arizona passes on:  Strome or Hanifin.....

Edited by bluedevil58

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Due to recent events with Toronto, at this point in time I think the Canes are going to get whoever Arizona passes on:  Strome or Hanifin.....

 

Agreed, which is why this epic Marner debate is hilarious.  All the size vs skill debate will be moot, because if Arizona doesn't draft Marner, Toronto does.

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What recent events in Toronto are we talking about that indicate Marner will be selected?

I know there are ties with Hunter but beyond that did something else happen?

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Do you mean the hiring of Babcock? Is Babcock a Marner guy?

 

Did Toronto shut down their official message board? Can't seem to find it.

 

But this is what the most recent contributor wrote on their official site on who they Toronto would take at #4:

 

So, here’s the guess. The Coyotes will be tantalized by Marner’s skill and Strome’s overall game but the temptation to match Ekman-Larson who will be 24 when the season starts with a comparable defenceman will prove irresistible, especially since the club already has Dvorak.

 

That defenceman could be Provorov who netted a point a game in his rookie season but Hanifin’s tremendous upside, he was Boston College’s best defenceman at 17, means he will go at three.

 

The Leafs pick then becomes a tantalizing one. As one talent evaluator said, the biggest mistake made every year at the draft is overvaluing big slow players and undervaluing smaller faster ones. Marner or Strome. That seems to be the question. (remkin's boldening).

 

Marner would dazzle with William Nylander, of course, but Strome could eventually evolve into a towering first or second line pivot whose size could complement Nylander’s speed. Add the prospect of Andreas Johnson, a 20-year-old coming off another excellent season in the Swedish Elite League joining the Leafs and the team’s long-term prospects look rosier.

 

That kind of sounds like a coin flip.

 

One poll of fans on a discussion board came out:

 

Strome 78%

Marner 11%

Hanifin 11%

 

If there is reason to think Torono will go Marner with a classic center or #1 dman on the board and thinking otherwise is hilarious, please enlighten.

Edited by remkin

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On the idea of trading down, here is an article that discusses the Leafs outlook for doing it, but it also lists a table of draft swap trades over the years:

 

http://theleafsnation.com/2015/5/14/why-the-leafs-trading-down-at-the-draft-is-a-good-or-bad-idea

 

First, trades down or up are rare. Second, trading into or out of the top 5 is very rare: Ironcially the Canes did it:

 

There has only been one instance in recent years where someone holding a Top Five pick traded down on draft day, and that’s when Cliff Fletcher dealt the Leafs seventh overall, plus a second, and a third to move up two spots and select Luke Schenn in 2008. Before that it was 2004 when the Hurricanes dealt their 8th overall pick plus 59th overall to Columbus so they could select Andrew Ladd 4th overall.

 

The Canes really got a great deal. Ironically I've been kicking around the exact move in reverse where we go from 5 to 8, and assume we would at least get Columbus' 34 pick (from Toronto). Trading from 5 to 7 netted the #42 and a third rounder.

 

This year has a clear cut top 2, then top 5. We need at LEAST a very high second roudner to even consider it. But even then, it is only worth consideirng if our brain trust doesn't really like who we have at #5, or likes a group of guys lower. Ironically, in most years Columbus probalby thinks the #34 pick is too high, but with all of their second rounders...who knows.

 

Again, I line up and pick whoever is there of Hanifin, Strome or Marner and be done with it.

Edited by remkin

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Did Toronto shut down their official message board? Can't seem to find it.

 

That's been gone for a couple of months now.  Sounds like things were getting pretty ugly on there, lol. As bad as we think things are here, it's nothing compared to Toronto.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Why in God's green earth did Babcock decide to choose Toronto?  I would've chose Buffalo over Toronto.  Lol, he doesn't love himself.  And the leafs pay him over $6million per season?  They never learn.  As good as it would be to be coached by Babcock, if I'm a top 5 prospect, Toronto's still the team I'd least like to be drafted to.

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Why in God's green earth did Babcock decide to choose Toronto?  I would've chose Buffalo over Toronto.  Lol, he doesn't love himself.  And the leafs pay him over $6million per season?  They never learn.  As good as it would be to be coached by Babcock, if I'm a top 5 prospect, Toronto's still the team I'd least like to be drafted to.

 

I doubt that is the case, unfortunately. I think as 18yo kids, they still think with their hearts about teams. It'll only be after playing a few years and having to deal with crazy fans and a-holes in the media that they will change their tune about Toronto. Right now, I bet any of those kids who grew up Leaf fans would be thrilled to play for them.

Edited by MinJaBen

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Why in God's green earth did Babcock decide to choose Toronto?  I would've chose Buffalo over Toronto.  Lol, he doesn't love himself.  And the leafs pay him over $6million per season?  They never learn.  As good as it would be to be coached by Babcock, if I'm a top 5 prospect, Toronto's still the team I'd least like to be drafted to.

 

I can think of $50M reasons he chose Toronto.  Toronto is a wonderful city and Buffalo is not.  Player will still go to Toronto.  They are the New York Yankees of hockey.  Win or lose, love them or hate them, Canadian kids dream of wearing that uniform.

 

Not a bad move for the Leafs.  Money is no object for them.  Coaches don't count against the cap.  He's a proven winner and his "use by" date in Detroit was about up anyway (he had been there 10 years). 

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All good points SD.

 

The other thing is that the coach that goes to a terrible Toronto team and brings them back will be beyond a hero.

 

 Of course many have tried and failed, but to succeed there would be the ultimate.

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Do you mean the hiring of Babcock? Is Babcock a Marner guy?

 

Did Toronto shut down their official message board? Can't seem to find it.

 

But this is what the most recent contributor wrote on their official site on who they Toronto would take at #4:

 

So, here’s the guess. The Coyotes will be tantalized by Marner’s skill and Strome’s overall game but the temptation to match Ekman-Larson who will be 24 when the season starts with a comparable defenceman will prove irresistible, especially since the club already has Dvorak.

 

That defenceman could be Provorov who netted a point a game in his rookie season but Hanifin’s tremendous upside, he was Boston College’s best defenceman at 17, means he will go at three.

 

The Leafs pick then becomes a tantalizing one. As one talent evaluator said, the biggest mistake made every year at the draft is overvaluing big slow players and undervaluing smaller faster ones. Marner or Strome. That seems to be the question. (remkin's boldening).

 

Marner would dazzle with William Nylander, of course, but Strome could eventually evolve into a towering first or second line pivot whose size could complement Nylander’s speed. Add the prospect of Andreas Johnson, a 20-year-old coming off another excellent season in the Swedish Elite League joining the Leafs and the team’s long-term prospects look rosier.

 

That kind of sounds like a coin flip.

 

One poll of fans on a discussion board came out:

 

Strome 78%

Marner 11%

Hanifin 11%

 

If there is reason to think Torono will go Marner with a classic center or #1 dman on the board and thinking otherwise is hilarious, please enlighten.

 

 

Hilarious how exactly?   Toronto's front office has made it well-known that come this draft they will draft based on talent and overall skills.  If Marner is not available at 4 then Han will be too good to pass up on due to his skills and skating ability.  That leaves us with either Strome or Han.

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PK wrote that the Marner and size debate was hilarious in response to you suggesting that Toronto was taking Marner for sure. I was wondering what made them taking Marner a forgone conclusion, and thus why it would be hilarious to consider the Marner vs. "other" bigger player debate.

 

Why are you so sure that Toronto will take Marner. Just due to the talent comment? Strome is pretty talented as is Hanifin.

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Evidently former London Knights GM Mark Hunter, and Toronto's new Director of Player Personnel, took Marner in the first round of the OHL draft two years ago, while nearly everyone else passed on him.

 

I am certainly not saying Toronto would pick him, but there is certainly a connection and level of familiarity with Marner in TO, now that Hunter is in their front office.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I have said this elsewhere.  I don't think there is any other fan base in the NHL that has such a distaste towards smallish forwards as the Canes fans do.  Can you imagine the rage we would see if we straight up traded Skinner for Tyler Johnson?

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I have said this elsewhere.  I don't think there is any other fan base in the NHL that has such a distaste towards smallish forwards as the Canes fans do.  Can you imagine the rage we would see if we straight up traded Skinner for Tyler Johnson?

 

Like the Bolts would trade Tyler Johnson for Skinner....we'd have to throw in a lot more is my guess. If that deal could be done, our fans should give Ron a standing ovation.

Edited by MinJaBen

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I have said this elsewhere. I don't think there is any other fan base in the NHL that has such a distaste towards smallish forwards as the Canes fans do. Can you imagine the rage we would see if we straight up traded Skinner for Tyler Johnson?

I agree with this wholeheartedly, but SuperDave said it best, every thread is starting to turn into a size debate. I don't think I can go through the whole summer talking about the same thing.

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From my point of view we should try to get bigger and less soft, but Marner is the exception if he is the one left at 5. Outside of that issue raising it's head around draft time, for my part I will try to decrease my posts about size. I guess I'm saying I will make my posting on this issue much smaller, and if I do post, much shorter.

 

OK yes that is a bad joke! I really will try not to bring up that issue.

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Here is something that might help

 

super_dave_1 has started a topic called The great size debate

 

It seems like a logical place to discuss the size issue for those who wish to do so and for those to ignore it for those who wish not.

 

IMO that shouldn't limit posts or discussion in this topic pertaining to the attributes or lack of  for a particular draft target. But perhaps we can discuss it with the understanding that each of us have differing points of view concerning different draft players.

 

Thanks to SD for starting the new topic.

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Why do I have the feeling that this draft is going to be pivotal to this organization's success long-term?  Anyone else feeling that way about this one? Here's to hoping we make the right choice.  I am just afraid that if we do take a pass on Crouse and he ends up being the next Lucic or some other beast power forward we are going to be like what the heck just happened?!

 

So it's going to be either:

 

Strome - Conservative / no brainer if available

 

Marner - a good choice that can add much needed skill to the team.  Put up awesome numbers.  Can it eventually translate to the NHL?

 

Han - a safe conservative pick.

 

Crouse - a risky pick that could develop into a crucial power forward.  Played for a far less skilled team and created a lot of chances on his own.  You can't hold his scoring numbers against him.  He was shut down almost every night.

 

Porovov(sp?) - not sure how I feel about this one.

 

If Strome is somehow available come #5 I say we snag him.

Edited by bluedevil58

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