Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

Recommended Posts

Lake your version is what the team's scouts say publically after they pick a guy. Before hand is it more vague and close to the vest typically. I may be wrong, but I don't remember the Canes providing a lot of pre draft hype for Skinner or Fleury or Lindholm either. But afterward? Everyone gushes about what a great pick they made.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lake your version is what the team's scouts say publically after they pick a guy. Before hand is it more vague and close to the vest typically. I may be wrong, but I don't remember the Canes providing a lot of pre draft hype for Skinner or Fleury or Lindholm either. But afterward? Everyone gushes about what a great pick they made.

 

 

Maybe MacDonald was TRYING not to sound too enthusiastic about Hanifin! The FO has never seemed exactly forthcoming when it comes to the draft. 

 

Could be. I personally don't see a Canes head fake on Hanifin influencing anybody above us, but yeah, I guess pre-draft reserve is kind of the standard around here.  I'm still interested to see the tone of what MacDonald has to say about Marner and Strome in comparison, though.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am, again, completely down with drafting Hanifin. But I'm not so sure about reaching to the next tier. The Hawks and Tampa have strong 1-2 defensive guys w/ one total stud, as do most cup teams, but they are also both loaded up front, as are most cup teams. What you really need is the maximum amount of talent in all areas. Duh, I guess, but the point is that if elite talent is on the board, I don't step down a notch to chase defense. We picked D with the #7 pick last year. We got a very nice d prospect from LA. We have Faulk, and this year there will be intriguing dmen at #35 too (around where we got Faulk), and some UFA options.

Faulk-Fleury

McKeon-UFA

and other prospects can still form a nice defense. Not as good to be sure, but we need help up front too (#27 in goals for).

It is also still possible that at least one vet gets moved for defense or another first round pick (could pick defense).

I am doing the Snoopy dance if we get Hanifin, but also if we get a piece of StroMarner. If we drop to the next tier? Not unless it is a trade down, and even then not sure...

That's just me, but grab the elite talent: Stome Marner Hanifin. Those are the "could have gone first in another year" guys. There is a drop off after those guys. Just nice to at least be on that shelf for once.

Sure, Chicago has Keith and Seabrook, but they also have Kane and Toews, followed by probably the offensively deepest group of forwards outside of.....Tampa.

I'm only talking about Provorov, and like I said, I am considering it but I'm not quite there yet.

As I'm sure you've seen, many think Provorov will be as good as, or better than Hanifin but maybe this is just the result of writers with too much time on their hands.

I'm just a fan of building from the net out, and the Hurricanes have neglected their defense since...well...it started in Hartford.

The thought of having one of the better defenses in the league almost seems strange because of how this franchise has always been built, and I just keep seeing so many positives on Provorov.

Damien Cox just put out a mock draft where Provorov went to the Leafs at #4 (ahead of Hanifin and Marner). Probably won't happen but still it points to the attention he is getting.

Also, high-end defenseman can end up playing almost half the game whereas a forward is not even going to approach 27 minutes a game.

Anyway, having said all of this, I'm not ready to pass on Strome or Marner......yet. Hopefully we get Hanifin and it's a moot point.

.

Edited by Kyrule

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah Krule,

 

It's not a crazy thought at all. I've heard great things and then some detractors of Provorov. Then again some have Hanifin dropped down, but really Craig Button seems to be out on his own mostly on that, and also he is a big fan of Provorov over Hanifin.

 

I guess in the end it depends on what our scouts think. Provorov is 6 ft even, but stout, still smaller than Hanifin and certainly not adding to the size issue, but he has more flash and offensive flair than Hanifin, while still considered defensively responsible. One guy called him the Russian Seth Jones.

 

He would almost certainly be a good pick for a team. Also, while Faulk's offense is coming, he's not a flashy offense guy, nor is Fleury going to be, so Provorov might fit that need better.

 

To me, and I am completely not qualified here, but to me, w/ Hanifin I just see a guy that has the defensive end of the ice just simply under complete control. I can see him as an almost effortless defender who just always makes the right play. Does make me think of a Scott Neidermeyer, who he is sometimes compared with.

 

The mock drafters and most rankers have clearly settled on Hanifin. The DC database mock drafters have only one, if Damien Cox is to be added he would be 2 who have us taking Provorov, out of just under 40 mock drafts. Also, only a few even have him at 6 or 7. The vast majority of mock drafters drop him below 7.

 

The major scouting rankings on elite prospects are 5. The average rankings of what number they rank:

 

Hanifin: 3.6 (lowest 5)

Provorov: 6.8 (lowest 9)

 

(Crouse 7.4, but two have him in the top 5).

 

I guess I'm saying that your mention of Provorov at 5 is not at all unreasonable IMHO. He might actually fit our needs best to compliment Faulk and Fleury even better than Hanifin, and he is ranked around #7 very consistently by the scouting services and Button likes him.

 

But, I personally would not pass on Strome or Marner for him or pick him over Hanifin. As nice as it would be to have a 'set it and forget it' defensive prospect pool, we did pick defense at #7 last year, and got a nice defensive prospect from LA. The prospect pool is really thinner at forward, epsecially scoring forwards on a team already #27 in goals.

 

If the Canes do take Provorov, I would not cry, and would trust the brain trust got it's guy, but if I have to make the pick with no help, I stay with Stromarnifin.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Standard disclaimer: obviously this all depends on our actual scouting analyses.

 

Given that it's generally acknowledged that it's much harder to project 17yo d-men than forwards, if we do decide that our 1st pick is D, I'm thinking about trading down several spots and getting Provorov or Werenski PLUS, with the plus being a big, physical forward (either from a 2015 draft pick (late 1st or early 2nd round) or a previously drafted prospect). That is if we could work out such a deal. 

 

Werenski is 6 months younger than Hanifin with a career path and recent stats that are eerily similar to Hanifin's.  Scouts generally talk about Hanifin, Provorov, and Werenski together when they discuss this years top D prospects.      

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to refresh, Columbus has the #8 pick and Toronto's #34 pick.

 

IF we were to trade down to #8 the price should be in that neighborhood. Since Columbus still has their #38 pick in the second, it is not a crazy move for them.

 

If the top 5 go as expected, the #8 could be either Crouse, Rantanen, Provorov or Werenski or Barzal (who most now have going #6).

 

IF Columbus wants to get up there we could pick #34 and just stay up there and pick again at #35. Most scouts think that the guys available there would be first rounders most years.

 

I am not advocating for that move, just in terms of historical return, that is about right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll make a prediction (nothing else to do):

If a team trades to move up in the draft (into the top 10, or within the top 10), it will be to draft a defenseman (Hanifin, Provorov, or Warenski).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Michael Smith on the main website here is profiling the potential Cane's picks at 5.

 

I am in the pick Stromarnifin and move on camp. The guy who would get my excitement meter pegged would be Marner.

 

Earlier we were talking about team scouts playing their quotes close to the vest, but this one by Tony MacDonald gave me a chuckle:

 

“If you’re looking for a guy with skill and character, a guy who can contribute to the offense and play a 200-foot game, he’s your guy,” MacDonald said.

 

Yeah, I guess, if you're into that kind of player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

question, I may have missed this at some point and I know nothing is for certain until training camp is over. Who is NHL ready this year besides the obvious? Is Hannafin, Strome, Marner all expected to play NHL this year and make an impact or are we talking about waiting a couple years on them? So sick of waiting for draft picks while we tank.

Also, Whats the word on Fleury? Is he expected to make the club this year or is he still developing? We need to win now!

Trade the pick and get some NHL ers in here if they are not gonna be ready this year. I don't want to root for the Las Vegas Canes in 3 years. I know thats not popular opinion to trade #5 pick but we really are running out of time and money and regressing back to being the joke of the league with no fan base which is why I am all for the rumored "Kessel, Kadri" deal for #5 pick if its there. Unless it is expected that any of those three guys are to be Impact NHLers this year, than I might rethink it, but I'm sick of waiting for development. I just haven't heard much on where those 3 are at with playing in the NHL in 15/16. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NHL ready is such a difficult prediction. So few players really are ready year one. My reading is that all of Stromarnifin might need a year or two (personally I can't see more than one year for any of them). Strome is probably the closest, but he needs to improve his skating and he is a center. Marner is the closest skill wise, but needs to add bulk and strength. Hanifin is on the young end of the curve already and plays defense, a historically harder position to master at the NHL level, but has preternatural hockey IQ and basic skills.

 

This is of course my opinion, but I'm guessing all three could handle themselves in the NHL right away, but all three would benefit from at least one year of further development. If Strome just focuses non stop on skating, he might be the most ready. Of course based on most rankings and mock drafts he is also the least likely to fall to us.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This from Chip today

 

Chip Alexander @ice_chip 3h3 hours ago

Francis again said Canes could consider trading down in first round of draft but said it likely would be a "draft-floor decision."

 

 

 

I'm beginning to think we have a definitive choice in mind. If that player is still there at pick 5 we use it and if not we try to make a swap.  But I don't have a clue who the player is. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Philly could be an interesting trade partner.  They have the 7th pick and the 29th.  Maybe they are in love with who falls to 5 more than GMRF is. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This from Chip today

 

 

 

I'm beginning to think we have a definitive choice in mind. If that player is still there at pick 5 we use it and if not we try to make a swap.  But I don't have a clue who the player is. 

 

I take that as they want to wait to see if a specific player falls to them at #5, and if said player doesn't, he might consider dealing based on who's left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Philly could be an interesting trade partner.  They have the 7th pick and the 29th.  Maybe they are in love with who falls to 5 more than GMRF is. 

 

I had mentioned Columbus as 8 to 5 and their high second rounder would be a more historical price to pay, but to only drop to 7 and pick up an even higher draft pick would clearly be a better move and more tempting still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had mentioned Columbus as 8 to 5 and their high second rounder would be a more historical price to pay, but to only drop to 7 and pick up an even higher draft pick would clearly be a better move and more tempting still.

There may have to be a third added or something to get the compensation right, but it is a thought if Philly is all horny for a particular guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I take that as they want to wait to see if a specific player falls to them at #5, and if said player doesn't, he might consider dealing based on who's left.

 

Yes. Or there is a player that they are not as high on and if he drops they move.

 

Question is who? Who do they want, or conversely, who might they not really want?

 

Just some thoughts about why they might not want a guy:

 

Hanifin: Defenseman are harder to predict. Hanfin has some scouts less impressed than others. We used our last high pick on a dman.D men take longer to get to form. Our prospect pool is thinner for true point producing forwards than on D.

 

Marner: small. Just had back to back concussions. We have have Skinner. We need to get bigger.

 

Strome: big, but not particularly physical. Skating has been a major concern.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

#5 to Philly for #7 and #29

OR

#5 to Jackets for #9 and #34

 

Intriguing. The numbers with Columbus seem more "even" to me, but as mentioned, either would be dependent on how hot teams are for a particular player who was available at a particular position.  And I could see that going both ways. Say the Canes had minor concerns with whoever was left at #5 (Strome's skating/ Marner's size/ projecting a 17yo d-man) while a trading partner was particularly high on him. Canes still might not make such a deal unless a particular "tier 3" prospect we were targeting was available at the #7 or #9 spot. 

 

Examples:

  • Hanifin falls to #5 but we have slight concerns about projecting a 17yo d-man. Maybe a deal only happens if Rantanen or Provorov is still available at #7/ #9.
  • Marner falls to #5 but we have slight concerns about the concussions (let's avoid the size issue here ;)). Maybe a deal only happens if Provorov or Werenski is still available at #7/ #9.

Since a first round trade might be dependent on who was available, I could see us making the pick and trading that player rather than actually trading the #5 pick.  The reason it's not just a matter of semantics to me is that I'll be staying closely tuned to the next several draft picks even after we've chosen at #5.   

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, make the pick, dress the guy up, take all the pictures, let him be interviewed by TSN etc., and then trade him several spots later?

 

I highly doubt that happens but maybe it has?

 

Trade back and hope your guy is there is how it usually works, particularly when your taking an extra piece from the receiving team.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, coastal, I don't think that's the way it works. I mean, if GMRF has some concern for a player and decides to trade back, I don't think there's any way to shape that move on the contingency that the actual -player he desires is still available in the spot he trades for?

My choice in all this is Provorov, with Rantanen 2nd. Saying that, I've got no concerns about the quickness with which a Dman develops, as I think the much harder to obtain are defensemen. Remind me again, how long have we been attempting to accumulate a "good" defense? And if you can find any trade partner willing to give up a stud defenseman, the cost is prohibitive. My thought is to stock pile as many quality defensemen as possible, as they are such valuable trading commodities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trade down, especially to 7 would work if we are comfortable with Rantanen or Provorov. Both have very strong proponents out there. On NHL on XM they were claiming that Provorov is climbing, and one can find more than one scout claiming Provorov is as good or better than Hanifin. And others claim the Canes like Rantanen and that he will go higher than projected, though both opinions seem outside the conventional wisdom.

 

Many mock drafts are now bumping Barzal way up to #6. If we trade w Philly and they take what is left of Stromarnifin, there is an outstanding chance that Barzal goes next leaving us to pick from Provorov or Rantanen (or Crouse for those inclinded).

 

Clearly I personally am locked in on taking Stromarnifin, but if our brain trust has a serious hesitation about a part of that, and that's who we are left with, or if they have a secret love for say, Provorov, then a trade down could be a stroke of genius, especially if we get another first rounder in this deepest of drafts to go with a very high second rounder and two first rounders next year? Nice. And historically, that one would be an overpayment too.

 

In most years a late first rounder would be a 50-50 proposition at best, but this year there are some really nice players all the way through the early second round including our pick at #35.

 

The other thing would be if a team would give up a prospect or even a position player to move up.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, make the pick, dress the guy up, take all the pictures, let him be interviewed by TSN etc., and then trade him several spots later?

 

I highly doubt that happens but maybe it has?

 

Trade back and hope your guy is there is how it usually works, particularly when your taking an extra piece from the receiving team.

 

I'm not sure about the NHL, but I do remember that Eli Manning (#1) was traded for Philip Rivers (#4) PLUS in the 2004 NHL draft. I seem to recall it happening in the NBA but I'm too lazy to look it up. But it is pretty rare.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO RF shouldn't make a move until draft day.  Other teams want a specific player from the expected trio.  Much will hinge on Arizona's selection, and then Toronto will cement a sure thing for the other party.  That plays into his hand, where if the offer is too low, just take BPA.  If the other party's guy is sitting there for the taking, it is gut check time for them.  RF just sets the asking price and starts the game.

 

We'll find out if RF can handle multiple team offers, work 'em, or crap his pants.  Honestly, he can't lose because worst case is he chooses BPA, even if it isn't the one the consensus thinks of as top 5.

 

Relax and enjoy the gamesmanship.

Edited by Manwolf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If for whatever reason we decide to draft "D" I still see Werenski as an option if we trade down a couple of spots.  I hope the Canes do a Werenski profile as I'd love to hear what MacDonald has to say about him. 

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...