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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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I think Manning made it really clear previous to the draft he wouldn't play for the Chargers. I think they drafted him just to spite him.

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Some stuff:

I see Remkin's poll about the #5 pick (haven't voted yet). I read a similar poll about the #4 pick on MaplesHotStove or something like that (or on another Leafs site). The results were something like this (don't quote me):

Marner: 373 votes

Strome: 368 votes

Hanifin: 178 votes

Provorov: 7 votes

Crouse: 7 votes

So it seems most want Strome or Marner, but I wonder if there is a bit of Canadian/Toronto bias in there as both Strome and Marner want to be Leafs. Or it could be that they just like these guys and are afraid of the "defensemen are harder to predict" theory.

I read a recent article that talked about Hanifin and Warenski going in the top 10. It said that two college defensemen haven't gone in the top 10 since 1991, and the players were Scott LaChance (No. 4), and Aaron Ward (No. 5).

It also said that two haven't gone in the first round since 2002, and the top players were Ryan Whitney (No. 5), and Keith Ballard (No. 11).

The article wasn't putting the players down or saying they are risky, but those aren't exactly encouraging examples/players.

Just thought it was interesting, from reading around it seems like some feel that college prospects are overrated.

I think I still want Hanifin, but I really like Provorov as well.

It's nice to see others boarding the Provorov train.

Like I said before, I like high-end defensemen because they log so many minutes and they are very difficult to acquire/sign without over-paying. I really believe our best, and maybe only chance to build a top-rated defense is through the draft.

With Hanifin and Provorov it's not just about position, I feel that they are close enough to Strome and Marner that "best player available" may still apply (I'll leave that up to the scouts/management). At one time Hanifin was consistently ranked at #3, and he hasn't moved much. What Provorov did as a rookie in the WHL is very impressive, and when I hear terms like "physical, good skating, good shot, plays offense and defense, plays the PP and PK, controls the game/tempo, most NHL ready, leader, etc., I can't help but be impressed.

Like I said, I would consider/not be upset with Provorov at #5. I'm not ready to vote yet, but I will likely vote Hanifin or Provorov, Provorov, Hanifin.

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Thanks Krule,

 

That really is an interesting poll. What I find most interesting is Toronto fan bases absolute Stromarnifin love. The drop off after Hanifin is stunningly steep. Don't get me wrong, I expect the big next three to be the big three, but less than 1% for Provorov or Crouse?

 

From comments on our boards I expect our poll to show at least a little more love for Provorov et all.

 

Also, interesting that they prefer Marner ahead of even Strome, (though basically a wash), and well ahead of Hanifin.

 

At least their fanbase has Marner ranked #3.

Edited by remkin

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There's also a poll on NHL.com. They ask who people would take after McDavid and Eichel.

 

Results are much different than the Toronto fan poll:

 

Strome: 41%

Hanifin: 34%

Marner: 9%

Rantanen: 8%

Crouse: 5%

 

So at least so far in that poll they don't have nearly the love for Marner that I and the Toronto poll do.

 

They also have a write up about the best dmen which they rank:

Hanifin

Provorov

Werenski

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Thank god it's only a week from the draft.

 

:deadhorse:     Marsha Marsha Marsha     :preach:       :coverears:

 

Picking 7-12 is a lot easier.

 

:sarcasm:

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Well, the GM's will start using the media next week, the media types and prognosticators don't have the playoffs to focus on anymore, and I'm certain the rumor mill well get going again (go away Leafs fans, we have no need of your baggsuckage).

 

So, there is that.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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In the poll, I voted:

 

If it were up to me - Hanifin

 

Moving to 7 (disclaimer: my choice here could be gone at 6 in this case) - Provorov

 

Of Stromemarnifin (which is a little redundant since Strome could just as easily been included in "if it were up to me") - logically it's the same answer as "if it were up to me"  = Hanifin.

 

My choices have nothing whatsoever to do with size vs skill or whatever.  I'm a well known advocate of defense first and this is a real opportunity, IMO, to solidly a solid defense for the future,   So, pick the best dman, and then have at it with the other 8 picks.

 

I will say Provorov has really grown on me, and I'd be tickled to have him on the team. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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In the poll, I voted:

If it were up to me - Hanifin

Moving to 7 (disclaimer: my choice here could be gone at 6 in this case) - Provorov

Of Stromemarnifin (which is a little redundant since Strome could just as easily been included in "if it were up to me") - logically it's the same answer as "if it were up to me" = Hanifin.

My choices have nothing whatsoever to do with size vs skill or whatever. I'm a well known advocate of defense first and this is a real opportunity, IMO, to solidly a solid defense for the future, So, pick the best dman, and then have at it with the other 8 picks.

I will say Provorov has really grown on me, and I'd be tickled to have him on the team.

So I guess we feel the same way about the opportunity/potential to have a high-end defense.

I would rank my pick/preference as:

1. Hanifin

2. Provorov

3. Strome

4a. Marner

4b. Crouse

4c. Rantanen

7. Warenski

8. Barzal

.

Edited by Kyrule

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Appreciate the votes. It is fun to see what the broader group thinks.

 

So far the most interesting thing to me is zero Strome love.

 

I pulled him out of the first option for two reasons really. One that almost no one thinks he falls to us, but also, I had thought he would draw a lot of votes away from much more likely availalbe choices. 97% of mock drafts and both huge database polls (NHL.com and the Toronto poll, have Strome either solidly #1 or near tied for it). Could be that we haven't really been talking Strome on here much, but so far no one picks Strome over Hanifin or Marner.

 

That said, my guess is that so far we just have other Stromarnifn favorites, but would be good w/ Strome if somehow he fell to us.

 

Also, does look like early voters are very good with picking another defenseman. Years of weak defense certainly plays into that.

 

Personally, though I've posted it before, my order may surprise some:

 

1. Hanifin

2. Strome

3. Marner

4. Provorov

5. Rantanen

6. Werenski

7. Barzal

8. Zacha

9. Crouse

 

Yes, despite my defense of Marner, it is in the context of Marner as the remaining piece of Stromarnifin (Strome and Hanifin gone). I like Marner over everyone on the next tier. Obviously I am less sold on Crouse. His productivty numbers in Juniors just scare me and at #5 there are better picks. If we ended up trading way down, say 10, then I would be very happy w/ that pick.

 

As to trading down, definitely Provorov. Of the non Stromarnifin strata I disagree w/ the new mock trend to go Barzal next, plus Barzal is smallish. If Provorov goes #6, I'd have a tough choice between Rantanen and Werenski. That said, Barzal is said to be an amazing playmaking center, so I would not cry if we got him, but he is not a big guy.

 

I continue to maintain that any piece of Strome Marner or Hanifin would be great. I do wonder if there is a piece of that group that GMRF is less thrilled with and would trade down if he is hte remaining guy. I think we can guess at who it might be, but there really are legit reasons it could be any of them.

 

However, I do have a growing interst in a small trade down. If we went to 7 and NJ took Barzal, (currently the most predicted mock) and we could end up with Provorov AND a late first or early second rounder, in this deep draft. There is little doubt that Provorov is a very solid pick and imagine if that extra pick and our #35 both turn out well. Add Fleury and two first rounders next year, and we got something cooking!

Edited by remkin

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Appreciate the votes. It is fun to see what the broader group thinks.

 

So far the most interesting thing to me is zero Strome love.

 

I pulled him out of the first option for two reasons really. One that almost no one thinks he falls to us, but also, I had thought he would draw a lot of votes away from much more likely availalbe choices. 97% of mock drafts and both huge database polls (NHL.com and the Toronto poll, have Strome either solidly #1 or near tied for it). Could be that we haven't really been talking Strome on here much, but so far no one picks Strome over Hanifin or Marner.

 

That said, my guess is that so far we just have other Stromarnifn favorites, but would be good w/ Strome if somehow he fell to us.

 

Also, does look like early voters are very good with picking another defenseman. Years of weak defense certainly plays into that.

 

Personally, though I've posted it before, my order may surprise some:

 

1. Hanifin

2. Strome

3. Marner

4. Provorov

5. Rantanen

6. Werenski

7. Barzal

8. Zacha

9. Crouse

 

Yes, despite my defense of Marner, it is in the context of Marner as the piece of Stromarnifin gone. I like Marner over everyone on the next tier. Obviously I am less sold on Crouse. His productivty numbers in Juniors just scare me and at #5 there are better picks. If we ended up trading way down, say 10, then I would be very happy w/ that pick.

 

As to trading down, definitely Provorov. Of the non Stromarnifin strata I disagree w/ the new mock trend to go Barzal next, plus Barzal is smallish. If Provorov goes #6, I'd have a tough choice between Rantanen and Werenski.

 

I continue to maintain that any piece of Strome Marner or Hanifin would be great.

 

However, I do have a growing interst in a small trade down. If we went to 7 and NJ took Barzal, (currently the most predicted mock) and we could end up with Provorov AND a late first or early second rounder, in this deep draft. There is little doubt that Provorov is a very solid pick and imagine if that extra pick and our #35 both turn out well. Add Fleury and two first rounders next year, and we got something cooking!

 

Since you are listing, I'll share my list and thoughts:

 

1a. Provorov

1b. Hanifin

2. Marner

3. Werenski

4. Rantanen

5. Barzal

6. Strome

7. Crouse

8. Zacha

 

As of right now, I'd choose either of the two best defencemen at the number five position. I think they are both very good, but I give Provorov the edge due to his dynamic play and what I think is a game (and talent) very similar to Duncan Keith's. After those two, I think Marner is the best talent and would not pass him up even with the risk of his size being smaller than the norm. And when I say size, I don't have an issue with his height, more his build. One of my biggest differences from you is my evaluation of Strome. I put him in the "risky big men" category with Crouse and Zacha. Unlike those two, however, it is not his production that is the risk, but his mobility that is potentially limiting at the NHL level. I'm also a bit concerned that some of his performance numbers were due to him being "sheltered" on the second line of his junior team and almost consistently not being targeted by the other team's best defenders.

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Min,

 

Good points. I think your fears of Strome point out how trying to guess which player or two Francis and company might trade down around is not straightforward. Cases can be made that they have concerns about any of them.

 

On Strome, I think he really rose to the rough consensus #3 pick because of what he did when McDavid went down. His productivity was so off the charts before, which may have been due to all the attention to McDavid's lines, but for quite a few games when McDavid was hurt Strome stepped up to the first line and just kept on putting up monster numbers.

 

Skating and mobility have been major concerns expressed by several scouts and seems to be his weak spot. I have read some reports that he has already improved this some. Also, skating seems to be an area guys can improve signficantly with focus on it (apparently John Tavares did not skate at the NHL level in Juniors, but worked on it and now skates pretty well.).

 

I'm not an expert or trying to say you're wrong at all. Just offering some things I've seen about Strome that might explain his mock draft resistance to droppnng in their rankings. The scouting reports are more mixed that the mock drafts too.

 

It would be interesting if Strome fell to us, mainly because he's not supposed to, and talk of him has been thin here, and thusfar no one has voted for him.

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Min,

 

Good points. I think your fears of Strome point out how trying to guess which player or two Francis and company might trade down around is not straightforward. Cases can be made that they have concerns about any of them.

 

On Strome, I think he really rose to the rough consensus #3 pick because of what he did when McDavid went down. His productivity was so off the charts before, which may have been due to all the attention to McDavid's lines, but for quite a few games when McDavid was hurt Strome stepped up to the first line and just kept on putting up monster numbers.

 

Skating and mobility have been major concerns expressed by several scouts and seems to be his weak spot. I have read some reports that he has already improved this some. Also, skating seems to be an area guys can improve signficantly with focus on it (apparently John Tavares did not skate at the NHL level in Juniors, but worked on it and now skates pretty well.).

 

I'm not an expert or trying to say you're wrong at all. Just offering some things I've seen about Strome that might explain his mock draft resistance to droppnng in their rankings. The scouting reports are more mixed that the mock drafts too.

 

It would be interesting if Strome fell to us, mainly because he's not supposed to, and talk of him has been thin here, and thusfar no one has voted for him.

Well from today's Draft profile[/b], the skating issue may just be a need to add leg strength.  A summer with Gary Roberts will fix that

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Interesting that they are doing 7 draft profiles, and Barzal and Ranatanen are not among them. Warenski and Zacha are the likely remaining two.

Not a big deal, just surprised that Rantanen didn't make it.

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Interesting that they are doing 7 draft profiles, and Barzal and Ranatanen are not among them. Warenski and Zacha are the likely remaining two.

Not a big deal, just surprised that Rantanen didn't make it.

 

Unless it's Jakub Zboril and Yevgeni Svechnikov. :P

   

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My preferences (subject to the standard caveats):

 

1.  Strome

2.  #5 traded for what ends up as Provorov or Werenski PLUS a low 1st/ high 2nd round pick OR at least a high B-level prospect who is big and physical

3. Marner

3. Hanifin

 

To me Crouse is the biggest risk at #5, mostly because of opportunity cost.  While I see him as being one of the least likely to completely strike out, I also see him as the most likely to hit a ceiling below the level of other potential picks.  I'd love Crouse at #12 or #15 but not at #5.  

Edited by LakeLivin

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Yeah, some rankings have Kylington down around 20 or lower. Maybe in a major move down, but personally I just can't see the logic in that.

 

It is very hard to read the tea leaves but reading some comments from Philly and Columbus GM's kind of points out why so few trades down or up happen. The GM trading down generally has the attitude of, "well if someone makes a ridiculous offer". The GM trading up is not going to make a ridiculous offer very often. So many things have to fall into place. The moving up GM has to be really locked in on a particular player or two and feel that there is a big drop off after that, the moving down GM has to basically not see it that way, and then the moving up GM has to make a pretty sweet offer. The moving down GM will have to live down actively passing on the next "insert name" star, thus really needs an overpayment. This year, the standard "price" chart of each move down is probably not enough either.

 

Hextal, Flyers GM, put out there that after McEichel, the players aren't really separated by much. Of course he is spinning, but the comment implies he wouldn't pay much to move up to #5, and a blogger wrote "certainly not their" late first round pick. Well their second round pick is late in the round due to trades, so forget that.

 

Columbus GM mentioned trading up and down and was the one who said he'd trade down if someone offered him a ridiculous offer (paraphrasing), making one think he might not offer much to move up.

 

That said, these guys are spinning and posturing, so who knows. I still think that Columbus is the team where it makes more sense from their point of view. In fact, if I'm Jarmo Kekalainen, I'm really trying to move up. They are loaded with prospects, and have 3 second round picks including #34 and #38.

 

I still think if we move to #8 GMRF is going to want at least that #34 pick.

Edited by remkin

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Chip Alexander has a concise write up of draft in today's N&O, but nothing new vs what's been and being discussed here. Guess there's only so many ways to spin the obvious, so bring on Friday night!! I'm just hoping GMRF is staying at #5, because driving 140mi, I surely don't want to drive home in "road rage" mode from Raleigh.

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My final thoughts as far as the draft goes... I think Hanifin's the guy RF wants the most, and with Toronto/Arizona having a top pairing LHD already in addition to having other organizational needs, Hanifin's the most likely to be there at #5. If he gets taken ahead of us, Provorov's #2 as far as who he wants, which he thinks he can get if he traded down. The question is should he try to trade down and acquire more assets or pick the player at five? I say pick Provorov at five. His stock has gone up over the past few months, and I think our rivals drafting around us would take him based on needs and out of spite. It's not worth risking losing out on two top eligible Dmen.

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My final thoughts as far as the draft goes... I think Hanifin's the guy RF wants the most, and with Toronto/Arizona having a top pairing LHD already in addition to having other organizational needs, Hanifin's the most likely to be there at #5. If he gets taken ahead of us, Provorov's #2 as far as who he wants, which he thinks he can get if he traded down. The question is should he try to trade down and acquire more assets or pick the player at five? I say pick Provorov at five. His stock has gone up over the past few months, and I think our rivals drafting around us would take him based on needs and out of spite. It's not worth risking losing out on two top eligible Dmen.

 

To me, Werenski likely provides enough of a safety net to justify trading down if we want to go with defense.  There are even a couple of analysts who rank him above Provorov and Hanifin. But I'll wait to see what MacDonald has to say in the next prospect profile before setting my opinion on the matter in concrete . . .

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