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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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Just took a look at Toronto's schedule remaining. We're picking 5th. (baring trade or lottery win).

 

Every game Toronto has except two are against a team trying to make or stay in the playoff race.

 

We're going to get a very good player, just hope there isn't a run on forwards.

Edited by remkin

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My Board:

 

1.  Eichel

2.  McDavid

3.  Hanifin

4.  Strome

5.  Trade down to 8-10 and look for Rantenan or Crouse

 

We are too small up front to draft Marner.  5 is too high for Rantenan or Crouse, although somebody might give us something nice to move up a few spots in a deep draft.

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Been playing with a site that has a random generator for the NHL Lottery Pick.

 

Here is the site:

 

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/

 

This is what I got as to whom the randomizer picked as probably #1 draft pick.

 

 

You have run the simulator 100 times.

Buffalo Sabres Wins: 24
Edmonton Oilers Wins: 12
Carolina Hurricanes Wins: 11
Arizona Coyotes Wins: 10
Philadelphia Flyers Wins: 10
Toronto Maple Leafs Wins: 7
Colorado Avalanche Wins: 5
Columbus Blue Jackets Wins: 5
Dallas Stars Wins: 5
Florida Panthers Wins: 3
Los Angeles Kings Wins: 2
Ottawa Senators Wins: 2
San Jose Sharks Wins: 2
New Jersey Devils Wins: 2
 

Edited by hopper915

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Edmonton has apparently played themselves down to the #3 pick (barring a lucky draw in the lottery). Apparently they have discovered tanking year after year brings bad kharma.

 

On a related note, the Kings have a 5 game road trip through the Northeast starting tomorrow, and play only 3 of their last 11 at home. So how deep is the 2016 draft anyway?

 

Looking more and more like Toronto is going to refuse to accrue another point this year and Columbus has pulled away from us, so again, not considering the lottery, we look to be slotting at #5. Looks like there will be some good options there.

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Edmonton has apparently played themselves down to the #3 pick (barring a lucky draw in the lottery). Apparently they have discovered tanking year after year brings bad kharma.

 

On a related note, the Kings have a 5 game road trip through the Northeast starting tomorrow, and play only 3 of their last 11 at home. So how deep is the 2016 draft anyway?

 

Looking more and more like Toronto is going to refuse to accrue another point this year and Columbus has pulled away from us, so again, not considering the lottery, we look to be slotting at #5. Looks like there will be some good options there.

 

Buffalo and Arizona went ALL IN on SRM before the trade deadline.  I don't think Edmonton did as much as even us, did they?

 

I keep expecting Calgary to fizzle out and allow LA to slide into that 3rd spot, but they just don't seem to want to go away. . .

Edited by LakeLivin

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A lot of the mocks have us taking Mitch Marner. I think people would be weary of that pick because he's 5'11" but the guy is pretty dang good.

 

2014/2015 stats: 63 GP, 44 G, 82 A

 

Smallish forward with a real scoring touch…scores in multiple ways…always in the right spot to receive a pass…a good wrist shot, and he plays with a lot of grit and isn't afraid to crash the net for chances…has the hands and creativity to go end to end with the puck…speedy and very agile…excellent foot speed and quickness, and is tough to contain when he gets going; he can beat nearly anyone on the ice with his speed…impressive hand speed and creativity…sees the ice well and makes some really good passes…is a threat on each shift…work ethic and compete level are impressive…relentless pressure on the puck. 
______________________________________________


Combine skill, smarts and confidence and you have Mitch. Excellent playmaker who can make plays in and through the tightest of spaces. Very elusive with his skating but can attack & beat defenders 1-1. Sees plays unfolding and is very comfortable holding puck to allow them to develop. Plays with an assuredness that is threatening and he doesn't take a 'back seat' in the game.

Edited by TheFaulker

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I don't think Marner sounds like Skinner. Skinner is a pretty unique cat. His style seems to lean on that figure skating background. He is a sniper. He's a lateral skater, who's attempts to draw defenseman in with his lateral style then go by them, seems to have been solved by most NHL dmen. Leaves him mostly a pure sniper.  Not a great passer. Does not "see the ice". Plays small in the dzone and on the boards. Marner is the antidote to those things.

 

Marner is smallish, but he's much bigger than the guy about to win the Caulder, Jonny Gaudreau (5'9" 150). But he plays big.

 

The thing is this. Size is nice, but you need size OR speed. Skinner has neither of those. Marner is fast and quick. Watching opponent speedy forwards get that step a burst into our end makes me want speed more than size.

 

And this kid has the package. We seriously need a playmaker. Like an elite one. He has all the skills all the hockey IQ, all the grit, he has everything except he's not 6'3".

 

And while he doesn't have size, he has that other word the size people want: grit. Sandpaper. He plays big.

 

We are also looking at Dylan Strome. He is tall. But he is not physical at all. He plays smallish for his size. He has the skill, but that size is only useful if you use it. Sure he has the Staal-like reach and yes he is a talented guy, but not due to his size.

 

You want a decient sized player with world class two way skills. Needed to tank more for that. Two guys and we have about a 1/10 chance at them. So baring winning the lottery we aren't going to check every single box.

 

All of the talk about size, when Francis was asked way back when, he mentioned speed ahead of size, which he favored if all else was equal.

 

We could do a lot worse if we go chasing size. Major Speed, quickiness, toughness and grit, impressive compete and work ethic, elite playmaker sees the ice with very high hockey IQ, creative, elusive...sounds good to me.

Edited by remkin

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I don't think Marner sounds like Skinner. Skinner is a pretty unique cat. His style seems to lean on that figure skating background. He is a sniper. He's a lateral skater, who's attempts to draw defenseman in with his lateral style then go by them, seems to have been solved by most NHL dmen. Leaves him mostly a pure sniper.  Not a great passer. Does not "see the ice". Plays small in the dzone and on the boards. Marner is the antidote to those things.

 

Marner is smallish, but he's much bigger than the guy about to win the Caulder, Jonny Gaudreau (5'9" 150). But he plays big.

 

The thing is this. Size is nice, but you need size OR speed. Skinner has neither of those. Marner is fast and quick. Watching opponent speedy forwards get that step a burst into our end makes me want speed more than size.

 

And this kid has the package. We seriously need a playmaker. Like an elite one. He has all the skills all the hockey IQ, all the grit, he has everything except he's not 6'3".

 

And while he doesn't have size, he has that other word the size people want: grit. Sandpaper. He plays big.

 

We are also looking at Dylan Strome. He is tall. But he is not physical at all. He plays smallish for his size. He has the skill, but that size is only useful if you use it. Sure he has the Staal-like reach and yes he is a talented guy, but not due to his size.

 

You want a decient sized player with world class two way skills. Needed to tank more for that. Two guys and we have about a 1/10 chance at them. So baring winning the lottery we aren't going to check every single box.

 

All of the talk about size, when Francis was asked way back when, he mentioned speed ahead of size, which he favored if all else was equal.

 

We could do a lot worse if we go chasing size. Major Speed, quickiness, toughness and grit, impressive compete and work ethic, elite playmaker sees the ice with very high hockey IQ, creative, elusive...sounds good to me.

 

:goodpost: Saved me some typing. :)

 

The game has changed and I don't think it's going back anytime soon.  Although you obviously want size and speed, the latter seems to have become more important in the current NHL imo.  Notice that noone has even mentioned teams bullying us in quite awhile?  I don't think it's because they're afraid of Brad Malone, the closest thing we've got to an enforcer; he's not even suited up half the time.  I've got to believe it's due more to the real threat of league sanctions (and maybe a PP with some teeth this year).     

Edited by LakeLivin

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What Rem said is great.

 

The first two people to respond basically proved my point. Fans will instantly bash the pick because he's "small". Marner is a much different player than Skinner. Peters wants the team to be fast right? Well, Marner would definitely bring the speed he wants.

Edited by TheFaulker

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I've been able to watch Marner 6 times during the OHL season this year.  I know, it's only 6 times, but I'm here to tell you, Mitch Marner is 360 degrees from Jeff Skinner.  There is no comparison.  Totally different player. 

 

Marner sure plays BIG for a smaller forward, and man can that kid fly.  But to me, the thing that sticks out above all else is what a great possession player he is offensively and defensively.

 

We won't go wrong at 5th with any of Hannifan, Strome, or Marner, if that's how it works out.

 

I still think we are going to troll the league and win the lottery though.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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So ok guys, I stand corrected about my outlook on Marner, and right, he is N-S speedy with grit, however, Lake I take exception to your one comment that no one has mentioned us being bullied lately. I haven't mentioned it because to me, it's a foregone conclusion that our team plays "soft". When mentioned, seems that for 25 or so posters on here, there are 25 ways to describe what happens to us when teams such as Dallas, Boston, St Louis, and at least 1/2 dozen others come in and literally push us around. The result is that if you are seated where I am, in #326, it literally seems as if 2/3rds of the game is played at the opposite end of the rink! Now, depending on one's reference point, that can be called lack of support, inability of the D to move the puck up ice, grit or any one of the favored descriptors, but to me it feels like "bullying".

So yes, I am literally "gun shy" in the face of our play over the last 5-8 years over taking on smallish players. Now maybe under the tutelage of Peters, we can now make progress with this team of perennial "softies". And too, seeing the likes of the Chicagoes and Montreals

of the league making us pay for not slowing down their up ice rushes certainly confirms what is being pointed out as the wave of the future. Yet still I am unwilling to accept that size is unimportant. It's almost the equivalent of a multimillionair telling me that money doesn't matter. All depends on one's reference point.

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Kjun- I don't believe that size isn't important; just that speed seems to have taken on a more important role in the current NHL.  I haven't seen either team much this year, but didn't the Flames and Isles build their turnarounds on speed more than size?

 

Granted, you can't have a team full of Tolchinskys. But I don't think you can win with just big slow guys, either. One additional perspective about speed vs. size; It's very noticable when smaller players lose possession because they get out muscled on the boards.  But how often do we balance out those instances with those where a battle on the boards never even happens because a faster player got to the puck first?

 

Hey, give me size and speed. But if we can't get both in a player, I'm just saying don't give up too much speed/ talent in exchange for size alone. 

 

Lastly, I wouldn't classify us as a terribly small team when it comes to forwards,  Small forwards: Gerbe, Terry, Skinner, and Dwyer.  The other 9 forwards are all 6'1" or taller.  We do seem a lot smaller on D, though, and I'm in agreement that we shouldn't draft another small d-man.

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We won't go wrong at 5th with any of Hannifan, Strome, or Marner, if that's how it works out.

We always seem to miss out on the "consensus top ?"

This year after a semi-consensus top 5 things go all over the place.

This of course means that a team at #6 or above will win the lottery, putting us at #6.

I've seen everyone from Crouse, Provorov, Warenski, Raantanan, Barzal, Zacha, and maybe a couple others around this spot.

If we do pick in the top 5 the I suspect we take Strome, Marner, or Hanifan if available. If we pick at #6 and those guys are gone, then I don't even have a guess which way we go.

Peters and Francis may want a good puck moving defenseman (Provorov, Warenski), or maybe they want a big-bodied forward that can skate (Crouse, Raantanan). Maybe they have a guy rated higher than others, a guy they really like.

It should be interesting.

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Wait, everyone was saying "This draft is deep, you can't miss."

 

So, it is interesting to see the hand wringing already.

 

I don't follow juniors, so this subject is way over my head.  Just observing you guys.  :)

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This draft is deep, but you can miss. Every player is a collection of strengths and weaknesses all going into a predicition of how good they can be as NHL players and the likihood of them acheiving that. People love to point out the exceptions, but as a rule the higher the pick the better the chance of success overall. The further down the board the more or bigger the potential weaknesses are, increasing the chance that player does not translate into the NHL.

 

This is why, again, exceptions noted, cough, Edmonton, cough, teams that have a long run of picking high in the draft tend to turn their shjp around eventually. Pittsburgh, Chicago, etc.

 

This is why the old tank vs SRM vs play every game like it's game 7 of the SCF's argument keeps coming up.

 

Also, most years there are fairly clearly defined "tiers" of players. This is all about probablity. There will be misses in the top tier, there will be great players taken just out of the top tier, etc. Our ability to gauge this is mostly from my point of view, a collection of rankings, mock drafts, youtube videos, watching some tournaments, etc.

 

Most years there seems to be a top guy, or two. Then a top 4-5, etc.

 

Picking #4 is better than picking #6. Seems so obvious, but again, people love to point out the exceptions and the fact that draftiing is inexact. True, but while you can make a mistake picking #4, you are more likely to make a mistake picking #6 after your two best shots are off the board.

 

So, the ship on tanking to the bottom has completely sunk. So now it's all about the #4 slot. And xray, you point out one reason why. If you pick #5, you have just under a 40% chance of getting bumped to #6. And then Marner, Strome and probably Hanafin are gone. You still get a very good prospect but you are in the next tier.

 

This is a prime example of the issue. Say we want to go with a forward since we used a high draft pick on defense last time. We end up #5 but get bumped down to #6 after #8 wins the lottery. Then we are possibly looking at a guy like Crouse. Well this is a guy with the size and "tools" who has not lit up Juniors. There's your risk. You must devolop his scoring game. Guys like Marner and Strome already have it. What if it never really developes? You have a miss.

 

Could Marner or Strome miss? Sure, but the odds are longer that happens.

 

People hate talking about tanking and SRM and I get it. What a disaster to hope your team loses games. But this season is over. It's all about the future. Unfortunately, w/ 6 straight losses and 1-8-1 in their last  10 and two more games played than us, Toronto seems "all in" on the #4 slot.

 

So it may all be moot.

 

Still picking #4 would be the best possilbe non lottery win spot and it would assure us Crouse or Marner. If we end up #5 there may be a run on forwards leaving us Hanifin, a fine choice, but two very high d picks in a row...if we get bumped to #6, then we're in the next tier.

 

That said, there is usually some late juggling and sometimes a guy shoots up the board late.

 

I think Marner and Strome can both be game breakers who check almost every box. This draft is deep though and there will be really good NHL players taken throughout the draft. Still picking #4 would be prime.

 

Just win the lottery. 1 in 12. It could happen.

Edited by remkin

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NHL.com has two new mock drafts out: Mike Morreale and Adam Kimelman:

 

Kimelman has us at 5 on Mitch Marner: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome, Marner

 

if we slide to 6 he puts defenseman, Ivan Provorov there. Lots and Lots of kudos for him (Morreale calls him the only NHL ready dman in the draft and ranks him also at #6).

 

Morreale puts us on Lawson Crouse, LW. Big body, hard hitting with good hands, power forward type.

 

He goes McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin, Crouse, Provorov, Kyle Conner, then Mitch Marner at #8.

 

So for those two you can see there is a top 4, then a bit of dissent.

 

Two other big bodied forwards: Miko Rantnen RW, 6-4 209. Tearing up the Finish league, and Pavel Zacha, 6.3, 210: high skill set, playss both ends good work ethic.

 

 

Reading about guys going 15-20 hopefully our Kings pick (with some luck) those are still really good sounding guys.

Edited by remkin

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Ah, mock draft season.  And tater planting time, for you gardeners.  Did you know that the tater you buy in your local store to chunk in the oven is probably a couple of years old?  If not, then you probably have never tasted a fresh dug tater.

 

Anyway, in those two mock drafts Provorov is consistent at six.   If Marner is there at #5, and assuming Strome and Hannifan are gone, what would RF do? 

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Ah, mock draft season.  And tater planting time, for you gardeners.  Did you know that the tater you buy in your local store to chunk in the oven is probably a couple of years old?  If not, then you probably have never tasted a fresh dug tater.

 

Anyway, in those two mock drafts Provorov is consistent at six.   If Marner is there at #5, and assuming Strome and Hannifan are gone, what would RF do?

NHL draft guru and tater growin' savant?

Man, the members here are multi talented.

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Aha, my younger sister's birthday!! Now for sure we'll win the lottery. Remember, you heard it 1st from me!! Now, if we don't, I'll slink back into my shell??

 

If we win the lottery, I'll send her an autographed McDavid jersey!!

Edited by KJUNKANE

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According to a Sportsnet.ca report, the league has decided to hold this year’s draft lottery Apr. 18, as part of a Hockey Night In Canada playoff broadcast.

Thanks Lake, I was looking for info/a date for the lottery. I wonder if the GM's from the "top" 5 or so teams will be there as they have done in the past. Although it would be kind of depressing seeing Francis sitting there like JR did.

.

Edited by Kyrule

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