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Whaler1

2015 NHL Entry Draft

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Thanks Lake, I was looking for info/a date for the lottery. I wonder if the GM's from the "top" 5 or so teams will be there as they have done in the past. Although it would be kind of depressing seeing Francis sitting there like JR did.

.

 

I'd prefer they do that over sending a clueless guy like one team did last year.

Edited by wxray1

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Thanks Lake, I was looking for info/a date for the lottery. I wonder if the GM's from the "top" 5 or so teams will be there as they have done in the past. Although it would be kind of depressing seeing Francis sitting there like JR did.

.

Isn't that one of the 30 in 30 prizes? Canes draft representative.

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I'd prefer they do that over sending a clueless guy like one team did last year.

LOL!

I remember that, forget which team it was.

Good call/memory.

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Isn't that one of the 30 in 30 prizes? Canes draft representative.

 

That's funny right there.  LOL.

 

Wasn't it Florida?  They won and when the camera panned to their guy he just stared off in the other direction.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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It looks like we are locked into #5 unless we win the lottery,or someone below us does. Toronto has absolutely quit playing. Few of their games are even competitive. They are developing a losing culture with what will be most of their team next year. I'm much happier with the Hurricanes approach - fight to the end. I don't think there is any one player that is going to turn around the poisonous atmosphere Toronto has created the last quarter of the season.

Lots of talk about Skinner's shortcomings on the board. If we could draft a true scorer and playmaker, what are the chances Skinner could bring us the quality of defenseman we desperately need if we wanted to trade him?

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BD,

 

Agree, we are essentially locked into the 5 hole pre lottery. Toronto also has 2 more games played than us. If we win one of those two they are behind us by 6 points with 7 games to go and they are not winning, so #4 isn't happening. On the other side Columbus has taken the winning feeling approach and has won 4 in a row and 8 of 10. So #5 going in is almost a lock.

 

Then the lottery which the odds are:

 

54.5% we stay a #5

37% we drop to #6

8.5% we pick #1 (essentially 1 in 12).

 

I completly disgree with the whole winning feeling thing, and building for next year as a rule is greatly overrated (just look at our history). BUT, in this case, there is no longer anything to lose by winning and a full on collapse like Toronto with no chance of getting into last, is not preferable. Since our place is bascially set, building structure for next year is better than losing games that won't affect the pick at this point.

 

So, since we are essentially locked into the 5 hole, at this point the SRM, let alone tanking, ship has sailed, and in that case winning is better, especially home games. Kind of makes it less interesting in a way though.

 

Now all eyes on LA. It is very possible that we get another pick around #15. There are some very good options in that range. If we end up picking #5 and #15, plus a very high second rounder in a very deep draft, this could be an historic draft for us even if we don't get in on McEichel.

Edited by remkin

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Obviously I'm pulling for us to win the lottery.  If not us, one of Buffalo, Arizona, or Edmonton.   Oddly, if it comes down to it I'm still not sure if Id rather see Toronto win the lottery or one of the teams that finished above us (which would slide us down to 6th). :unsure:

Edited by LakeLivin

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Obviously I'm pulling for us to win the lottery.  If not us, one of Buffalo, Arizona, or Edmonton.   Oddly, if it comes down to it I'm still not sure if Id rather see Toronto win the lottery or one of the teams that finished above us (which would slide us down to 6th). :unsure:

While I'd hate to see Toronto or Edmonton (they have won this enough) win, I do not want to lose any of the draft position that this team has fought/tanked/SRMed so hard for.

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It's the heart vs. head thing.  The head says pick as high as possible.  The heart says I don't want Toronto to win the lottery and if it does it's fixed (the head doesn't believe that).  And that 5 vs. 6 might not make that much of a difference in the big scheme of things this year.  At one point there was a clear top 4. Now I see Lawson Crouse ahead of Strome & Marner in some reports. Even Hanifin has slid behind d-men Werenski and/ or Provarov in a couple of reports.  I've got a feeling the scouting consensus might still get shaken up a bit with NCAA and Junior playoffs still to come. 

 

I'm being just a bit facetious, I do want to pick as high as possible. But I'll be really annoyed if Toronto wins the lottery.

Edited by LakeLivin

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So the LA thing is coing down to the wire. We want that pick NOW!!!

 

Right now they are out looking in, but with a game in hand on both teams they are chasing. (Vancouver went 7-2-1 and has put itself out of reach). So "we" are chasing Calgary and Winnepeg. The shortest (and best for us) path is through Winnepeg.

 

The Peg is 2 points and 2 wins up, but with one more game played. Calgary is 3 points and 5 wins up and one more game played.

 

LA lost Sekera, ironically, and he appears to be out for awhile as the injury is speculated by reporters as "not minor". This is tough for Sekera, and I truly feel bad for him personally, but in an ironic, cold blooded way, it could be good for us. If LA squeaks in and then loses in the first two rounds, we almost certainly pick #15 or #16.

 

If LA gets in as the last Wild Card they seed #8. Yes, I know, they don't care, but still, they would face Anaheim on the road. With a banged up defense and expending a lot of energy to push in and a cup hangover, I take Anaheim, but at least a 50-50. Then another 50-50 if they get through. So, if LA squeeks in, I say about an 80% chance we pick 15 or 16.

 

So the path:

 

WPG's games:

 

Vancouver (home), Calgary (home), Minnesota (road), STL (road), Colorado (road)

 

Calgary:

 

Arizona (H), Edmonton (A), STL(A), WPG (A), LA (H)

 

LA:

 

Edm (H), Van (A), Col (H), SJ (H), Edm (A), CGY (A)

 

 

If we assume that EDM and ARI are wins (not safe, but gotta try to predict).

 

Then LA picks up 2 wins, and CGY 2 Wins. Since CGY has an effective 4 point lead (has wins tie breaker), that will make CGY much harder to catch. But LA has a game in hand. So it if LA wins that game, it is doable.

 

But WPG has no lay up games. Colorado is the easiest game and they are 20-15-3 at home. And LA plays them also, but in LA, where Col has a losing road record by a good bit.

 

It is pretty crucial that LA beats Edmonton today. That game is at home. IF they win that one they pull even with WPG w/ one less win and 5 games to go for both team. Thus LA needs to pick up just one more point than WPG over the last 5 games of the year. Given WPG's schedule, that should be a decent bet.

 

So, the hope, LA slides just past WPG for that last spot, and then goes down to Anaheim. Then Boston goes on a bit of a roll, and finishes #15, leaving LA in the 16 slot leaving us to pick #15.

 

Then we win the lottery too. :D

Edited by remkin

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Just one clarification: LA has the tie breaker over the Jets by 3 right now (it's non-shootout wins, not overall wins).  With an easier schedule and Byfuglien likely facing a suspension today, LA should finish ahead of the Peg.

 

At the other end, with the Leafs losing to Buffalo last night, the Yotes pulled within 2 points of the Sabres for McEichel.  Sabres have the "tiebreaker" (Yotes have more reg/ OT wins) but the Sabres last 5 games include Leafs, BJs, and us.  Yotes easiest 2 are the Sharks, so on paper Buffalo has a much easier schedule. This could also go down to the wire; it will be interesting to see what lineups each team ices the rest of the way.

Edited by LakeLivin

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LakeLiven wrote:

 

Just one clarification: LA has the tie breaker over the Jets by 3 right now (it's non-shootout wins, not overall wins).  With an easier schedule and Byfuglien likely facing a suspension today, LA should finish ahead of the Peg.

 

At the other end, with the Leafs losing to Buffalo last night, the Yotes pulled within 2 points of the Sabres for McEichel.  Sabres have the "tiebreaker" (Yotes have more reg/ OT wins) but the Sabres last 5 games include Leafs, BJs, and us.  Yotes easiest 2 are the Sharks, so on paper Buffalo has a much easier schedule. This could also go down to the wire; it will be interesting to see what lineups each team ices the rest of the way.

 

 

Good point Lake. That makes the Peg even more likely the target. So key that LA holds serve vs. Edmonton tonight. If they do, one has to think they have the serious edge. Then Calgary is possible if they Flame out. Best bet is LA over Winnepeg.

 

Yeah and the bottom race is also interesting. Who'd have thought anyone could challenge Buffalo, and yet here we are. If Buffalo is trying to make it look good at the end, they're playing it masterfully. But, since players play to win, they have to be seriously sweating up there.

 

Our position pre lottery is all but nailed down barring some insane last minute winning streak by us or Toronto: #5 it is. Sports club stats has our chances of finishing in the 5 pick slot at 94%. With 4% chance to get to #4 and 2% chance to drop to #6. If we go 6-0, we will have a roughly 50-50 chance of dropping a slot. It would take 0-6 to have the odds slightly in our favor to drop to #4, but w/ Toronto in full on tank, even that probably doesn't get it done.

 

So, #5 it is, then win the lottery.

Edited by remkin

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Well LA took care of business rather emphatically.

 

That was an expected, but massively needed win. Upped their playoff chances 11.3% to 72%. (Along with the Calgary loss).

 

And that does not take into account the ease of remaining schedule. So part one of the the plan is looking pretty good: make the playoffs.

 

Part 2: exit early. Best case the Kings go 2-1-2 and finish with 96 points and make it, but play Anaheim in the first round (45% chance).

 

If they finish strong, they are most likely to get Vancouver.

 

OK getting picky. Just get in.

 

Next round tomorrow:

 

LA: Home vs Colorado

Peg: Home vs Vancouver

Calg: Road vs Edmonton

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Just read that there will be video evidence of the draft lottery available to the public.

No tinfoil hats this year.

 

That doesn't mean much. Remember when the NBA froze the Knicks envelope beforehand so David Stern would know which one to pick so NY could draft Patrick Ewing? That was done on live tv. :wacko: 

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So LA took care of business again. But so did Winnepeg and Calgary.

 

Sports stats has LA's playoff chances at 74% weighted (acounting for difficulty of schedule) and 70% straight up (50% chance of each team winning each game).

 

At the moment they are in the last Wild Card slot in the league, which would mean two things if the season ended today.

 

1. With a first or second round exit in the playoffs, we would pick #15. The best possible outcome for a pick this year.

2. LA would open in Anaheim. Probably the most likely team to knock them out.

 

As it stands on straight odds there is a 70% chance of them making and a 75% chance of a first two round bounce, so the chance of us picking around #15 is 52%. A coin flip.

 

BUT if they get in, then it's 75% they get bounced. (I know, I know, LA is built for the playoffs, etc etc. But as the road team, and post cup hangover, and possibly no Sekera, and having had to push so hard to get in, and all three WConference series going to 7 games last year, I think that evens out the runs they've had in the past).

 

Now, for the record, if they slip in, and make the WCF, we get their pick at 27-30 depending on how far they go.

Edited by remkin

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Flames, Jets, and Wild win.

Kings lose to Edmonton.

It's not looking good as far as getting LA's pick this year.

 

Yeah, kind of stunning. Two rounds of games in a row w/ Calgary, Jets wins and King's losses. Losing to Edmonton even,

 

Sportsclub has not updated, but yesterday's events dropped their chances by an astounding 40% if my math is right. Their playoff chances dropped to around 22%, again, if my math is right. 

Edited by remkin

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Yeah, kind of stunning. Two rounds of games in a row w/ Calgary, Jets wins and King's losses. Losing to Edmonton even,

 

Sportsclub has not updated, but yesterday's events dropped their chances by an astounding 40% if my math is right. Their playoff chances dropped to around 30%, again, if my math is right. 

 

Hit refresh in your browser.  It is more like 20%.  :(

 

I.E. "They need to win out and they're gonna need help."

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Yeah 21.1...bummer.

 

On the plus side, our chances of sliding to the #4 pick slot with our last two losses and Toronto's last win, jumped up to 24%. Very interesting if Toronto wins tonight vs Columbus. 

 

If Toronto wins tonight, we can be guaranteed the #4 slot, and at least the #5 pick if we lose our last two. 

 

I know the guys will play to win. But to me there is an advantage beyond and extra whisker's chance in the lottery. Mainly this. I think we want a forward with this pick. To me, outside of the dynamic duo, there is the really good next couplet of Marner and Strome. Then there is the defensive prospect Hanifin.

 

Thus there is a clear top 5 to me. (Not to everyone). But if we go into it in the 5 slot there is around a 37% chance that we get bumped down to 6 and thus, out of the top 5. At 4 we have a slightly bigger chance of being bumped, but only to 5.

 

If we pick at 4 we are guaranteed Strome or Marner (if RF wants them). At 5 we are guaranteed them or Hanifin. At 6 we are likely to miss all of them. (Not the end of the world, still really good options left, but I really think we want to end up at least at 5 and finishing 4 guarantees that).

Edited by remkin

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