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2015 Off-Season talk

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Personally, I'd like to see the tandem of Ward/Khudobin next season and see where the chips fall at next year's trade deadline, as they were our strongest/most consistent players through out the season.

 

I cannot believe (or maybe I can) that Semin is so delusional that he is blaming his season on his wrist injury. As I said before, if that was the issue, then he should have stay in IR until it was 100%. He was hurting the team more than helping.

 

It will be an interesting summer. Probably won't be boring.

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Won't be boring? We have 4m to spend and have Nash and Newry to resign. We also need to rebuild the blue line. Unless we do some sort of Sekera trade don't expect much until 2016 off season.

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I posted this over in another thread a couple of weeks ago but it raises an interesting enough point that I'll repeat it here. 

 

Interesting article by Cory Pronman that presents the hypothesis (and some data to support it) that forwards are more important than defensemen.  Here's an excerpt of that part. The article suggests that Marner and Strome should be drafted before Hanafin, but it seems of more general interest to me.

_______________________ 

-------------------------------------

 

Forwards are more important than defensemen

In the 2014 edition of Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract, Tom Awad unveiled one of the most important pieces of research in hockey analytics in the past few years, titled “What Makes Good Players Good?” As you might expect, it asked a simple yet extremely important question: Who are the "good" players, and what attributes make them "good"?

 

One of Awad’s conclusions -- that forwards are much more important than defensemen -- was initially jarring:

“Results at even strength are driven primarily by forwards. This is not to say that offensive play is more important than defensive play; simply that, in the NHL, the players who contribute the most to outscoring the opposition at even strength are first-line forwards, not top-pair defensemen.”

 

To show this, Awad split up the leaguewide ice time for forwards and defensemen into quarters and thirds, respectively, and analyzed the differences between the tiers of ice time and their performance. With forwards, there were noticeable differences between the four tiers, but this was not the case for defensemen in the first two tiers, with only a moderate drop-off to the third. Awad showed that the difference between the highest- and lowest-tier forward groups was a 0.76 goal differential per 60 minutes, but the difference between the highest- and lowest-tier defenseman groups was only a 0.13 goal differential -- six times less!

Another way to look at this is to take individual splits of shot differential for players when they were on the ice compared with their team when they were off the ice. To determine the role of players in the chart, I used each player's ranking within his team by even-strength ice time.

 

insider_pronmanhanifin_tk_576x418.jpgCorey Pronman

 

This echoes what Awad found in his research. The even-strength effects of forwards are more pronounced at the top and bottom of performance levels than they are for defensemen. Good forwards elevate a team and bad ones crush a team, and the effect is more intense than that of their defensive counterparts.

 

This does not suggest that particular star defensemen don’t impact teams in a significant way -- Zdeno Chara, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson come to mind -- or that there are no black-hole defensemen in the NHL. But generally speaking, defensemen at the top of a team’s lineup impact their team much less than the top forwards on a team at even strength, and these differences remain even after adjusting for details like quality of competition and linemates.

 

When I asked one NHL executive what he thought about that chart, he said, “I’m not surprised. Good forwards are far more valuable than good defensemen, and if anything, when you’re drafting, forwards tend to be safer bets to pan out as well.”

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Well in the very slight chance we don't win the lottery and get the 5th pick, I think Edmonton will take hanifin and Toronto will take stroke. I don't really want RF to go after crouse. I'd really like us to see us take marner so we can get a great offensive playmaker even if he is a little undersized.

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I think we are going to be in better shape when the deals start happening because after we win the draft lottery we will have an easier time signing FA's since players will want to play with McDavid.

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Undersized offensive wingers. Jeff Skinner fits the bill and you know what? He turned over the puck multiple time every single shift and was probably responsible for at least 50 to 100 goals against. I am sick and tired of undersized wingers. It gets us and has gotten us nowhere.

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Undersized offensive wingers. Jeff Skinner fits the bill and you know what? He turned over the puck multiple time every single shift and was probably responsible for at least 50 to 100 goals against. I am sick and tired of undersized wingers. It gets us and has gotten us nowhere.

 

How do you really feel about Skinner?

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Undersized offensive wingers. Jeff Skinner fits the bill and you know what? He turned over the puck multiple time every single shift and was probably responsible for at least 50 to 100 goals against. I am sick and tired of undersized wingers. It gets us and has gotten us nowhere.

 

McDavid isn't undersized and he's a center.

 

Put your tin foil hat on and get with the program bd.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Comon, 50 or 100 when he is on the ice, sounds  high to me... Hanifin,   and hes a stud d-man, with pedigree from BC, will be gone..

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Let's not get into the cycle of constanly overreacting to the "mistakes" of the past. We have gone undersized, but that is far from an absolute that bigger is better. Despite all of the talk of Francis wanting to get bigger, all I ever heard him say was "if all else is equal, you prefer the bigger player". That is a HUGE if.

 

There is a forward, a winger in fact, he is 5'11' and a sleight 177, but very good. He affects games. He is dynamic, fun to watch and scores in bunches. He is plus 55 in his career. This is who I would take if he were available.He scores a point per game over his career.  His name is Patrick Kane, so he's not available but this is who Mitch Marner will become if he hits his potential, who he is compared with, not Jeff Skinner.

 

As to Skinner, yes, there have been issues. He was plus 2 his rookie year. Concussions have stunted his developement. I will say this though. The next 4 guys picked after Skinner pale in comparison. Alex Burmistrov 6'1": 27/42/24/14 points before going to the KHL. Mikael Grandlund: 22 points last year, has been pretty good this year with 39 points: btw 5'10. Dlyan McGrath: 6'5" Defenseman. Still in AHL. Jack Campell: Goalie: still in AHL and not looking great.

 

I think Francis going D last year w/ Fleury was a great pick. First, he is big and a great skater, and the second best D man in the entire draft. Second, we need a top d prospect in our system. Third, the forwards had gotten a bit iffy by #7.

 

BUT this year I would 100% go w/ a forward. It will be tough, especially if we drop to 6 and there is a run on forwards, not to take Hanifin if he is there, because at least a forward who can score and play defense, can well, score. But we have Faulk and we have Fleury. Plus we will have to go full out to get a good defenseman in UFA or trade this offseason. Then I still think McKeown is a nice prospect. Further, we need scoring.

 

To me the tricky thing would be if A. Hanifin drops due to a run on forwards or B. We drop to 6th. So long as we at least stay in the 5 slot and someone takes Hanifin ahead of us, we get either Strome or Marner. If we end up #6 and it goes McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome, Marner. We are in the next tier. There, I like Rantanan, but I'd much rather have Marner.

 

Of course it won't matter when we win the lottery.

Edited by remkin

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Remkin gets the voodo magic there at the end of that post. Well done Rem, keep rattling those chicken bones and bat teeth.  But this is a democracy and one can have free thoughts.  With that said,

 

Please draft for 2017-2025 when picking outside that winning lottery ticket.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Lake, let me 1st issue a disclaimer. I am not nor ever will be an analytics person. Like a few others on here, who get bored with lengthy threads(which I don't btw), analytics for me negate human uniqueness.

That being said, I'm sorry but I cannot agree with the writer of the piece you've just posted. In my most humble opinion, the single attribute which for me elevates the sport of hockey above any other, and I submit that coming from an area of football fanatics of which I was one, that represents a huge deviation, is that its a TEAM sport.

If so, and I assume most on here agree, than how does one take a team sport and divide it down to individual players? Seems to me, when analytics are formulated, one loses the elements that other team members contribute to those individual statistics.

For instances, playing in our system, with generally no name Dmen, except Faulk, compromise must be made in scoring to take up slack for our generally, by all accounts, "weak defense". Surely, on the other hand, the stronger the average back end is, the more luxury a team has to go after scoring forwards.

In summary, it appears to my eyes that this team must bolster our defense, before we go after someone like Marner. We have all seen the frustration of being unable to purchase a good defense. More so than anything, I think those players have to be "home grown".

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Please draft for 2017-2025 when picking outside that winning lottery ticket.

 

With the exception of maybe goalie, I think the answer is to take the best player available (at the top of the draft) that fits what the organization is trying to do.  If that player is a defenseman, then so be it.  If it is a forward, so be it.  Once you get past about midway through the first round, then beauty is usually in the eye of the beholder, and a GM can focus in on specific positions of need.

 

In other words, what coastal said.

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Lake, let me 1st issue a disclaimer. I am not nor ever will be an analytics person. Like a few others on here, who get bored with lengthy threads(which I don't btw), analytics for me negate human uniqueness.

That being said, I'm sorry but I cannot agree with the writer of the piece you've just posted. In my most humble opinion, the single attribute which for me elevates the sport of hockey above any other, and I submit that coming from an area of football fanatics of which I was one, that represents a huge deviation, is that its a TEAM sport.

If so, and I assume most on here agree, than how does one take a team sport and divide it down to individual players? Seems to me, when analytics are formulated, one loses the elements that other team members contribute to those individual statistics.

For instances, playing in our system, with generally no name Dmen, except Faulk, compromise must be made in scoring to take up slack for our generally, by all accounts, "weak defense". Surely, on the other hand, the stronger the average back end is, the more luxury a team has to go after scoring forwards.

In summary, it appears to my eyes that this team must bolster our defense, before we go after someone like Marner. We have all seen the frustration of being unable to purchase a good defense. More so than anything, I think those players have to be "home grown".

 

 

BINGO.  Look at how many times Nashville made the playoffs with a crap team.  Suter/Weber anyone?  If we can have some sort of equivalent to that with Fleury, Han, Faulk, McKeown.  That be a step int he right direction.

Edited by bluedevil58

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4 coaches, several seasons and basically carbon copies results..  same issues of long scoring droughts, below par average front line that can not compete night in and night out, zero on ice leadership, defensive break downs...the list goes on... personally id like to see RF go for skilled offensive forwards.. tired of watching this team struggle to score and shooting the puck in the opposing goalies logo.....

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What do you think we are going to do at the center position after we get McDavid?  I think Eric will have to stay at wing since we will have another top center.

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It looks like the Francis/Peters end of season news conference (noon) will be streamed live on CanesVision. Maybe we will get an idea of where the team is headed.

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My issue is picking very high in the draft. Taking defenseman high in the draft if riskier. Yes, it is a best player available situation, but weighted. Yes, if you have a can't miss dman, like Ekblad, you take him. But Chara, Pronger, Suter, and lots of really good dmen did their best work for teams that didn't draft them, and they were not all taken high in the draft.

 

We would be going out on a limb picking defensemen at #7 then again at #5.

 

Again, to my point above, I think Francis will have to address the defense with a serious move this offseason, either a trade or a good UFA. I don't think he is going to want to pick up a band-aide solution. Thus..

 

IF Francis gets a top pair type dman though trade or UFA, and if Fleury or McKeown develop into legit top dmen, our problem in 2 years out will not be defense, it will top line scoring. And you don't get those top line scorers easy (unless you're Detroit). They are almost always acquired at the top of the draft.

 

In this draft, to me there are two top tiers.

 

1. McEichel.

2. Strome, Hanifin, Marner

 

5 guys who in given years could be considered legit overall #1 picks. After that there are really really nice players who could be great NHLers, but don't have the "can't miss" combination of meets the eye skill an actual crazy productivity. Guys like Crouse, and Rantanen have the look of solid NHL'ers but have not actually put up "legit #1 pick" numbers.

 

If we end up with Strome or Marner we have a legit #1 pick type guy that we are ONLY getting that way.

 

Of course McDavid will be better than all of them in a Canes uniform.

Edited by remkin

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Is anybody else carrying this? The Fan isn't...

 

I haven't found another feed. I guess I'll just wait for the video to be posted

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