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2015 Off-Season talk

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Just want to add that, oh wait, Lake and OBXer pretty much said it.

 

This team needs a couple of middle range value guys. We don't have enought of them. We are top and bottom heavy. We also need RWs. Brad Boyes is a great example. If we get him for $2 million on a one or two year deal? Perfect. He brings 17G and 35 points. That, my friends would have made him our 3rd highest scoring forward last year. #3. You say last year was the year of staggering forward failure? Well two years ago he would have been our #5 forward.

 

Again we have top guys, (who have all vastly underperformed their potential and contracts), and bottom guys: Terry, Nesty, Nash, Bowmans, Boychuks, and we bring in a Ryan type guy and then our younger prospects, and get varying contributions from them. We do this every year, and we should. But we can't rely on them.

 

What we need is proven mid range NHL producers. Relative values who know how to be a professional NHL player and produce mid range numbers consistently while doing some little things.

 

I know that those guys have to want to come here. That is a problem. But we should be making very serious runs at what guys there are to fit that bill.

 

We are through frenzy time (les frenzy this year). This seems to be the year of more caution from GMs on UFAs.

 

Adding more veteran leadership can't hurt either. I don't think Francis wants to be done. I think he wants to add one or two more pieces. But will he be able to? I hope so.

Edited by remkin

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True. But history would suggest that after the initial FA frenzy players become much  more flexible when it comes to terms.  Just off the top of my head, last year both Stempniak and Winnik signed 1 year deals for cheap ($900k and $1.3m) and were productive. 

 

 

Good point.  Cory Stillman was sweating and JR was able to make a nice deal.

 

Here's where RF earns his pay.  Any old GM can throw down $10M for 6 years for the top FA and get him. 

 

But now, the real deals start.

Edited by wxray1

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Top, you may be right, but I hope not. That reminds me a bit too much of last year. We supposedly didn't add anybody because we were in "evaluation mode" (players like Rask, Boychuk, Terry, Nash, etc.)  Even before the season, some of us peons here thought that we didn't have enough talent and that we'd have to get lucky to have enough of those come through to make us competitive. I see it as similar this year except with questionable talent from outside of the organization. I say "questionable" in the true sense of the word, not as a insult.  Maybe players like Hensick, Ryan and Tolchinsky will come through, but they're certainly not a given. And I'm looking more at the forwards right now; I don't think the D prospects should impact what we do up front all that much.

 

Kjun, yeah, I wouldn't mind adding Boyes for a year. Or at less $, Stempniak or even someone like Blake Comeau (15g, 31p, +6 in 61 games for the Avs last year).  A RW who's already proven he can produce at the NHL level.  I'd hope the 2-way deals that we've got in place with some of our new players give us the flexibility to add another piece or two.  Depth has been a real problem for the Canes for too long imo. 

It'd be fine with me if we went out and got a top-six forward, don't get me wrong. It'd improve our chances of making the playoffs and would give these kids some early experience with that. But given that Nesty played top-six minutes for a bunch of the second half, I have to think he might have earned that slot out of the chute this year.

 

And while I hear you re D vs. O, signing Hanifin trumps everything else right now, and it's going to impact what we can do elsewhere. We're exceedingly lucky he was there for us, but it's meaningless if we don't get him signed. And even though it'd be a two-way, I have to think that if he decides not to go back to college, he'll be on the NHL roster when the season opens. The prevailing notion coming out of the org seems to be that the AHL and NCAA are equal in terms of competition level, and that he's gone as far as he can in college.

 

There is no question we need scoring, but there is also no question that nobody on the roster capable of scoring did so last year. BP seems more interested in puck possession and creating good chances than having a loaded bench, which makes sense given his Detroit experience. If everybody on this roster goes out and plays the roles they are asked to play and are capable of playing, there's no reason we can't score goals. Last year is a bad metric because the roles were changing constantly. I think BP now knows what guys are capable of and will slot them to play those roles, and if they don't, there'll be hell to pay.

 

When guys get to this level they are capable of playing. It comes down to will, as Malone and Nesty and Rask showed last year. Now we'll see if the rest of the roster steps up. Plus just having Semin gone is going to be very, very big in terms of getting rid of the poison in the room.

 

But go out and get a Boyes or Stempniak or someone similar? Sure, if the deal is right.  

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Top, I think entry level contracts are capped at $925k per year and signing bonuses are capped at 10% of a contracts total compensation.  Given the room we've got, that shouldn't really effect what we can do in the free agent market. Outside of the question as to whether he goes back to college or not, unless I'm missing something, signing Hanifin almost seems like a formality to me.  He's got to get the maximum allowable, no?

 

For anyone interested, there's a CapGeek article still out there that does a nice job explaining entry level contracts including all of the potential bonuses.

http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

Edited by LakeLivin

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Top, I think entry level contracts are capped at $925k per year and signing bonuses are capped at 10% of a contracts total compensation.  Given the room we've got, that shouldn't really effect what we can do in the free agent market. Outside of the question as to whether he goes back to college or not, unless I'm missing something, signing Hanifin almost seems like a formality to me.  He's got to get the maximum allowable, no?

 

For anyone interested, there's a CapGeek article still out there that does a nice job explaining entry level contracts including all of the potential bonuses.

http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

You're right Lake, and thanks for the link! Although he could cost a bit more with any signing or performance bonuses, it shouldn't affect our spending ability.

 

Now I'm even less opposed to signing a stop-gap top-six forward :) 

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Had this crazy idea, but let me just play this. Seeing that Montreal appears to have lost Pacioretty for a bit, said to be until start of the season, wonder if they might be looking for a player with scoring potential? Now I know that the talk is that Pac is tough, and will probably accelerate his healing, but the fact remains that, if nothing else, his conditioning will lag, That being the case, could they possibly consider trading for Skinner?

 

Now I know that Skins did look to be somewhat better at season's end, and possibly he is getting into Peters' system, but the same old arguments remain, namely his defensive liability, his conclusive liability and his softness. Add to that the issue of soon to be attainment of UFA rights, and serious consideration has to be given to trade consideration. Might the time be right?

 

If any of this is being pondered, might there be someone in the Canadians stable that would be an asset here? Galchenyuk?

 

Or is it just getting too late?

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Skins for Galchenyuk AND Subban ;)

 

No, not really...as much as I don't mind trading Skins because I think he's one more concussion away from being done in the NHL, I don't want him traded to the Habs.

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I understand that they might not be your favorite team,AWACS, but was just looking at something that could be beneficial to both teams? Skins might blossom in that atmosphere and we could be rid of the downside and risks he brings?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Just trying to wrap my head around this. We are already short of scoring wings, we buy out Semin, have a chance to lose E and now we are advocating trading Skinner.

 

Our defense better be a lot better this season.

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In theory I'm not opposed to trading Skinner for the right return (which would have to be a young, offensively gifted wing). But given that it seems to be generally known that GMRF is open to moving Skinner and nothing has come about yet, I'm starting to believe that a trade at this point would necessitate "selling low".  Looking at it from an "asset management" perspective, I've got a feeling that our best bet is to let him bounce back this season (which I believe he will) and then move him for a better return if we still so desire. Sure, Skinner comes with risk, but he also brings considerable potential reward as well. I mean, the kid just turned 23yo!

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WE know getting rid of Skins at 23, would HAUNT us for years, and years..  JMO

 

 So let's sign him to a long term NTC contract worth about 10 mil per year , and then make him captain. 

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As with ohters, the idea of trading Skinner has appeal. The problem is bound to be the return. While there are undoubtably GMs willilng to take a chance of Skinner, he is currently seen as a guy with big potential, but who has not shown an abililty to play with any kind of edge in the defensive zone, hence consistently sports a negatively gaudy minus, and who now (last year) also has not shown an offensive ability to score, (or pass). Oh, and he is currently, rightly labled as "concussion prone". Oh and a young guy not far from joining the procession of young players JR handed NTC's to.

 

Is any GM going to take a player like that? YES! But they are going to want to steal him. Or at least get a major discount that factors last year and the concussion issue strongly into the price.

 

I don't know if Francis has been actively shopping Skinner, but the assembled media sure seem to think so. If true, clearly the offers coming back are not sufficient.

 

So, yes, trading Skinner now would be a big example of trading low.

 

I agree w/ Lake that Skinner has a high likelihood of coming back strong this year. It has been his modus operandi in past years:  Heal up over the summer, work on weaknesses, and come back strong. The kid put up 30 goals as an 18 year old. He has better than last year in him. I may be dreaming it, but I thought before his last conussion he was passing better and even back cheking better. Then.....bam.. concussion and after that....never quite got it back in gear.

 

But he has also played stretches without concussions. So with a bit of luck, he can have a nice long stretch with no concussions, he can get back to firing on all cylanders and have the kind of breakout year he probably would have had by now if not for the concussions.

 

By breakout, I mean offensively. Some players never quite get it on defense. But if he doesn't and the offensive numbers come I see two possibilites:

 

1. We can cary him defensively as our awsome d corps round out, and other players pick up the slack some, and his offense justifies it.

 

2. He will be tradeable for a nice return if the offense comes back.

 

Right now we are fishing for a GM who is enamoured with what Skinner could be enough to provide a return based on that. So far, sounds like no one is biting on that.

 

So, here's to Skinner being the comeback kid and keeping his bell unrung and showing us what he can be this year.

Edited by remkin

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And what if Skinner takes another knock to the head, and becomes another Marc Savard case?

 

The risk of Skinner getting another concussion is currently "priced in" to what return Francis is probably being offered on him. The price would undoubtably be much higher if Skinner had bounced back from that last concussion and started posting "Skinner-like' numbers.

 

It's all about risk vs reward I think. Right now, the other GM's probably see the risk as much bigger, and certainly more immediate, and are making offers along those lines.

 

But he is not only seen by every GM in the leauge as concussion prone, but also coming off a bad year. He is also widely viewed as soft and his plus minus is right there on the paper. My guess is that if we knew the offers being made it would change our opinions. My guess is right now the interest in Skinner is almost like a risky prospect, and the offers are in line with that.

 

I think Skinner played himself out of being traded last year by putting his stock's value in the tank.

 

So we are looking at taking paultry return vs. rollling with Skinner. So, yes, the concussion issue is a risk. But a strong comeback is the potential reward. If the offers for him are low, we are better taking the risk. But there defnitely is risk.

 

This is where it would be so nice to hear what's been offered...

 

Like when we heard that the offer for taking Cam last year was us giving up our number one draft pick (now Hanifin) to let a team take Cam off of our hands. The risk was that Cam continued to struggle mightily. But the return offered was outrageously bad. I'm not saying the Skinner return is that bad, but how quickly it changed my view on trading Cam knowing what the offer was. Changed the entire risk/reward equation for us. Luckily, we didn't pull that particular trigger.

Edited by remkin

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And what if Skinner takes another knock to the head, and becomes another Marc Savard case?

 

Or what if he doesn't, and becomes the next Sidney Crosby?

 

Okay, that's a stretch, but let's remember: There was a time when Sid was one concussion away, too. In point of medical fact, he still is, but he learned how to play smarter. This season will tell us whether Skinner has made the same transition.

 

I hope it also tells us whether his teammates will start stepping up for him, too. The total lack of response to last pre-season's dirty dirty dirty hit by Niskanen was oh-so-Hurricanes. Let's hope that in addition to everything else, BP is teaching these pantywaists something about setting a tone.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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top-shelf mentioned Crosby which is what I was going to do. Seems like it's been a few years since anyone has really talked about him having concussion issues. So I'm hoping for something similar with Skinner. Yes there's obviously a chance he gets another one and is all but done. But since it seems the current return for him is so low we are better off taking the chance that he can rebound and stay healthy for us.

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Faulk-Wis

 

Hainsey-Han

 

Liles=Murphy

 

 

As far as I can tell this is probably what our D is going to look like opening night....

 

Forslund guessed this morning that maybe it will be Wiz and Noah on 3rd pairing.

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Yeah it makes sense.  I believe 1 is a righty and the other a lefty.  Either way, that D I posted is way better than not having Wis and having both Gleason and Hillen.  Is Hillen still under contract?

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