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I know they were both defensive liabilities...

Which would work well considering our D consists of a #1, a #4 ,and 5 #7/AHL Dmen. :facepalm2:   Let's take Hanifin/Strome/Marner and have a bright future.

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Rielly, Kessel, Toronto 24th for Semin, Canes 5th.

 

That should be the rumor. Somebody text Eklund.

 

The shoe would then be on the proverbial other foot in Toronto. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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If Toronto's #24 pick were thrown in, I suppose the deal would feel better. Then again, if Kessel and Kadri are the foundation for rebuilding a downtrodden team, why is Toronto willing to part with both of them, $14 million and a low first rounder for one 18 year old player? Either the 18 year old is expected to be really, really good, or Toronto finds something really, really bad about the players they wish to part with.

My fear is this is a PK driven salary dump which could happen whether GMRF is on board or not. The Canes need to do something to fire up the fan base (remember Tampa's "Got Stamkos" promotion after drafting their future star). I don't see a trade with Toronto for players they no longer want as being the way to regenerate interest in the Canes. Please keep the pick and use it.

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If Toronto's #24 pick were thrown in, I suppose the deal would feel better. Then again, if Kessel and Kadri are the foundation for rebuilding a downtrodden team, why is Toronto willing to part with both of them, $14 million and a low first rounder for one 18 year old player? Either the 18 year old is expected to be really, really good, or Toronto finds something really, really bad about the players they wish to part with.

My fear is this is a PK driven salary dump which could happen whether GMRF is on board or not. The Canes need to do something to fire up the fan base (remember Tampa's "Got Stamkos" promotion after drafting their future star). I don't see a trade with Toronto for players they no longer want as being the way to regenerate interest in the Canes. Please keep the pick and use it.

 

I'd be shocked if Toronto were actually offering up Kessel, Kadri, and #24OA for Semin and #5.  From their perspective, if #24 is on the table I'd bet they'd be asking for Skinner along with #5 and Semin (and no, I wouldn't consider that).  

 

The reason they'd be looking to deal certain players is fit.  Kessel is much less valuable to Toronto than he'd be with a team that's a contender now.  Kadri would be much more valuable to a team that's stable and has veteran leadership than the foundering mess that's the current Maple Leafs (where he could actually be a deterrent).    

 

I don't think either player fits the current Canes very well. But you've heard the story about the guy who starts out with a lunch box and turns it into a car through a series of trades where each trading partner overpays because they're offered exactly what they need? (for a small example, see LA and Sekera at this seasons trade deadline)  That's how I'd like to see GMRF take advantage of Toronto IF they're willing to pay a significant premium in an attempt to make their complete rebuild work.  And as part of that chain I'd love to see the Canes end up with a "third tier" prospect from this year's draft (Werenski, Rantanen, etc.) along with other assets.  Yes, I want to have my cake and eat it too!  :P  

Edited by LakeLivin

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Lake,

 

You're onto part of what I'm kicking around. The idea of picking #4 and #5 in this draft for a rebuidling team has to get really really intoxicating. Maybe said team overpays. There is overpayment there somewhere. See throwing Riely's name in there. At some point the deal would swing to our side at least in theory. Kessel and Kadri are both interesting because they are in one case a ppg All Star and the other a young #7 pick with proven 50 point ability and a lot of upside, who are both widely maligned in Toronto. That makes them ripe for being undervalued. Especially w/ Kessel's contract.

 

Adding an 80 point winger to the Staals and a 50-60 point second line center between Lindy and Skinner? Quick fix? Yes. They both have downside, but they also both have big upside.

 

It does flat out stink that we have the Russian Malaise to clear from the books and the team, because without that, who knows what we could get. But we DO have him and we have a series of mostly bad options with him. Being free and clear of his salary and his impact on the team offsets taking on baggage also.

 

The other thing about this deal if it happens is that it would seem pretty clear that E is willing to step into a more reasonalbe contract after this year, or is willing to be dealt. More likely the former. GMRF would never make this move if he didnt' think that E still had good hockey left, and would re sign at a lower level and hopefuly no NTC, I don't think. This would signal one last last last chance for Staal squared if this deal happens. I just think if E. is non commital or worse around staying or allowing a trade, Francis doesn't go for the quick fix.

 

So I am assuming Francis knows where the "hockey trade" is that he might consider: whatever combinations of players and picks woould balance out. Then tries to get them to sweeten that pot and make a non hockey trade (I'm kidding here, I mean one that we think is not balanced but favors us).

 

Personally I think it should take a very unbalanced trade to rest the #5 pick in this draft from us.

 

I have taken a fair amount of heat for suggesting it is at least worth looking at, while still not endorsing the deal, but if they are so hell bent on getting that pick, an overpayment might be worth looking at.

 

The whole thing could well be just rumor smoke and mirrors, or there could be some fire under that smoke. There is some smoke to it though.

Edited by remkin

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Again, just kicking the tires on this rumor. Looking through the mock drafts, one author said Marner finished the year with back to back concussions. I have raised, buried in a long post, that the other side of the equation on dealing the pick for Francis is if he is unsettled on the #5 pick itself.

 

I am assuming that we are good with Strome or Hanifin, but who knows, both have had detractors in the scouting world, but for the sake of argument, lets assume Francis thinks that Strome and Hanifin are gone at #5. Mitch Marner is the pick. That is the guy to take. But if he ended the year with 2 concussions, a team that has been hurt by this issue with another undersized offensive player, might be expected to weight that issue more heavily.

 

If we are uneasy about Marner's noggin, then the next logical player we are put on by mock drafters is Crouse. But Crouse is a high risk pick at #5. Yes, we all want a big bad guy who can score some prowling our ice, but at #5 he cannot end up as a third liner, which is a distinct possiblity for him. If it is Crouse vs. Kessel/Kadri/#24 pick/no Semin? Makes that deal look better to me, (but I'm not a Crouse at 5 fan).

 

Rantanen? I like him better than Crouse personally. Just has that big guy with skill look about him. I wager he ends up scoring much more than Crouse over the years. But he is hard to read playing in a men's league on big ice. He has been mock drafted all over the board.

 

Barzal? He is making a late push. Personally, I like him. He oozes elite playmaking skill. He lead Canada in the U18 Worlds with 12 points in 7 games. He is a pretty pure playmaker (not a big goal scorer, very pass-first), but then we could use an elite playmaker. Also he is fast and plays defense. But he has been injury prone, and until this month's batch of mocks he looked like a reach at #5.

 

Provorov and Werenski are thoughts, but they could be also seen as reaches at #5.

 

In Sum:

 

It is possible that GMRF and his scouting team are thinking Marner will fall to them and his concussions have them jittery. They may not like the risk of Crouse becoming a physical player who doesn't score much, and while they may like Rantanen, are not giddy about him or reaching to Barzal, or another defensman.

 

If those things are true, (and this is, as usual, rank speculation on my part), it would allow the exploration of what might be had for the pick. Thus, the Toronto rumors.

Edited by remkin

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And to change the subject, then again, not:

 

One Hockey Writer's "5 guys that NHL teams should trade now" includes:

 

Cam Ward (G) – Carolina Hurricanes

Once upon a time, Cam Ward was that rookie goaltender who led the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup back in 2006. Since then though, the Hurricanes have mostly been a bad team. Ward himself has fallen on some tough times with injuries, but he is still a valuable goaltender. A career .910 save percentage sounds pretty mediocre, but behind a better team, that number is probably much higher than where it currently sits. In 10 seasons in the league, Ward has only appeared in the playoffs one other time since winning the Cup. That was back in 2008-09.

Ward put up a solid .920 save percentage en route to the Cup in ’06, and was decent in ’09 with a .915 save percentage over 18 playoff games. Ward has one year left on his deal with a $6.3 million dollar cap hit. The 31-year-old could fetch the Hurricanes a first round pick or a highly rated prospect in return. Carolina isn’t winning the Stanley Cup any time soon, so moving Ward makes a whole lot of sense.

 

 

But then again, in the "not changing the subject vein, one of the other 5 guys that should be traded?

 

Phil Kessell....

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-nhl-stars-who-should-be-traded-this-summer/

 

 

Trading Ward has always been in the back of the mind. One more year left...may have value now. Reportedly a first rounder. Hmm if we did the deal w/ Toronto, and the traded Ward for another first rounder, we'd get our players off Toronto, and two first rounders this year and two next year....

Edited by remkin

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I still don't see how the prospect of adding Kessel and his $54m remaining on his contract makes sense for a "budget" team. Yes, Semin is gone, but it's like trading in a car that you are upside down on, and rolling it into the next loan. It ends up being worse. We have a bad Camaro that we can barely pay for, and some of you want to trade it in for a Ferrari with a questionable CarFax. Time to just turn in Semin and eat what's already invested (including the cost of buyout) or drive him until the wheels fall off. I think they are already off.

I see Ward's value at maybe a 2nd with $2m retained.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I still don't see how the prospect of adding Kessel and his $54m remaining on his contract makes sense for a "budget" team. Yes, Semin is gone, but it's like trading in a car that you are upside down on, and rolling it into the next loan. It ends up being worse. We have a bad Camaro that we can barely pay for, and some of you want to trade it in for a Ferrari with a questionable CarFax. Time to just turn in Semin and eat what's already invested (including the cost of buyout) or drive him until the wheels fall off. I think they are already off.

I see Ward's value at maybe a 2nd with $2m retained.

 

I understand your point about the perils of adding more long term debt. But to add more detail to your analogy, the Camaro is totaled and the dealership is willing to absorb the outstanding debt on it when you trade for the Ferrari (essentially discounting the Ferrari). If you think the potential problems with the Ferrari outweigh the discount you're getting, you obviously don't do it.

 

Assuming Semin is a complete bust (and is there really any other option at this point?) the net cost of Kessel over the next 7 years, after saving the cost of Semin's buyout, would be: $7.7m, $6.7m, $6,7m, $4.7m, $4,7, $3.7m, and $6m.  The effective cap hit for each of the next 7 years would be $5.7 per.

 

I'm just doing the math. I'm not saying those numbers justify such a trade. As I said elsewhere, I think Kessel would be a much better fit (and have more value) on a contending team that he could put over the top.  A potential problem with that is that another team would be paying Kessel's full contract (actual and cap hit).  

Edited by LakeLivin

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I understand your point about the perils of adding more long term debt. But to add more detail to your analogy, the Camaro is totaled and the dealership is willing to absorb the outstanding debt on it when you trade for the Ferrari (essentially discounting the Ferrari).

If you can barely afford the Camaro, you don't go shopping for a Ferrari. You especially don't do it when the new Mustang is out (Marner/Strome/Hanifin) and you can get 1st term buyers terms (entry level contract). Sometimes you have to leave one in a bad neighborhood with the keys in it.

Have you even considered the costs of service on the Ferrari?

Edited by super_dave_1

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When all the dust settles, I would still bet a Skinner trade is the most likely avenue to acquire the top pairing defenseman we badly need. Not sure what teams have enough defensemen who fit the bill and would like to take a chance that Skinner is still a 30 goal/year scorer, but somebody must be out there.

Re: trading Ward, even if he would bring back a first, who would we play in goal. Do we think Khudobin is a legit #1 NHL net minder? Even if we do, we need a credible backup, and until we signed Khudobin, I think we spent 7 or 8 years proving they are hard to come by. Arguably, a lot of Cam's recent troubles could be attributed to being overused for 7 or 8 years when our backups were very suspect (John Graham anyone).

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If you can barely afford the Camaro, you don't go shopping for a Ferrari. You especially don't do it when the new Mustang is out (Marner/Strome/Hanifin) and you can get 1st term buyers terms (entry level contract). Sometimes you have to leave one in a bad neighborhood with the keys in it.

Have you even considered the costs of service on the Ferrari?

 

I understand your point but you've got to admit, your analogy is breaking down. 

 

Semin's remaining contract is $7m per for 3 more years; Kessel's averages $7.7m but for 7 more years. So a more apt Kessel comparison would be to a newer, upgraded Camaro (LT vs. LS?) than to a Ferrari (which is an order of magnitude more expensive).  

 

Also, one hopes Stromarnifin is the new Mustang (or more), but that's not a given. There are risks (skating, size, and projecting a 17 yo defenseman, respectively) that each might not reach his hoped for ceiling. 

 

Hey, I'm nitpicking your analogy, not arguing that we definitely should make the deal (if it's even available).  I'm just saying that I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand like some others here would.  Especially if the TMLs included the 24OA pick along with Kessel and another "top roster" player (which I still don't believe they would unless we threw in something additional as well).  And IF I do the deal, I don't see it being a given that Kessel stays in Carolina.  As I mentioned, I think he has more value to a team on the brink of contention. I'd look to package him for young talent that better fits our vision. 

 

p.s. yeah, I'm aware of the costs of servicing a Ferrari; crazy, huh?

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I'm with the walk away from Kessel crowd. Contract is too big and long. We could be trading one problem child (Semin) for another. Kadri is more appealing to me. He could still become the player he is expected to be and young enough to be part of a rebuild. As an RFA we would need some assurance he would sign or is signed before a trade.  He is a center and that gives us some options with E in his contract year. If we sign E we have him as a winger and  a J Staal - Kadri - Rask - McClement  (not necessarily in that order) down the middle. If the one rumor that a deal would include Gardiner and the 24 makes it attractive to me. Addresses a D need and we still have a first round pick.

 

Having said this it is only a deal I would seriously consider. The #5 is the value in this trade. I might want to keep it.

 

and this morning on Spector's Hockey I saw the Leafs may be willing to move their 4 pick. Only to the extent they could be willing to listen.  I also have read that a deal with us would also hinge on Hanifin being available after the 3 pick. There are a lot of ifs in this rumor scenario.

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  I also have read that a deal with us would also hinge on Hanifin being available after the 3 pick. .

 

Gotta figure they want to go defense-offense with those picks: Hanfin plus Strome/Marner. Of course in a way that aspect makes the rumor more beleivable too.

 

The only thing on Kessel is that his NTC is limited, and the back half of his deal is "only" $7 million/year. It points out how just awful Semin's year was because we can't even trade him for the proverbial bag of hockey pucks. But assuming Kessel doesn't just shut down, he would be tradeable.

 

Again, I am not saying do the deal w/ Kessel, but when he is on his game he is an uber elite point producer, who could demand attention away from the Staals allowing them to be more effective, the way Semin did that one year.

 

I'm still officially in the take our pick camp because Kessel has that "coach killer" rep and Kadri has had some baggage too.

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I understand your point but you've got to admit, your analogy is breaking down. 

 

Semin's remaining contract is $7m per for 3 more years; Kessel's averages $7.7m but for 7 more years. So a more apt Kessel comparison would be to a newer, upgraded Camaro (LT vs. LS?) than to a Ferrari (which is an order of magnitude more expensive).  

 

Also, one hopes Stromarnifin is the new Mustang (or more), but that's not a given. There are risks (skating, size, and projecting a 17 yo defenseman, respectively) that each might not reach his hoped for ceiling. 

 

Hey, I'm nitpicking your analogy, not arguing that we definitely should make the deal (if it's even available).  I'm just saying that I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand like some others here would.  Especially if the TMLs included the 24OA pick along with Kessel and another "top roster" player (which I still don't believe they would unless we threw in something additional as well).  And IF I do the deal, I don't see it being a given that Kessel stays in Carolina.  As I mentioned, I think he has more value to a team on the brink of contention. I'd look to package him for young talent that better fits our vision. 

 

p.s. yeah, I'm aware of the costs of servicing a Ferrari; crazy, huh?

But there are risks in every draft.  Should we trade away all our picks every year?  And as far as risks, I'd rather have a bust on an entry level contract ,than a bust at $8million/yr cap hit, especially when the cap hit and actual salary for Kessell will be well above Stromarnifin's untill at least 2020.  And what would we garner from Mystery Team #3?

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But there are risks in every draft.  Should we trade away all our picks every year?  And as far as risks, I'd rather have a bust on an entry level contract ,than a bust at $8million/yr cap hit, especially when the cap hit and actual salary for Kessell will be well above Stromarnifin's untill at least 2020.  And what would we garner from Mystery Team #3?

 

I think you missed that in large part I was pointing out flaws in s_d's analogy. He presented Stromarnifin as a "new Mustang".  You buy a new Mustang and you know exactly what you're getting.  I'd say Stromarnifin is more like buying a well pedigreed colt. You have a good chance of it becoming a good (or even great) racehorse, but until it actually races you won't know for sure.  That's not an argument against buying a colt.  It just points out that buying a colt comes with uncertainty that buying a car doesn't. 

 

If I thought you intentionally meant to be snarky when you asked "should we trade away all our picks every year?" I'd respond with "should we never trade a draft pick under any circumstances?"  I don't, so my response is: no, you only trade a draft pick when you believe it's in the best interest of your team to do so.  You do an analysis, and one component of that analysis is development risk, which will vary by prospect.  I'm not saying how heavily you should weight that component, but you've got to admit, it is a legitimate component, no? 

 

I'll repeat, I'm not arguing that we should necessarily do a deal involving Kessel.  But if Toronto is willing to significantly overpay for the #5 pick (because that's the best move for their rebuild), I'd like to at least consider our options instead of dismissing any trade out of hand.  And I do think Kessel could be flipped.  Sure he has flaws, but I think he has more value than most here give him credit for. The guy is a proven elite NHL scorer, not a Riley Nash or a Chris Terry. 

 

What do I want to garner from Mystery Team 3? Young talent or picks in this years draft.  Here's an example: San Jose has said it's not building for the future; It expects to win now. You don't think they'd consider Kessel for their #9oa pick plus later picks?  9oa gets us a "3rd tier" player in this year's draft.  I'll take Werenski or Rantanen, thank you very much! ;)

Edited by LakeLivin

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Lake, by trying to pick apart my analogy, I think you miss my point. Moving Semin in a deal that brings in Kessel just compounds the money issue unless Kessel is moved again. Don't forget that Kessel has a pesky NTC too. My point is that the #5 pick in this draft is the most valuable asset in the Canes cupboard. I would hate to see it devalued by Semin.

If Kessel is so flippable, then why hasn't Totonto flipped him already?

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" IF Kessel is so flippable, then why hasn't Toronto flipped him already", super_dave, that's the part of this discussion that I keep coming back to. We're reassured that Kessel is the sniper extraordinaire, and Kadri just needs to get away from the toxic climes of Toronto to gain his next level, yet they both remain on a dysfunctional team.

 

Then it's been suggested that since Kessel doesn't seem to fit in a Peters' scheme, he could possibly be part of a 3 way deal. Course, once we have him in the fold, he then becomes our problem, what, thru 2022? Now, if he was Toronto's dilemma, they'd just buy him out, but we do not have the where with all!

 

No, all this is just plain smoke and mirrors by an elitist team that thinks they are entitled to any whim. I just think you're correct in not giving up the most valuable pick in one of the deepest draft classes in some time to rid ourselves of our JR legacy.

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Rumors and Trade Speculation is a place to talk about the latest trade rumors floating around the off-season hockey sites,blogs,newspapers and various sources.

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I think you missed that in large part I was pointing out flaws in s_d's analogy. He presented Stromarnifin as a "new Mustang".  You buy a new Mustang and you know exactly what you're getting.  I'd say Stromarnifin is more like buying a well pedigreed colt. You have a good chance of it becoming a good (or even great) racehorse, but until it actually races you won't know for sure.  That's not an argument against buying a colt.  It just points out that buying a colt comes with uncertainty that buying a car doesn't. 

 

If I thought you intentionally meant to be snarky when you asked "should we trade away all our picks every year?" I'd respond with "should we never trade a draft pick under any circumstances?"  I don't, so my response is: no, you only trade a draft pick when you believe it's in the best interest of your team to do so.  You do an analysis, and one component of that analysis is development risk, which will vary by prospect.  I'm not saying how heavily you should weight that component, but you've got to admit, it is a legitimate component, no? 

 

I'll repeat, I'm not arguing that we should necessarily do a deal involving Kessel.  But if Toronto is willing to significantly overpay for the #5 pick (because that's the best move for their rebuild), I'd like to at least consider our options instead of dismissing any trade out of hand.  And I do think Kessel could be flipped.  Sure he has flaws, but I think he has more value than most here give him credit for. The guy is a proven elite NHL scorer, not a Riley Nash or a Chris Terry. 

 

What do I want to garner from Mystery Team 3? Young talent or picks in this years draft.  Here's an example: San Jose has said it's not building for the future; It expects to win now. You don't think they'd consider Kessel for their #9oa pick plus later picks?  9oa gets us a "3rd tier" player in this year's draft.  I'll take Werenski or Rantanen, thank you very much! ;)

I wouldn't say never.  If the hypothetical trade was the 5th and Semin for OEL or Ekblad and their team's pick 1st Rounder, I'd giddily consider it.  But if I'm GMRF, I want a trade that make my team younger, better, and cheaper(and NTC-less)  Kessel helps with none of these.(OK, more goals than Sasha, but half the League would do that for us).

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Jordon to Pittsburgh was mentioned again in this mornings rumors but was discounted quickly. I don't see that happening either.

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I think Ron Francis himself actually shot this one down.

 

He did at trade deadline and this speculation was generated from that time period. I don't think there is any new rumor here just throwing out a player that apparently had interest from the Pens and other clubs at the deadline. The conclusion is J will be with the Canes next season.

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I imagine Pitts would like to have JStaal, but they are in a corner with contracts and the only way to trade for J would be do dump off bad contracts on the Canes.  Of course, the king of the "quick fix" is in Pittsburgh and he is ultra comfortable with players that he knows.  If the decision to move on from EStaal has been made and discussed (I have no clue), then I could see J wanting to move.  Money wise, I just don't see how Pittsburgh makes it fit.

 

disclaimer: the only reason I respond to this nonsense is that I have no sense to respond to.

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Again, I'm just providing some rationale for the trade. 99% are on the "this is pure insanity" side of the equation.

 

Kessel is out of shape may be true. I don't know. But the guy played every single game of all of the last 5 seasons. Every game. Read that again: that is 376 consecutive games. Now saying he "could" be injury prone at some point? Really? Compared to the concussion prone Skinner (who could be trade bait if we picked up Kessel and is every bit as soft and plays even less defense)?

 

He also puts up points. He had a down year last year w/ 25 goals and 65 points on an abysmal team? Let's see. How many players on our team would have killed for that down year? Oh I don't know....ALL of them. Kessel's off, "out of shape" year would have been #1 on our team by 11 points. Imagine what a change of scenery might provide.

 

I'm not saying do it, but there are legitimate reasons to consider it, especially if we could get the pot sweetened.

 

A lot of what rem said above. To clarify my thoughts/ position:

 

Sounds like the TMLs are blowing it up. Imo, they are going to have to deeply discount their assets if they conduct a firesale.

 

Yes, there are very legitimate concerns/ issues with a TML deal involving Kessel and/ or Kadri.

 

The #5 pick is more valuable this year than most years. So are subsequent lower picks. I'm guessing players in this years top 3 or 4 "draft tiers" might be equivalent to players one tier up most other years? E.g., seems like this years #5oa might = #2oa most years; I'd guess 2015 #s 6-11oa prospects might equal most years 3-6oa?        

 

There is extra value to a good player on an entry level contract once he starts to fulfill his potential and contribute at the NHL level (especially to a budget team like the Canes).

 

There is real value to the Canes if we could get to another team to completely clear Semin's contract (especially to a budget team like the Canes).

 

I've never blindly advocated a trade such as we've been discussing; I've just said that if TMLs are willing to overpay enough, I don't automatically rule it out. 

 

Last I looked, there have been zero NHL trades since March 2nd. I guess that means every player in the league is worthless/ untradable? Ok, sorry, now that's pretty snarky :P.  But seriously, trades don't happen until after the Cup is over, so the fact that TMLs still have Kessel and Kadri on their roster doesn't mean much with respect to their value. If a Canes - TML deal only makes sense for the Canes if Kessel is flipped as part of it, I'd expect that GMRF would have that worked out before pulling the trigger. If you can't work it out you don't do the deal.

 

I would expect GMRF to exercise extreme diligence on the components and only make a deal if the likely rewards/ benefits exceed the risks/ costs. As rem alluded to earlier, in evaluating all the pluses and minuses in a scenario such as we're discussing, I have to trust the insight & expertise of GMRF and the Canes braintrust.

 

In summary, I agree that most of the concerns/ issues many have raised are completely valid and need to be taken into account in evaluating any deal. I just don't share what feel is a conclusion by many that any deal should be ruled out "out of hand".

 

       

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