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The great E Staal Has Been Traded Thread

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One thing is for sure.  With E. and Cam and another possible set of high draft picks, we are going to find out a lot about RF this year.

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One thing is for sure.  With E. and Cam and another possible set of high draft picks, we are going to find out a lot about RF this year.

 

Very true. Francis took inherited several contracts, but the big 4 were Semin, Both Staals, and Ward. He dealt with Semin. Now he deals with at least the next two, and as you say, how he handles them will tell us a lot about Francis. IMHO he has made mostly good moves to this point, but these are the biggies. He doesn't need to get them perfect, but he has to avoid getting them wrong.

 

Based only on inferences, I get the feeling that Francis wants to make this team his way. This has not been doable with the NTC's given to Ward and Staal, and the big contracts. He is finally getting to a point where this does not have to be the case anymore. I just can't seem him finally getting loose from the ropes that tied him, only to tie himself up again. So I'm confident Francis will not mess this up.

 

I'm not sure that this team can really be remade w/ these guys still here, especially Eric, since he is Captain and "face of the franchise", but I am pretty sure it cannot be done with these guys still here on big contracts commanding NTC's. I really doubt many, if any on this board would disagree with that.

 

I would predict that Eric is gone this winter.

 

I think Francis really wants to build his team. On top of all of the other issues, Eric is kind of like our Sidney Crosby, admittedly at a lower level. He has simply had too much power historically. I wonder if that can be undone cleanly. There is a lot being made of Sidney and all the coaches he's fired, uh been through. While it is less so now, it is clear that during JR's tenure Eric was the golden boy with a direct line to Uncle JR. He has seen multiple coaches come and go without much success. This has been an issue in the past and still plays in now.

 

I guess I'm saying that for Eric to stay, would require so many issues to be overcome, that it is really hard to see it happening.

 

Things to overcome from Francis' vantage;

 

1. Eric seems to be a declining point producer, and 50 point, sub 20 goal seasons are very possibly the new norm.

2. Does he want Eric to be the Captain for the next 4 years?

3. Will Eric keep his defensive game improved, or revert back under a new deal. (I see this as a major point of concern, if Eric's now a 50 point guy playing his historical way, he will be a hugely minus player. Remember this guy was once #620/620 in the league in plus minus).

4. NTC, even limited is not ideal.

5. Jordan still here, w/ NTC. What has been the effect of two Staals wearing 2/3 of the letters in the locker room? is that what Francis wants? Would Eric give up the "C"? How does that tend to work out? Right now, w/ both Staals on huge deals with NTC's, they have too much power over Francis. Cannot renew that.

 

Then there is the matter of money.

 

A 50 point player can be had for under $5 million. Would Eric sign for that with the open market beckoning this offseason? Less than little Bro? I doubt it. Yet he's not really worth much more IMHO.

 

And Francis has said he wants to draft and develop. I still have to think E draws a first rounder. This is a very deep draft, especially in the area of our need, forwards. Francis has to be licking his chops at a first rounder in this draft while also jettisoning all of the problems just listed.

 

From Eric's point of view:

 

If Francis is not Uncle JR and his holding the line at $5.5 million and no NTC, and btw "we might come for the "C" this off-season" if we do sign you, then the deal won't be that tempting.  And if the weight of the remaining games vs. NJ/Chicago and Washington do their expected job and we find ourselves >10 points out by New Year's and thus eliminated from the playoffs again (we are 9 out now), then Eric might really see the wisdom in jettisoning.

 

Get to a playoff contender with at least one slick winger, maybe get the numbers up and have a nice playoff showing. Both more fun and up the UFA value. At this point that probably looks better than another dead end season in front of a small audience.

 

Too many things favor a change.

Edited by remkin

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Actually he rolled off 100 points (2nd Line Center) 70, and 82 and then was given the big contract.  As a reminder it was said back then he was a 100 pt possible player, and just coming into his own.  He never panned out as a shut down capable two way center like the one he replaced here.  In fact having watched many games from my season seats its striking how many goals ES has scored when the game was decieded which have somewhat padded the stats he has.  Say many things about him, Selke finalist wont be in that group and any top 20 forward in this league should hope to be in that conversation when they play center. 

 

Its simple really even for those that feel the need to apologize for Eric. The number of big game-winning goals, steals, blocked shots, checks etc.. he has made are actually astonishingly few given the fact he was the face of this franchise and paid well to be for years.

 

Given the shortcomings and lazy play I can't see frankly why anyone would want him back here, other than the fact he has never embarrassed the franchise and helped us win a Stanley Cup when the other teams top line was focusing on the first line not the one he played on.

 

I wont even get into the dismal F/O's that he has at least improved a bit over the last 5 or so years.  We are not a talented enough team for pampered players that don't screen the goalie, don't setup others with nifty assists, glide back on defense, take longer shifts than they should, and take silly penalties often when we are in our own offensive zone.  Our limited resources are precious.  Too much so to retain players that don't play all phases of the game.  I will take a team with slow Cory Stillmans, blue collar Justin Williams or other type players any day over shoulda - coulda - woulda. That's a position from watching up close, even though somehow some may think its the former GM's fault ES rarely helps this team actually win games.

 

 

 

He was never projected to be a 100 point player. You can't say he was projected to be a 90-100 point player because of 1 season just after the lock out he put up 100 points. EVERY player that year put up higher numbers that season. If you even saw the profile of him in the draft, he was projected to be a great 2-way center, playmaker, that would need to work on his offense. 

 

And he can't help that Rutherford paid him to be a 100 point player. If your boss came to you and said i'm going to pay you my salary, are you going to say no i'm not worth that? No your not. 

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The original question for this thread can get very complicated if the Canes continue their recent play.  Eric hasn't really been a key part of the resurgence, but if in smelling distance of top 8 in conference RF will have something else to think about.

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The original question for this thread can get very complicated if the Canes continue their recent play.  Eric hasn't really been a key part of the resurgence, but if in smelling distance of top 8 in conference RF will have something else to think about.

 

I don't know if being "in smelling distance of top 8" is going to complicate negotiations with E. Staal all that much. It seems pretty clear that GMRF is going to argue that, despite the team's position in the standings, the Hurricanes are only getting the performance of a $5 million (or so) player out of a guy who is making $9.5 million.

 

Could E. make more than $5 million on the UFA market? Possibly, maybe probably. Is that reason to increase the Hurricanes' offer to him? I dunno. GMRF knows a lot more about that than I do, so I'll defer to his superior knowledge.

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I don't know if being "in smelling distance of top 8" is going to complicate negotiations with E. Staal all that much. It seems pretty clear that GMRF is going to argue that, despite the team's position in the standings, the Hurricanes are only getting the performance of a $5 million (or so) player out of a guy who is making $9.5 million.

 

Could E. make more than $5 million on the UFA market? Possibly, maybe probably. Is that reason to increase the Hurricanes' offer to him? I dunno. GMRF knows a lot more about that than I do, so I'll defer to his superior knowledge.

 

I don't know if it would complicate signing discussions with E, but seems like it could complicate trade negotiations (either timing or the type of return we'd accept in a trade).  If we're clearly out of it I think we'd be more open to getting back assets that are further out from helping the team.  If we're in sniffing distance of the playoffs, seems like GMRF would have a much harder time moving E without getting something back that he could at least sell to fans as keeping hope alive for a continued playoff push  this season.

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I'm hoping that if we make a run and fall just short of the playoffs we don't hear the famous words from our owner "we like our team". It took some time to learn the new system of our coach. Look out for this team in 2016-17. If we offer Ward and Staal reduced contracts and they are accepted and we remain status quo, it will push me closer to the edge!

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In fact having watched many games from my season seats its striking how many goals ES has scored when the game was decieded which have somewhat padded the stats he has.

 

This.

 

I've been saying it for a long time: Leading team scoring when said team serially does not make the playoffs does not impress me. My greatest hope? Eric absolutely lights up the Capitals on New Year's Eve, and is traded on Jan. 1. New Year, new team. Let's do this, already.

 

Ain't gonna happen - but a fella can dream, can't he?

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I don't know if it would complicate signing discussions with E, but seems like it could complicate trade negotiations (either timing or the type of return we'd accept in a trade).  If we're clearly out of it I think we'd be more open to getting back assets that are further out from helping the team.  If we're in sniffing distance of the playoffs, seems like GMRF would have a much harder time moving E without getting something back that he could at least sell to fans as keeping hope alive for a continued playoff push  this season.

 

That's true, Lake, to a degree. I think GMRF would get a lot of grief for trading E. if we were close to making the playoffs. However, I don't think it muddies the trade waters as much as you think. I don't know what E. could bring in return, but I think it would be safe to assume that it would be a like-for-like trade - the Hurricanes get rid of a guy who is on pace for a 48-50-point season (15-16 goals, 33-34 assists) and get a 48-50 point guy.

 

At that point, if the team is close to the playoffs with E., they're no less likely to be close to the playoffs without him. Now, if you argue that E. is valuable enough to get someone better than a 48-to-50-point scorer, then there's no question that you trade him, if he'll approve it.

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I keep coming back to the deal. A panel of blinded experts looking at just his stats for the past 2.5 years would likely come up with a very different number than Eric and his agent probably have in mind. Further, the UFA market has to be tempting. As guys currently headed there start re -signing w/ their teams, Eric wlll be more and more overvalued by the seller's market.

 

In the big, picture, long term view I think Francis wants this team to break one way or the other very soon. All of the probabilities still heavily favor no playoffs, even if the team plays much better the rest of the way. Thus, I still think Francis has to be a seller. Problem of course is Eric's NTC. This is where the team being clearly out of it again, maybe even having a stretch of bad play probalby moves Eric's head over to the idea that a change of scenery and playoffs is probably in his best interest also.

 

I still think at one level Francis strongly wants to build HIS team, and the only way to do that w/ Eric here is a reduction in Eric's status, and no NTC. He has to hold to a much lower number and no NTC at the minimum. I just really doubt Eric takes that. If he does? Great.

 

If not? Get the max return possible given the NTC and move on. I have to think he fetches at least a first round pick, probably that plus a player.

Edited by remkin

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That's true, Lake, to a degree. I think GMRF would get a lot of grief for trading E. if we were close to making the playoffs. However, I don't think it muddies the trade waters as much as you think. I don't know what E. could bring in return, but I think it would be safe to assume that it would be a like-for-like trade - the Hurricanes get rid of a guy who is on pace for a 48-50-point season (15-16 goals, 33-34 assists) and get a 48-50 point guy.

 

At that point, if the team is close to the playoffs with E., they're no less likely to be close to the playoffs without him. Now, if you argue that E. is valuable enough to get someone better than a 48-to-50-point scorer, then there's no question that you trade him, if he'll approve it.

 

I'm not so sure about a like-for-like trade Jon.  The closer we get to the deadline the more likely it becomes that an acquiring team has to consider the possibility that they're getting E as a rental.  The only teams that are going to do that are ones looking to boost their playoff potential, whether it's to get in or for a better chance at actually winning the Cup.  Those teams are looking to boost their overall talent level rather than exchange a similar level of assets.  On that front, seems like they'd be much more generous with picks and/or prospects than they would with their current roster.  The Sekera trade last year is a good example.  Kings were willing to give up a 1st and a good young prospect, but didn't part with any of their current at that time players.

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I'd be trying to move ES for a blue chip prospect that was drafted recently that is ready to make the jump rather than a draft choice. The team that makes the trade is going to be picking late in the 1st. I'd rather have a guy that's a year closer to playing in the NHL. To me, that "A" prospect plus another asset is where I'd be angling.

ES will help a team that's close much more than that prospect would...this year.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I agree with Lake; the closer we get to deadline the more E becomes a rental player for a contending team. A contending team is not going to trade even up. I won't be surprised that if we trade E ( not a certainty at this point) we will get draft pick(s) or prospects in return. I wouldn't be surprised if we had to retain some salary or take back a less than desirable contract. But if so it would only be for four months and we would have gotten something instead of taking the chance of watching him walk at the end of the season.

 

I'm not convinced E won't be re-signed but I'm not convinced he won't be traded either.

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I highly doubt a single game does anything to his value at this point.

 

Are you kidding? He just upped his season goal total by 40%!  If he keeps doing that he'll have 103 goals after just 8 more games!

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Are you kidding? He just upped his season goal total by 40%!  If he keeps doing that he'll have 103 goals after just 8 more games!

 

Wonder what his trade value would be after 8 games like that? ;-)

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Are you kidding? He just upped his season goal total by 40%!  If he keeps doing that he'll have 103 goals after just 8 more games!

With all due respect...

943d102d8ccd08b6ad6677f5b9a5447e0d683b13

Edited by super_dave_1

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I don't really care if Eric is producing well or if the team or if we're *only* 7 points out of the playoffs, you trade him no matter what. Sure, we want to believe we can make the playoffs and want to do everything we can to get in, but at this point with this team, that kind thinking is dangerous and 6 years of it under JR are what has put us in this position. RF said he wants this team to be contender every year. Do we want to be like Calgary who rode their team at their best last year and now they've regressed back to the mean? Playoff hopes come at the expense of keeping the integrity of our rebuild. You also have to remember that while we're 7 points out of playoffs we're 4 points away from 30th. Plus to overcome that 7 point gap we'd have to overcome 5 other teams in the hunt including the underperforming Pens and Bolts who might just pick up their game the next half of the season. Sorry if I sound like the doomsayer but it seems like people are flying a little too high  :rolleyes: Anyway, with that rant through, let's get back to Eric. I think we deal him ASAP for a Sekera deal like return, but with a top 6 potential winger prospect (In place of D prospect in McKeown) and a roster player to offset salary. If Eric wants to come back in July he can, but on the team's terms. Limited money and term, A instead of C, and no priority on the center position. If he doesn't come back I won't be too sad. Aside from those 2 goals, it just seems like he's declining. 35 year old Eric at $7 mil could look really ugly.

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Ain't gonna happen - but a fella can dream, can't he?

 

This is really weird, but I woke up this morning from a vivid dream where the 6PM news lead with news of Staal's trade to Toronto.  it was really, really weird to wake up and think he was traded!  I may be reading this board too much.  The details were so exact.  John Forslund even appeared and said, "He may find his next gear with the Leafs."

 

Dang, I can't remember such a vivid dream that actually had me tricked for a few minutes as to whether it was real or not!

 

I need to lay off the holiday eggnog...

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Guys, I think RF will make an honest assessment of the team's direction by 15 Jan...if he thinks that we really have a shot at that point, he'll wait for the trades til the deadline.  If not, I think we'll see a trade or two before the end of the month...to get a lead on the market before all hell breaks loose in February.

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RF is going to make his pay grade with this team.  He has a tough job ahead.

 

As for E. Staal, why wake up now?  What is it about New Years? 

We said this last year, but here we go again.  Let's just start the season first of the year.  Appears our Captain loves New Years games.  We need to get him to love October.

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It's nice that ES has had a couple of good games.  RF has to already know if he thinks ES is part of the picture going ahead.  No matter where the Canes are in the standings, he can not afford to lose ES for nothing.  If RF wants to retain ES, he needs to make whatever offer he is willing to make.  If ES's agent turns it down, telephone time.

 

While I want the playoffs as much as anybody, there is just too much ground to make up in the standings to think the Canes have a realistic shot.  Current numbers show us with about a 7% chance at the playoffs (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html).%C2'> That means there's a 93% chance that RF needs to make this team better for the future and not concern himself with chasing a unicorn.

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The E Staal issue is the issue. And it is really hard to know what to think because for me at least, it all comes down to numbers and Eric's willingness to waive his NTC. I have to think if this team makes a hard run at the playoffs, he is not going to want to waive, even if Francis wants to move him.

 

In my mind we have to look at signing or trading Eric from our end without regard to making the playoffs. OK if this team goes 10-2 or something, dang, it would be hard to hold to that, but still. I agree w/ Super Dave that we must get something if he isn't signed. So, by some date, ideally before the deadline, we fish or cut bait on Eric.

 

That said, IF Eric would sign for a reasonable deal, $5.5 million no NTC, for instance, I'd still sign him. Remember, he can still be traded. (My one caveat is if we could somehow get Ryan Johannsen, who Columbus might just let go under value). If Eric is thinking much higher numbers and insisting on NTC (maybe allow a very limited, ie pick 6 no trade teams NTC could work), then we must move him EVEN if we are in the playoff mix.

 

As to playoffs? We are legitimately competing with 5 teams for essentially one spot. That is 1/6 of those teams will get in. All 5 of those teams are ahead of us in the standings.  At 6 points out and with the way this team is playing, it really could be us. But unless we go from 6 points out to actually IN the playoff position and continuing this play, it is still a long shot. We cannot come up empty on return for Eric.

 

So, I would say that I am agreeing with AWAC on this. Francis probably wants to see if this kind of play will continue, or if this is our annual fakeout, where we look really really good for about 15 games, then....fizzle. If not? And Eric keeps playing like now? I think he might up the offer to Eric in money terms (but still way bellow $7-8 million) but he has to hold on the NTC IMHO.

 

If Eric would, in the end, take $6 million and no NTC at all? Hmmmmm. So long as he is around 50 points he could always be traded, for at least a first rounder...

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