Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
AWACSooner

The great E Staal Has Been Traded Thread

Recommended Posts

The dropoff I've seen is the last three seasons including so far this one. And each has been worse than the last. That would be 13-14, 14-15, 15-16.

 

Still, the point about E being worth more at least offensively, up to that point, than we may feel like giving him credit for now is a good one. Of course his new contract would be about predicting then next 4-5 years. It would seem unwlse to do that by going back more than 2.5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What complicates things is that scoring in general has been trending down during that time as well. So just looking at Staal's numbers year to year exaggerates his decline. Though I agree that contract numbers should take into account that as the years go by, he is less likely to be an impact player and more likely to be a support/role player. Contracts can be structured that way, though, so that shouldn't be an impediment, as long as both sides are agreeable. And he plays a style that should serve him even into later years as a bottom six player, so that minimizes the risk somewhat, even with a mid-length contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In this year of contract renewal, when those who are interested in staying with the team by showcasing their best work, we have Eric Staal. On pace for a whopping 45, that's right boys and girls, 45 points. 

 

There will be a years supply of Rice-A -Roni for you on the way out. Thanks for playing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw this come across yesterday and found it quite interesting. Why? Because I continue to see/read how people think Eric didn't do his job here because we only made the playoffs twice while he has been with the team or how he hasn't earned his pay. And because I see mention of these same names as players people  would take on their team and who I've seen mentioned (not particularly on this board) as being better players than Eric, but seeing the numbers like this, kind of makes one see that he isn't as bad as people portray him to be. I think and can understand, people being frustrated since we haven't seen playoff hockey since 2009, shoot I am, but to call out someones character or saying they are dogging it, etc, is wrong. If they were truely dogging it, ok, but it's clear Eric is not. No, the goals are not going for him, as we saw yesterday where had seriously had like 3 grand opportunities and missed on all 3, but it isn't for lack of effort or dogging it. I'm just not sure who people think can take his place if he does not return.

 

Here's a list of the Top 10 skaters from the 2003 draft class, ranked by points:

E. Staal    G-321; A-451; P-772

R.Getzlaf  G-212; A-500; P-712

T. Vanek  G-312; A-325; P-637

C. Perry   G-317; A-320; P-637

P. Bergeron G-225; A-370; P-595

Z. Parise   G-291; A-303; P-594

J. Carter   G-296; A-261; P-557

J. Pavelski  G-253; A-283; P-536

M. Richards  G-179; A-303; P-482

L. Eriksson   G-197; A-283; P-480

 

 So how do these people compare on the economic impact to their teams ? Also how many playoff appearances for each?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

                     Games Played        Points         Points / game         Playoff games

 

 

Eric Staal          900                       772                .857                               43

Getzlaf              756                       712                .941                               97

Vanek               794                       637                ,802                               63

Perry                 772                       637               .825                                90

Bergeron          792                       595                .751                                95

Parise               734                       595                .810                                89

Carter               764                       557                .729                              111

Pavelski            694                       536                ,730                                81

Richards           718                       482                .671                              124

Eriksson            695                       481               .692                                34

 

Looks like Eric has very little impact on the teams ability to make the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly.  Also this is just a group of his draft class.  Of which keep in mind he was the #1 rated skater.  In this group he went 2nd overall to a Goaltender.  So when you figure out Eric's pay vs production even in his very own class of which he was clearly projected to be the top skater - I think the case can be made just how far short he has come.  In fact when you look at the number of games Eric has actually played in (he leads the others by 100) and Erics dismal +/- carreer numbers the point seems to me just how grossly overpaid he has been these years where he has actually made little impact on his teams ability to win games.

 

Staal is still a "-"  in 8 of his 11 years including a year we won the cup with him as a 2nd line center.  I'd say that pretty much sums it up.  Its not a beef with his old pay, so much as a point he doesn't seem to help his team win games.  What else do you play a player for?

 

 

 

 

                     Games Played        Points         Points / game         Playoff games

 

 

Eric Staal          900                       772                .857                               43

Getzlaf              756                       712                .941                               97

Vanek               794                       637                ,802                               63

Perry                 772                       637               .825                                90

Bergeron          792                       595                .751                                95

Parise               734                       595                .810                                89

Carter               764                       557                .729                              111

Pavelski            694                       536                ,730                                81

Richards           718                       482                .671                              124

Eriksson            695                       481               .692                                34

 

Looks like Eric has very little impact on the teams ability to make the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What complicates things is that scoring in general has been trending down during that time as well. So just looking at Staal's numbers year to year exaggerates his decline. Though I agree that contract numbers should take into account that as the years go by, he is less likely to be an impact player and more likely to be a support/role player. Contracts can be structured that way, though, so that shouldn't be an impediment, as long as both sides are agreeable. And he plays a style that should serve him even into later years as a bottom six player, so that minimizes the risk somewhat, even with a mid-length contract.

 

That is true in terms of comparing those guys total numbers. But if one compares each guy's ranking in points and goals, that take the absolute numbers out. And adjusts for yearly overall trends.  Id' do just for the past 3 years.

 

But since that would be a pain, I can say that as I posted somewhere, E is around #100 in points and #150 in goals for forwards this year. That's in one year, so trends are accounted for.  I think it fair to say he's not being paid commensurate with that now, or really any of the last 3 years.

 

More importantly though would be predicting the next several years.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple of thoughts on E:

 

I think all of us agree that he's been way overpaid for his recent play.  But that money is gone and I don't see how it's relevant with respect to future negotiations.  The question is: what's he worth to the team going forward? (for the record, I don't think Es view and RFs view on that will overlap)

 

If we trade E while we're still making a run at the playoffs, the bottom line is that from a personnel perspective you're not replacing him with Rask or Lindholm.  Positionally maybe. but you already had those guys in the lineup.  You're replacing him with Terry, Malone, or maybe McGinn, one of the forwards who currently occupy the press box or play in Charlotte.  I'm of the belief that that would most likely kill any realistic playoff run at that point. Not because it's E in particular, but because I don't think we can overcome losing any of our top 8 or so forwards.  I think we're outplaying our talent level as it is and I don't see us as being deep or robust enough to "domino in" a replacement. 

 

Which is not to say that dealing E regardless of where we stand isn't RFs best play considering the long term.  But I do think it signals an end to any realistic run at a playoff spot. Which might be gone within the next couple of games anyways if we lose our next 2 and the other teams balance out the schedule.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

If my math is right - from the 2009-2010 season through last season:

 

Getzlaf G-120; A-288; P-408
Perry G-205; A-202; P-407
Staal G-148; A-236; P-384
Pavelski G-170; A-188; P-358
Vanek G-154; A-194; P-348
Erikson G-126; A-202; P-328
Bergeron G-126; A-196; P-322
Parise G-152; A-161; P-313
Carter G-171; A-135; P-306
Richards G-100; A-161; P-261

 

Wow, thanks for putting that together, Invis.

 

If anything, this (together with winger's compilation) proves a point I've been making for about three years now: Eric's points are "meaningless," i.e., when your team hasn't made the playoffs in seven years, it doesn't matter how many points you tally. Everybody's still playing golf in May.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But I do think it signals an end to any realistic run at a playoff spot.  

You may be right.

 

But there are 21 other guys who might have something to say about it.  ;)

 

I believed at the time (and still do) that at least part of BP's calculation in getting Ryan over the summer was the possibility that Eric would be gone by the deadline, and BP's confidence that regardless what happens with E, the team would be well on its way to playing BP's way.

 

I think BP's comments about wanting to get Lindy back to center soon have to be tempered with his other comments, that Lindy was rushed up the depth chart. So while I don't disagree with your assessment that moving Rask or Jordan to 1C and making Lindy 3C is simply shuffling guys we already have, bringing Ryan up at 3C for the rest of the year would represent a real change. So too would be getting someone (versus a pick) back for Eric, which I think is a real possibility. Here's why.

 

Given his numbers and the picks we already have in hand, I think there a much greater opportunity now than there was even in October that Eric could be marketed as, and could bring back, a "needs-a-change-of-scenery" type player - especially if a Nash or Gerbs is included in the deal.

 

If that happens - say we get an underperforming top-nine wing for Eric and one of our other UFAs - the stretch drive could remain interesting. And if it doesn't happen, but we bring Ryan up as a 3C, the odds of it remaining interesting would be, IMO, as good they are with Eric on the roster.

 

Of course, we have four other UFA skaters (besides E, Gerbs and Nash) to deal with before the deadline, too. So I think discounting our stretch drive based solely on whether Eric stays or goes discounts what could come back if someone else is packaged with him.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RF gives E's agent a number. E's agent comes back with a higher number. The difference between the two will make up RF's mind (IMO). I feel that RF will not entertain a lot of back and forth and if the difference is too great, he will move to trade E (if the return is right), no matter where the team sits in the standings. Hopefully this will happen soon.

What Staal has made in the past is irrelevant going forward. His value is what it is. If he and his agent use his last contract as a base, he's gone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

top, I love your analysis, and also agree that RF cannot be leveraged by the fear/hope/dream that he must hold on to Eric to preserve ANY chance of a playoff run. Unfortunately there is no answer to this conundrum, but I trust that if their is a deal to be made, "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead"!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get a feeling that things behind the scenes are not going well and this won't end well.  Just a gut.

 

My guess is they are not coming to terms, and any trade is not to E.'s liking, so it is UFA water test time.

 

Of course, I am probably wrong.  But this just doesn't feel good at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to think that part of the equation for both Eric and Cam was "show me". Show me you still have it in you to produce. Eric has been declining every year, and this is on pace to be his worst offensive year yet. After knowing that one of the major issues that lead to Francis being hired was JR's big contracts, how on Earth does Francis make any kind of offer that is even close to what Eric thinks he's worth, let alone, what the UFA market might bring.

 

I think Francis is waiting for the situation to settle itself before getting into it. This is frustrating Eric, who wants it at least addressed if not completed now. But Eric is driving his own value to the Canes down as his production declines. This is likely to create a bigger gap between what Francis would pay, and what Eric would take.

 

The playoffs are the problem. How does Francis go to Eric while we're still in it and ask to trade him? That's going to be a tough conversation. I guess he can tell him that he is on a mission to control costs, and he has a strict policy to never get nothing for his UFA's unless playoffs are secure. We are still building a team here. We're not really built to go deep. I can offer X, but if that doesn't work, why not let me trade you to a better team, and we can see if you want to come back?

 

Still seems like it would be a lot easier if the team would just drop a few points back.

 

To that end, we are giving back most of the games in hand, and have two games over the weekend. If we lose them both? Maybe it's time. But if we win them both? No man's land. Where we've been with Eric for about a year and a half.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You may be right.

 

But there are 21 other guys who might have something to say about it.  ;)

 

I believed at the time (and still do) that at least part of BP's calculation in getting Ryan over the summer was the possibility that Eric would be gone by the deadline, and BP's confidence that regardless what happens with E, the team would be well on its way to playing BP's way.

 

I think BP's comments about wanting to get Lindy back to center soon have to be tempered with his other comments, that Lindy was rushed up the depth chart. So while I don't disagree with your assessment that moving Rask or Jordan to 1C and making Lindy 3C is simply shuffling guys we already have, bringing Ryan up at 3C for the rest of the year would represent a real change. So too would be getting someone (versus a pick) back for Eric, which I think is a real possibility. Here's why.

 

Given his numbers and the picks we already have in hand, I think there a much greater opportunity now than there was even in October that Eric could be marketed as, and could bring back, a "needs-a-change-of-scenery" type player - especially if a Nash or Gerbs is included in the deal.

 

If that happens - say we get an underperforming top-nine wing for Eric and one of our other UFAs - the stretch drive could remain interesting. And if it doesn't happen, but we bring Ryan up as a 3C, the odds of it remaining interesting would be, IMO, as good they are with Eric on the roster.

 

Of course, we have four other UFA skaters (besides E, Gerbs and Nash) to deal with before the deadline, too. So I think discounting our stretch drive based solely on whether Eric stays or goes discounts what could come back if someone else is packaged with him.

 

Sure, the rest of the team could step it up even further, Ryan could surprise, or RF could make a trade that involves another "change of scenery" type player.  Like everyone else here, I'm just projecting what I see as the most likely outcome.

 

I shared that I think the team is already playing beyond it's raw talent level (again, big props to coach Peters!).  I also believe the concept of "giving 110%" is a myth.  It makes it sound like there's an extra 10% an athlete can tap into just by will alone. In reality 100% is the max. The "extra %" that the aphorism refers to is in reality whatever room there is between wherever a actually player is and their actual max effort. The problem is, unless an athlete is dogging it to start (Semin), there usually isn't that much room for improvement. And according to the Pareto Principle, the closer you get to 100% the greater effort it takes to see even small gains. So unless a lot of Canes are holding back right now I'm not optimistic on the rest of the team just "bumping things up". 

 

Ryan is a bit of a wild card to me.  On the one hand he leads the Chex in both goals and assists, his +- isn't terrible (-4), he does have years of experience, and presumably he's providing quite a bit of leadership to the young Chex.  On the other hand, his experience doesn't include any NHL time and he's a 5'-11", 170lbs center.   Even if he adds some scoring, I've got to wonder what kind of impact he'd have on our puck possession, something most of us think has contributed to our recent success this year.   I just wish we'd have had a chance to at least see him on the ice for the Canes a couple of times before now.  

 

I think the best chance of continuing a playoff push after dealing E would come from RF dealing him for another "change of scenery" type player.  But it seems like we'd need to get pretty lucky for that type of deal to come about. E is still a rental, so you'd need to have a playoff contending team looking to deal that type player. Other GMs are going to be just as aware of Es decrease in performance, and the issues that will likely be present in negotiating a new contract, as we are.

 

But it really doesn't come down to just E, does it?  Versteeg, Liles, and Ward are going to have value as well. Not as much, but seems like RF would adopt one strategy or the other. Either sign/ deal any UFA we can get a decent return for, or leave the team basically intact for a playoff push.

 

I hate to say it, but given how the schedule will balance out over the week, unless we beat the Pens on Fri I think the decision for RF becomes a whole lot clearer.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the record, I think the Canes as currently composed are a playoff-qualifying-caliber NHL team.   :applaud: Unfortunately, I don't think they're good enough to overcome that terrible Oct/ Nov start and actually reach the playoffs, even if RF leaves them intact. :( Becoming buyers is not an option. 

 

The next week or so will probably clarify the picture quite a bit.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But it really doesn't come down to just E, does it?  Versteeg, Liles, and Ward are going to have value as well. Not as much, but seems like RF would adopt one strategy or the other. Either sign/ deal any UFA we can get a decent return for, or leave the team basically intact for a playoff push.

 

I hate to say it, but given how the schedule will balance out over the week, unless we beat the Pens on Fri I think the decision for RF becomes a whole lot clearer.

I agree; Pitt is very likely the game that will tell the tale, re which strategy RF decides to take this year.

 

For the record, I think the Canes as currently composed are a playoff-qualifying-caliber NHL team.   :applaud: Unfortunately, I don't think they're good enough to overcome that terrible Oct/ Nov start and actually reach the playoffs, even if RF leaves them intact. :( Becoming buyers is not an option. 

 

The next week or so will probably clarify the picture quite a bit.

I agree that becoming buyers is not an option, but making sure that any active NHL players we might get back for our UFAs represent an improvement is still worthy goal. That might sound like semantics - you say "buyers," I say "improvement" - but what better laboratory than the pressure of a playoff race, even one where the odds are long, to test the mettle of anything we get back?

 

Keeping butts in the seats the rest of the way would set the table for off-season ticket sales, so I think that from both that standpoint and the fact that we lose a top-sixer, trying to get a current NHLer back (assuming Eric is not re-signed) doesn't necessarily constitute "buying" in terms of the current stretch drive. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree; Pitt is very likely the game that will tell the tale, re which strategy RF decides to take this year.

 

I agree that becoming buyers is not an option, but making sure that any active NHL players we might get back for our UFAs represent an improvement is still worthy goal. That might sound like semantics - you say "buyers," I say "improvement" - but what better laboratory than the pressure of a playoff race, even one where the odds are long, to test the mettle of anything we get back?

 

Keeping butts in the seats the rest of the way would set the table for off-season ticket sales, so I think that from both that standpoint and the fact that we lose a top-sixer, trying to get a current NHLer back (assuming Eric is not re-signed) doesn't necessarily constitute "buying" in terms of the current stretch drive. 

 

I think we're on the same page.  I should have said "we can't become renters".  You're right, of course RF can and should be a "buyer" if it helps the teams longer term prospects (as in chances, not yutes).  The question becomes, who is going to be selling the type of player that would help us with a continued playoff push this year as well as strengthen the team in the future?  Especially in exchange for one our (presumably) rental UFAs? 

 

I also appreciate what a playoff berth would do for the Canes from an organizational perspective going forward.  If the Canes were to beat the Pens and the Rags in our next 2 games (however unlikely that is) I think RFs job gets a lot more complicated.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its actually the Pens and Islanders. Both teams we could conceivably catch. An o-fer this weekend probably ends playoff hopes, but 2 wins ...

 

Thanks, fixed.  Yeah, 2 wins and I become a believer that the Canes could actually make the playoffs for the first time this season.  I've been in the "it's not unrealistic" camp up until now, but 2 wins moves me up.  Two losses probably ends it. So what does this team do? Probably goes 1-1. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, fixed.  Yeah, 2 wins and I become a believer that the Canes could actually make the playoffs for the first time this season.  I've been in the "it's not unrealistic" camp up until now, but 2 wins moves me up.  Two losses probably ends it. So what does this team do? Probably goes 1-1. :blink:

Or loses twice - in shootouts, of course  :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We needed to go 4 games over fake .500 to keep pace in February.

 

We have 13 games.  Our first 3 games, all against non playoff teams, we gained nothing.  So now we need to go 4 games over .500 over only 10 games.  7-3.  Or 6-2-2.

 

We will have to go 4 games over .500 in March too, with 15 games in 31 days, 10 on the road, so if anything, we need to bank a couple extra in February.

 

They are doing it to me again.  They sucked me in, I got excited, and then they went 1-1-1 against non-playoff teams, after a 6 day rest.  Move me back over to the non-believer category again.  Maybe that will help. 

 

Work the phones Ronnie, work the phones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are doing it to me again.  They sucked me in, I got excited, and then they went 1-1-1 against non-playoff teams, after a 6 day rest.  Move me back over to the non-believer category again.  Maybe that will help. 

 

Work the phones Ronnie, work the phones.

 

Me too.  This is maddening.

 

The other thing about the 1-1-1 on the trip was they got the OT loser point against a team they are fighting against, and hence gave up 2 pts to a team they needed to deny those points to.   So, it is worse than .500 so that's why they are now in a tight spot.

 

Last night's results were nearly a wash for the Canes, although MTL won and is now ahead of the Canes (thanks to the 2 pts the Canes gave them), yet the Canes now have a game in hand on them!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well at least we have a game in hand on montreal and Jersey. Pitts still has two on us and 3 points on us. I now realize the over whelming importance of Friday nights game. Might be the closest feel to a playoff game we've had in years. Man, a win would be...........awesome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...