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AWACSooner

The great E Staal Has Been Traded Thread

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If you think Eric will get less than $6M on the open market then you are just delusional. He will be one of the top UFAs come July 1st, if he isn't re-signed. He is still a very good capable 1-2C, you have to look at more than just stats. This shows (http://public.tableau.com/shared/85XRW8HDG?:display_count=yes&:showVizHome=no) that Eric is still a very good player, a player that teams need/want.

 

If Eric was going to get $6M or less on the open market, he'll just re-sign here for that much. He'll easily get $7.5-8.5M from a team. There are teams out there who need a 1-2C and will pay it. 

 

And yes, you can throw Stamkos,  if he makes it to July 1st, will be the #1 UFA, but he will also be looking for a contract in the $12M range. That will limit teams that can take that type of contract on. However, I doubt he gets to July 1st anyway. So that leaves Staal as the biggest UFA and teams will pay more than $6M.

Andrew Ladd is much more sought after than Staal right now. And no team that is in the playoff mix needs a 1C. If they did, they wouldn't be in the playoff mix.

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And no team that is in the playoff mix needs a 1C. If they did, they wouldn't be in the playoff mix.

No team would be trying to get EStaal to be a 1C. He'd be a 2C or 3C and an upgrade there for most playoff teams.

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No team would be trying to get EStaal to be a 1C. He'd be a 2C or 3C and an upgrade there for most playoff teams.

Ding! Thank you. 

 

As the TD approaches I expect we'll be seeing more and more E fans determined to ignore his game's decline, and that we are winning in spite of, not because of, his presence. He had great several chances to finish last night and missed every one of them, and has 2 points in his last 14 games, I believe.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Ding! Thank you. 

 

As the TD approaches I expect we'll be seeing more and more E fans determined to ignore his game's decline, and that we are winning in spite of, not because of, his presence. He had great several chances to finish last night and missed every one of them, and has 2 points in his last 14 games, I believe.

 

*This* is why I sort of question some of the advanced analytics that have come to the game - E. is the epitome of the "eye test". According to the analytics, Eric is playing well - his Corsi For is pretty high, which means the Hurricanes are retaining puck possession while he is on the ice.

 

On the other hand, he's scored two points in the last 14 games, so those possession stats aren't being turned into scoring stats for E. Just looked at line-combination scoring, too - Lindholm-E.-Versteeg is 28/62/90, Nordstrom-J.-Nestrasil is 28/45/73. Of course, those numbers are skewed 'cause J. Staal plays a lot on the power play unit, so some of those goals aren't with his 5v5 linemates....

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That is a good point JonKerfoot.

 

The game vs. Winnipeg I watched E a lot in the arena. He would get the puck. Carry the puck. Rag the puck a bit, Then turn the puck over.

 

I do think he can't buy a goal, and is a bit snakebitten, but that is the exact difference between the ppg Staal and the current version. That little bit extra is the difference between possessing the puck/creating low yield shots, and scoring.

 

This has been ongoing as a general decline over the past 3 seasons, but the past 13-15 games, it has dropped back even more, presumably as his psyche and confidence add into his declined game.

 

This is also a reason that a change of scenery could help Eric. If he refuses to waive and rides this season out scoring 2 points every 10 games or so? He may be very negatively surprised come UFA time. If he takes a scenery change, plays with some top wingers, and finds his game, maybe going deep in the playoffs? His UFA price goes way up.

Edited by remkin

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*This* is why I sort of question some of the advanced analytics that have come to the game - E. is the epitome of the "eye test". According to the analytics, Eric is playing well - his Corsi For is pretty high, which means the Hurricanes are retaining puck possession while he is on the ice.

 

On the other hand, he's scored two points in the last 14 games, so those possession stats aren't being turned into scoring stats for E. Just looked at line-combination scoring, too - Lindholm-E.-Versteeg is 28/62/90, Nordstrom-J.-Nestrasil is 28/45/73. Of course, those numbers are skewed 'cause J. Staal plays a lot on the power play unit, so some of those goals aren't with his 5v5 linemates....

 

Are you misinterpreting what CorsiFor measures?  I'm not sure, but I would offer -

 

CorsiFor measures even-strength shot attempts - on goal, missed, and blocked shots - when player x is on the ice vs the same for the other team.  Positive CorsiFor indicates better team possession while player x is on the ice.

 

Eric is doing what he does best, and always has, and that's cycle.  That's why his CorsFor is so high.  But, CorsiFor isn't an attempt to measure production.

 

Eric's decline started with the Edler hit, IMO, and he's lost a step.  He can't blow by defenses like he once could.  But he's still a very good possession player. 

 

Personally, I think your going to see a lot more Eric Staal situations as the league transitions to big, mobile defenseman who can skate...and fast.  Guys at Eric's age always slow down, and if a guy like him, who depended for years on his speed, can't make those same plays, their overall value to a team isn't going to be north of 8-9 million bucks.  But they have value.

 

I'd be surprised if he doesn't get something along the lines of the Kesler deal, around 7-7.5 mil, if he hits the open market.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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If you think Eric will get less than $6M on the open market then you are just delusional. He will be one of the top UFAs come July 1st, if he isn't re-signed. He is still a very good capable 1-2C, you have to look at more than just stats. This shows (http://public.tableau.com/shared/85XRW8HDG?:display_count=yes&:showVizHome=no) that Eric is still a very good player, a player that teams need/want.

 

If Eric was going to get $6M or less on the open market, he'll just re-sign here for that much. He'll easily get $7.5-8.5M from a team. There are teams out there who need a 1-2C and will pay it. 

 

And yes, you can throw Stamkos,  if he makes it to July 1st, will be the #1 UFA, but he will also be looking for a contract in the $12M range. That will limit teams that can take that type of contract on. However, I doubt he gets to July 1st anyway. So that leaves Staal as the biggest UFA and teams will pay more than $6M.

7.5-8mil for a player that's going to finish with 12goals? I can't see that happening. Only way he gets paid like that is if he finishes extremely strong. Like 15 goals in last 20 games strong. He is worth about 3mil right now. Because of his name/history/and corsi stats he will probably get 6mil tops from somebody. He is the riskiest FA out there. up until 3yrs ago a guaranteed 70point player. Now a player that seems like will have trouble ever breaking 10 goals again. What a gamble, pay a guy 70point money in hopes the "change of scenery" brings his game back after 3 declining years. If I had to bet, I'd say he still has a couple big years left in him, Its just not happening here this year.

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Question:  Is it Eric's fault that he was offered a contract way over what he was actually worth and accepted it?

 

I'd say it's not even relevant at this point. RF needs to do what's best for the Canes going forward. Period.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Question:  Is it Eric's fault that he was offered a contract way over what he was actually worth and accepted it?

 

No, but it would be Francis' fault if he's offered it again.

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Question:  Is it Eric's fault that he was offered a contract way over what he was actually worth and accepted it?

 

Question: What does "fault" have to do with it?

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Are you misinterpreting what CorsiFor measures?  I'm not sure, but I would offer -

 

CorsiFor measures even-strength shot attempts - on goal, missed, and blocked shots - when player x is on the ice vs the same for the other team.  Positive CorsiFor indicates better team possession while player x is on the ice.

 

Eric is doing what he does best, and always has, and that's cycle.  That's why his CorsFor is so high.  But, CorsiFor isn't an attempt to measure production.

 

Okay, you're right, I misinterpreted what CorsiFor (or however it is named/spelled/whatever) is. Actually, that just makes my point even more clearly - for all E.'s ability to possess the puck and cycle, it isn't showing up as more goals for him or his linemates.

 

The reason I pointed this out is that there are those who are saying "you have to look beyond the stats" as a reason to advocate for E. being a part of the Hurricanes going forward. I am saying that goals and assists are where, pardon the pun, the rubber hits the road, Corsi be damned....

 

Isn't outscoring the opponent the point of the game?

Edited by JonKerfoot

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Okay, you're right, I misinterpreted what CorsiFor (or however it is named/spelled/whatever). Actually, that just makes my point even more clearly - for all E.'s ability to possess the puck and cycle, it isn't showing up as more goals for him or his linemates.

The reason I pointed this out is that there are those who are saying "you have to look beyond the stats" as a reason to advocate for E. being a part of the Hurricanes going forward. I am saying that goals and assists are where, pardon the pun, the rubber hits the road, Corsi be damned....

Isn't outscoring the opponent the point of the game?

Your welcome - helping you make you point that is.

I saw where you were going.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Question: What does "fault" have to do with it?

 

 

This.  The 'don't blame Eric/Cam/whoever - JR offered it to him' argument has come up 3-4 times in the short time i've been posting in this forum, and it's a silly, irrelevant argument.  It doesn't make a .... who threw the number on the table - all that matters is that he's making a huge amount of money and has rarely produced to that level, and RF has to spend his money wisely to turn this team into a contender.  Any speculation i've seen on this board has been about just that - not pointing fingers about who threw the number on the table to start with.

Edited by remkin
by pass of profanity filter

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This.  The 'don't blame Eric/Cam/whoever - JR offered it to him' argument has come up 3-4 times in the short time i've been posting in this forum, and it's a silly, irrelevant argument.  It doesn't make a ... who threw the number on the table - all that matters is that he's making a huge amount of money and has rarely produced to that level, and RF has to spend his money wisely to turn this team into a contender.  Any speculation i've seen on this board has been about just that - not pointing fingers about who threw the number on the table to start with.

 

You're absolutely right in your conclusion imo.  But it seems to me like you missed part of the genesis of that irrelevant line of discussion.

 

When opining what to do with E going forward, it's often brought up that he's under performing his big contract now and in the past.  Seems like that's when the "don't blame the player" line gets trotted out.

Edited by remkin

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This.  The 'don't blame Eric/Cam/whoever - JR offered it to him' argument has come up 3-4 times in the short time i've been posting in this forum, and it's a silly, irrelevant argument.  It doesn't make a ...who threw the number on the table - all that matters is that he's making a huge amount of money and has rarely produced to that level, and RF has to spend his money wisely to turn this team into a contender.  Any speculation i've seen on this board has been about just that - not pointing fingers about who threw the number on the table to start with.

I think the point is made to just try to separate the "Staal isn't earning his check" issue from the "what is Staal worth going forward" issue. A lot of people get all wound up on the idea that Staal isn't earning his check. That simply isn't Francis' concern right now. Putting a dollar value on him going forward is, if he is considering trying to sign him again.

Edited by remkin

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I'd say it's not even relevant at this point. RF needs to do what's best for the Canes going forward. Period.

Exactly.

 

Blue, nobody's "blaming" Eric for anything. But if we double down by signing him to another contract that overstates his value? Shame on us.

 

(Sorry, replied before seeing all the others in the similar vein. Not trying to pile on.)

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Your welcome - helping you make you point that is.

I saw where you were going.

 

Thanks, I appreciate that, and I apologize for being defensive in my response.  :)

 

Edit: I've been online too much today. Think I'll drive downtown and go see a Tulsa Oilers ECHL game....

Edited by JonKerfoot

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I think the point is made to just try to separate the "Staal isn't earning his check" issue from the "what is Staal worth going forward" issue. A lot of people get all wound up on the idea that Staal isn't earning his check. That simply isn't Francis' concern right now. Putting a dollar value on him going forward is, if he is considering trying to sign him again.

 

s_d, thanks for explaining that. You're correct, what E. is receiving now isn't the issue. The issue at hand is "what will the Hurricanes value Eric's future at, and will he accept that or test the UFA waters?"

 

Of course, it wouldn't be human not to speculate or to say "what would I do if I were in his place?"

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Exactly.

 

Blue, nobody's "blaming" Eric for anything. But if we double down by signing him to another contract that overstates his value? Shame on us.

 

(Sorry, replied before seeing all the others in the similar vein. Not trying to pile on.)

 

So now all of you are saving face?  I have consistently read:  "A 9 m/year player has only put up or is on pace for 14 goals.  This is unacceptable, the guy has got to go."  I have heard this over and over in the arguments.  Now because I just countered that argument what he makes is irrelevant?  Ok, sounds legit.  I am neutral on whether he should stay or go.  But good luck finding a puck possession forward like him via free agency.

 

Better yet, let's all toast to over spending and offering 6m for a 40-45 point forward this off season via UFA as his replacement.  We all know that teams don't overpay via free agency!  It can only go up from here fellas!

Edited by bluedevil58

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So now all of you are saving face? 

Whatever, Blue. Whatever comes into your head, apparently.

 

I've been very consistent for more than three years that, IMO, Eric has not given us a return matching our investment, and that whether he is should be the only yardstick by which he (or for that matter any player) is judged.

 

Puck possession that results in turnovers rather than goals is kinda like empty-net goals, or 70-point seasons when your team doesn't make the dance: Meaningless. 

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Whatever, Blue. Whatever comes into your head, apparently.

 

I've been very consistent for more than three years that, IMO, Eric has not given us a return matching our investment, and that whether he is should be the only yardstick by which he (or for that matter any player) is judged.

 

Puck possession that results in turnovers rather than goals is kinda like empty-net goals, or 70-point seasons when your team doesn't make the dance: Meaningless. 

 

But was that investment his fault?  You literally just proved my point.

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No the investment is not his fault. His fault is the lack of investment this teams success. Doing just enough to keep the casual fan involved , but not taking the next step to pushing himself and others toward consistent playoff appearances. I just don't see the desire to push harder. There seems to be a lack of passion. This contract is done. Move on. Find someone who wants to play and play here. The future certainly looks brighter with the youth movement we are seeing. We do not need to go after the so called top UFA's. I think we can find a player who fills in with our guys who won't break the bank. We have certainly traded away quite a few of those in the last 10 years.

Edited by winger52

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Recently someone said: "Something is wrong with Eric."

 

Last night, I focused on him and was amazed.  Not only was he slow, there also seems to be something wrong with his hands and shot.  He is totally in a "shoot second, pass first" mentality.  The power play goal was a good example: I really think the Eric of old would have gotten that puck in with a little more heft.

 

There seems to be no power, no heft, no snap.

 

The combination of both makes him look disinterested, and perhaps maybe that's what it is.  But I also can't help but feel he is injured or permanently physically degraded.  

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