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The great E Staal Has Been Traded Thread

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And if Eric can get 8.5 on UFA and we think he's worth 6 just think of all the other UFA's we think we can easily sign with the freed up 9 mil that won't go nearly as far as some posters alleged it will.

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Remkin -

 

While the article points out what I've said for years regarding Erics plus/minus its even more striking given his size/reach and the fact hes in the middle of the ice at center usually. Again its been said, cant disagree.

 

But regarding the article that says hes probably overpaid at 8.5 mill its seems a bit contradictory to say he may garner 8 mill on the open market.  Just saying and its my 2-cents.  Maybe someone will pay that but he is not worth that to us. 

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Good points One Timer, the guy writing that article is also commenting on 9 other forwards and may not have that $8.5 million right. That said though, one thing that could close the contradiction of him being overpaid at $8.5 million, but possibly getting it on the open market is that it isn't really an open market.

 

The desired UFA has an optimal seller's market for their skills, and tends to get overpaid by the contrived market.  A true open market would be every player on one year contracts that expire every year, and a massive free for all to make an entirely new team for all 30 teams every year. Obviously this doesn't happen. The vast majority of players are signed and not on the market. Even the large majority of prime players with expiring contracts get re-signed by their team before going UFA.

 

For instance, the author lists Kopitar and Stamkos amoung others for UFA. They may both be signed and come off the market. Of the 10 best UFA forwards for instance, the author comes to about a combined 50% of them getting re-signed. That would leave only 5 available, maybe less. If you need a top center and guys like Kopitar, Stamkos, Backes, even Johansen come off the market....Staal is going to start looking really tasty. A couple teams get bidding and you have overpayment.

 

There are boarderline talent UFA's that get hosed, but the guys who clearly still have game (even if it's not clearly elite), tend to get overpaid since there ain't many of them and teams have holes to fill.

 

Whatever we do, we better not overpay Eric, at least not by much.

Edited by remkin

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I'm thinking more and more that Francis is less and less likely to sign Eric and less and less wants to and less and less should.

 

Eric Staal is on a 12 goal pace, and that assumes he plays every game. Jordan has two more goals than Eric, and Jordan had a huge offensive drought. Eric Staal is on about a 45 point pace. This would mark the second season in a row, so this is not just one off, at around 50 points, and he put up 61 the year before that. This would be 3 consecutive years with average points of 53. But it's worse than that because it's actually declining: 61, 54, 45.

 

That is 3 years of Eric being at best a 50 point guy. He is also -13, -13, and +1 for a net -25 over those seasons. He is notably improved this year, but the other two was bottom third and bottom quarter of the team.

 

Historically, Eric has a noted weakness of being involved with personal, and with linemates badness in allowing goals against while he's on the ice. This is a bad by itself, but worse in combination with declining production.

 

On a team that needs finish, and already has a Staal that is better than Eric at defense and possession without much finish, it just makes less and less sense to even have Eric regardless of price.

 

But it is very very hard if not impossible to imagine that Eric and his agent are valuing him this way. Eric is really about a $4.5 million/year player at this point in his career, based soley on his numbers of the past 3 years, but with his history and pending an open market bid, there is no way he takes that.

 

IF Eric is in a position as many writers have speculated that he would not take less than baby bro, then he must be moved, even let go. Eric Staal is not worth $6.anything million/year. 

 

When you factor in all the losing with him as the face, and the general sense that maybe it's time to try a differnt Captain, it is very hard to see how this works.

 

This was to be the final evaluation year of the E. Staal reign. Despite knowing this, his production has actually dropped.

 

I am thinking that at some level Francis is putting off the discussion because he thinks Eric will be more receptive to a trade when it is clear that this team is again out of contention. It is more and more likely that will be evident after New Year. That's when he can pitch Eric that change is best for both parties.

Edited by remkin

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E Staal, at the 50 point level (avg) he has been putting up recently, is worth about $4 mil/yr. to a team if it were to be decided by an arbitrator using production numbers vs salary against players league wide. If he signs for that here, I'm actually okay with it. Any more and I have to say we overpaid. We'll see what happens based on the "other factors" (longevity, his brother, etc). It'll be interesting for sure. One thing I'm convinced of though with new management is they are way less likely to overspend than the JR regime. They've seen what it causes... 

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Eric has to go.  We need a fresh start.  Its not about him its about the team.  Somehow with the $70 million or so he has been paid I bet he can find a great therapist to help him get past being left out of our future.  I know thats a stark statement but think about it a minute.

 

How many posts do you read about whats best for Eric and the Team?  We've spent several years doing whats best for Eric - and that's not all his fault I might add.  Still we are where we are.  We need a fresh look and I don't get the logic of paying a declining player what he is worth now (if its 4.5) and in future years when declining production is expected when he doesn't bring COMPETE every night as it is.  Give me a new player that under hustles, shows little fire and finishes "+" less than 30% of the time, typically loses FO's and I am ok with it.  To me that's still a net gain because we need a new face.  When do we start to say "We've got to get someone else to play on Elias Lindholms line to make him really shine?"  We beat that dead horse regarding Eric for the last 7 years. 

 

Regardless of how fine a young man he seems, its time for this franchise to cut bait, wish him well, and move on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E Staal, at the 50 point level (avg) he has been putting up recently, is worth about $4 mil/yr. to a team if it were to be decided by an arbitrator using production numbers vs salary against players league wide. If he signs for that here, I'm actually okay with it. Any more and I have to say we overpaid. We'll see what happens based on the "other factors" (longevity, his brother, etc). It'll be interesting for sure. One thing I'm convinced of though with new management is they are way less likely to overspend than the JR regime. They've seen what it causes... 

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It's time to simplify. After last night watching Eric I was reminded of "Go with your gut" The last year of Chad LaRose my gut told me I can't take this guy anymore and just the sight of him coming over the boards made me sick. I got the same feeling last night as Eric came over the boards in the last two mins with a 6 on 4 advantage. Shots 6 feet wide and 6 feet high and also our Captain? RF please make him a 3.75 mil offer now for 2 years,no NTC and no letter on his Jersey and get the ball rolling.

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I cannot see paying E. Staal more than $6 million and that is top of the mark. If he is really worth $8.5 million on the open market? Be my guest. I really can't believe it though.

 

 

 

BTW that same site has at least 4 in the know types saying that Columbus really wants to trade Johansen. Maybe it takes less than I thought to get him.

Surprise Surprise, but yes there are teams that would be willing to pay EStaal $8M. Let's do a little comparison. Anze Kopitar, rumoured that he is close to resigning in LA for 8 years, $9.75M per year. Now ask yourself, is Kopitar worth $9.75M per year? Would you pay Kopitar that?

 

You now ask if Staal is worth $8M to a team, well let's do a compare:

Player A

2009-10 - 70 points

2010-11 - 76 points

2011-12 - 70 points

2012-13 - 53 points (lock-out year)

2013-14 - 61 points

2014-15 - 54 points

2015-16 - 19 points (currently)

 

Player B

2009-10 - 80 points

2010-11 - 73 points

2011-12 - 76 points

2012-13 - 42 points (lock-out year)

2013-14 - 70 points

2014-15 - 64 points

2015-16 - 20 points (currently)

 

Whose Who?

Player A = Eric Staal

Player B = Anze Kopitar

 

Not a whole lot of difference eh? And this with Kopitar playing on a better team with better linemates.

 

Look, I get people are just over Eric, but he is not the problem with this team. Eric was never going to be an 80-90 point player. He was projected to be a 65-75 point player and he has been that since he came into the league. I'm not sure what else people are expecting him to do. He can't carry this team to the playoffs all on his own.

 

Want to blame someone for this team missing the playoffs in 6 now going on 7 years, well look no further than Jim Rutherford. He wasted the prime years of Staal by not bringing in another top talent. Look at teams who are make the playoffs: Chicago (Towes/Kane), Pittsburgh (Crosby/Malkin), Caps (Ovie/Backstrom), Tampa (Stamkos/St Louis(when he was there); etc. Who'd we have Staal/LaRose?

 

My point being is that I get people are tired of Eric and tired of losing. But he isn't the problem. And he isn't awful as most like to think. Yes, he's had down years so far this year and last, but again, so did the whole team. Again, look to JR. How many other teams do you know of, that don't resign a player and that player can't find another job in the NHL. Shoot, I've lost count at how many players left this team and couldn't find another job and either retired or went overseas to play. That to me screams that we iced an awful team. If the guys we iced, couldn't even find another NHL team to take them, do we think we actually had a good enough team to compete for the playoffs. Heck No we didn't and well we didn't.

 

I mean just look what JR is doing to the Pittsburgh Penguins now. Although, that's quite funny to me. And even texted my brother the day they announced it that "good, he can go ruin that franchise like he ruined ours", and that he is doing.

 

When it comes to Eric, I don't have my hate glasses on for the guy. I'm neutral. If Francis and Peters think that he can help this team moving forward (which I think Francis has them going in the right direction), then I won't question if they resign him. And if he decides the team needs to move on from Eric, then I won't question it either.

 

But to loop back to the beginning, where ever Eric goes, don't be shocked if he signs for $8M per, teams do still value that type of player.

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My point being is that I get people are tired of Eric and tired of losing. But he isn't the problem. And he isn't awful as most like to think.

 

 

Most like to think he's awful?

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Surprise Surprise, but yes there are teams that would be willing to pay EStaal $8M. Let's do a little comparison. Anze Kopitar, rumoured that he is close to resigning in LA for 8 years, $9.75M per year. Now ask yourself, is Kopitar worth $9.75M per year? Would you pay Kopitar that?

 

You now ask if Staal is worth $8M to a team, well let's do a compare:

Player A

2009-10 - 70 points

2010-11 - 76 points

2011-12 - 70 points

2012-13 - 53 points (lock-out year)

2013-14 - 61 points

2014-15 - 54 points

2015-16 - 19 points (currently)

 

Player B

2009-10 - 80 points

2010-11 - 73 points

2011-12 - 76 points

2012-13 - 42 points (lock-out year)

2013-14 - 70 points

2014-15 - 64 points

2015-16 - 20 points (currently)

 

Whose Who?

Player A = Eric Staal

Player B = Anze Kopitar

 

Not a whole lot of difference eh? And this with Kopitar playing on a better team with better linemates.

 

 

Just left out one other set of numbers in that comparison:

 

Player A: -47

Player B: +103

 

over the past 6 years.

 

I don't know if Kopitar is worth the money, but he is a seriously better player than E. He plays both ways.

 

I know that Kopitar plays on a plus team, but he is always right at the top of the team list every year.Two years ago the guy was +34. The next best guy on the team was a full 13 points lower at plus 21. The next best guy (#2 on the team).

 

He did put up about 10 more points than E, but that aside, E gave back a net 47 GOALS, not points to Kopitar that year.

 

 

 

Look, I agree Eric has rarely had first line wingers. I've posted that before too. It's not hate, I just don't think we should value him anywhere near where the free market might. And if he's really that highly thought of, he should bring a nice return.

Edited by remkin

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Look, I get people are just over Eric, but he is not the problem with this team. Eric was never going to be an 80-90 point player. He was projected to be a 65-75 point player and he has been that since he came into the league. I'm not sure what else people are expecting him to do. He can't carry this team to the playoffs all on his own.

 

I'd argue the trends in his stats, particularly over the last 3 years, indicates he's a player in decline.

61 pts, 54 pts and this year he's on pace for ~ 40 points.  He played most of the games in those seasons.

 

What I expect GMRF to do is either align his production and value with his compensation or move him.

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Just to reply::

...he was projected to be a 65-75 point player...

 

Wrong - he was paid to be a 100pt player which is why he was paid top 4 in the league.  Its part of why he was the cover of the NHL Hockey video game etc...  I am not saying that was fair nor unfair.  Its just the facts and they don't align with your comment about 65-75 pts.  You don't give a forward top 5 pay for that kind of points.

 

 

...I don't have my hate glasses on...

 

Its not hate.  Its acknowledgement he has not lived up to his pay OFTEN and more years than not on his contract.  Again that may be JR's fault for offering it if so that's debatable.  The fact he has been way overpaid many many years is obvious.  People stating that aren't being hateful just retrospective about the facts.  I wish the guy well.  If he is paid 8-8.5mill by another team than good for him and good for them, its less money they will have to be competitive VS us.

 

 

 

 

Look, I get people are just over Eric, but he is not the problem with this team. Eric was never going to be an 80-90 point player. He was projected to be a 65-75 point player and he has been that since he came into the league. I'm not sure what else people are expecting him to do. He can't carry this team to the playoffs all on his own.

 

 

When it comes to Eric, I don't have my hate glasses on for the guy. I'm neutral.

But to loop back to the beginning, where ever Eric goes, don't be shocked if he signs for $8M per, teams do still value that type of player.

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Just left out one other set of numbers in that comparison:

 

Player A: -47

Player B: +103

 

over the past 6 years.

 

I don't know if Kopitar is worth the money, but he is a seriously better player than E. He plays both ways.

 

I know that Kopitar plays on a plus team, but he is always right at the top of the team list every year.Two years ago the guy was +34. The next best guy on the team was a full 13 points lower at plus 21. The next best guy (#2 on the team).

 

He did put up about 10 more points than E, but that aside, E gave back a net 47 GOALS, not points to Kopitar that year.

 

 

 

Look, I agree Eric has rarely had first line wingers. I've posted that before too. It's not hate, I just don't think we should value him anywhere near where the free market might. And if he's really that highly thought of, he should bring a nice return.

My point was that Staal could get $8M on the open market. People don't want to believe it or say they wouldn't pay him that. That's fine, I frankly wouldn't pay him $8M either, but the main point is that he could very well get $8M. If Kopitar can bring in $9.75M it is not a stretch by any means or would it be a shock if a team offers him $8M. Like I said, there are teams that still value this type of player. 

 

As far as plus/minus go. I don't know but i'd say Quick is >>>>>>>>>>>> any goalie this team has ever put out there. How many softies a night does Quick give up? I don't ever put much stock in +/- as there are 5 other guys out there they need to keep the puck out of the net. It's a worthless stat, IMO. If a guy just jumps over the boards and team is scored on, guess what, that guy gets a -, but he wasn't the fault of that goal. 

 

Like I said, I don't frankly care either way, but you better make sure you are able to fill that position via trade (which you better be prepared to give someone very good up) or in free agency (which I don't see happening) personally. The point is that no one currently on the team is ready to take it. IMHO. Rask is probably about 2 years away where he can really handle #1 center duties for a full season.

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Just to reply::

...he was projected to be a 65-75 point player...

 

Wrong - he was paid to be a 100pt player which is why he was paid top 4 in the league.  Its part of why he was the cover of the NHL Hockey video game etc...  I am not saying that was fair nor unfair.  Its just the facts and they don't align with your comment about 65-75 pts.  You don't give a forward top 5 pay for that kind of points.

 

 

...I don't have my hate glasses on...

 

Its not hate.  Its acknowledgement he has not lived up to his pay OFTEN and more years than not on his contract.  Again that may be JR's fault for offering it if so that's debatable.  The fact he has been way overpaid many many years is obvious.  People stating that aren't being hateful just retrospective about the facts.  I wish the guy well.  If he is paid 8-8.5mill by another team than good for him and good for them, its less money they will have to be competitive VS us.

He was never projected to be a 100 point player. You can't say he was projected to be a 90-100 point player because of 1 season just after the lock out he put up 100 points. EVERY player that year put up higher numbers that season. If you even saw the profile of him in the draft, he was projected to be a great 2-way center, playmaker, that would need to work on his offense. 

 

And he can't help that Rutherford paid him to be a 100 point player. If your boss came to you and said i'm going to pay you my salary, are you going to say no i'm not worth that? No your not. 

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Staal may very well get $8M on the open market, and he may be worth that to another team. I don't think he is worth that to the Canes going forward. Yes, it will leave a big hole to fill if you pencil him at his previous production level. If you pencil him in at his current level...well, I'm not so sure.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I think Staal might have been able to get 8million this past summer. Now, his value has got to be way down. 5g in 30something games is bad, I mean that's not even great for a 4th line center. what a gamble it would be for a team to pay him more than 5mil right now.

My view of Eric has changed a lot from October til now. He is showing that he is not in a slump or slow start but that he has lost the ability to finish for now. His skating is still strong, his puck possession is very strong, but his shot is not.

I mean, I'm not even sure if anyone would want to touch him this year. You have no idea if your getting a 40point guy,50point guy,60point guy or potentially a guy who is gonna flourish back to his old form with a change of scenery and be a 70point guy. So how do you decide what he's worth? If you pay him by this years production than he's worth no more than 3.5mil. I think everyones gonna be scratching their head and scared to pull the trigger on anything more 4-5mil at this point. Unless he has a January hot streak and scores 10 goals than his value might go up a little.

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I think Staal might have been able to get 8million this past summer. Now, his value has got to be way down. 5g in 30something games is bad, I mean that's not even great for a 4th line center. what a gamble it would be for a team to pay him more than 5mil right now.

My view of Eric has changed a lot from October til now. He is showing that he is not in a slump or slow start but that he has lost the ability to finish for now. His skating is still strong, his puck possession is very strong, but his shot is not.

I mean, I'm not even sure if anyone would want to touch him this year. You have no idea if your getting a 40point guy,50point guy,60point guy or potentially a guy who is gonna flourish back to his old form with a change of scenery and be a 70point guy. So how do you decide what he's worth? If you pay him by this years production than he's worth no more than 3.5mil. I think everyones gonna be scratching their head and scared to pull the trigger on anything more 4-5mil at this point. Unless he has a January hot streak and scores 10 goals than his value might go up a little.

 

That's the micro view.  Looking at the big picture you've got a player that hasn't shown any indication of of returning to the form he had before his knee injury over 2 years ago.  Isn't that going to raise the concern of the injury being an inflection point in Es career?  Add in that he's 31yo (with the general consensus being that forward production generally starts to decline after the mid to late 20s) and aren't GMS going to worry that Es career stands as good a chance of following a Vincent Lecavalier-like trajectory from here on out as a Jaromir Jagr-like one? 

 

There will be GMs very interested in E, but I'm guessing that offers will likely be very short term and at a rate of at most $7.5m (and probably even less).  Of course it only takes one GM with faith that E will regain his form going forward, but I think the odds of a GM betting big money on that have gone down significantly.

Edited by LakeLivin

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My point was that Staal could get $8M on the open market. People don't want to believe it or say they wouldn't pay him that. That's fine, I frankly wouldn't pay him $8M either, but the main point is that he could very well get $8M. If Kopitar can bring in $9.75M it is not a stretch by any means or would it be a shock if a team offers him $8M. Like I said, there are teams that still value this type of player. 

 

As far as plus/minus go. I don't know but i'd say Quick is >>>>>>>>>>>> any goalie this team has ever put out there. How many softies a night does Quick give up? I don't ever put much stock in +/- as there are 5 other guys out there they need to keep the puck out of the net. It's a worthless stat, IMO. If a guy just jumps over the boards and team is scored on, guess what, that guy gets a -, but he wasn't the fault of that goal. 

 

Like I said, I don't frankly care either way, but you better make sure you are able to fill that position via trade (which you better be prepared to give someone very good up) or in free agency (which I don't see happening) personally. The point is that no one currently on the team is ready to take it. IMHO. Rask is probably about 2 years away where he can really handle #1 center duties for a full season.

 

If it comes to it, it will be interesting to see what the market bears for E. I'm thinking $8 million is high even for the UFA frenzy, but I could well be wrong. I definitely don't think we should pay even close to that.

 

Plus minus....to me it is a shadowy stat and very imprecise, but not meaningless. I think it is useful when viewed over long stretches with high N value, even multiple seasons, large differences between players, and players ranking within their team. ie: if Quick is such a big factor how does Kopitar put up a plus minus massively better than the entire rest of the team?

 

The gap between E and Kopitar is massive, persists over 6 seasons, and Kopitar is always at the top of his team, often #1 and E. is typically near the bottom.

Edited by remkin

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In these days of a market-driven culture, appearance is everything.   Too often he seems to take shifts off and does not leave everything on the ice.

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And he can't help that Rutherford paid him to be a 100 point player. If your boss came to you and said i'm going to pay you my salary, are you going to say no i'm not worth that? No your not. 

 

 

I enjoy the way people like to bring this up, as if the rest of us are accusing Eric of holding a gun to JR's head.  In any case, how does this change anything?  "Oh, it's OK, it's not Eric's fault JR made him that offer.  Francis should go ahead and give him an extension, then...".

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What JR did has nothing to do with what RF should be willing to offer. I don't hold it against ES that he makes a big paycheck. I will hold it against RF if he gives another big paycheck to ES.

People really need to take their favorite player, rose colored glasses off when they start looking forward at new contracts.

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