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AWACSooner

2015-2016 Regular Season Prediction Thread

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Let's go crazy.

 

I'll start...

 

No playoffs, 78 total points, 15th in the Conference.

Eric gets traded in early Feb to a west team in playoff contention for their first and a decent mid-level player who us fans won't end up caring about.

Cam gets benched in favor of Lack and gets traded to Pittsburgh for their first rounder in 2017 and a bag of pucks...cause JR is still that stupid.

 

Ok, so that's the negative one...here's my realistic one.

 

86 points, miss playoffs by about 10...Eric gets traded.  We can't find a taker for Cam and let him walk after the season.  BUT...I do think we get a decent big-name trade done before the deadline outside of Eric.

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i say we get 6-8 points more than NJ.  So 12-14th in the East, depending on injuries.  Cam will walk, and I only see E. back if he takes ,$7million and 3 years max.  And free tacos every time Lack gets a shutout.

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Well it's not like predicting better things for this team that the national media has gotten me in trouble in the past or anything :rolleyes: .

 

But it's just no fun going with the crowd, espeically if the crowd predicts bad things.

 

I laid out my thesis for why this could be the surpise year for the Canes here: http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23040-2015-training-camp-and-pre-season/page-16

 

But in brief: We were in or near top 10 in: PK, PP, Shots allowd and Shots taken. So how did we do so badly? Goals for and Goals against. My thesis is that Peter's system worked pretty well but the forwards didn't convert, and at points: October and March for Cam and all year for Khudobin, the goalie play was lax.

 

So why would this year be different? Hidden in Cam's averages was a very strong November - February:  that's 4 months. The two off months: October: now ancient history, and we all know that one, March: no Sekera, team long out of it. Hidden in our goalie stats is that we replaced .900 Kudobin with .921 Lack.

 

This would argue that we could potentially be in the league lead for goals allowed: if Cam and Lack play up to my thesis (see link above) we could have top 10 goaltending to go with our limited shots allowed.

 

This would mean that we just need a few more goals for. If you lead the league in goals allowed, you don't need to be a powerhouse offense, but you do need to not be #27 in goals for.

 

But with a full year of the system under their belts, and "the Russian Glider" off the team, (Versteeg >> Feckless Semin) there is systematic and attitudinal (the room) general reasons for optimism. Then there is the simple fact that the bar has never been lower. We have gone from my previous years" predictions based on "certain guys should do at least 80% of their best" to "certain guys really can't do much worse than last year".

 

Jordan Staal. 1. Can score more (see Pittsburgh). 2. Was completely off the ice half the year.

Eric Staal. Worst year last year. Healthy. Playing for contract.

J Skinner. Worst year last year.Healthy. Usually starts strong if not concussed.

E Lindholm. Third year this year. Normal progression, should add more, could be a lot more.

V Rask. Second NHL year. Should add more offense this year.

C. Versteeg: good for .5 ppg. (Semin put up .33 ppg last year).

 

Nestrasil and Terry both could add a few more points now with more NHL experience too.

 

We lose Sekera's points, but gain points from the Wiz.

 

So prediciting actual order of finishes is tough because the other teams play a role too. Technically one might try to predict the relative stregnth of every team in the conference and division. But that is a bit of a fool's errand really. Trying to make a bold prediction about one team is crazy enough. IMHO Philly, NJ, Toronto, and Buffalo are clearly worse. Tampa, Pittsburgh, NYI, and NYR are clearly better. After that, you never know.

 

So the prediction: we surpise a lot of people. We are in the playoff race to the end.

 

I just cannot predict what will happen w/ Staal or Ward's contracts because I don't know what they'll settle for and I know Francis will not wildly overpay them.

Edited by remkin

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I like your way of thinking Rem. I truly believe if the Staals, Skinner, put up average career numbers and we get a little extra help from Lindholm, Versteeg, Rask, than things will be much different than last year. We just didn't score all year. can't win on 1-2 goals per night. So I'm gonna predict that everyones gonna have above average offensive year and we are in the playoff picture. Defense and goal tending seems much improved so I'm really not worried about that going backwards. E. puts up 75points, Skinner puts up 65, lindholm 55, Jordan 50.. Goal tending and improved defense holds steady like last year and we are winning more games 3-2 this year rather than losing 2-1. A man can dream, but seriously its all possible, those numbers are whats expected of those players and their paychecks so why not.

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Victor Rask will come into his own as either a first or second-line center, scoring 25 goals and at least 40 assists.

 

Elias Lindholm will score 30 goals.

 

Eric Staal will score 30 goals and have 35 assists.

 

Jeff Skinner will score 40 goals.

 

The Carolina Hurricanes will make the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Penguins will not, and all will be right with the world. (Except for that whole Middle East thing.)

 

The Canes will go out in the third round. Cam will be having so much fun winning again, hanging with Lack and knowing he can rest or even split the workload that he will re-sign for $4 million a year, for three years, no NTC, setting up a smooth transition across that period with Lack adding about 10 games per season, and us getting two great goalies for the price of one. Though I'd prefer he would not, I think Eric will reject 6.5 million for four years and no NTC, and finish his career in Toronto.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Well it's not like predicting better things for this team that the national media has gotten me in trouble in the past or anything :rolleyes: .

 

But it's just no fun going with the crowd, espeically if the crowd predicts bad things.

 

I laid out my thesis for why this could be the surpise year for the Canes here: http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23040-2015-training-camp-and-pre-season/page-16

 

But in brief: We were in or near top 10 in: PK, PP, Shots allowd and Shots taken. So how did we do so badly? Goals for and Goals against. My thesis is that Peter's system worked pretty well but the forwards didn't convert, and at points: October and March for Cam and all year for Khudobin, the goalie play was lax.

 

So why would this year be different? Hidden in Cam's averages was a very strong November - February:  that's 4 months. The two off months: October: now ancient history, and we all know that one, March: no Sekera, team long out of it. Hidden in our goalie stats is that we replaced .900 Kudobin with .921 Lack.

 

This would argue that we could potentially be in the league lead for goals allowed: if Cam and Lack play up to my thesis (see link above) we could have top 10 goaltending to go with our limited shots allowed.

 

This would mean that we just need a few more goals for. If you lead the league in goals allowed, you don't need to be a powerhouse offense, but you do need to not be #27 in goals for.

 

But with a full year of the system under their belts, and "the Russian Glider" off the team, (Versteeg >> Feckless Semin) there is systematic and attitudinal (the room) general reasons for optimism. Then there is the simple fact that the bar has never been lower. We have gone from my previous years" predictions based on "certain guys should do at least 80% of their best" to "certain guys really can't do much worse than last year".

 

Jordan Staal. 1. Can score more (see Pittsburgh). 2. Was completely off the ice half the year.

Eric Staal. Worst year last year. Healthy. Playing for contract.

J Skinner. Worst year last year.Healthy. Usually starts strong if not concussed.

E Lindholm. Third year this year. Normal progression, should add more, could be a lot more.

V Rask. Second NHL year. Should add more offense this year.

C. Versteeg: good for .5 ppg. (Semin put up .33 ppg last year).

 

Nestrasil and Terry both could add a few more points now with more NHL experience too.

 

We lose Sekera's points, but gain points from the Wiz.

 

So prediciting actual order of finishes is tough because the other teams play a role too. Technically one might try to predict the relative stregnth of every team in the conference and division. But that is a bit of a fool's errand really. Trying to make a bold prediction about one team is crazy enough. IMHO Philly, NJ, Toronto, and Buffalo are clearly worse. Tampa, Pittsburgh, NYI, and NYR are clearly better. After that, you never know.

 

So the prediction: we surpise a lot of people. We are in the playoff race to the end.

 

I just cannot predict what will happen w/ Staal or Ward's contracts because I don't know what they'll settle for and I know Francis will not wildly overpay them.

Dude - THAT? Is "in brief"??

 

That seals it. On behalf of all on this board, you rule the Land of the Long Post:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I think we'll do better than the pundits are predicting but I'm not comfortable guessing how much.  I think we'll be competitive in most games, I just don't know how many will tilt our way. Definitely more than last year. . .

 

Organizational systems and culture: positive changes are settling in.

 

Roster: Lack, Wiz, Versteeg, -Semin, another year's experience for the yutes  > Kudo, Sekera, Tlusty, Semin, aging effect on the veterans.

 

Some predictions for a few individuals:

  • Lindholm shows continued solid improvement.
  • Nestrasil as well, but not quite as much. 
  • Skinner has big bounce back year as the principle of Regression Towards the Mean takes hold.
  • Gerbe sees a bounce in offensive production.
  • Rask disappoints slightly. This is as much a reflection of people's high expectations as poor play by Rask (i.e., he doesn't show anywhere near as big a jump this year as he had last year).
  • Liles: wins the Canes MVIM (Most Valuable Invisible Man) award.  He's a solid contributor on the defensive end and is another stabilizing influence for the yutes (along with Wiz and Hainsey), but gets almost no recognition for it.
  • Ward - Lack end up as one of the top goalie tandems in the league next year.
  • Wiz loses us at least one game by taking an ill timed penalty.

 

As always, just one man's opinion.  :D

Edited by LakeLivin

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Dude - THAT? Is "in brief"??

 

That seals it. On behalf of all on this board, you rule the Land of the Long Post:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:

 

You got me. I really did plan on making in brief but it got away from me. The goalie argument is brief....er than my original post. But yes, I do tend to hang some long posts. I'm working on it in rehab, but clearly have a ways to go.

 

I wouldn't sell yourself short though (see what I did there?) you are right there with me!

Edited by remkin

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Warning: short read.  :hide:

 

The optimist in me says we are a bubble playoff team.

 

The realist in me says we won't have the type of luck with injuries as last year, but offensively we aren't deep or skilled enough to get in.

 

Miss, but in the hunt. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I think we will be substantially improved, but it is hard to see us leapfrogging the entire Eastern Conference except Buffalo to get to 8th place. I'd be happy to see the team stay within hailing distance ofa playoff spot past the end of October (okay, how about until the end of March). Any thing more is gravy.

I take Eric at his word that he wants to stay here, and believe he and RF have agreed to evaluate fair price after seeing how the first half of the season goes. I think signing Lack so quickly may speak volumesabout RF's intentions regarding Cam. Then again, if RF sees them as comparable goalies, no way do I think Cam would have taken a 2 year extension at AAV of $2.75. Maybe he will by the trade deadline though.

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Here's my prediction:

Canes make the playoffs as the #6 seed and make it to the ECF! (Unfortunately, we lose to the Rangers in 6 games)

Eric gets traded to Edmonton bolster our playoff run.

Cam re-signs for 2 years at $7mil ($4mil for 1st year; $3mil for 2nd)

Lindholm and Jordan lead the team in points; Skinner and Rask in goals.

Edited by hopper915

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My bold predictions:

 

Steve Smith will repeat the unbelievable job he did last year with systems defense.  He has more to work with this year.

 

The Canes will continue to be a top team in possession time.  That's Bill Peters right there.

 

The Canes GF/GA ratio will wobble more towards the positive.  I thought that gauge was stuck...tap tap

 

Winning % when leading after two periods will improve.  Very important.

 

The Canes will be better at 3 on 3 than in shootouts.  There are points to be had here.

 

Goaltending will be solid

 

Tacos will become popular at tailgates.

 

The Staal and Ward situations will be in the past at some point this season.

 

That's a start.

 

Go Canes!

Edited by coastal_caniac

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We will start out slow and play 500 by mid year.  We will be in the sweep stakes for a top 5 pick and then go on a winning streak and land the 10-13th overall pick.  No playoffs for us this year.

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rocky-iii-33.png

 

Seriously, though, I think this year is not great. While I can see bounce back years for Eric, Jordan and Skins, as well as better overall goal tending, I think Rask and Faulk probably regress in scoring. Also, I think our penalty kill is more average this year and the power play is no better as well. Couple all of that with a better Metropolitan division, and I think we finish bottom five in the league again this year. However, I don't think we pick in the bottom five...ping pong balls.

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Seriously, though, I think this year is not great. While I can see bounce back years for Eric, Jordan and Skins, as well as better overall goal tending, I think Rask and Faulk probably regress in scoring. Also, I think our penalty kill is more average this year and the power play is no better as well. Couple all of that with a better Metropolitan division, and I think we finish bottom five in the league again this year. However, I don't think we pick in the bottom five...ping pong balls.

 

I hate to say it, but if forced to pick an over/ under on Faulk's scoring this year compared to last I'd also have to go with the under. If that turns out to be the case, hopefully Murphy will start to fulfill his potential and more than make up the difference. Wiz and Liles can pitch in a bit more as well. I'm staying away from any predictions about Hanifin; I don't want to jinx him.  ;)

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Here's a slam dunk prediction!

The Canes will win more games this season in October than they did last season! :P

LOL

I'm looking at the schedule and if I were an odds maker I'd put the October wins over/under at 3.5. Me, I'll say they get 3 wins and maybe an OT loser point or two.

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Since there have been a couple of people predicting a step back for Rask, I will re-iterate that I expect a step forward for Rask. The guy has stepped up all along his career so I'm betting he keeps doing that. The skill is there, and now he has a full season and a full offseason under his belt.

 

I'll go 40 plus points.

 

That, by the way is solid production at .5ppg. Very solid middle of the pack NHL second line numbers.

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Just to clarify since I was the first to bring up Rask for anything other than a strong positive prediction here: I didn't necessarily predict a step back in scoring for Rask like I did above for Faulk.  Rather, I'm predicting that he will disappoint given the expectations that I sense many on here have for him. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up similar or even slightly better numbers than last year. I just don't expect another significant jump from him like we saw last year.   Which isn't the end of the world; the kid is only 22yo, so slower but steady improvement from here on out is ok in my book.

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From what I've witnessed in preseason, I'm not expecting any regression in Faulk's game.  To me, he looks quicker and his shot looks more powerful.  We shall see.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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We will be better than last season.

 

We will say goodbye to the last of the Cup bunch before the season is over

 

Less than two weeks into the season, my wife will shout, you are not watching another hockey game tonight, are you?

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Some different ones since lots have already been predicted.

 

- Our shootout woes will be replaced by our 3 on 3 woes as we are near the bottom of the league at it.

 

- Hanafin will garner actual rookie of the year attention as a D-Man, but cannot beat McDavid.

 

- People will not be able to stop themselves saying how much better Michelle McMahon is than Chantel

 

- The new pricing patterns will actually decrease attendance of our own fans as more opposing fans from the Bruins and Pens buy up tickets on stubhub from STH

 

- D will be even better than last season and a lot of our scoring plays will come from D and rebounds off of D shots.

 

- Remkin will be wordy, Coastal will be succinct, LakeLivin will be analytical, Superdave will change his avatar at least 5 times, Topshelf will be firm but fair.  And all of this is good.

 

- oh... and Eric Staal will sign for more than 6M per.  Whether it is here or somewhere else, there just is no way he won't be the Alpha Staal.

Edited by hag65

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Some different ones since lots have already been predicted.

 

- Remkin will be wordy, Coastal will be succinct, LakeLivin will be analytical, Superdave will change his avatar at least 5 times, Topshelf will be firm but fair.  And all of this is good.

 

I laughed.  :lol:  Good stuff.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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