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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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I'm not sure about that draft ranking. I think a lot of people expect Matthews, Chychrun, Puljujarvi, Laine, and Tkachuk to make up the top 5 in some order. It's really tough to rank, though, because it seems like this draft is full of big offensive forwards. Laine are Puljujarvi are being compared a lot and people are divided on who's better. They're both massive and super skilled but Laine has maybe the best shot in the draft while Puljujarvi is extremely athletic and an exceptional. I think a lot differs between them personality wise. Laine really seems like an exceptional goal-scorer. Puljujarvi is a really coachable player and seems like he can be a playmaker and goal scorer. When they played on the same line in an international tournament, Puljujarvi got a lot of playmaking for Laine's goals. People say Laine has the higher ceiling while Puljujarvi is the safer pick. I would super happy with either. They both look like beasts. Man, if we could get a top 5 pick, get another trade deadline first, and maybe make some draft day deals.... this draft could really be what the doctor ordered for us. If the LA pick turns out to be low, I'm hoping RF will try to trade up to get some of guys that drop to the mid round. The draft is so far away.. but it's really one of the only things we have to look forward to...

Edited by donwake

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Hag I'm not making excuses for the schedule. I'm just saying that even going 4-0 over the next 4 would not be enough unless the team also shows something in those wins to make Francis think they might keep at a pace above the 60% of awarded points through the month of December, and it's not like December is going to cut us a break with an easy schedule.

 

 

Yeah, I know.  I don't associate that narrative with you.  It's just I hear it from the media types all the time and it just kicked off another rant.

 

Your point about the necessary record to achieve has been spot on all month and I already know we aren't going to make it.  I am just going to the games and waiting for the wrecking ball.

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Also, my basic pace/analysis for every season is simple.  You really need to finish somewhere around 93 points to make it in (give or take) and you have roughly 6 months to get there.

 

That equates to a simple "+11".  What is a "+11"? 

 

Here is a simple way to look at standings that factors in the loser points and is always right.

 

Subtract losses from wins.  That's it.  Then you get a + (or -) value for the fake .500 this league uses.

 

In other words, it makes no difference if you are 2-0-6   or   5-3-0.   Both are +2.   Both are 10 points.

 

This is also useful for comparing between teams with uneven games.  

 

For any given game, a win gets you +1, a loss gets you -1, the loser point makes you stay the same.

 

 

So to get to 93 points, you need to be +11.  (46-35-1 is 93 points.  Any combination of +11 is 93 points)

 

So a very simple pace is to round up to +12 over 6 months.  

 

All you need to do is go +2 every month of the season.  +2 times 6 months is +12 = 94 points.  2 games over fake .500 a month. *

 

We went -1 to start in October.  We needed to therefore go +5 in November to get to +4 and back on the slow but steady pace.  We are already  1-4-2 in November which is -3 for a total of -4 for the year.   We only have 6 games left in November so the best we can do is +2 and we'll be a month behind playoff pace if we somehow won the last 6 games, which who here thinks that is going to happen.

 

So the hole is already incredibly deep.  To believe that the same players are all of a sudden going to have radically different results is just a pipe dream.  Even if you believe it is a lot of bad luck that has gotten us here, who believes that it is going to turn around that dramatically.  Even if we end this month at fake .500 (which means we go 5-1 to end November) then we need to go +6 in December which is 10-4 to get back on pace.  I can already see how we will play the games around Christmas.  Too much ham and too much family causes losses around here.

 

So there is Remkin's same take represented in my way.  He's right, it's pretty grim.

 

 

 

*- The term "Fake .500" refers to the fact that a record of 4-4-8 is considered .500 in this points system.  I call any .500 record with 12 losses and 4 wins "Fake .500"  By this logic, Paul Maurice is an over .500 coach with 529 wins and 592 losses.  

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"...in five of our losses we clearly were the better team but did not win,” Ron Francis told the News & Observer. “That’s 10 points. That’s the difference of where we are in the standings and where we could be." So there's that...?

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Rem, thanks for posting up those projections, I've been following that. Unfortunately, I get a kick in the cods for reading.

 

Hag, I really like the easy way to factor out the loser point by following the fake .500 the league uses. 

 

Good stuff. 

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Rem, thanks for posting up those projections, I've been following that. Unfortunately, I get a kick in the cods for reading.

 

Hag, I really like the easy way to factor out the loser point by following the fake .500 the league uses. 

 

Good stuff. 

 

Thanks.  My buddy and I have been using it for 10 years.  I appreciate it.

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"...in five of our losses we clearly were the better team but did not win,” Ron Francis told the News & Observer. “That’s 10 points. That’s the difference of where we are in the standings and where we could be." So there's that...?

I thought the best team was the one with the most goals. No style points in the NHL.

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Thanks.  My buddy and I have been using it for 10 years.  I appreciate it.

 

I'll borrow it if you don't mind. ;)

 

I'm calling it HagMetrics.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Rem, thanks for posting up those projections, I've been following that. Unfortunately, I get a kick in the cods for reading.

 

Hag, I really like the easy way to factor out the loser point by following the fake .500 the league uses. 

 

Good stuff. 

Ditto here, to both Rem and Hag--thanks... Because NOW WE KNOW HOW BLEAK THINGS ARE (/sarcasm) (But the thanks are sincere.)

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"...in five of our losses we clearly were the better team but did not win,” Ron Francis told the News & Observer. “That’s 10 points. That’s the difference of where we are in the standings and where we could be." So there's that...?

 

When I read that I thought:

 

Well, we haven't stolen a game we shouldn't have won after we played crummy but had some puck luck or we played crummy and our goal tending bailed us out.  Not one game.

 

You need those wins too.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I just read the Gleason stuff posted by M. Smith. Gleason and the coaches all seem to be realistic. In about a week they will reevaluate. In the meantime it can't hurt to have a veteran at practice. 

 

I am very interested to see Slavin skate. He has earned a shot.

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Appreciate the appreciation also Coastal, Top and Hag. Hag's way does seem simpler. I've been known to take the less simple way now and then. It is good to see it done out a different way too. Especially if we get basically the same answer.

 

The loser points are a strange thing, which I have long been a fan of changing around*. The NHL likes them because it creates the illusion of teams bunched up, where teams long out of it, still seem to be in the hunt. But it is a grand illlusion. If you are 10 points out or more on Jan 1, you are just 5 wins away with around 45 games to close that gap. Surely that's doable? Except its almost never done. Teams can close part of the gap, (creating an even more tantalizing illusion), but never quite make it.

 

Because even if a team goes on a nice run, teams above them will not collase to the point that they don't get at least some wins and some loser points. Plus, if you are say 10 points out, there are at least 3-4 teams ahead of you just to get to the cut line team. They are all getting loser points too.

 

Most analysts and teams and even fans are figuring this out too. It's not an effective illusion when the audience knows how the trick is done. So maybe a change will come. The NHL has shown a lot of willingness to change the game, just look at 3 on 3 OT, and maybe the 3 on 3 All Star game. But it won't help this year.

 

The good thing, is that despite Francis' spin on things, he has already said that he realizes that Thanksgiving is the deadline. That given this goofy loser point system, teams out of it by Thanksgiving (think about that, less than 1/3 into the season) are already cooked. This is good for us, ironically, because it at least suggests that, again despite his recent comments, he will not be suckered into thinking this team has a shot after that if things continue as is over the next 4 games.

 

This increases the chance that he will pull the trigger on moves rather than liking our group until the deadline.

 

It is harder to make moves before the deadline, but they do tend to return more than a pure deadline rental. To be frank, why not make the moves if it is clear to us and those fans staying home, that this group isn't working? Make the move from mostly about the future, to all about the future.

 

 

 

*I like the three point game personally, with a clean win worth 3, and OT split 2 points winner, one point loser. This makes all games worth 3 points every time. It also allows teams to make runs if they can rip off a bunch of regulation wins, even if the teams they are chasing compile loser points they can make up ground by getting 3 points. It also add value to a clean win, making the play for the tie less appealing. And finally it rewards the better teams that are winning clean in regulation, and thus better than teams that keep it close and win in OT.

 

The thing the NHL might be trying to avoid though is that with this (3 point) or similar systems, the bottom dwellers will suddenly appear as out of it as they have been all along as the really bad teams will settle to an obvious bottom early.

Edited by remkin

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Just saw the new post about the 10 year celebration of the Canes Stanley Cup win. Glad to see the players coming back. Will Eric and Cam be there?  

 

The betting window is now open.

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Based on donwake's prospects post, i fully expect the Hurricanes to end up with Puljujarvi.  Just a gut feeling.  Would be typical Canes positioning at that - #5...

We do need right wingers.......

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Canes recall Slavin from Charlotte. 

 

http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=788606&navid=DL|CAR|home

 

Maybe Timmy didn't look so good today, word is he hasn't skated in a few weeks, per Chip.

 

This one confuses me a bit, because from what i last read the Checkers had to recall Acosta from Florida and go out and sign an extra defenseman - and still had to throw a forward on the blue line just to have 6 defensemen.  Both teams play their next game Friday.  This is great for Slavin and i've been wanting him to get a shot, but who's playing in Charlotte then?  Unless a couple defensemen will be back by then...

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This one confuses me a bit, because from what i last read the Checkers had to recall Acosta from Florida and go out and sign an extra defenseman - and still had to throw a forward on the blue line just to have 6 defensemen.  Both teams play their next game Friday.  This is great for Slavin and i've been wanting him to get a shot, but who's playing in Charlotte then?  Unless a couple defensemen will be back by then...

It looks like guys are getting back quicker than Morris might have thought. Both Biega and Ganly have practiced this week and Lowe did yesterday in yellow. That, with the return of Cornell, who joined on a PTO last week, should hold them.

 

Full story here, which the Checkers posted late yesterday: http://www.gocheckers.com/articles/1382-defensemen-stepping-up-on-injured-blue-line

Edited by top-shelf-1

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It looks like guys are getting back quicker than Morris might have thought. Both Biega and Ganly have practiced this week and Lowe did yesterday in yellow. That, with the return of Cornell, who joined on a PTO last week, should hold them.

 

Full story here, which the Checkers posted late yesterday: http://www.gocheckers.com/articles/1382-defensemen-stepping-up-on-injured-blue-line

 

That's good news then.  Coupled with the reality that Gleason and Francis are apparently acknowledging concerning Gleason's return, this hints the team is still moving on the youth movement and not pinning hopes on Tim-may.

 

I have another gig tomorrow night so probably won't be able to watch the game.  Someone keep an eye on Slavin for me if he makes it into the lineup and let me know how he looks...

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Saw some of the 10 year Canes coming back this weekend....too bad Aaron Ward won't be in the mix with the recent issues.  Heck he leave in MacGregor Downs in Cary, not even 20 minutes from the rink.  Too sides to any story unfortunately all we here is the bad...

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Well at least it wasn't just us. The bad start has continued for he who shall not be namedski.

 

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2015/11/19/semin-scratched-again-will-the-habs-need-to-make-a-trade/

 

And of course Montreal has plenty besides him and paid little, so just an inconvenience for their 14-3-2 selves. 

 

 

Still, it would have been worse to me if he went up there and light the place on fire. 

Edited by remkin

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So we can't even think about Auston Matthews, which really stinks because this kid is pretty unreal. Not only scored more than a goal a game (not a ppg, actually just shy of 2 ppg) in the US Developmental League last year, but was on a 10 goal, 17 point pace in 14 games in the top mens swiss league before hurting his back (he's supposedly coming back soon). His coach called him "the best player in our league". 

 

So not thinking about him this early in the season is for obvious reasons of too much hockey left. But aside from that we have the new draft lottery format next year. It is truly anti-tanking for the first time in recent history. No one ever really wants to talk tank, but last year was the last year that it even made any sense from a payoff point of view. Of course Buffalo played the tank game to perfection and predictably lost the lottery and got what they were tanking for in Jack Eichel. 

 

That will not work this year (outside of dumb luck).

 

The new lottery will determine the top 3 picking teams. The chances of winning the lottery is 1/5 for the last place team. But the chances of even getting a top 3 pick are less than 50-50 (45-55). So the odds are that the last place team will pick 4th. 

 

Thing is, every spot below last has even worse odds. Second to last: 13.5% win, 34% chance top 3. Third to last: 11.5% win, 28.5% top 3. In fact if you finish third from last, you could pick #6. 

 

Overall this is good. It discourages tanking, and should eliminate the Oilers picking all the top draft choices. But for a team like ours, perhaps on the heals of major change, with the possible dipping down for a pick, would have been better to start this the following year.

 

I guess we could always win the lottery.

Edited by remkin

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