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OBXer

2015/16 In-Season Talk

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So we can't even think about Auston Matthews, which really stinks because this kid is pretty unreal. Not only scored more than a goal a game (not a ppg, actually just shy of 2 ppg) in the US Developmental League last year, but was on a 10 goal, 17 point pace in 14 games in the top mens swiss league before hurting his back (he's supposedly coming back soon). His coach called him "the best player in our league". 

 

So not thinking about him this early in the season is for obvious reasons of too much hockey left. But aside from that we have the new draft lottery format next year. It is truly anti-tanking for the first time in recent history. No one ever really wants to talk tank, but last year was the last year that it even made any sense from a payoff point of view. Of course Buffalo played the tank game to perfection and predictably lost the lottery and got what they were tanking for in Jack Eichel. 

 

That will not work this year (outside of dumb luck).

 

The new lottery will determine the top 3 picking teams. The chances of winning the lottery is 1/5 for the last place team. But the chances of even getting a top 3 pick are less than 50-50 (45-55). So the odds are that the last place team will pick 4th. 

 

Thing is, every spot below last has even worse odds. Second to last: 13.5% win, 34% chance top 3. Third to last: 11.5% win, 28.5% top 3. In fact if you finish third from last, you could pick #6. 

 

Overall this is good. It discourages tanking, and should eliminate the Oilers picking all the top draft choices. But for a team like ours, perhaps on the heals of major change, with the possible dipping down for a pick, would have been better to start this the following year.

 

I guess we could always win the lottery.

 

Although I think moving forward this team needs a franchise center, if we lost out on Matthews, I'd almost be just as happy with Matthew Tkachuck.  Granted he's on an incredible offensive OHL team with Mitch Marner, Christian Dvorak, and other top 5 prospect Max Jones, he's averaging nearly 2ppg as a winger.  He has size and skill, and is known for going to dirty areas.  All things equal, I'd still want Matthews though.

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Interesting interview with Eric Staal

 

Kukla's Korner with Hockey Central video link.

 

“I would like to [re-sign]. I haven’t talked a lot about anything, to be honest," Staal told Hockey Central at Noon Thursday. "Obviously there’s decisions that need to be made moving forward.”.

 

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That was intestersting, good find OBXer. That was more from Eric about his overall thought relative to his situation than I can remember hearing.

 

Despite discussions about value UFA's, and despite all of the apparently good, careful moves Francis has made, this is the big one. How this plays out will set things moving foward more than any other move save perhaps hiring the coach.

 

They didn't ask him the big question though: "Would you waive your NTC if it came to that?". He probably would have dodged it, (Eric is a pretty sophisticated interviewee. He can provide a fairly direct answer without really giving anything away) but the NTC question should have been asked.

 

What I got out of that interview:

 

It sounds like Franics is holding back and playing his cards right up against his vest. Sounds like he really has said, "lets see how things go early, and at some point after Thanksgiving we'll get back together and see where we are". And not providing much of any other feedback to Eric.

 

Two things that might indicate Eric wants to stay:

 

1, Seems to have a sincere awareness and appreciation of the organizational changes and long term plans of Francis and the organization. He says he wants to re-sign. While we kind of assume he is saying the right things, at least he is saying them.

 

2. I really to get the genuine sense that he really is enjoying playing with Jordan. While it doesn't sound like he will hold his breath about staying w/ Jordan, it is a factor that might play in. He genuinely would like to keep playing w/ Jordan and having him around.

 

Eric for me, a guy who elicits a dramatic ambivelence. It's not love-hate, but it's what is really best for this team? Has this team underperformed because of him, or has he suffered in silence and underpeformed because of the team around him? I'm not sure anyone has the truth on that one.

 

He is still one of the best players on the team, and I like to have my cake and eat it too. Also, if Francis keeps him, he has one less position to fill. So this makes me think: "We are better off with him, but it has to be on Francis' terms (much lower pay, no or limited NTC, consider stepping back from the captaincy)." At the end of the day, I'd be happy if that is the outcome. On the other side, there has just been so much losing, so many guys off their best games, over so many years now. Wonder what the return would be....

 

Such a tricky situation. The only thing that is clear are the two extremes of the dichotomy:

 

1. Cannot sign him to the same kind of contract. The conventional wisdom is that the "big" contracts have been hamstrining Francis. And the biggest of these is Eric's. If he stays on the team, it HAS to be on a deal that works for the team.

 

2. Cannot get nothing. Losing E with no return would be a huge loss. The loss of Sekera was big. At least we got a first round pick and a nice prospect. Losing Eric would be an even bigger hole to fill. If he goes, we must get at least a first rounder and either a very good prospect, or a true NHL top 6 forward.

 

This is the big one. From a strategic and tactical point of view it is Francis's biggest issue. What is he thinking I wonder?

Edited by remkin

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I'm speechless. This team has mastered the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. With all the discussion of Eric above, does it not seem that a guy making $9 million a year would be at least your 5th option in a shootout?

I'm beginning to lose some of my faith in BP. Either all of our players really really suck (and have had their worst career scoring years since he arrived), or there is something wrong with the system. Maybe both. Also, I do not remember Lindholm playing center prior to this game. Certainly he hasn't played there much. Maybe I just missed it. Was he really our best option for a D-zone face off leading by one with 4 minutes to play?

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Eklund reporting possible 3 way deal involving us...we get Hamonic from isles then flip him to Edmonton.

So take it with as much salt as you can.

@Eklund: Update> Hamonic to Oilers via Caolina? https://t.co/eQDFM5eaXD

Obviously just a rumor, no actual deal has been made (nor will there be most likely)

Edited by canesfan06

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Wonder if Eklund read this:

 

Kevin Allen of the USA Today: The Islanders are trying to meet Travis Hamonic’s wishes and trade him closer to his home in Manitoba. There may not be many scenarios where the Islanders would be in a better position after trading Hamonic.The Oilers might be the best fit, but they don’t want to trade Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom.
This trade would be much easier for the Islanders to make in the offseason.

The Jets would be a natural landing spot for him. Dustin Byfuglien’s name has come up, but he’s a pending UFA.

Maybe three team trade could work, with Hamonic initially going to a non-contender or rebuilding team, who could then flip him to the Oilers or Jets for prospects or draft picks.

Or, they could send Hamonic to the Oilers for a forward, then flip the forward for a defenseman. Nail Yakupov plus something from Oilers, and then moving Yakupov.

Three team trades are rare, but it might work in this situation.

Edited by remkin

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I would sign up for a deal that involved the Oiler's draft pick coming to us, since that is likely to be a nice pick, and they have a glut of highly drafted fowards too.

Edited by remkin

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normally I would say well its Eklund but I suppose this rumor could have some legs to it.  In some ways it makes a lot of sense. Three way trades aren't easy to work out but it could be a win for us.

 

I can't figure out who we would give up to get the wheels in motion. Islanders rumored to want a big minute D-man.

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normally I would say well its Eklund but I suppose this rumor could have some legs to it.  In some ways it makes a lot of sense. Three way trades aren't easy to work out but it could be a win for us.

 

I can't figure out who we would give up to get the wheels in motion. Islanders rumored to want a big minute D-man.

 

Sounds like Hainsey to me.

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Sounds like Hainsey to me.

 

Its got to be the third party team that cashes in the D-man.  Isles also said to not want a D-man with and expiring contract.

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Someone wake me up when this nightmare is over...jeez.

 

I love the Canes, just not most of the players right now.  Frankly, I'd LOVE to see a Dez Bryant-esque meltdown in front of the cameras by SOMEONE in the locker room...that'd be more entertaining than what's being put out on the ice right now.

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Someone wake me up when this nightmare is over...jeez.

 

I love the Canes, just not most of the players right now.  Frankly, I'd LOVE to see a Dez Bryant-esque meltdown in front of the cameras by SOMEONE in the locker room...that'd be more entertaining than what's being put out on the ice right now.

 

would love to see someone act as if he gives a damn about the Canes descent to the bottom of the NHL.  break a few sticks,  throw some gloves, etc,

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would love to see someone act as if he gives a damn about the Canes descent to the bottom of the NHL.  break a few sticks,  throw some gloves, etc,

Its pretty bad when the ONLY person who showed the ANY emotion last night was Cam slamming his stick against the boards as he exited the ice.  At least he was pissed we lost. Don't know about the rest of the team.

 

Also, with Edmonton's win last night, we are officially the WORST team in the NHL at 15 points. The Oilers and Avalanche are tied with us in points but have 1 more win.

Edited by hopper915

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Also, with Edmonton's win last night, we are officially the WORST team in the NHL at 15 points. The Oilers and Avalanche are tied with us in points but have 1 more win.

We have one less game than Edmonton...so when we lose to LA tomorrow, THEN we'll be the worst

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would love to see a player with a C or an A on his jersey call a players-only meeting to see that these late game losses are not acceptable

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As painful as losing is, it's what the team really needs. We're delusional if we think playoffs are what this team needs (or that making them is even realistic). I really hope Francis's secret plan is to blow it up and that we'll see a completely different path for the team after the draft. I know he's got so little to work with but I hate only having a vague idea of what the management's plan is. It also pains me to see young that are supposed to be part of the future core struggle, namely Skinner and especially Skinner. Why are they struggling so bad? Is it disillusion and lack of effort, bad luck, a need for more guidance, or just mismanagement? The future of every level of this franchise from owners to players is so cloudy that its so surprise some people are so hesitant invest themselves in the team

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 The future of every level of this franchise from owners to players is so cloudy that its so surprise some people are so hesitant invest themselves in the team

 

I believe the market is still there; not making  the playoffs for an extended time period and the price increases is what is keeping fans away

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I believe the market is still there; not making  the playoffs for an extended time period and the price increases is what is keeping fans away

I agree I wasn't talking about the team moving. I think maybe I meant with PK we have no idea what's going on with the sale process except that he has absurd demands that make it seem like he doesn't even want to sell the team. And then why does he hire Don Waddell, the guy known for almost singlehandedly destroying an NHL franchise known as the Atlanta Thrashers, an accomplishment even Mad Mike Milbury can't claim! RF keeps preaching this wait and see mentality as if he can convince fans we can make the playoffs. Just be honest with the fact that we need to go through a rebuild. With coaching, sure the team is following well with dominating possession and getting shots, but when it comes to getting in front of the net and overall effort its like Peters is being ignored by the team so he's making his lines through some random line generator machine each night. And lastly, while it makes sense that guys like Malone, Terry, and Malone should be trash. it makes absolutely no sense that Staals, Skinner, and Lindholm should be this bad. All just a big mess. 

 

I can't help but think a lot of this black cloud would be lifted if we had local ownership.

Edited by donwake

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Also, with Edmonton's win last night, we are officially the WORST team in the NHL at 15 points. The Oilers and Avalanche are tied with us in points but have 1 more win.

 

 

We have one less game than Edmonton...so when we lose to LA tomorrow, THEN we'll be the worst

 

This is one of the perfect scenarios for Hagmetrics.  

 

All the teams have different numbers of games, making it hard to compare.  

 

The Canes are at -4.  There are 3 teams at -5 and another at -4. Columbus is ahead of us in the standings but actually at -5, The 2 games in hand are misleading.  Our slightly less than point per game pace would imply 2 points for the next 2 games, keeping us at -4 and putting us one point ahead of Columbus if we were even in games.

 

But have faith, if we aren't actually the worst we are arguably the worst.  Certainly it's too close to call.

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I can't help but think a lot of this black cloud would be lifted if we had local ownership.

 

 

the owner of SAS or the owner of WRAL would make fantastic owners

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the owner of SAS or the owner of WRAL would make fantastic owners

or even both of them along with a few other locals. I've heard that a local group was interested in the past

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