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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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In other news, SI listed Eric Staal as one of the 13 players most likely traded by the deadline.

 

"Still, there are whispers that he could be this seasons Antoine Vermette—a player who is moved at the deadline in exchange for assets to expedite a rebuild, only to return to his original team as a free agent over the summer. He’d have to accept a vastly discounted offer to do that, but Staal seems genuinely happy with Raleigh, the team and the chance to play with his brother, Jordan."

 

Also interesting from that article, is the possible availability of ex Cane Andrew Ladd, who would be a sweet replacement for Eric in terms of the "C". He has a NTC and probably not interested, and we're never linked in rumors with him, but this is a very very good, legit first line, two way player with grit and leadership.

 

And perhaps even more interesting was the inclusion on that list of one Ryan Murphy.

 

The link:

 

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/01/13/players-most-likely-to-be-traded-before-2016-nhl-trade-deadline

Edited by remkin

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Everyone can ignore this except Lake, so .... I was listening to XM and Liles name came up as a good option for defensive depth on a contender.

 

I have to admit that I agree that over the period of late November through the present Liles has built himself a pretty solid season. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I too think JML will go at the deadline.  He won't be brought back as a UFA here.  He won't bring a high pick, but another 3rd or so won't hurt.

 

My prediction is that as the deadline approaches the Canes will still be out of a playoff spot, and EStaal, Liles, and Versteeg will be traded.  I doubt Ward gets moved unless a contender has a goalie go down with injury.  I doubt Hainsey goes since he has another year on his deal, but it's a possibility. 

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I too think JML will go at the deadline.  He won't be brought back as a UFA here.  He won't bring a high pick, but another 3rd or so won't hurt.

 

My prediction is that as the deadline approaches the Canes will still be out of a playoff spot, and EStaal, Liles, and Versteeg will be traded.  I doubt Ward gets moved unless a contender has a goalie go down with injury.  I doubt Hainsey goes since he has another year on his deal, but it's a possibility. 

 

 

And the Facebook page will light up with "i'm done with this team, why do they trade all of their best players" posts.

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And the Facebook page will light up with "i'm done with this team, why do they trade all of their best players" posts.

 

Yes, but remember, there is no IQ test involved with posting on Facebook.

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Yes, but remember, there is no IQ test involved with posting on Facebook.

 

Thank the maker we have a stringent vetting process on this medium. 

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Everyone can ignore this except Lake, so .... I was listening to XM and Liles name came up as a good option for defensive depth on a contender.

 

I have to admit that I agree that over the period of late November through the present Liles has built himself a pretty solid season. 

 

Thanks for acknowledging that coastal. :cheers:

 

You know I'm somewhat of a fan, but it's never been because I thought Liles is great or even ideal 1st line material for the Canes. It's all relative, in that I appreciate an undersized 35yo guy playing hard and contributing, even if it's in ways some here may not have recognized. He's finally adding a bit to the offense, which is why I suspect he's finally getting at least some appreciation on these boards. Still, overcoming preexisting perceptions is tough; It was just 2 games ago, after Terry and Lindholm were called out on these boards and "responded" with points that someone here threw out Liles name as the next underperforming Cane that needed to get woken up.  That was in spite of Liles having put up half a point a game over the previous 10 or 12 games and being awarded an official scorers "star" a couple of times. 

 

At least Liles has been getting some appreciation from outside these boards.  Been awarded one of the "toys" a couple of times by his teammates, at least 4 "games stars" from official scorers recently, and when Michelle asked Pesce what has contributed to his success the first thing he noted was playing alongside Liles.  That right there is worth the price of admission imo, as I count Pesce as the biggest positive surprise of the season. Pesce also said that Liles is the best puck moving defenseman he's ever played with,(although I don't know how much that means given that the pool is limited to college players, Checkers, and the current Canes D corps :P).  Again, I'm not saying Liles is All Star material lol but on this Canes team I think his absence would leave a bigger hole than some might anticipate. 

 

Of course RF moves Liles at the deadline for whatever he can get. But if we have a realistic shot at a playoff spot (as compared to the misleading "just 2 points back",) the same issue arises with Liles as with E and Versteeg imo.  We've got a paper thin roster and are overslotted across the board talentwise. The margin for error at that point will likely be so tight that I'm guessing losing any of our top-half pending UFAs could jeopardize a playoff spot.  

 

Note that I'm not taking a stance on the "now vs. the future" issue.  I definitely don't want to compromise our future growth for what at best would likely be a shallow run this year.  But I also recognize what breaking that string of playoff-less years might mean to a Canes organization that is currently foundering from a fan base perspective.  I've got to believe that making the playoffs this year would really help to goose season ticket sales for next season.  Hey, here's hoping it even becomes an issue.  If so, we'll at least have seen some excitement between now and that point in time. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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Good points about Liles Lake. Not sure what you were after at the very end there...

 

But as our amazing new defensemen deservedly get the attention, it has to help to have a couple of grizzled vets back there in both Liles and Hainsey. Hainsey gets a lot of flack on here too. But the guy has been overslotted all year since the departure of Sekera, and while a bit slow and underwhelming, he does have a veteran bag of tricks. Faulk is fast rising as a legit All Star, but it still has to help in the development of our trio of rookies having those long timers back there.

 

Of course even as I write about JML and Hainsey, a big grin forms as I can't help but think about the simply amazing arrival of Pesce and Slavin mostly from left field and Hanifin at such a young age.

 

As to the biggest positive surprise, Pesce is definitely on the list, and absolutely amazing, and I'd add PDG too, but to me the biggest surprise is Slavin. He is tied for 3rd on the team in plus/minus, surprisingly with Eric Staal of all people, at a plus 3, while Pesce is a -4. Still, Pesce has slightly more points per game. But really it is more about the surprise than who's better. They're both playing so well, who cares? But I was more aware of Pesce before he got here. Slavin was a 4th round pick!

 

Once we picked Hanifin, most of us knew he was special. So, I'm thinking, well maybe next year Fleury is ready, maybe Murphy has it together....McKeown was still a big unknown. Then along comes Pesce and Slavin and woah. Add in Faulk and Hanifin, and we have instant defense and years to come of it.

 

Thinking back on such names as Michael Jordan (ok he's still here, somewhere), Brett Bellemore, Bobby Sanguinetti, Brett Carson, Bryan Rodney, Jamie McBain, even Jay Harrison, and possibly Ryan Murphy, even Anton Babchuk, aside from Faulk, our prospects on defense back as long as I've been on this board ALL rank below the three rookies we have out there now. Well below.

 

Unfortunately Murphy has been drawing criticism lately, and may be fast becoming the new defensive Zach Boychuk. I hope not, but given what's in the pipeline, at some point he probably should be trade bait.

 

Still, the future on the blueline and the goal is pretty bright. And with what Aho did at Juniors, and PDG looking pretty good, one more good forward draft and.....there I go again. Just enjoy the defense.

Edited by remkin

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Good points about Liles Lake. Not sure what you were after at the very end there...

 

. . .

 

As to the biggest positive surprise, Pesce is definitely on the list, and absolutely amazing, and I'd add PDG too, but to me the biggest surprise is Slavin. He is tied for 3rd on the team in plus/minus, surprisingly with Eric Staal of all people, at a plus 3, while Pesce is a -4. Still, Pesce has slightly more points per game. But really it is more about the surprise than who's better. They're both playing so well, who cares? But I was more aware of Pesce before he got here. Slavin was a 4th round pick!

. . .

 

Oops, some undeleted text snippets that got pushed below the scrolled window. Deleted it.

 

I had Pesce as more surprising than Slavin because I mistakenly though Slavin had spent some time in Charlotte last year. I just looked him up and discovered that he played all last season in college as well. Color me corrected, I'll make that a co-award between the two. I've actually got Hanifin a notch below the other two at this point, but he's only 18 years old! I can't wait to see what he looks like in a year or two.  PDG looks good so far but I'm much more reserved about his future than the young d-men.  Not saying he won't get there, just that I need to see a lot more from him before I'll have the same level of confidence about his future that I have about the d-men d-kids. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think Hanifin is #6. Still impressive for a teenager.

 

BTW who's last on the team? Faulk. I know he faces the top lines of the other teams, but he needs to not be last.

Edited by remkin

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All of a sudden the playoffs are a real possibility.  The Canes are tied for points for the wild card spot.  Let me say this again.  The Canes are tied for points for the wild card spot.  This is the first time we can talk playoffs like this in what seems like forever.  Whoever set the bar high and said we should shoot for a 5-6 ranking in the east might all of a sudden be a real possibility.  I laughed at first but now after thinking about it I am not sure I am laughing anymore and am seriously considering it as a real possibility.

 

The NYI head coach told the media that we have a really good team and that this team was going to win a lot of games.  ESPN ranked this team #10 in the power rankings a week ago and that is unheard of from them.  I am not sold now that this team should liquidate assets.  Especially if they're playing like this and winning.  If this team can make the playoffs this season then that would be a HUGE win for this franchise and the overall development of our young team.  Start the island talk Rem.  I am sold.  Brindy said it best a few nights ago.  He stated this team has to start winning.  He sounded very serious and as if he just had a real locker room talk.  

 

These are not scrub teams we're beating right now.  it's not like we're on an easy schedule.  We are playing and winning against good teas.  On to the post season we march boys.  Let's acquire someone to help us in the process and resign our vets to REASONABLE contract extensions.

Edited by bluedevil58

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 Start the island talk Rem.  I am sold.  Brindy said it best a few nights ago.  He stated this team has to start winning.  He sounded very serious and as if he just had a real locker room talk.  

 

 

 

 

Funny, but in Chat I was sort of kidding about taking the tarps off the docks on the Island, but in all seriousness, it is not just the wins, but the team is really looking the part. We have two really solid goalies, and Skinner is back and Lindholm is knocking on the door. With our 3 stellar rookie d men playing like vets, this team just seems for real right now. I've dusted off the docks on the Island before only to have them fall back, but right now they look for real.

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1 Dont get fixated on single Stat for Faulk. 2 Ron should follow his plan for the team. I think we have had enough of allowing a streak derail the long term building goals that will serve us well for years to come. We have to get better forwards now that the D has been addressed.

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All of a sudden the playoffs are a real possibility.  The Canes are tied for points for the wild card spot.  Let me say this again.  The Canes are tied for points for the wild card spot.  This is the first time we can talk playoffs like this in what seems like forever.  Whoever set the bar high and said we should shoot for a 5-6 ranking in the east might all of a sudden be a real possibility.  I laughed at first but now after thinking about it I am not sure I am laughing anymore and am seriously considering it as a real possibility.

 

The NYI head coach told the media that we have a really good team and that this team was going to win a lot of games.  ESPN ranked this team #10 in the power rankings a week ago and that is unheard of from them.  I am not sold now that this team should liquidate assets.  Especially if they're playing like this and winning.  If this team can make the playoffs this season then that would be a HUGE win for this franchise and the overall development of our young team.  Start the island talk Rem.  I am sold.  Brindy said it best a few nights ago.  He stated this team has to start winning.  He sounded very serious and as if he just had a real locker room talk.  

 

These are not scrub teams we're beating right now.  it's not like we're on an easy schedule.  We are playing and winning against good teas.  On to the post season we march boys.  Let's acquire someone to help us in the process and resign our vets to REASONABLE contract extensions.

 

I'm actually, against my better judgement, starting to sway in a more-positive direction myself.  However, thanks but no thanks on the 'let's acquire someone to help us in the process'.  Even if this team sneaks in, i still don't see a deep run and i still don't want RF to pull a JR on us and start mortgaging the future.  I still say stay the course, continue focusing on the future, and if bonus prizes happen in the process, then enjoy the gravy.  But don't hold on to anyone whose departure would be improve future potential, and no rentals.

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It sure looks like Tampa Bay is trying to accommodate Drouin. With 3 rookie defenseman looking to have such a bright future, does anybody think that we might part with Hayden Fleury (3rd overall for 7th overall), possibly sweetening the deal with our second, or even the lower of our two firsts. Drouin has not done well in the NHL yet, but his junior career suggests he could be an elite offensive talent. If he is moved, might he be the next Seguin, who is mismatched on the team that drafted him, but could take off with a change of scenery? It seems like we have a lot of young talent on D, and Drouin could be a young player on offense who could blossom.

Also agree that if Andrew Ladd could be acquired, I would love to see him back wearing the sightless eye. No idea what it would take to get him or if he would come here.

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While it feels awesome to be sitting in the realm of a playoff bubble again...and that's a sad testament to the state of us as Hurricanes fans...I still think the organization needs to focus on the long-term and think in terms of a modest re-build.

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Lest we pat ourselves on the back too quickly, and believe me I so badly want to, lets just recall that Columbus is not playing all that well this year, and St Louis is dealing with ? several injuries. Saying that though, I thought our play last night was awesome, and at least accounted for part of the ragtag play we saw in the Blues players.

 

Now, lets see if we can sustain these lately unimaginable feelings. Go Canes

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Yeah, but this team has had a pretty long run of facing some pretty good teams and passing test after test.

 

Since December 4th, we are 12-5-3, with no loss by more than one goal (save one empty netter).

 

In that stretch:

 

Montreal, Dallas, TWO west cost trips, Chicago, Washington (twice), Pittsburgh, Nashville, St. Louis, and even Arizona has been playing well.

 

The team is playing like a 12-5-3 team. To me that is not in question.

 

What is in question is can this team keep playing like this? That's what Island's are built on. There has been enough potential talent in past years too, but it has never come together for a prolonged time. Not enough depth, and certain guys just not their 100 point selves any more. Other seasons have also seen nice runs. Just about every team has at least one nice run every year. The good teams do it more than not. Teams that dig holes have to keep it up for very long stretches.

 

On the standings, there are two illusions. 1. Three teams have 3 games in hand. and 2. We can't keep winning every game.

 

But gaps have been closed. There is enough hockey left if this team keeps it up.

 

In Sum: My opinion: The N value is big enough that this team as it is playing is a solid playoff team. But we have seen nice stretches before. Can they keep it up?

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I agree that we should not get into renting players even if in the race. One exception would be if a guy on a bad contract with some scoring pop could be had for a 3rd rounder or below, like we got for Tlusty last year.

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Wow, so DiG is ready but he and McG are headed back to CLT to make room for Gerbs and... TERRY??

 

I have to wonder now whether Gerbs is being battle-tested/showcased as a potential sweetener with one of our pending UFAs.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I think there are two scenarios that make the Eric thing easier:

 

1. Team folds. Much easier to trade Eric both from the team's end and Eric getting to make a playoff run before testing UFA.

 

2. Team plays well, and Eric is ready to take a deep discount from his previous deal, and at least allow some waiving of the NTC in the new contract (maybe a limited NTC).

 

The best case scenario to me is #2. Eric signs for a nice discount, say $5.5 million, limited NTC. (This whole not make less than his baby bro argument seems pretty stupid), and the team makes the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

You clearly missed my reference point of "baby bro" Jordan making 6 mil. I do not think Eric's ego,being the "C" or his input from his agent will allow him to accept 5.5 mil. Is it stupid, I don't think so since we are all just speculating.We have no idea what is going on in all of their minds at this point. Is suggesting Eric will take 5.5 mil "stupid"? I don't think so but I think it is unrealistic.

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With all the discussion about where we currently are on paper it hit me that we can look at the actual league standings.  I'm almost positive that in the event of an uneven number of games played the standings are decided by points %. Plus, that's the only thing that makes sense statistically.  If something happened and the NHL had to end the regular season right now here's what the Eastern Conference playoff picture would look like:

 

Team                                     Gms      Pts %    Pts      Proj/82     S/O Wins  

1. Washington Capitals (Pa)   43      0.802      69         131.6            2

2. Florida Panthers (Ad)          44     0.648       57        106.2            5

3. Detroit Red Wings (Ad)       44      0.602      53           98.8           1

4. New York Islanders (Pa)      44      0.602      53           98.8           3

5. New York Rangers (Pa)       43      0.593      51           97.3           1

6. Boston Bruins (Ad)               42     0.560      47           91.8           2

7. Tampa Bay Lightning (Ad)   43      0.558      48           91.5          2

8. Montreal Canadiens (Ad)     44      0.557      49           91.3          2          

9. Philadelphia Flyers (Pa)       41      0.549      45          90.0           1

10. Pittsburgh Penguins (Pa)   42      0.548      46          89.8           1

11. Ottawa Senators (Ad)        44       0.523      46          85.7           3

12. Carolina Hurricanes (Pa)   45       0.522      47          85.6           0

13. New Jersey Devils (Pa)      45       0.522      47          85.6           2

 

Some notes:

The site I copied this from hates the current division names so they used the old ones (Patrick, Adams) instead.

I didn't break out the top 3 Division qualifiers since it's not an issue regarding the wild card right now

I listed shoot out wins since that's essentially the first tie breaker (lower is better)

 

At the current pace in the East it will take 91 or 92 points to make the playoffs.  Don't be too concerned about the 82 game projection showing us as 5.7 points back of the 8th spot.  That represents a full season and we're about half way through so I've got us as about half of that back right now (3 points).  Not bad given how we started and almost 40 games yet to play. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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You clearly missed my reference point of "baby bro" Jordan making 6 mil. I do not think Eric's ego,being the "C" or his input from his agent will allow him to accept 5.5 mil. Is it stupid, I don't think so since we are all just speculating.We have no idea what is going on in all of their minds at this point. Is suggesting Eric will take 5.5 mil "stupid"? I don't think so but I think it is unrealistic.

 

 

Slap, first, as is so often the case, I was not aiming this at you. I have seen the "Eric won't take less than his brother" thesis in several blogs and articles as well as on here. No offense aimed your way at all.  I also have no way of knowing that you might not be right. He may not take less than Jordan.

 

What I'm saying is that Jordan's salary is a straw man comparison. It has nothing at all to do with what Eric is worth. If I'm a teacher and my baby bro is a doctor, he makes more than me, his age and our birth order are irrelevant. There are a lot of pro athletes whose big brothers never made the pros. 

 

Also, Jordan is significantly overpaid. So if Eric pegs Jordan's salary as the basement because it's his little brother, but Jordan is significantly overpaid, then there is an anchoring bias that would push us to once again, overpay Eric.

 

Also, baby bro has a NTC. Does this mean Eric would not sign without one?

 

Eric's valuation in an arbitration would compare Eric to "like" players on average, not the most overpaid ones (Jordan). Of course Eric has to try to estimate what he'd fetch as a UFA, which different than a true open market, since the supply of capable centers will be limited to those that are UFA's, a number that drops every time a team re-signs there's.

 

Compared to "like" players who put up 50-55 points, he would be valued at closer to $5 million/year, if not less. On the UFA market, he could get more, quite possibly over $6 million. But if Eric holds out for that >$6 million in UFA, it still has nothing to do with Jordan's salary.

 

Finally, I have never seen anything that quotes Eric, or anyone who would know, saying he would never allow himself to make less than Jordan.

 

Hey, it may be true, but really it makes little sense to me.

Edited by remkin

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