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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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I'd throw Alt in against Toronto and Calgary. Continue with the rotation as if Cam was here. Give Taco the two tougher games and he should also be very fresh for the Rangers.Throwing Alt against New York and Chicago would just be cruel.I think BP needs to see Alt before he throws him to the wolfs.

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I doubt we'll see Altshuller any unless Lack completely poops the bed. We have 4 games in 6 nights against Toronto, NYR, Flames, and Hawks. IF, they decide to get Altshuller in, maybe Sunday vs the Flames, but a real #1 should be able to handle 4 games in 6 nights.

 

It's also a good test to see if Lack can take the reigns and be a #1. People always say a goalie has to get in a groove, well now is his chance to get in that groove and prove that he can be a starting goalie in this league. It'll also be good for us to see what we have in Lack, which can then help us make a decision.

 

Although Altshuller is having a great year, let's not forget that he couldn't even get any starts last year in the ECHL as he was that bad. I'd rather this team not rush our goalie prospects, and give them time to grow in the AHL. 

 

First things first though, give Lack the reigns and see what he can do. Again, if they want to get Altshuller in, I peg the Calgary game Sunday. Western Conference opponent and not a high danger team.

 

I've got to agree with caniac. Once we're were definitely out if it I can see the Canes evaluating yutes.  But at this point think about the message Peters would be sending Lack if he started Altshuler right off the bat; basically, it's "we've got absolutely no faith in you".  I don't see that happening at this point.  Although I could see Alt maybe getting the Calgary game if Lack is mediocre in the next two.  

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Good point about the message Lake.

 

I'd guess Peters isn't going to veer too far off his path of "win and your in", so I'd see Lack getting the nod first.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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If we can get to February fairly close I think there is opportunity to gain some ground. I took a look at teams currently fighting for a playoff spot and looked at their schedules for February. I also looked at how many games they would be playing against the Eastern teams in the playoff hunt or going to secure a spot. I think we have some opportunities with the February schedule.

 

Team       Games Played        Pts            Feb Home Games           Feb Away Games 

BOSTON           45                   53                    6                                       8

* 6 consecutive games on the road

* 4 games vs Eastern Contenders

JERSEY            47                   50                    5                                       8

* 9 games vs Eastern Contenders

OTTAWA          46                   50                    7                                       6        

* 5 games vs Eastern Contenders

MONTREAL     47                   50                    7                                       6

 *5 games vs Eastern Contenders

PITTS               45                   49                    7                                        6

* 9 Games vs Eastern Contenders

PHIL                 44                    48                   8                                        7

* 5 straight away games

* 8 games vs Eastern Contenders

Carolina           47                    48                   8                                        5

*7 games vs Eastern Contenders                  

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Some of this has drifted into the Staal Poll discussion, but I'll try to get it back here.

 

There is a renewed pessimism over the last few days. Understandable, we have dropped two games in a row, and just got handled by Pittsburgh, and Ward out.

 

But by my measure we remain very much in the hunt. THAT said, it is still an uphill battle and the odds are decidedly against us. But we are in it.

 

I had thought we would be hurt more by games in hand, but that has tightened and in my projected model, we remain a theoretical 4 points back.

 

I agree that the cut line will be low this year. 93 or maybe even less. Slap has pointed out the scheduling issues of teams ahead of us, and I will just point out again, that really none of them seem to be putting anything together outside of perhaps Philly, who for some reason still have 3 games in hand. At the moment the middle of the pack seems soft and squishy and a lot of parity.

 

My method gives teams points for games not played equal to their record. If the fraction is close, I give them another point. So, while not worst case, it is very slightly weighted worst case.

 

The current projection for standings if games played are awarded points as if played:

 

Pittstburgh 52

Ottawa 52

Philly 52

NJ 51

MTL 50

Carolina 48

 

4 points out.

 

Now the pace, will have to be winning at a high rate based on historical 93 point cut line. (Last year was a McEichel outlier as the tanking teams gave points up). If ever there seemed to be a year where 92 or dare say even 91 w/ tiebreakers might get a team in, this seems to be it a the moment.

 

Losing Ward is a blow, and even more so, if some of his most recent uneven play was due to playing with a concussion. But there really is a history of relative unknown AHL goalies coming in this time of year and getting super hot. Perhaps in part due to the unknown factor. And Altshuller surely looks like he might be capable of it. This is why I also want to see him get a start or two at some point before Ward gets back.

 

Lastly the odds are against us for at least two reasons: (not counting Cam's injury):

 

1. There are 6 teams vying for one last WC spot. Just based on that, it would be 17% chance, though it may be a touch better considering the second WC and division spots.

 

2. We are 4 points back (estimated). Starting from any deficit worsens those odds.

 

But 4 points is closable. And a new winning streak would change things again.

Edited by remkin

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Moving it back from the "What Do With E" poll:

 

Let's simplify this whole thing. :grin:

 

I laid out why I think 93 points will qualify for a wild card spot for this year. http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23321-eric-staal-poll/page-3#entry427092

 

We need 45 points to get to 93. That's winning points at a 0.643 pace.  Over our last 10 games we've won points at a 0.65 pace (which obviously includes our last 2 games, which were less than stellar).

 

Here's what 45 points over our remaining 35 games looks like:

22-12-1

21-11-3

20-10-5

19 -9 -7

18 -8 -9

17- 7-11

 

We finish as above and there's a good chance we make the playoffs. Regardless of how many teams are between us and the wild card right now.  Regardless of how many games in hand the other teams currently have. Regardless of how we do it (with a nice streak or spreading out the points evenly).

 

I'd call that tough but not necessarily unrealistic.  And it's entirely possible that 92 points (or even 91) might qualify.  I wouldn't count on it, but if it comes down to that extra point making a difference to the Canes, well, then we'd have had quite an exciting ride the rest of the way. :thumbsup:

Edited by LakeLivin

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Here's what 45 points over our remaining 35 games looks like:

22-12-1

21-11-3

20-10-5

19 -9 -7

18 -8 -9

17- 7-11

 

 

We are +1 (20-19-8).  93 points is +11.  All your records are +10 to get us to +11.

 

I agree with you and Rem.

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Moving it back from the "What Do With E" poll:

 

Let's simplify this whole thing. :grin:

 

I laid out why I think 93 points will qualify for a wild card spot for this year. http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23321-eric-staal-poll/page-3#entry427092

 

We need 45 points to get to 93. That's winning points at a 0.643 pace.  Over our last 10 games we've won points at a 0.65 pace (which obviously includes our last 2 games, which were less than stellar).

 

Here's what 45 points over our remaining 35 games looks like:

22-12-1

21-11-3

20-10-5

19 -9 -7

18 -8 -9

17- 7-11

 

We finish as above and there's a good chance we make the playoffs. Regardless of how many teams are between us and the wild card right now.  Regardless of how many games in hand the other teams currently have. Regardless of how we do it (with a nice streak or spreading out the points evenly).

 

I'd call that tough but not necessarily unrealistic.  And it's entirely possible that 92 points (or even 91) might qualify.  I wouldn't count on it, but if it comes down to that extra point making a difference to the Canes, well, then we'd have had quite an exciting ride the rest of the way. :thumbsup:

 

Good stuff and agree. Those records look tough, but point out the utter importance of putting together winning streaks. It's going to be tough with the nearly unbeatable Chicago tucked in there, but say we do another 5-0 run. Suddenly 19-9-7 becomes 14-9-7.

 

This is why the teams that make these moves always get a serious hot streak in there. So might as well start one.

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I feel like I'm being debbie downer because I obviously want to see the team win.

 

What gives me the most pause is I don't think this is achievable getting .900 or below goaltending.  We need some consistent .920-.940 numbers over the long haul.  Eddie hasn't shown he can do it, neither has Ward.  Altshuller has done it in two leagues but not the NHL.  Somebody is going to have to emerge as a true #1 and take this team on his back.

 

Then there is the trade deadline (I know debbie downer again).

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I want to see the team win, too. I just am trying to be the voice of "Francis has some tough decisions to make and he can't view this with his rose colored glasses on". JR guess wrong time after time. His motto was "Neither a buyer nor a seller be".

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:lol: That's me chuckling at how definitive everyone seems.  Right now we're essentially 6 points out. (Boston is only 5 up but has 3 games in hand and isn't going to go 0-3. The other teams with games in hand can't get to more than 6 ahead even if they win all of them).  

 

Here's what I predict is going to happen: Canes go 5-2 over the next 7 to finally get over hockey .500 and pull to within 3 or 4 points of the final wid card spot with 34 games left to play (and pass 2 or 3 of the 5 teams between us and the last spot).  And everyone here will probably be right back to where they were before the Oil game. :dizzy:

 

Which is not to say I think we'll make the playoffs., or necessarily even make a strong run at it after we get close again.  I just don't think the team is done "richarding" around with us Caniacs yet.  The writer I quoted in my signature line below hit the nail on the head.

 

The above post is from right after the Nucks game. The sentiment of many was very "stick a fork in it, we're done"-ish.  We actually went 5-1-1 instead of 5-2.  I'm not saying we're a playoff team (3 of those wins were against the BJs and Leafs), but seems like I was right about the Canes not being done messing with our heads . . .

 

Conversation overheard somewhere in the Carolinas tonight:

 

Hag: Hey Big Guy, do you think Lake might actually be psychic?

Big Guy: Nah, I think it's more likely the Broken Clock principle. Throw me another beer.

 

(For the record, I'm with Big Guy. :P)

Edited by LakeLivin

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So what this team is clearly lacking now is top end scoring. No, not a newsflash, but just a reality.

 

Our top forward has 28 points. That is tied for #96 in the league for forward. Using my simple 90 "top Line" forwards approach, it is fair to say that we don't have a single, clear cut top line forward, let alone an elite one. We do have a few guys right at that line, suggesting a good number of essentially elite second liners.

 

To me this is more reason to under no circumstances overpay Eric.

 

15 teams have a 40 or better point forward at this point in the season, and 11 teams have at least 2 forwards over 36 points. (Dallas, has  4, Washington has 3).

 

This is why I think of trades for the likes of Johansen and Drouin. It really does not look like Eric or Jordan will end up in that company either. This is the thing Francis has to find. It is also, not easy to find.

Edited by remkin

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Conversation overheard somewhere in the Carolinas tonight:

 

Hag: Hey Big Guy, do you think Lake might actually be psychic?

Big Guy: Nah, I think it's more likely the Broken Clock principle. Hand me another beer.

 

(For the record, I'm with Big Guy. :P)

 

He actually said "Throw me another beer", but the stopped clock thing was dead on.

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rem, you bring up a point I'd wish to explore a little more in depth, altho recognize that this discussion likely belongs more appropriately in the rumors and trade thread. But since you've mentioned on here, I'll persist(mods move if necessary).

 

At any rate, I'd like a little more discussion on the Drouin situation in Tampa. Apparently, despite his petulant appearance with his demands, it is being circulated that there are "several" teams still interested? Now, I know the reputation of Steve Yzerman is said to be "above reproach", but is he perhaps being forced into use of strong arm tactics to avoid other mutinous tactics or "towing the line in general" on behalf of 31 other GMs?

 

If so, than does this not put the apparent stalemate between this very YOUNG and potentially BRASH player into somewhat different light? By this, I mean could this potentially be a repeat of a somewhat parallel problem we witnessed with one Tyler Seguin?

 

Now this then becomes a situation of, if this team would figuratively "walk the plank for this player", could he respond much like Seguin for us? IDK, but wish someone could respond, pro or con. I mean, he is another 5 10 ish guy at 185lbs!!

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I was listening to a lot of Drouin coverage on XM yesterday. There is near 100% agreement that the player and his agent are handling this badly. Also, that it will take years of near perfect behavior for Drouin to work past his new reputation. There was disagreement over how much of this is on the agent and how much on Drouin. But this will also drop his price.

 

I am no expert on Drouin's head, but there are signs that he might not be as much of a primadonna as this episode suggests. Though he is clearly frustrated at not being a regular NHL player and this is butting against the Yzerman, Detroit, "you will stay in the AHL 'till we dang well say you can come up" game plan. He did play games in the AHL and reports were that his AHL teammates liked him.

 

Patrick O Sullivan was on and was asked if Drouin was still an elite prospect. His answer was that he had not yet figured out how to play in the NHL, but his talent was indeed elite. Last night John and Tripp were asked if we would be interest in Drouin. John didn't even pause and said, "yes". Tripp was a bit more reserved given the situation.

 

I love the idea of grabbing a guy whose stock is down, who could become the very thing we need: elite scoring. He is a wizard with the puck and put up sick numbers in Juniors. He was picked very high at #3.

 

Yes, the size thing might come up, but my hope is that we can pick some big high end forwards in this year's draft, that could mitigate his size some.

 

I think Yzerman will not trade him right away, so as not to look weak. But after some time goes by he might. I would surely be kicking the tires.The problem is what it would take to get him. That is where these discussions get tough. Also, the conventional thinking is that Yzerman will mainly want to trade him to a West Conf. team so as to lessen the blow when the kid starts lighting teams up.

Edited by remkin

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I think any holdover from the stance the agent and player are taking will disappear quickly if Drouin goes somewhere else and contributes at his skill level.  Personally, I think the stance is wrong - he needs to be playing hockey.  I also hope the Canes would at least kick the tires and see what it would take

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I don't think the Drouin stand will have a great impact on his trade price. Yzerman seemed to indicate a trade deal was in the works and Drouin's agent asked he sit him instead of risking injury in the AHL. It isn't unusual to sit a player about to be traded but usually its the team that wants to sit the player, Obviously there is something else going on between GM and agent and it has been poorly handled but Drouin has too much talent to not draw interest.

 

Canes should at least kick the tires.

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TheHockeyNews (http://www.thehockeynews.com/) is starting to pay the Canes some attention.  Two new articles:

 

What do the surging Hurricanes do about Eric Staal? http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/what-do-the-surging-hurricanes-do-about-eric-staal

Pretty much hits the issues we've already been discussing for a while . . .

 

Carolina’s rookie defensemen are growing up fast.  http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/carolinas-rookie-defensemen-are-growing-up-fast/

Since the progress of our d-kids is old news to us, here's the most interesting part of the article to me:

 

It must be fun to project what this ‘D’ corps will be like in three years and in fact, that’s exactly what the Canes are doing.  “You do have to project now due to the salary cap,” said assistant GM and director of hockey operations Mike Vellucci.

 

 

I'd love to know what that actually looks like in the Canes front office . . .

Edited by LakeLivin

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TheHockeyNews (http://www.thehockeynews.com/) is starting to pay the Canes some attention.  Two new articles:

 

What do the surging Hurricanes do about Eric Staal? http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/what-do-the-surging-hurricanes-do-about-eric-staal

Pretty much hits the issues we've already been discussing for a while.

 

Carolina’s rookie defensemen are growing up fast.  http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/carolinas-rookie-defensemen-are-growing-up-fast/

We already know about our d-kids, so here's the most interesting part of the article to me:

 

It must be fun to project what this ‘D’ corps will be like in three years and in fact, that’s exactly what the Canes are doing.  “You do have to project now due to the salary cap,” said assistant GM and director of hockey operations Mike Vellucci.

 

 

I'd love to know what that actually looks like in the Canes front office . . .

Great stuff, Lake. Thanks for posting.

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With the Drouin situation playing out in Tampa I'm really glad JR is no longer here. I could see a 10 year ,escalating pay, NTC contract with a forth sweater letter. If you can't find your game with a playoff team, maybe you need time in the AHL. Grow up, adjust, overcome. If you can't do that there is a new Tiddly Winks league starting.

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