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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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The home page has a full write up on the celebration.

HURRICANES ALUMNI #17 ROD BRIND'AMOUR #13 RAY WHITNEY #2 GLEN WESLEY #39 DOUG WEIGHT #26 ERIK COLE #6 BRET HEDICAN #22 MIKE COMMODORE #7 NICLAS WALLIN #14 KEVYN ADAMS #27 CRAIG ADAMS #24 ANDREW HUTCHINSON NHL TROPHIES ON DISPLAY STANLEY CUP PRINCE OF WALES TROPHY (EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS) CONN SMYTHE TROPHY (PLAYOFFS MVP) SELKE TROPHY (TOP DEFENSIVE FORWARD) ASSORTED 2005-06 MEMORABILIA

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JonKerfoot, I stand corrected lol, the 8:55 is Power play TOI/G over 3 seasons and 107 games. He obviously wasn't on the powerplay every game. This may help with the stats. http://www.rotowire.com/hockey/player.htm?id=3748

Ryan Murphy NHL Stats
OPTIONS:

 

 

Huh? The numbers in your comments still don't jibe. It looks like you're claiming that Murphy's been on the ice for PPs at nearly nine minutes a game, and there's no way, repeat, NO WAY that can be correct. Even Justin Faulk's not on the PP for that much time per game.

 

The rotowire.com link more correctly indicates that Murphy's been on the ice for PPs a little over two minutes a game in his NHL career.

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While I'm fairly neutral on the issue of Keep vs Trade Murphy, I think the more telling stat on this player would be to compare the points he's scored vs those his defensive breakdowns have lead to points for the opposing team? Seems like I've read somewhere that this occurred 3 times, just in the last Calgary game, just saying?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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While I'm fairly neutral on the issue of Keep vs Trade Murphy, I think the more telling stat on this player would be to compare the points he's scored vs those his defensive breakdowns have lead to points for the opposing team? Seems like I've read somewhere that this occurred 3 times, just in the last Calgary game, just saying?

 

Numbers don't support your allegation, KJUN. If Murphy had been on the ice for 3 scores, then his +/- for the Calgary game wouldn't have been zero.  In addition, since Murphy doesn't play on PK and two of the four goals for the Flames were on the power play, at worst he'd have been on the ice for two scores.

 

https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/car-vs-cgy/2016/02/03/2015020758#game=2015020758,game_state=live,lock_state=live

 

Then again, maybe this isn't the most accurate account - Sean Monahan for the Flames had a goal and three assists and is still only shown as a +2.... ;-)

Edited by JonKerfoot

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Yeah, JonKerfoot, I see your point, and only reflect what I'd read elsewhere, but as you point out, somehow these "numbers" are indecipherable( ie, Beauty is in the eyes of the Beholder).

 

PS- love your moniker

Edited by KJUNKANE

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We debate plus minus periodically here. A couple of points from my point of view that have to be considered.

 

First, it is a very crude stat, since there are 11 other players on the ice, not the least of which are the goalies. Since the net effect on both sides (the plus and the minus) is 1/12, the stat is limited.

 

My take is this: if plus/minus is to be usefull in isolation (not watching the player play), then it is best used A: over long stretches of games. The old "n" value debate. B.the player relative to the team. I like to rank all players on a team by plus/minus, then look over multiple years. If the player in question is routinely in the top 5 guys on the team in plus/minus, that means something.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is more advanced stats. Is the player protected? Is he playing vs. top line players? Is he getting mostly offensive zone starts?

 

And finally for dmen, is he paired with a particularly weak partner?

 

When all of this is factored in, then to me, plus minus is a meaningful number. But the idea of a guy being "even" in a single loss meaning much? Not in isolation.

 

Example: Murphy turns over 3 blatantly bad pucks (eye test), but the goalie robs the eventual shooter one time, another the other dman gets back and breaks up the chance, and finally one goal happens, but Murphy happens to be on the ice on a line change, trailing the play, when Skinner sets up LIndholm and gets a plus one for that. Murphy ends up even.

 

I think that the stat is useless in a single game in isolation. Sure, if a guy stinks out loud and is -3 for the game it makes sense, but really because it is just confirming what the eye test already knew.

 

Murphy looked very shaky to me vs. Calgary. That said, it was his first NHL game in a while, and the entire team whiffed, so I need to see more to really assess him.

Edited by remkin

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While I'm fairly neutral on the issue of Keep vs Trade Murphy, I think the more telling stat on this player would be to compare the points he's scored vs those his defensive breakdowns have lead to points for the opposing team? Seems like I've read somewhere that this occurred 3 times, just in the last Calgary game, just saying?

 

 

Numbers don't support your allegation, KJUN. If Murphy had been on the ice for 3 scores, then his +/- for the Calgary game wouldn't have been zero.  In addition, since Murphy doesn't play on PK and two of the four goals for the Flames were on the power play, at worst he'd have been on the ice for two scores.

 

https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/car-vs-cgy/2016/02/03/2015020758#game=2015020758,game_state=live,lock_state=live

 

Then again, maybe this isn't the most accurate account - Sean Monahan for the Flames had a goal and three assists and is still only shown as a +2.... ;-)

 

PP goals for and PK goals against aren't counted in the +- stat.  (short handed goals are counted both ways)

 

I agree with rem, the stat is useful but only with larger numbers and when taken in context.  E.g., earlier this year, even ignoring the too small "n", I wouldn't have thought it fair to compare, say, Pesce's +- vs Hanifin's as it seemed like Hanifin was getting much more "protected" ice time against opponents bottom lines. (that seems to have changed as the season progressed)

Edited by LakeLivin

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I forgot to add that historically Murphy is very sheltered. He plays more vs bottom players and in o zone starts. Not sure about the Calgary game, it is harder to protect a guy on the road, where you change last.

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Huh? The numbers in your comments still don't jibe. It looks like you're claiming that Murphy's been on the ice for PPs at nearly nine minutes a game, and there's no way, repeat, NO WAY that can be correct. Even Justin Faulk's not on the PP for that much time per game.

 

The rotowire.com link more correctly indicates that Murphy's been on the ice for PPs a little over two minutes a game in his NHL career.

Sorry for the confusion with the stats. Let me put it another way.

Ryan has played in 108 NHL games with roughly 18:20 minutes TOI/G. He has fired 182 shots on goal,so his trigger finger isn't in question. He has 6 Goals and 23 assists for 29 points or .27 PPG. On the power play he averages roughly 2:20 TOI/G. He has 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points. Murphy's allure to many is his offensive capabilities, but these numbers in 108 games do not reflect that in my eyes. The last game I noted that he lost his jock/cup on three occasions and had to be saved by his pairing partner. I read a few articles on Murphy that were very interesting. One writer suggested that Murphy had great numbers in the AHL where players are younger and more around his size 5"11 185 pounds and coming into the NHL his size issue is coming more into play. The stats also identified that the Canes were better on the power play without Murphy than with him. I've stated before as long as he is in our lineup I hope he plays well, just not my preference on D or the power play. I'm still hoping for a trade. :D

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Murphy's played 18 games with the Canes (first chart), Hanifin 43 (second chart).  Obviously some players drop out at the 43 game mark.

 

Here are the usage charts (sorry no legend).  The bubble size is average TOI/game, the bubble color indicates Corsi On (browns = negative Corsi On; blues positive Corsi On; the deeper the color the more negative or more positive Corsi ON becomes)

 

Murphy's sheltered, no doubt.  Hanifin is as well, and that's not changed over the course of the season.

 

JRD6LY.jpg

 

 

KYLF73.jpg

Edited by coastal_caniac

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After 28 games, with Pesce and Slavin included for comparison.  Both Pesce and Slavin are facing more quality competitors than Hanifin,

 

KiZuRH.jpg

Edited by coastal_caniac

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We debate plus minus periodically here. A couple of points from my point of view that have to be considered.

 

First, it is a very crude stat, since there are 11 other players on the ice, not the least of which are the goalies. Since the net effect on both sides (the plus and the minus) is 1/12, the stat is limited.

 

My take is this: if plus/minus is to be usefull in isolation (not watching the player play), then it is best used A: over long stretches of games. The old "n" value debate. B.the player relative to the team. I like to rank all players on a team by plus/minus, then look over multiple years. If the player in question is routinely in the top 5 guys on the team in plus/minus, that means something.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is more advanced stats. Is the player protected? Is he playing vs. top line players? Is he getting mostly offensive zone starts?

 

And finally for dmen, is he paired with a particularly weak partner?

 

When all of this is factored in, then to me, plus minus is a meaningful number. But the idea of a guy being "even" in a single loss meaning much? Not in isolation.

 

Example: Murphy turns over 3 blatantly bad pucks (eye test), but the goalie robs the eventual shooter one time, another the other dman gets back and breaks up the chance, and finally one goal happens, but Murphy happens to be on the ice on a line change, trailing the play, when Skinner sets up LIndholm and gets a plus one for that. Murphy ends up even.

 

I think that the stat is useless in a single game in isolation. Sure, if a guy stinks out loud and is -3 for the game it makes sense, but really because it is just confirming what the eye test already knew.

 

Murphy looked very shaky to me vs. Calgary. That said, it was his first NHL game in a while, and the entire team whiffed, so I need to see more to really assess him.

 

 

PP goals for and PK goals against aren't counted in the +- stat.  (short handed goals are counted both ways)

 

I agree with rem, the stat is useful but only with larger numbers and when taken in context.  E.g., earlier this year, even ignoring the too small "n", I wouldn't have thought it fair to compare, say, Pesce's +- vs Hanifin's as it seemed like Hanifin was getting much more "protected" ice time against opponents bottom lines. (that seems to have changed as the season progressed)

 

Thank you both, Lake & rem. I learned something today, at least. Apparently I'm a more casual hockey fan than I previously thought, as I wasn't aware that power play goals weren't counted in +/-.

 

I am pretty much unable to watch any Hurricanes games unless they're nationally televised - I live in Oklahoma and can't afford to pay for GameCenterLive/NHL.tv/whatever the name will be next week. I have been called on commenting on eye-testable player performance before, and I didn't keep my promise to shut up and go sit in the corner....

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That's some really interesting stuff coastal!

 

Since Hanifin is usually paired with Slavin I wonder if some of their difference in "protection" stems from earlier in the year when Hanifin was playing with Murphy? I've noticed that his ice time has gone way up since he's been paired with Slavin, as compared to earlier in the year, as well.

 

One question, what's the difference between the 3 graphs?

Edited by LakeLivin

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Thank you both, Lake & rem. I learned something today, at least. Apparently I'm a more casual hockey fan than I previously thought, as I wasn't aware that power play goals weren't counted in +/-.

 

I am pretty much unable to watch any Hurricanes games unless they're nationally televised - I live in Oklahoma and can't afford to pay for GameCenterLive/NHL.tv/whatever the name will be next week. I have been called on commenting on eye-testable player performance before, and I didn't keep my promise to shut up and go sit in the corner....

 

Check your private mail. :)

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That's some really interesting stuff coastal!

 

Since Hanifin is usually paired with Slavin I wonder if some of their difference in "protection" stems from earlier in the year when Hanifin was playing with Murphy? I've noticed that his ice time has gone way up since he's been paired with Slavin, as well.

 

One question, what's the difference between the 3 graphs?

 

An issue with presenting player usage charts is that every player hasn't played an equal amount of games.  Good question though, and I see where your going with the comments.  Unfortunately, the site I used doesn't allow for picking certain points in the season to produce the charts. 

 

1. From top to bottom, the first chart includes all players who have played in at least 18 games, regardless of when that occurred during the season.  I chose to put this up to give Murphy the benefit of the doubt and represent all the games he's played in. He's sheltered, but he's also not a liability when on the ice in terms of our puck possession, recognizing n=18.  To me, this just reinforces the fact the team doesn't likely have issues with his offense, but the two-way play is the driving force behind his progress, and why he's struggling to stick.

 

2.  The second (middle chart) includes all players who have played in at least 43 games, regardless of when that occurred during the season.  I chose to put this up to include all of Hanifin's games, and mainly to illustrate how he has been relatively sheltered over the course of the season.  As you noticed, Hanifin doesn't change because he's played in 18 and also 43 games. 

 

3.  The third (bottom chart) includes all players who have played in at least 28 games, regardless of when that occurred during the season.  I chose to put this up to include all of Pesce's and Slavin's games, and mainly to give some context and a comparison to Hanifin's usage over the same amount of games.

 

Also, Corsi ON = team shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots when player X is on the ice vs. the same statistics generated by the other team.  Obvioulsy, the Canes are a great possession team, as most players have "blue" colored dots - indicating a positive Cosi ON ratio.

 

I'm not a big fan of plus/minus, but I think plus/minus has it's uses (as does the eye test) in conjunction with more advanced stats.  Hey, they are out there, might as well use them, right?

Edited by coastal_caniac

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After 28 games, with Pesce and Slavin included for comparison.  Both Pesce and Slavin are facing more quality competitors than Hanifin,

 

KiZuRH.jpg

 

Interesting, coastal.

 

Question for you about this chart. Is this saying, in a sense, that Nordstrom/Nestrasil/J. Staal are being "thrown to the wolves" because they're starting in their own D-zone more often AND they're against stronger opposition? I'd guess that's true - since they're the second line, they're more likely to play in a stopper role than either the first or third line....

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Interesting, coastal.

 

Question for you about this chart. Is this saying, in a sense, that Nordstrom/Nestrasil/J. Staal are being "thrown to the wolves" because they're starting in their own D-zone more often AND they're against stronger opposition? I'd guess that's true - since they're the second line, they're more likely to play in a stopper role than either the first or third line....

 

Exactly!  Jordan's line is facing more minutes against tougher competition and have a much higher percentage of defensive zone starts.  Jordan is officially in the same role he was in Pittsburgh, and it's working.  That line is really driving our possession numbers.

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Yeah, and Jordan leads the team in plus minus at +4 despite by far the most dzone starts and highest competition. It really is pretty darned good. Nordstrom at even is still very solid considering.

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Another thing to consider when viewing the player usage charts - note the players who get regular PK time.  That obviously pumps up the level of competition.  For example, the Hanifin-Slavin pairing.

 

Also look at Liles and Pesce.  I think the majority talk here is that Pesce is more of a shutdown guy, but can bring some offense.   Who are the two defenseman closest to the cross-hairs of competition vs zone starts?   I'll eat crow again and recognize what Liles has brought and to the young d-core.

 

Sorry to anybody that thinks this stuff is voodo hockey analysis.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Another thing to consider when viewing the player usage charts - note the players who get regular PK time.  That obviously pumps up the level of competition.  For example, the Hanifin-Slavin pairing.

 

Also look at Liles and Pesce.  I think the majority talk here is that Pesce is more of a shutdown guy, but can bring some offense.   Who are the two defenseman closest to the cross-hairs of competition vs zone starts?   I'll eat crow again and recognize what Liles has brought and to the young d-core.

 

Sorry to anybody that thinks this stuff is voodo hockey analysis.

 

Seems like PK time would also nudge offensive zone starts to the left a bit as well as hurt corsi stats.  With PP time doing the opposite.  Unlike the +- stat, I'm assuming the charts include all ice time? 

 

Given that they hired Eric Tulsky full time the Canes obviously don't think it's voodoo analysis.  I'd love to know how much Bill Peters taps into Tulsky for day to day stuff as compared to RF using him for personnel-type decisions.  

Edited by LakeLivin

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Chuck  K  says we have to go 21-9 the rest of way to make playoffs.. that would be  96 points..

 

Just feels like a more typical 93 point year I think. if we finish this one off, we have one win on that.

 

So then we would need 37 points in 29 games:

 

17-9-3.

 

Somehow seems slightly more doable.

 

I just don't believe Boston, NJ, or Detroit are great teams. It is still odds against, but if the team keeps playing the way it has recently we have a shot. Just keep winning.

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