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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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Good point Lake, and I believe quickness getting back to the feet is the first indicator of keeper fatigue (or laziness). When Cam was going really badly last year, he'd take a knee - say, to better see behind the net - but then stay there when the play came to the front, only to get beat up high.

 

It's one thing to play deep in the crease if you're a big keeper, but the minute you take a knee that advantage is gone. I saw a troubling amount of that from Lack in Calgary, given that he'd just had a week off. (Or maybe because of it.)

 

Sure, when you consider it relative to an individual's baseline.  But as far as the baseline, I think Ward has a lot more fast twitch muscle fiber than Lack.    

Edited by LakeLivin

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Sure, when you consider it relative to an individual's baseline.  But as far as the baseline, I think Ward has a lot more fast twitch muscle fiber than Lack.    

Right. "Lumbering" is too strong a word, but you're right, Lack isn't as quick as Cam. My point was just that, even if he were, he's a lot less likely to stop that shot under the crossbar when he's still (or already) on his knees.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I agree Lack looks like he wears himself out out there. He has sloppy technique and flails around a lot. With that being said, he's still a very good NHL goalie and has shut teams out with his sloppy technique.

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Right. "Lumbering" is too strong a word, but you're right, Lack isn't as quick as Cam. My point was just that, even if he were, he's a lot less likely to stop that shot under the crossbar when he's still (or already) on his knees.

 

Ah, ok. I thought you had slightly misunderstood my original thought whereas you were adding on to it . . . 

Edited by LakeLivin

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While Lack is a decent above average netminder, he does need development. His puck control is at the core of his issue more than anything. His positioning is average. He uses his size to his advantage. But like a lot of your bigger goalies (your Mike Smiths, Jonathan Quicks), if you can get him moving side-to-side, you open him up more than others who are more athletic. He primarily blocks shots more than swallowing them up. Cam has an above average glove and is positionally sound. Irbe and Khudobin were the more athletic, due to their diminutive size.

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I guess you could make the case that the next two games could be the most important games this season. Win both your still in the playoff hunt. Lose both and the season could be toast. Split or get a point in each and your hanging around but barely.

 

If we win both there will be important games ahead but lose both and every game becomes a must win.

 

Is the season on the line, I think so.

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I'm thinking it's going to take at least 3 points from the next 2 games to keep RF from amping up trade plans. I'm guessing he's already been feeling out other GMs and this weekend will dictate if he moves to the next level.

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Elliot Friedman:

 

Hurricanes GM Ron Francis will wait until closer to the deadline to see where they sit in the standings before deciding on whether to sell off some assets.

 

 

Not a big surprise and fairly vague, (after all tomorrow is closer to the deadline) but still.

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Elliot Friedman:

 

Hurricanes GM Ron Francis will wait until closer to the deadline to see where they sit in the standings before deciding on whether to sell off some assets.

 

 

Not a big surprise and fairly vague, (after all tomorrow is closer to the deadline) but still.

In other news, the sky is blue, grass is green, and bacon is tasty.

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Elliot Friedman:

 

Hurricanes GM Ron Francis will wait until closer to the deadline to see where they sit in the standings before deciding on whether to sell off some assets.

 

 

Not a big surprise and fairly vague, (after all tomorrow is closer to the deadline) but still.

I mentioned this once before (to resounding crickets) but have to think the Cup celebration was purposely scheduled a couple weeks before the TD. If either or both of our remaining players are moved and it happened after...

 

AWKWARD...

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I mentioned this once before (to resounding crickets) but have to think the Cup celebration was purposely scheduled a couple weeks before the TD. If either or both of our remaining players are moved and it happened after...

 

AWKWARD...

 

 

That is an interesting thought.

 

Now that NYR took care of business, and frankly Detroit too, we have an opening. This weekend will be critical. If the team lays two eggs, then having celebrated the cup anniversary, and dropped out, Francis can really start working the phones.

 

If we sweep the weekend and get help we could be tied for the last playoff spot.

 

A split will continue purgatory.

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Faulk just got hurt in practice, took a hard tumble into the boards, then left the ice favoring a leg.  Hainsey is at RCI, but not practicing.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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.....Now that NYR took care of business, and frankly Detroit too, we have an opening. ....

IMO you have this wrong about Ottawa vs Detroit.  We're chasing any/all/one of the following group and should be pulling for their opponents.  If NONE of them slump the Canes are likely toast.

Boston, Detroit, Tampa, Isles, Pens

 

We are in the following outsider group and need to get hot to separate from the pack in hope that at least one of the above stumbles.

Canes, Flyers, Sens, Habs, Devils

 

The rest of the Conference is 3 at top out of reach and three at bottom who will likely stay there.  Very symmetric

 

Ottawa losing is less valuable than Detroit.

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You may be right Manwolf. That one is harder to call and the main thing is a clean 2 point game. I was looking at Detroit it the other division, now in second place as almost moving out of range, while a win by Ottawa would add a team between us and the WC cutline.

 

The main thing is the Pittsburgh loss.

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Actually, the sportsclubstats site is great for those scenarios where you are not sure who to root for... with its several million trials and the associated gain/loss for your playoffs chances it figures it out.  Sometimes it's too close to matter.

 

According to this, Detroit winning decreased our playoffs chances 0.1%.     :)

But the Pens loss gained us .5%.

 

Tonight the biggest gain is if Winnipeg beats Boston (0.7%) but we also gain 0.5% if the Islanders lose to LA, another 0.5% if Buffalo beats the Flyers, and 0.2% if Colorado beats the Sens.  

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

Edited by hag65

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Sportsclubstats gives us a 16.7% (1/6) chance of making the playoffs weighted, but 26.2% chance 50-50*. Seems like a big swing. Suggests we have a tougher than average schedule.

 

One thing I do assume w/ the weighted is that  they have to weight us based on our total schedule, not how hot we've been. Makes me think the truth might be in between around 20%.

 

Still, shows why Francis has to wait. Can we make that better? If we get that up to 60%? Might change the dynamic. Or if we fall back to 10%.

 

This weekend has the potential to really move that dial. I wonder what sportsclub stats will likely be at if we sweep the weekend? Of course it will depend on other games, but it has to move that dial a good bit if we do.

 

 

*50-50 flips a coin for each remaining game, weighted accounts for the better team and home team winning more often.

Edited by remkin

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This weekend has the potential to really move that dial. I wonder what sportsclub stats will likely be at if we sweep the weekend? Of course it will depend on other games, but it has to move that dial a good bit if we do.

 

 

*50-50 flips a coin for each remaining game, weighted accounts for the better team and home team winning more often.

 

At this point in the season, judging by recent games at this position, it will move the needle about +10%.  Lose both and it will be about -6%.

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Yeah good point Hag, only Colorado took care of business taking out Ottawa even with their shiny new expensive D man.

 

NYI, Boston, and Philly all winning.

 

 

If we sweep the weekend and Philly beats NJ, we WILL be tied for the last playoff spot and 3 points out of the last division spot. At least before games in hand, but there are not as many now.

 

If we don't? Not so good.

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Actually, the sportsclubstats site is great for those scenarios where you are not sure who to root for... with its several million trials and the associated gain/loss for your playoffs chances it figures it out.  Sometimes it's too close to matter.

 

According to this, Detroit winning decreased our playoffs chances 0.1%.     :)

But the Pens loss gained us .5%.

 

Tonight the biggest gain is if Winnipeg beats Boston (0.7%) but we also gain 0.5% if the Islanders lose to LA, another 0.5% if Buffalo beats the Flyers, and 0.2% if Colorado beats the Sens.  

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

Thanks hag, I haven't seen that site before,good stuff.

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Here is my open post to Ron Francis:

 

It is time to move on from Eric Staal. If the Canes lose a clean loss tonight, it is time for put up or shut up on Versteeg, (if he'll sign a reasonable deal please keep him, otherwise get picks). Again, with a clean loss tonight, please put "operation clean house" into effect.

 

But with Eric Staal, there is no need to wait. Unless he is nursing an undisclosed injury (in which case, well try to sign him for no more than $5m/year and limited to no NTC).

 

If Cam Ward will re-sign for $3 million/year or less with modified or no NTC, please re-sign him unless he can return a first round pick.

 

Eric Staal's game has unfortunately deteriorated over the past 2.5 years. He has become reliable for only about 45-50 points and 20 goals per year. In that sense he is likely worth around $4.5 million/year. But recently he has become impossible to watch. Because he can't be found. His play of the past several games is equal the production of a 4th line player, but he's not playing 4th line minutes.

 

If Eric is not hurt, then he must be having trouble with this whole contract thing. But the team that at year's end will have paid him over $71 million, needs him most right now. The team is on the bubble to make the playoffs and needs their captain and highest paid player to lead them forward. If that guy, is sulking over his next contract? It would seem to speak for itself.

 

The longer this is allowed to fester, the lower the return will be.

 

The odds on playoffs are also pretty clear. Sportsclubstats.com now puts our odds of making the playoffs at 13.4% (weighted). If we were to somehow defy the odds we will face a 1 vs 8 road match up, with maybe a 35% chance of a series victory. This would mean that our current odds of playoffs and at least one round advancement is about 4.7% or maybe 1 in 20.

 

If we lose tonight, our playoff chances drop to 9.1% (1 in 11), and our one round victory chances go to 3.2%.

 

But here's the irony. Does this team really even have those odds with a feckless Eric Staal on a .2 ppg pace? Further, we are one key injury away from dramatically worsened odds. And finally, we will not be buyers at the deadline, but some teams we are trying to edge out will be, thus further lowering our chances.

 

And here's one more irony. This team could still surprise with Eric moved on, (especially if we sign Ward and Versteeg).

 

And also, it certainly appears that Eric could use a change of scenery. A real shot at the playoffs. If he bounces back, and still wants to return? Well that would be up to you, but if ever it looked like a move that could benefit both sides, this would seem to be it. Is Eric better off sulking the year away here?

 

But mainly, as you know, the NHL point system is not designed to allow comebacks. It is designed to create the illusion of comebacks. Don't fall prey to that illusion. This team has done a remarkable job of almost digging out of the typically fatal hole it dug. Kudos. That bodes well for the future. But not this year. The real future of this team: your vision for a team that can honestly compete for the cup for years. It is time to put all efforts into that vision and let the chips fall this year.

 

The arrival of Pesce and Slavin like gifts from on high, combined with Faulk and the soon to be Norris type Dman Noah Hanifin, together with #7 pick Hayden Fleury and Roland McKeown, and even Ryan Murphy, have given you more young, talented pieces on defense than we have ever seen in these parts. With the emergence of Victor Rask and even Phil DeGuisseppe, and the potential in Sebastian Aho, and even Brock McGinn, and with the sudden radiant emergence of the other Staal brother, there are pieces here.

 

With all that defensive trade fodder and supporting cast of young players, we just need one or two elite level forwards and we could be where you want us. Especially since the LA pick is looking to be a lower first round pick, we need two things: we need at least one more first round pick, and we need our pick to be in the top 5-10.

 

I have to think with all those defensive prospects and accumulated picks, you could have one trade up your sleeve also (one Jonathan Drouin's price may be coming down, if you like him of course).

 

Despite a Stanley Cup revival meeting, and a team on the edge of the playoffs, last night's attendance was mostly Pen's fans. That is the result of a team that is now annually at least competing for the cup. That's what we want. That's what you have repeatedly stated is your plan. It is a great plan. The time to move it forward has come.

Edited by remkin

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