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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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Good post, Rem. Not sure I've seen Eric appearing to sulk, but the drop off in his production since the strike year is hard to ignore. Maybe he caught something from Semin playing on a line with him for so long.

I would still like to see us make a run at Drouin. Supposedly Tampa wants a top defensive prospect and it looks like we have several. Tampa may also decide to move Stamkos at the deadline, in which case an experienced 1C might also be attractive in any trade with them. I know you cannot equate Staal with Stamkos(though Stamkos's year has been subpar by his standards as well), but if Tampa can't sign him, trading him for futures and plugging in a veteran like Staal might look like at least a decent stopgap that may keep Tampa afloat into the playoffs this year.

Anyway, I agree it is time to move on. A win tonight leaves the playoffs as unlikely. A loss and they become next to impossible.

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But with Eric Staal, there is no need to wait. Unless he is nursing an undisclosed injury (in which case, well try to sign him for no more than $5m/year and limited to no NTC).

Posted this on the Pens GDT:

 

A thought crossed my mind Thursday or Friday: Could Eric be ready to retire? Last year his game had diminished; this year it has fallen off the proverbial cliff. I'm just not sure how any scout looking at guys to help put a team over the top for the playoffs goes to his GM and says, "Staal's our man," based on his play. And if that's true, what's the motivation for teams not in the mix to pick him up?

 

I don't know if it's in his head or his body, but something with Eric is clearly not right. He looks to me like a player who has just had enough of being here. Let's help him with that.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I'm not buying the retirement angle.

While I may make light of the length of Rem's post, it is spot on. It's time to move on no matter where the Canes currently are in the standings.

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Well I did have to make the case to Francis since he reads these boards before making any major decisions! :D

 

Last night Eric seemed to be really trying. But 15 total point tallies including assists last night. No Eric on the sheet.

 

Wake up this morning to a huge article about the Canes struggling to stay relevant and a picture of a mostly empty PNC section, this article right after the Canes thrashed the Islanders.

 

I used to think that we would want Eric as a 50 point player if he'd play wing and take a commensurate paycheck. I'm not even thinking that anymore. His current play really brings me back to the face of a lot of losing, fair or not. And that was when he was still mostly producing at a much higher level. It is just time for a change, probably past time.

 

Francis wants to see this team lose 3 or win 5, and instead we win one drop one, rinse, repeat. Just staying the 'have a chance' zone, but still looking up. We need a win streak to bump up to the cut line.

 

The problem might be fear that moving the face of the franchise in the midst of a "playoff run" might kill attendance even more. But I think we're down to the hardest core fans already.

 

Still most fans will look at the standings and see us 3 points out and not want their "star" player moved. A bit of a conundrum, but if the right deal comes along, we need bold leadership from the GM. Francis has that in him.

 

 

Edit: driving into the game two days ago, Maniscalco was asked if the Canes could move a guy like Eric and still make a run. His answer was basically: "absolutely", and suggested this may not be a bad idea.

Edited by remkin

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Well I did have to make the case to Francis since he reads these boards before making any major decisions! :D

 

Last night Eric seemed to be really trying. But 15 total point tallies including assists last night. No Eric on the sheet.

 

Wake up this morning to a huge article about the Canes struggling to stay relevant and a picture of a mostly empty PNC section, this article right after the Canes thrashed the Islanders.

 

I used to think that we would want Eric as a 50 point player if he'd play wing and take a commensurate paycheck. I'm not even thinking that anymore. His current play really brings me back to the face of a lot of losing, fair or not. And that was when he was still mostly producing at a much higher level. It is just time for a change, probably past time.

 

Francis wants to see this team lose 3 or win 5, and instead we win one drop one, rinse, repeat. Just staying the 'have a chance' zone, but still looking up. We need a win streak to bump up to the cut line.

 

The problem might be fear that moving the face of the franchise in the midst of a "playoff run" might kill attendance even more. But I think we're down to the hardest core fans already.

 

Still most fans will look at the standings and see us 3 points out and not want their "star" player moved. A bit of a conundrum, but if the right deal comes along, we need bold leadership from the GM. Francis has that in him.

 

 

Edit: driving into the game two days ago, Maniscalco was asked if the Canes could move a guy like Eric and still make a run. His answer was basically: "absolutely", and suggested this may not be a bad idea.

After spending the weekend at the RBC it is evident that the fan base has already spoken. If we cannot fill the arena during a cup celebration weekend it is clear that the fans do not believe in this team. I was embarrassed at the low attendance with the Champions in attendance. I thought I went back to 1997 in Greensboro. The concession stand lines were even empty.I'm not so sure that making the playoffs would guarantee a packed house. Yes,some fans are fickle but the majority of the fans need to see consistent winning before investing in this team again. Now that the Championship weekend is over it is time to move Eric now. There is no reason to wait. Use the remaining TD time wisely and get what we can for ES. He is not offering us anything talent wise right now and he certainly will not offer us anything at 4-5.5 mil either. I'd like him moved and I do not want him back at any price. It's time for a fresh face and to continue with the RF rebuild and youth movement. 

Edited by slapshot02

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After spending the weekend at the RBC it is evident that the fan base has already spoken. If we cannot fill the arena during a cup celebration weekend it is clear that the fans do not believe in this team. I was embarrassed at the low attendance with the Champions in attendance. I thought I went back to 1997 in Greensboro. The concession stand lines were even empty.I'm not so sure that making the playoffs would guarantee a packed house. Yes,some fans are fickle but the majority of the fans need to see consistent winning before investing in this team again. Now that the Championship weekend is over it is time to move Eric now. There is no reason to wait. Use the remaining TD time wisely and get what we can for ES. He is not offering us anything talent wise right now and he certainly will not offer us anything at 4-5.5 mil either. I'd like him moved and I do not want him back at any price. It's time for a fresh face and to continue with the RF rebuild and youth movement. 

 

I wonder if part of the recent decline in attendance (as compared to the past several years when we were even less competitive than now) might be due to the change in club policy about releasing cheap unsold tickets to the secondary markets.  I scan those on occasion and noticed that there aren't nearly as many as there used to be. Which makes sense as Waddell did announce a change in direction on that front.

 

There were very few cheap tickets for the last 2 games and combined with listed attendance figures in the mid 16k range I thought we must have had a nice crowd in the house.  Surprised to hear that wasn't the case.  

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I wonder if part of the recent decline in attendance (as compared to the past several years when we were even less competitive than now) might be due to the change in club policy about releasing cheap unsold tickets to the secondary markets.  I scan those on occasion and noticed that there aren't nearly as many as there used to be. Which makes sense as Waddell did announce a change in direction on that front.

 

There were very few cheap tickets for the last 2 games and combined with listed attendance figures in the mid 16k range I thought we must have had a nice crowd in the house.  Surprised to hear that wasn't the case.  

I don't think Waddell has helped the situation at all. Not sure where the 16K number comes from, maybe the population of residents within 10 square miles of the arena. Low community interest, tkt prices,concession prices,loosing team all come into play for the low attendance.

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That would seem to indicate a problem with pricing to me.

 

 

 

Wadull has set pricing so it in the same level as top level markets.  The problems is the Triangle is not one of those markets..

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Wadull has set pricing so it in the same level as top level markets.  The problems is the Triangle is not one of those markets..

 

Especially when the franchise is down. 

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So the consensus seems to be that we might as well go ahead and trade E at this point.  But there's still the issue of Versteeg, Ward and Liles, and maybe even others (I saw an article that said one of the Western teams might benefit from acquiring M. Jordan for cheap; maybe it was LA?)  Given the way the team has played the past 2 games and the fact that we're still only 3 points out on paper, the boys didn't make RFs life any easier this weekend.   

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern2.htmlnow gives us a 28% chance of making the playoffs using their 50/50 model, up a full 5% points after the win last night. It's only 12% using the weighted model, but I'd argue that 50/50 is a more accurate fit for the Canes since the weighted model factors in the entire seasons performance and clearly we're a different team after December.  Of course, the analysis also factors in other teams games, and the weighted model is probably more accurate in general.  But since each of our games impacts the Canes chances to a greater degree than our competitions games, I'd guess that the 50/50 model better reflects our chances than the weighted one.

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I'm not buying the retirement angle.

While I may make light of the length of Rem's post, it is spot on. It's time to move on no matter where the Canes currently are in the standings.

Absolutely. Even if we were solidly in a playoff spot, Eric has had absolutely nothing to do with it. I just want something done. Yesterday.

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After spending the weekend at the RBC it is evident that the fan base has already spoken. If we cannot fill the arena during a cup celebration weekend it is clear that the fans do not believe in this team. I was embarrassed at the low attendance with the Champions in attendance. I thought I went back to 1997 in Greensboro. The concession stand lines were even empty.I'm not so sure that making the playoffs would guarantee a packed house. Yes,some fans are fickle but the majority of the fans need to see consistent winning before investing in this team again. Now that the Championship weekend is over it is time to move Eric now. There is no reason to wait. Use the remaining TD time wisely and get what we can for ES. He is not offering us anything talent wise right now and he certainly will not offer us anything at 4-5.5 mil either. I'd like him moved and I do not want him back at any price. It's time for a fresh face and to continue with the RF rebuild and youth movement.

While I understand some of this angst. You must have attended a different game than I. Both the vendors line on the top level and more telling the flip side bathrooms were long. We are NOT on the way down but the way out of The JR doldrums.

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So the consensus seems to be that we might as well go ahead and trade E at this point.  But there's still the issue of Versteeg, Ward and Liles, and maybe even others (I saw an article that said one of the Western teams might benefit from acquiring M. Jordan for cheap; maybe it was LA?)  Given the way the team has played the past 2 games and the fact that we're still only 3 points out on paper, the boys didn't make RFs life any easier this weekend.   

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern2.htmlnow gives us a 28% chance of making the playoffs using their 50/50 model, up a full 5% points after the win last night. It's only 12% using the weighted model, but I'd argue that 50/50 is a more accurate fit for the Canes since the weighted model factors in the entire seasons performance and clearly we're a different team after December.  Of course, the analysis also factors in other teams games, and the weighted model is probably more accurate in general.  But since each of our games impacts the Canes chances to a greater degree than our competitions games, I'd guess that the 50/50 model better reflects our chances than the weighted one.

 

I think the Eric situation is the most critical. He is the guy that at least in theory will bring back at least first rounder, and that is set against his increasingly ineffective play for us. (I am increasingly wondering if removing the distraction might actually buoy the team).  It is increasingly obvious that this franchise will not turn the page until he is at least released into the wild. I am thinking he doesn't return, but the only way he could work on this team would be to go away first, then return on even terms.

 

On Versteeg, I really hope we can sign him, and with our soon to be Eric and Cam cap space we could even afford not to insist on a discount, but my gut tells me that this is not a guy who will forgo UFA to stay in a small market, untested team. Still, he can be a deadline move either way. I just think that Francis has to stay with the model that no one walks without getting a pick for them. Yes, JML too.

 

Cam is harder. If he is here on a reasonable deal with no NTC, he could always be traded at some point, possibly for more return than he might bring as a rental. Overall he is playing well. If he would not bring a first rounder, I'd try to sign him.

 

It is harder this year since we are trying to get in, but must be held to still, I think.

 

Something is indeed wrong with the sportclubstats weighted model. The spread cannot be that big. I would tend to also think that the unweighted is closer to the truth, which is probably in between, but closer to unweighted. I'd go with maybe 22%, but that is just a guess.  Thing is, that the odds of pervailing in a 1 v. 8 road match up in the playoffs, is well less than 50%. Even if we say 40%, that would mean that the odds of making the playoffs and getting past one round is around 9%.

 

If Eric got us a first rounder. Versteeg and Ward second rounders, and JML a third rounder? Maybe Jordan a 4th rounder? I don't know I'm spitballin' here, but that would leave Francis with:

 

3 First Round picks (E, and LA)

3 Second Round picks (Ward/Versteeg)

2 Third Round picks (Winnipeg Tlusty)

2 4th round picks

 

The way we've been drafting lately, and the bigger scouting staff and a very deep draft? That could be a haul. Further, maybe package two of the seconds and one of the firsts to move up and grab a more elite forward.

 

And all of that and Eric or Cam or even Versteeg could still come back in the off-season if we want them.

Edited by remkin

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rem, I stayed with you on your "island" in years past, and have even flirted with it since then, but I must say that your optimism concerning those projected trades exceeds even my imagination. I simply cannot imagine even the most Canadiancentric(even if that is a word) GM, seeing how Eric has been playing since, uh forever, would give up that.

Versteeg, maybe, but am hopeful that becomes unnecessary. Same for JML.

And how serious was Wardo's injury? That might take him off the plate.

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. . .

If Eric got us a first rounder. Versteeg and Ward second rounders, and JML a third rounder? Maybe Jordan a 4th rounder?

. . .

 

The bigger question imo is timing. When can RF pull the trigger on the others? The team is still playing hard and mostly surprisingly well; I don't think RF can "pull the plug" just yet. 

 

Btw, not sure about the others, but I'd be surprised if Jordan brought back a 4th rounder.  If another team is interested I'm thinking their GM offers more of a longshot than even a 4th rounder.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Kjun, I don't really know on Staal to be honest. I've heard it bandied about that he would still be sought after for a playoff run. Last year, when he was still really a 50 point guy, it was rumored that he would bring a first rounder and two other players. Then he wasn't a rental, but then his contract was much more of a big deal. Supposedly there are still GM's that would look at a big center like Staal as a desirable thing. I don't know. I'm still assuming he would bring a first.

 

Ward? Yes, the injury has to be relatively minor. The price on goalies has been lower. On the one hand Ward's season save % is only .909. But GM's have people tracking these things. He has been well above that since December 5. If the right team needs a goalie bad enough, not sure a second rounder is really that high of a price.

 

Versteeg is playoff proven, cup winning reliable offense to the tune of .58 ppg about a 50 points pace. He is currently tied for the #95 forward with the likes of Zach Parise, Jordan Eberles, Jeff Skinner, and Jerome Iginla. This makes him just below a legit first line forward. I would think a second rounder would be right.

 

Lake, Jordan. Not sure really, but a 4th rounder has about a 4% chance of playing 100 NHL games, so not really a huge loss. To be honest, I really don't know, but maybe a 5th rounder. Lake Jordan? Isn't that near Cary?

 

Also, I agree, it is going to be hard for Francis to pull the rug out of this team unless it puts a few losses together. This is a delemma. It is kind of like the tank debate. Hard to even discuss. For some reason, my gut tells me Francis could move Eric sooner than the rest, but he may have to wait. I guess the main thing is if the right deal were on the table, it would be best to take it now.

 

I really wonder what JML would bring. I'm thinking maybe third rounder. That's what Tlusty brought. I don't know.

 

All of these are speculation admittedly, and maybe I'm too high on my estimates, but I don't think I'm way off.

Edited by remkin

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While I understand some of this angst. You must have attended a different game than I. Both the vendors line on the top level and more telling the flip side bathrooms were long. We are NOT on the way down but the way out of The JR doldrums.

 

Agree.  I didn't really want to fight with slapshot anymore after he gave me the "meh" treatment.

 

Last night was optimistic regarding fan attendance.  Lines for food were to the wall.

 

Look, it isn't spring '06 or anything, but I'll take any nugget of optimism right now.

Edited by wxray1

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Hit "REFRESH" when you visit sportsclubstats.com.  That 12% number is old news.  After the game last night it was up to 19% weighted.  Then Jersey won and that knocked it down 1%.  But 12% is faulty browser information.

 

50/50 was almost 30%.  That's "makeable" territory.

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Hate to continue my role as naysayer, but despite 3 of a possible 4 points this weekend, the Hurricanes are 3 and 4 points behind the 3 teams in front of them, with every one of those teams once again holding 2 games in hand on the Hurricanes.  The cave,  Remember your failure at the cave.

 

Playoffs aren't happening for the Hurricanes this season.  Prepare for the future.

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