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2015/16 In-Season Talk

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I can def see that POV, except that Drouin, regardless of his potential, is now a project--and Tampa wants D. Packaging E along for their run and the help Murph might provide their PP, which stands at 19, might be enough. 

 

E. Staal to the Bolts is a non starter because TB is up against the cap ceiling.  It wouldn't work even if we retained as much salary as allowed by the NHL.  We'd have to take back a big contract in return.

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On the team: as MM put it on the aftermath, at least a year ahead of schedule. This is exciting now.

 

It does, however, create a crunch w/ moving players that would not have likely been a problem if we were not ahead of schedule. We've talked it to death, but Eric Staal is at best only a possession player, and watching him last night, he controlled the puck for a while, then turned it over a lot. If Eric in limbo is weighing on him, it doesn't make that situation any easier....

On the very same Aftermath (may have been during BP's Q&A) BP's opinion was asked of whether the team was playing "fast enough" now.  The reply was "Not even close" so your description of E Staal above should speak volumes about what to expect. 

 

I doubt Eric is in the near or long term plans going forward, at least for BP"s preferred game.

 

ps: I actually made a game where they won (amazing).  Thinking it may not be me after all, so my weekend is now set for Fri/Sun.

Edited by Manwolf

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I spoke with my ticket rep last night at the game about the future of the franchise.

The biggest statement I took away from our conversation is that regardless of what happens this season, Francis is looking long term and is not looking to make any patchwork moves to improve the team now. Its about building an organization from the ground up.

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I spoke with my ticket rep last night at the game about the future of the franchise.

The biggest statement I took away from our conversation is that regardless of what happens this season, Francis is looking long term and is not looking to make any patchwork moves to improve the team now. Its about building an organization from the ground up.

 

And Francis has thusfar stuck with that both in his comments and his moves. I'm on board with the no detours in that no current player on the soon to be UFA list should be kept if we can get return.

 

But that will be trickier with the team in contention. It will be really interesting to see what Francis does if we keep winning over the next 6 games and are actually sitting in a playoff spot.

 

The problem on the old buyer vs. seller argument is that we sit hugely unbalanced in the "seller" position with all those pending UFA's.

 

Nothing is as tricky as Eric. Frankly, if Eric were lighting it up, it would at least be easier to swallow letting him go with no return. At least he gave his all at the end, we could say.

 

I still think his long game with E, was that we were out of the playoffs, and basically said, 'It's been a good run, but at this point, you're going to fetch so much more on the UFA market than I can offer you. Can I try to get you a good run on a contender? Maybe after the dust settles talk again off season."

 

But then the team just kept winning. Now he still probably wants to move him, but has to finesse it since playoffs are still in the picture, ironically, despite Eric not because of him, and Eric has that big fat NTC. Not sure how exactly this plays out.

 

One ironic way to have the cake and eat it too would be a double move. Pick up Drouin, and move our UFA's at the same time. Or a similar move if we don't want to get hung up on Drouin.

Edited by remkin

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On the very same Aftermath (may have been during BP's Q&A) BP's opinion was asked of whether the team was playing "fast enough" now.  The reply was "Not even close" so your description of E Staal above should speak volumes about what to expect. 

 

I doubt Eric is in the near or long term plans going forward, at least for BP"s preferred game.

 

 

Good point. I heard that too. It was the pace question. Interesting that my mind didn't go to Eric, but more to the Terry's of the team. But you could be right. It gave me a bit of a smile too though because Peters seemed to be saying in essense, "you like what you're seeing? Well we haven't even begin yet. Just wait until it all comes together."

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According to media reports It looks like Altshuller will rejoin Charlotte after some ice time with the Everblades in Norfolk this weekend.

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E. Staal to the Bolts is a non starter because TB is up against the cap ceiling.  It wouldn't work even if we retained as much salary as allowed by the NHL.  We'd have to take back a big contract in return.

I'm seeing here that TBL has $2.5 million of cap space, and that's factoring Drouin's nearly $900k into their payroll, which means they'd have almost 3.5 million if they move him, which should allow them to take on the remainder of E's contract (about $2 million). Spottrac is showing $1.3 million of space before Drouin, so even there, the numbers seem also to work if we retain a bit on Eric, unless I'm missing something?

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I'm seeing here that TBL has $2.5 million of cap space, and that's factoring Drouin's nearly $900k into their payroll, which means they'd have almost 3.5 million if they move him, which should allow them to take on the remainder of E's contract (about $2 million). Spottrac is showing $1.3 million of space before Drouin, so even there, the numbers seem also to work if we retain a bit on Eric, unless I'm missing something?

 

I used this site (which is the one the TSN reporter also used): http://www.generalfanager.com/teams

 

Here's what they say about their figure for Cap Space @ Deadline Day:

"Cap space on deadline day is an estimate of the annual cap hit a team can add on the day of the NHL trade deadline. It calculates the remaining number of days in the NHL season as of this date and uses this in conjunction with a team's projected cap space and available LTIR to determine the projected total annual cap hit that can be added on trade deadline day."

 

Generalfanager projects TB as having $1.45m in total annual cap hit available at the trade deadline.  I dunno why the two sites have different amounts.  If only CapGeek was still active . . .

 

edit: but regardless of TBs cap situation, apparently they still view Drouin as a pretty valuable commodity. And I seem to recall them mentioning a return that was young and contract friendly. I can't see them dumping Drouin for a 5 week rental who they'd likely be in no position to even pursue re-signing given the Stamkos situation. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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I still come back to the traded assets. Like SD just don't think it's an even trade.

 

Eric for Tampa's Draft pick would be a good deal, except for the in conference, if we end up playing each other in the playoffs thing.

 

But the idea that Murphy would be enough to get Drouin? Can't see it. Maybe Murphy plus LA's pick? But that assumes that they have an interest in Murphy. Murphy plus McKeown? Still probably not.

 

Drouin was a #3 pick, with decent NHL production on a team loaded up front. He is a bit of a question, but his upside is very big. The plan was a short AHL stint then back up. Murphy has a lot of scouting question marks, and cannot break our line up ahead of M Jordan even with guys injured. I know that Drouin is not proven, but Murphy is about two levels lower. Murphy is, IMHO very small bait.

Edited by remkin

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Doesn't he still bring a 8.25 mil cap hit regardless of him being on the final 2 mil owed in his deal?

 

I'm pretty sure much of it would have been accrued to the Canes and the acquiring team would only be responsible for the portion related to the rest of the season. But where it gets murky for me is what sites mean when they report "available cap space".  

 

Available cap space is a fluid thing, it changes with time because of how it's calculated at any point (which I believe is accrued daily cap space used).  E.g., even though the Canes started out the season around $8m under the cap limit, GenFan has us as being able to add up to $29m in total annual salary today because our cap surplus has been accumulating all year.  With TB it gets even more complex because they're actually over the cap limit by a couple million but they do have LTIR.  And LTIR rules as pertains to cap space? :dizzy:  

Edited by LakeLivin

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edit: but regardless of TBs cap situation, apparently they still view Drouin as a pretty valuable commodity. And I seem to recall them mentioning a return that was young and contract friendly. I can't see them dumping Drouin for a 5 week rental who they'd likely be in no position to even pursue re-signing given the Stamkos situation. 

 

On a different train of thought: With the "C" word always in the back of my mind in regards to Skinner what would others think about Drouin + 1st for Skinny? I love Skinner as much as the next person, I really do but, he has proven to be streaky at times and like I said the "C" word is my true concern.

 

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I still come back to the traded assets. Like SD just don't think it's an even trade.

 

Eric for Tampa's Draft pick would be a good deal, except for the in conference, if we end up playing each other in the playoffs thing.

 

But the idea that Murphy would be enough to get Drouin? Can't see it. Maybe Murphy plus LA's pick? But that assumes that they have an interest in Murphy. Murphy plus McKeown? Still probably not.

 

Drouin was a #3 pick, with decent NHL production on a team loaded up front. The plan was a short AHL stint then back up. Murphy has a lot of scouting question marks, and cannot break our line up ahead of M Jordan even with guys injured. I know that Drouin is not proven, but Murphy is about two levels lower. Murphy is, IMHO very small bait.

 

Add in that there's a good chance that E would likely only be a 5 week rental + playoffs for TB. Granted that E will take a very big cut from his current salary in his next contract.  But teams still will be bidding, and TB needs to pay Stamkos next year.  I can't see them re-signing E as a UFA.

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On a different train of thought: With the "C" word always in the back of my mind in regards to Skinner what would others think about Drouin + 1st for Skinny? I love Skinner as much as the next person, I really do but, he has proven to be streaky at times and like I said the "C" word is my true concern.

 

 

Wow, there's so many parts to that I just don't know.  Yeah, there's the "C" issue.  But a lot of players have had successful careers after early concussion issues (e.g., Sidney Crosby).  "C" word aside, you've got a 23yo Calder Trophy winner who's already proven as a scorer, is clearly buying into BPs system of defensive responsibility, and who appears to be a great fit with the rest of our young players.  Vs. a kid with big potential but who's still unproven. Plus he brings the newly added questions about character. Add in whatever you project from TBs prolly mid first round pick this year and do some ciphering.  

 

My guess is that the only way you do that is if you want to move Skinner because of the concussion fears.  I'll leave that kind of call up to RF. :)

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On a different train of thought: With the "C" word always in the back of my mind in regards to Skinner what would others think about Drouin + 1st for Skinny? I love Skinner as much as the next person, I really do but, he has proven to be streaky at times and like I said the "C" word is my true concern.

 

 

I put that out there and was shot down a bit. I think I might consider that move. Tampa may miss the playoffs, making that an upper mid round pick, and Drouin. Few want to trade Skinner now because he is playing better lately. And when Skinner is on his game he is a singular talent, and a 30 goal scorer. But he is extremely streaky, and the health issue is a concern. Back when he was starting this season poorly we couldn't have given him away.

 

My guess is most would not do that deal, but I think it is a reasonable thought, and worth at least kicking around.

 

Really depends on what Francis and the braintrust think about Drouin. He might fit the system better than Skinner too. Plus that extra pick could turn into a key piece up front.

Edited by remkin

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edit: but regardless of TBs cap situation, apparently they still view Drouin as a pretty valuable commodity. And I seem to recall them mentioning a return that was young and contract friendly. I can't see them dumping Drouin for a 5 week rental who they'd likely be in no position to even pursue re-signing given the Stamkos situation. 

That's why I proposed Murphy too, who could strengthen their 19-rated PP. Along with Eric and them giving us a pick, that's potentially a pretty good deal for both clubs.

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I still come back to the traded assets. Like SD just don't think it's an even trade.

 

Eric for Tampa's Draft pick would be a good deal, except for the in conference, if we end up playing each other in the playoffs thing.

 

But the idea that Murphy would be enough to get Drouin? Can't see it. Maybe Murphy plus LA's pick? But that assumes that they have an interest in Murphy. Murphy plus McKeown? Still probably not.

 

Drouin was a #3 pick, with decent NHL production on a team loaded up front. He is a bit of a question, but his upside is very big. The plan was a short AHL stint then back up. Murphy has a lot of scouting question marks, and cannot break our line up ahead of M Jordan even with guys injured. I know that Drouin is not proven, but Murphy is about two levels lower. Murphy is, IMHO very small bait.

Wow, I guess I've not made it clear, even though I typed it out :) so here:

 

Eric and Murphy for Drouin and a pick.

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Wow, I guess I've not made it clear, even though I typed it out :) so here:

 

Eric and Murphy for Drouin and a pick.

 

Again, IMHO, that deal does not provide enough to Tampa.

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That's why I proposed Murphy too, who could strengthen their 19-rated PP. Along with Eric and them giving us a pick, that's potentially a pretty good deal for both clubs.

 

Sorry top, it just doesn't add up to me on a number of fronts. 

  • Why would TB expect Murphy to strengthen their 19th ranked PP when he can't even crack the lineup to help our 26th ranked PP? And that's a lineup that includes 2 rookies and M. Jordan. 
  • I still see E as a short term rental (5-week + playoff) for TB.  Like us, they're a very young team. Why would they give up young assets for that? We're adamantly opposed to that strategy.
  • I still don't think E to TB would work from a cap space perspective.  The more I think about it the more I think the discrepancy in TBs estimated cap space is probably due to how LTIR is factored into it.  TB is actually over the cap limit before you factor in LTIR.  I suspect the way the NHL calculates accrued cap space with regard to LTIR isn't as straight forward as some of the Cap sites do their calculations.    

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I'm pretty sure much of it would have been accrued to the Canes and the acquiring team would only be responsible for the portion related to the rest of the season. But where it gets murky for me is what sites mean when they report "available cap space".  

 

Available cap space is a fluid thing, it changes with time because of how it's calculated at any point (which I believe is accrued daily cap space used).  E.g., even though the Canes started out the season around $8m under the cap limit, GenFan has us as being able to add up to $29m in total annual salary today because our cap surplus has been accumulating all year.  With TB it gets even more complex because they're actually over the cap limit by a couple million but they do have LTIR.  And LTIR rules as pertains to cap space? :dizzy:  

That is correct, Eric's cap hit at the deadline is about $2 million; after a trade, the hit is pro-rated.

 

I'm fine with you and Rem and anybody else not liking the deal, just wanted to be sure we were all clear about it. (My shortest post of all time clarifying it was directed at Rem, not you Lake.)

 

And I like this a bunch...

 

Why not offer Murphy and Liles for Drouin? Gives Tampa a D man they can utilize right now and can bring Murphy along at their pace.

 

...although I can't see it happening until the dust settles on Faulk's status, which, given that he is already slated to sit out the weekend, may or may not happen by the TD.

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Why not offer Murphy and Liles for Drouin? Gives Tampa a D man they can utilize right now and can bring Murphy along at their pace.

 

You've got both of them rated higher than me, and I'm a Liles fan. :)

 

We drafted Murphy in the 1st round but I don't see him as a true 1st rounder at this point.  I'm not saying he can't make it, but I'd put his odds on a par with, what, maybe someone drafted in the 3rd round?  He's still a project imo, and I think TB is looking for more than a project. 

 

Liles : up until very recently I think the guy has been very underrated here as far being able to effectively hold down a 2nd paring spot and move the puck. But let's face it, his offense isn't anywhere near what it used to be and the guy is 35 yo, 5'11", 185lbs.  He's apparently turned out to be a very good mentor to our yutes,  But given that I don't see Murphy immediately slotting into TBs lineup, that really doesn't add value to TB right now. 

 

Sorry ss, while I'd love to do that deal to me it doesn't seem realistic from TBs point of view. 

 

 

 

Edit: I'm guessing Liles value at this point is around a 3rd round pick, maybe a bit more (3rd + a higher pick? 2nd if we get lucky?). So in essence the value we're offering for Drouin in your deal is:  a 2nd or 3rd round pick (Liles) plus effectively a third round prospect (what I value Murphy as at this point). Still doesn't come close from TBs perspective, imo.

Edited by LakeLivin

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From what I read Yzerman's wants and expectations differ from team to team who have come calling. It's not like he is locked in on Defense or Offense. His expectations are high and he wants quality assets for Drouin. One day he wants youth, other days he wants contract friendly assets and other days he wants both. A tough cookie to negotiate with but I think 5 card stud Ronnie could make it happen if he thought it was the right move.

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Sorry ss, while I'd love to do that deal to me it doesn't seem realistic from TBs point of view. 

I'm just spitting in the wind and yes Stevie probably wouldn't do that deal. I guess the real issue I have is determining what Drouins value is at this point. He has a lot of skill and potential although unproven at the NHL level. Who knows what is in SY's mind? Is the kid a psyco whowill have continual issues or is he going to be a high producing NHL scorer. I'm surprised a deal has not been made up to this point which I would think is lowering his value.

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