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LakeLivin

Should The Canes Trade A Young Defenseman?

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I understand where people are coming from. But I think it will take luck in one form or another to pick up a franchise forward through the draft. Either by "winning" a top 3 or so overall draft spot or via a lower pick who greatly outperforms projections (hey, Datsyuk was drafted 171st. Let's just do that! :P). 

 

Hey, I'm mostly being provocative here. I know in actuality the odds of any team trading an elite young prospect is practically nil. The reason I brought up the concept in the first place is because of the disparity I perceive between our O and D yutes.  I'd rate our prospects (including Hanifin & Pesce) somewhere along these lines:

 

                    Talent          Depth

Defense        9.5               9.5       (due mostly to the surprising promise that Pesce and Slavin have shown so far)

Forwards        5                5.5

 

I'm sure GMRFs focus will be on forwards going forward. But even with an abundance of draft picks I fear that it's going to take a long time and a little luck to get where we need to be.     

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I have no clear idea if we would ever want to go there, but Edmonton is close to making a "since we stink" trade. They have a lot of forwards. Eberle is struggling, but has been a consistent .8 ppg player over three seasons, and RNH seems to be odd man out at center and has been a .72 ppg guy.

 

RNH is still young, but very slight and had trouble putting on weight, but if we trade E....maybe we need a center?

 

Would anyone trade Fleury straight up for either one of those guys if Edmonton would do it?

Edited by remkin

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Murphy has to go, he will not hit, will not go where he might get hit, if he has the puck and thinks he will get hit,, he turns it over, And he never hits anyone!  HE HAS TO GO!

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Would anyone trade Fleury straight up for either one of those guys if Edmonton would do it?

 

No!  You all are underestimating the importance of the blue line.  Slavin and Pesce are still unproven over the long haul. 

 

 

More proven than Fleury, though.  I'm not underestimating the importance of the blue line, but at the same time i'd prefer a balance over feast-or-famine.

 

 You know what?  I might.  Rather trade Hainsey or Liles - hell, i'd rather give them Hainsey and Liles - but with the depth the Hurricanes have on defensive prospects, i could be coerced.  Look at it this way, RNH's point total so far this year would make him the highest-scoring forward on our roster.  Last year he would have been our leading scorer.  The year before, our second-leading behind EStaal.  We lose Staal, we need a top-line center.  Eberle, meanwhile, is a right wing - and we lose Versteeg, we need RW just as desperately.  And his totals?  Yes struggling this year, but the past 2 seasons, even better than RNH.  In fact he would have been our leading scorer last year and the year before

 

Mind you i don't see Edmonton doing it, but i'd have to consider it pretty strongly.

 

Here you go - EStaal, Hainsey, Liles, and Fleury for RNH + Eberle.  Never happen, but a 1st-line of Skinner/RNH/Eberle and a 2nd of Lindholm/Rask/Nesty-or-McGinn?  Hi...

Edited by realmdrakkar

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I have no clear idea if we would ever want to go there, but Edmonton is close to making a "since we stink" trade. They have a lot of forwards. Eberle is struggling, but has been a consistent .8 ppg player over three seasons, and RNH seems to be odd man out at center and has been a .72 ppg guy.

 

RNH is still young, but very slight and had trouble putting on weight, but if we trade E....maybe we need a center?

 

Would anyone trade Fleury straight up for either one of those guys if Edmonton would do it?

 

I'm not as interesed in Eberle (he's even smaller than RNH and he's coming off a shoulder injury) as RNH or Draisaitl. 

 

But think about it: 

RNH is a #1 overall pick and has proven that he can excel at the NHL level. 

Draisaitl is #3 overall, big, and is off to a 1.2ppg start this year.

Fleury is #7 and has only played juniors to this point (ok, 1 AHL game).      

 

So yeah, I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. But I don't see how Edmonton even considers it. If you look at it on paper, and are really objective, I think you'd need to make it Hanifin (#5 overall) rather than Fleury if you're going to consider an even up swap.  And that would be tough to pull the trigger on.

 

No!  You all are underestimating the importance of the blue line.  Slavin and Pesce are still unproven over the long haul. 

 

True.  But I believe that a small market organization like the Canes needs to be proactive rather than reactive. And "reactive" is how I'd describe refusing to make any decisions until you see how each each scenario plays out. I think you've got to consider the probabilities and act accordingly.

 

Sure, there's risk involved.  But I think you've also got to consider the cost of lost opportunity.  And I'd say that both the Canes and the Oil are currently in a rare position of being heavily unbalanced when it comes to the breakdown of young offensive and defensive talent.   Does that make for an opportunity we might regret later if we pass it up?  I go back to what I said about Fleury above. Sure he's got potential, but that's all it is at this point.  There's no guarantee that he'll end up as the top pair NHL d-man that we all hope. And there's no guarantee that our first round picks this year will ever make it to the level that RNH has already achieved.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think even talking about trading Fleury is insane.  A good blue line can take a team to the playoffs year in and year out.  See Nashvile with Weber and Suter.  You're practically throwing away the teams future for a maybe now fix.

Edited by bluedevil58

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I think even talking about trading Fleury is insane.  A good blue line can take a team to the playoffs year in and year out.  See Nashvile with Weber and Suter.  You're practically throwing away the teams future for a maybe now fix.

 

 

Absolutely, a good blue line can do that.  But if one (damned good, admittedly) prospect who hasn't played a single NHL (edit - or even a single AHL) game is the difference between Faulk, Hanifin, Pesce, Slavin, Murphy, Carrick, Ganly, McKeown, Biega, Rissanen, Chelios, Wesley, and Lowe being a good blue line and not being a good blue line, Francis better start looking for the next defenseman to pick with his first pick.  Truly, i think Francis can afford to barter one or two of them if it helps boost the forward future, which isn't looking quite so bright these days...

Edited by realmdrakkar

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I think even talking about trading Fleury is insane.  A good blue line can take a team to the playoffs year in and year out.  See Nashvile with Weber and Suter.  You're practically throwing away the teams future for a maybe now fix.

 

I think you just fell into the trap I pointed out in the OP, namely valuing your guy at his ceiling but the other teams guy as a prospect. You're assuming Fleury is going to be another Weber or Suter but it's entirely possible that he actually maxes out as just a solid 2nd pair defenseman.  But you're not allowing that, say, Draisaitl might turn out to be another Joe Thornton. 

 

And I definitely wouldn't recommend trading for the present (there is no "present" imo). I'm targeting 2 years out and when the players we've been mentioning probably still won't have hit their prime yet and could become the foundation of our offense for a long, long, time.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Absolutely, a good blue line can do that.  But if one (damned good, admittedly) prospect who hasn't played a single NHL (edit - or even a single AHL) game is the difference between Faulk, Hanifin, Pesce, Slavin, Murphy, Carrick, Ganly, McKeown, Biega, Rissanen, Chelios, Wesley, and Lowe being a good blue line and not being a good blue line, Francis better start looking for the next defenseman to pick with his first pick.  Truly, i think Francis can afford to barter one or two of them if it helps boost the forward future, which isn't looking quite so bright these days...

 

  :goodpost:   This too, well said. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think that while Fleury may very well end up a top pairing DMan, the fact that he isn't already in the lineup 2 years after being drafted 7th overall makes a case it isn't a slam dunk.

 

Therefore trading him for a known proven quantity of virtual equal value isn't a bad idea.  It's a classic risk management approach.

 

I would say that while I obviously don't agree that it would be insane to trade him, bd is right that a great defense is undervalued, especially in the Eastern Conference.  So it has to be a great trade to justify it.

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I think that while Fleury may very well end up a top pairing DMan, the fact that he isn't already in the lineup 2 years after being drafted 7th overall makes a case it isn't a slam dunk.

 

Therefore trading him for a known proven quantity of virtual equal value isn't a bad idea.  It's a classic risk management approach.

 

I would say that while I obviously don't agree that it would be insane to trade him, bd is right that a great defense is undervalued, especially in the Eastern Conference.  So it has to be a great trade to justify it.

 

 

Defense men take longer to develop.  Fleury can't even play in the AHL yet..  What kind of logic is this?  You can't base your opinion on what we got with Hanifin.  In any other draft, Hanifin would have been the first overall pick by a very wide margin.

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Well we have had people on both sides of the trade question on that one, so maybe it has some possibilities.

 

I would not trade Hanifin for either of them, and I highly doubt the Oilers have any interest in trading Draisaitl, though I would make that deal in a nano second and throw in say Ward too. They just love Draisaitl at the moment.

 

AS you point out Lake: Draisaitl is #3 overall, big, and is off to a 1.2ppg start this year. He was the guy I really wanted that year, he is 1.2 ppg at just 20 years old. But he makes the slighter built RNH potentially available, since he would be their 3rd line center, and that just probably won't work.

 

So  Hanifin is basically untradable and I would say so is Draisaitl.

 

But Fleury....remember, we still have Faulk/Hanifin as a really nice top pair for years. I am sold on Pesce. Chicago has shown that one stud dman, one near All Star dman, and one very solid dman can be enough, but even after trading Fleury we would have more than that as one of Slavin, Murphy, and McKeown is bound to be a very good #4. Plus finding a nice #4 dman in UFA is more doable.

 

Teams win championships with one stud dman, one near All Star dman, and two very good mid pairing guys all the time. We've never had that since I can remember. But we could trade Fleury and still have that. (Very few teams go 6 deep on defense, or even 5. Can't afford to).

 

I have not said I would do it, but it is an interesting thought. The Oilers would have Nurse and Fleury to go wtih all those forwards...but I am just posing the question for discussion. And there might be better trades out there too.

Edited by remkin

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To me, including guys like Eberle or RNH, who both average 6-mil/yr on long-term deals, in trades for prospects is muddy waters. Doesn't really scream equal value, considering prospects are on entry level deals, and we aren't close to competing.

 

The thought of adding a player like Draisaitl, for Fleury, that's not crazy and actually makes a lot of sense.  Probably not the best example as I think he's as unmovable as Hanifin is here.

 

I still think it may be too soon to pull off something like this, but I like the concept because it's thinking out a few years

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Another good point to think about, coastal. 

 

In addition to salary, I'd rule Eberle out since he's 25 and as we all agree it's likely going to be a couple of years down the road before we're really competitive. RNH is only 22, so at least the age thing isn't really an issue with him.  You're certainly right about the salary differential muddying things up, but I don't know how that translates to respective "value" given the different places RNH and Fleury are in their careers. I wonder how big a deal that $6m might be to the Canes with $15m likely coming off the books (Ward and E)? 

 

Since we're talking young Edmonton talent, I took a look at Yakupov.  Another 1st overall draft pick, only 22 , RW (a position we're really thin at), and a more reasonable $2.5m through the end of next season after which he'd be an RFA.  He's put up much lower numbers than RNH but the thing that jumped out at me is his +- over the last 2 full seasons: -35 and -33 :shock:.  Even accounting for horrible Oilers teams that's shocking!

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I just feel that this team is being built to have most of its scoring from the blue line. Fleury will also help with that in the semi near future. Trading him would set us back long term IMO.

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Well we have had people on both sides of the trade question on that one, so maybe it has some possibilities.

 

I would not trade Hanifin for either of them, and I highly doubt the Oilers have any interest in trading Draisaitl, though I would make that deal in a nano second and throw in say Ward too. They just love Draisaitl at the moment.

 

AS you point out Lake: Draisaitl is #3 overall, big, and is off to a 1.2ppg start this year. He was the guy I really wanted that year, he is 1.2 ppg at just 20 years old. But he makes the slighter built RNH potentially available, since he would be their 3rd line center, and that just probably won't work.

 

So  Hanifin is basically untradable and I would say so is Draisaitl.

 

But Fleury....remember, we still have Faulk/Hanifin as a really nice top pair for years. I am sold on Pesce. Chicago has shown that one stud dman, one near All Star dman, and one very solid dman can be enough, but even after trading Fleury we would have more than that as one of Slavin, Murphy, and McKeown is bound to be a very good #4. Plus finding a nice #4 dman in UFA is more doable.

 

Teams win championships with one stud dman, one near All Star dman, and two very good mid pairing guys all the time. We've never had that since I can remember. But we could trade Fleury and still have that. (Very few teams go 6 deep on defense, or even 5. Can't afford to).

 

I have not said I would do it, but it is an interesting thought. The Oilers would have Nurse and Fleury to go wtih all those forwards...but I am just posing the question for discussion. And there might be better trades out there too.

 

 

This team in its current state is about to.

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Defense men take longer to develop.  Fleury can't even play in the AHL yet..  What kind of logic is this?  You can't base your opinion on what we got with Hanifin.  In any other draft, Hanifin would have been the first overall pick by a very wide margin.

 

Not basing my opinion based on what we got with Hanifin.  The logic is simple.  If he was a slam dunk he would be playing here already, just like Seth Jones did as well.  Slam dunk DMen move right into the NHL, while others take longer to develop, just like you said.  The very reason JR hated drafting DMen in the first is that they are harder to predict and you miss more often.

 

All I am saying is he may prove to not be a player worthy of the 7th pick.  We don't know yet.  I obviously hope he is going to be awesome for years to come.

 

If you can trade for a player in the same draft range that you already know is great, how is this not a move worth considering?  Bird in the hand vs two in the bush argument.  Normally I wouldn't consider it either as I happen to agree with you that defense wins championships, but it becomes more apparent that we are doing pretty good in the D area.  And are abysmal in the forward ranks, the worst I have ever seen.

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I think the debate is reasonable. Francis took the best player available in both drafts IMHO. He also wanted to get a big mobile defenseman, so the Fleury pick made all the sense in the world checking need and best player boxes. But then along comes last year's draft and the best player available is Hanfin by a country mile, but he is not really the need. But we take him. OK we have two big mobile prime future type guys.

 

But we also have Faulk, far ahead on the curve of Fleury, and then in a wonderful developement we see Pesce, already ready, and Slavin, admittedly too small of a sample size, but probably at least a #5 dman. Then on top of that Murphy  takes a step up, and even McKeown is looking good in juniors, and then it seems to look more and more like E. might be gone.

 

I get the idea of staying flush with great D prospects, but at some point Francis is going to have to find some elite forwards and the draft can be hit or miss, and UFA's are not lining up.

 

Ideally we could trade a McKeown or Murphy since I personally think Fleury is going to be very good and big and mobile. But if we want to make a move now, they will not likely bring back an elite forward.

Edited by remkin

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I think the debate is reasonable. Francis took the best player available in both drafts IMHO. He also wanted to get a big mobile defenseman, so the Fleury pick made all the sense in the world checking need and best player boxes. But then along comes last year's draft and the best player available is Hanfin by a country mile, but he is not really the need. But we take him. OK we have two big mobile prime future type guys.

 

 

Another good point.  Hanifin was not our greatest need, but he was too good to pass up.  And while he certainly doesn't make Fleury 'expendable', he gives us 2 (or 4 or 7, depending on your opinions of some of the other prospects) of a great thing.  But to go one step further, he's the readier of the 2 great things.  I certainly wouldn't trade Fleury for someone's washed-up 4th liner, but if you can get a proven young forward for him, i'd certainly argue that that's where the bigger need is at this time.

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