Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
top-shelf-1

The Great Cam Ward Debate Thread: Re-sign? Trade?

Recommended Posts

We don't know - but scouts do. (Or at least that's what we're paying them for.)

 

I suspect that's what it will come down to. If one of our scouts finds somebody they think can play as well or better than Cam, I think we'll try to get that player. Then again, the fact that it hasn't already happened suggests to me that such a guy isn't out there.

 

I will say this: I agree with those saying it's time to increase Lack's workload. If the eventual goal is for him to be our #1, and if we're out of the running this year anyway, there's no reason to wait. I think we start Lack Thursday and barring a terrible outing, he is considered the #1 during second quarter of the season, just as Cam was in the first.

 

I have a hard time believing there's been no other better options.  I've witnessed too many goalies jump ship to different teams and excel on other teams.  I'll give Francis a little leeway, seeing as though he inherited Cam's contract, appears to be making him earn his future on the team, and upgraded Khudobin for Lack.  But based on what i'm seeing this season, this team should explore their options in net.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

So anyway. If a mod would revise "resign" in this thread's title to the hyphenated form ("re-sign") since the software won't let me, it will make this word dude's day. 

 

Done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Canes went out and got Lack and then signed him to a two-year extension. :)

 

Just kidding, but why would the Canes commit to Lack for three years, if he's considered the backup goalie? 

 

The team is riding Cam like he's the number one as well.  The whole thing just seemed odd to me from the start.  Now it's even more confusing.

I agree. I know BP is about earning your spot, and I get the value of that - in the right situation. But I think this is where a platoon situation might have been best for the first 20 games, and you make the guy with the best numbers your #1 until he falters. 

 

Then again, if RF already decided that we're dealing Cam and that Lack will be going the rest of the way...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a hard time believing there's been no other better options.  I've witnessed too many goalies jump ship to different teams and excel on other teams.  I'll give Francis a little leeway, seeing as though he inherited Cam's contract, appears to be making him earn his future on the team, and upgraded Khudobin for Lack.  But based on what i'm seeing this season, this team should explore their options in net.

Absolutely agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Other than Nedeljkovich the prospects look to be pretty thin in goal.  So nobody's coming to the rescue from within for a while.

And I just checked out the top two goalie prospects for the upcoming draft. They're both over 6 feet, but #1 is 3.42/.897. Eeesh. Granted, it's in the QMJ, where defense is - uh - optional.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm still a bit blown away we extended our backup goalie before he played an NHL game for us.

 

Seems like we had more control of the goalie situation a few months ago to simply start 100% fresh if Lack sucked this year. While this team is rebuilding we may as well have however many goalies it takes come through the system to find the right one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still don't understand who all the "Cam trade now" peoples choice is for our #1 goalie.  Remember, we need one for this year and next year and the year after that at least?  So who? Lack?  rotating door of AhLer's?  somebody elses NHL throw away?  Like I said before, this team has enough problems to fix for the next few years.  Goaltending is not one of them.  Ward is still one of the best on a horrible team.

 

Make the team better and Ward shines. He has proven last year and this year that he still has amazingness in him.  two bad games is not a reason to leave us empty of the #1 goaltending position for years to come.  His current save % reflects this teams overall positon all around which is negative, and hurting

 

. Sure he blew the Rangers game, but how many wins could we have now if Eric Staal had more than 4 friggin goals?  Skinner had more than 5?   Lindholm had done anything the first month?  If Jordan could had more than 5?  Instead we are relying on goaltending and Justin faulk to score power play goals to win.  At least Ward and Faulk have gotten us 8 wins.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Make the team better and Ward shines. He has proven last year and this year that he still has amazingness in him.  two bad games is not a reason to leave us empty of the #1 goaltending position for years to come.  His current save % reflects this teams overall positon all around which is negative, and hurting

 

 

Sorry, but I'm not seeing the amazingness in Cam's game that you are, and I don't want the team to be tied to a declining talent for 2 or 3 more years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cam has both benefited and suffers from high expectations. He benefits in terms of a massive contract, and coach after coach deferring to him as the obvious #1. In the early years, the first few after the cup win, he was really not great. He made great saves and stood on his head but let in way too many soft goals. He then found his game for a couple of years, and then rode high expectations even after injuries and lack of confidence really hit his game hard for a couple of years. It helps him because when he gets into goalie battles, he is given the nod early in most cases. Only last year where he and Khudobin alternated for a while, did he have any true competition.

 

I really thought Lack would push him early, but Lack struggled and then had a disaster outing early and was shelved from that point on. Some of it may be showcasing Cam, but this notion of riding one stud goalie could be causing a bias from the coach too. Forslund says over and over that Cam has the form to be an elite goalie and "just you wait". I guess the coach sees it too. But since 2010-11, we've been waiting quite a while.

 

Cam has not been able to string an entire season together since his outstanding 2010-11 season. I know that historically he has seen more point blank and un-savable shots than the average goalie, but that has always been the case. Yet his save % continues to be between pedestrian and bad.

 

His career save % is .909. That is not great. (Great would be Lundquist at .921). But Cam's recent save percentage is worse. Like Eric, one question is whether Cam will ever be the best Cam again, or even a very good Cam. The last 4 years save % (averaging the years), is .903. This year so far is .898. Again, he has always faced more quality rubber, but that was also true when he was on his game he was .923 in 2010.

 

While his early success, his good form, and his big contract seem to give him the leg up, it also creates high expectations. As w/ Eric, he is being paid to be at least a top 10 goalie. He won the Conn Smythe right out of the gate. He was an All Star in 2010-11. But it has been down hill since then. at least 4 perhaps 5 years of vastly under-performing his contract and his perceived potential. There is a lot of mixed history, most recently bad history though.

 

Just for the record, Cam is currently sporting a tie for his worst save percentage ever at .898. Worst ever. He showed a very nice stretch last year from November-February was excellent. But March was not, and this year has been uneven at best. After a slow start he looked really good for some games and average for others. Still giving up more soft goals than during that nice stretch last year, but overall decent. His save % was admittedly unfair given a lot of defensive breakdowns. So, he was league average type, which is not terrible. But then the last two. Who boy. Lack would be sitting for 2 months if he rolled out those throughly unfocused soft goal city peformances.

 

Cam may still have very good left in him. I doubt he has great. And very good has only come and gone, here and there.

 

The problem with Cam and keeping him, is the same as Eric: anchoring bias. We are all anchored to their massive salaries. Cam is still, even now, paid to be the #6 goalie in the NHL. Cam has been the number 6 goalie once during this contract: 2010-11. Never before that and never after.

 

As it sits he is roughly the #45 goalie in the league. That is ironic in that it is almost by definition the exact middle of the pack.....for backups. The #45 paid goalie right now makes: $1,250,000/year.

 

Since it is far from clear that Cam will ever be a good #1 goalie, the most he is worth IMHO is a top tiered back up. $3 million is the starting range for bottom tier #1's. I think Cam is worth, at most $2.5 million/year, and of course NO NTC. But if I'm making an honest assessment of Cam's salary based on the past 4 years, it would be closer to $1,250,000/year.

 

This is the harsh reality. We have utterly spoiled our favorite golden boys and that is coming home to roost. OF COURSE ERIC AND CAM WANT TO STAY HERE. But if we are going to get real, they are simply not going to like it.

 

Eric: $5 million/year no NTC

Cam: $2 million/year no NTC

 

Would either take that? I doubt it. But IMHO those are very very fair offers. Yet most likely they will both be offended by them. But to me: take it or leave it. If you really want to be part of this team, you will not only do it because you'll be massively overpaid. You'll take a fair salary. But will they?

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We can sit here and debate what types of goals Cam is giving up, or the quality of the shots he's facing, or the how the team in front of him is playing, but by all quantitative measures he's not proven to be very good.  This includes the eye test (at least for me) and any statistical data you choose to take a look at.

 

Is Lack any better or worse?  I don't know, because 5 starts isn't enough for me to say one way or the other.  Cam could be the best goalie on THIS team, but that doesn't make him a good goalie, and it certainly isn't a justification for re-signing him.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cam has both benefited and suffers from high expectations. He benefits in terms of a massive contract, and coach after coach deferring to him as the obvious #1. In the early years, the first few after the cup win, he was really not great. He made great saves and stood on his head but let in way too many soft goals. He then found his game for a couple of years, and then rode high expectations even after injuries and lack of confidence really hit his game hard for a couple of years. It helps him because when he gets into goalie battles, he is given the nod early in most cases. Only last year where he and Khudobin alternated for a while, did he have any true competition.

 

I really thought Lack would push him early, but Lack struggled and then had a disaster outing early and was shelved from that point on. Some of it may be showcasing Cam, but this notion of riding one stud goalie could be causing a bias from the coach too. Forslund says over and over that Cam has the form to be an elite goalie and "just you wait". I guess the coach sees it too. But since 2010-11, we've been waiting quite a while.

 

Cam has not been able to string an entire season together since his outstanding 2010-11 season. I know that historically he has seen more point blank and un-savable shots than the average goalie, but that has always been the case. Yet his save % continues to be between pedestrian and bad.

 

His career save % is .909. That is not great. (Great would be Lundquist at .921). But Cam's recent save percentage is worse. Like Eric, one question is whether Cam will ever be the best Cam again, or even a very good Cam. The last 4 years save % (averaging the years), is .903. This year so far is .898. Again, he has always faced more quality rubber, but that was also true when he was on his game he was .923 in 2010.

 

While his early success, his good form, and his big contract seem to give him the leg up, it also creates high expectations. As w/ Eric, he is being paid to be at least a top 10 goalie. He won the Conn Smythe right out of the gate. He was an All Star in 2010-11. But it has been down hill since then. at least 4 perhaps 5 years of vastly under-performing his contract and his perceived potential. There is a lot of mixed history, most recently bad history though.

 

Just for the record, Cam is currently sporting a tie for his worst save percentage ever at .898. Worst ever. He showed a very nice stretch last year from November-February was excellent. But March was not, and this year has been uneven at best. After a slow start he looked really good for some games and average for others. Still giving up more soft goals than during that nice stretch last year, but overall decent. His save % was admittedly unfair given a lot of defensive breakdowns. So, he was league average type, which is not terrible. But then the last two. Who boy. Lack would be sitting for 2 months if he rolled out those throughly unfocused soft goal city peformances.

 

Cam may still have very good left in him. I doubt he has great. And very good has only come and gone, here and there.

 

The problem with Cam and keeping him, is the same as Eric: anchoring bias. We are all anchored to their massive salaries. Cam is still, even now, paid to be the #6 goalie in the NHL. Cam has been the number 6 goalie once during this contract: 2010-11. Never before that and never after.

 

As it sits he is roughly the #45 goalie in the league. That is ironic in that it is almost by definition the exact middle of the pack.....for backups. The #45 paid goalie right now makes: $1,250,000/year.

 

Since it is far from clear that Cam will ever be a good #1 goalie, the most he is worth IMHO is a top tiered back up. $3 million is the starting range for bottom tier #1's. I think Cam is worth, at most $2.5 million/year, and of course NO NTC. But if I'm making an honest assessment of Cam's salary based on the past 4 years, it would be closer to $1,250,000/year.

 

This is the harsh reality. We have utterly spoiled our favorite golden boys and that is coming home to roost. OF COURSE ERIC AND CAM WANT TO STAY HERE. But if we are going to get real, they are simply not going to like it.

 

Eric: $5 million/year no NTC

Cam: $2 million/year no NTC

 

Would either take that? I doubt it. But IMHO those are very very fair offers. Yet most likely they will both be offended by them. But to me: take it or leave it. If you really want to be part of this team, you will not only do it because you'll be massively overpaid. You'll take a fair salary. But will they?

 

I would be willing to bet folding money that Cam's weak spot is glove side high, rather than point blank and what you feel as un-savable . Every goalie has those moments in the muck when a puck slips through.

 

As far as the Eric and Cam contracts, who do you think will pay even that given the current circumstances? Looking at them from a GM prospective, are they better that what I have or even what is in my minor leagues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SRemember, we need one for this year and next year and the year after that at least?

 

 

Well, the futility in this argument is the obvious one - his contract expires before next year and the year after that.  If he were signed through those years, this would be mere water cooler chatter.  But he isn't, so we can't just coast through.  And is Francis going to extend him 2 more years at his current $6.3M clip in order to keep him?  If he does, then this team fully deserves the sub-.900 play they'll likely get from him.

 

 

Cam has both benefited and suffers from high expectations...

 

 

Great post, rem.  I still stand by my $3M number, but that's the only place i disagree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be willing to bet folding money that Cam's weak spot is glove side high, rather than point blank and what you feel as un-savable . Every goalie has those moments in the muck when a puck slips through.

 

As far as the Eric and Cam contracts, who do you think will pay even that given the current circumstances? Looking at them from a GM prospective, are they better that what I have or even what is in my minor leagues.

 

My point on that is that it seems that Cam faces more quality scoring chances. If there is a stat for that which disproves that, I would be willing to back off that contention. It is certainly true in the games we play. I'd rather be the opposing goalie facing our shots, than all of the d breakdowns Cam faces. I do agree that glove high is a weakness. But his biggest weakness is lapses in concentration and soft goals. When he was good from Nov-Feb last year, soft goals happened, but they were far rarer. Whatever the weaknesses, at some point the save % still has to be at least near .915, and Cam has not hit that for 4 years.

 

I really don't know what their open market value would be (what another GM would pay).  Eric plays a key position, and still has some historic cache'. A few years ago in the lockout, which was post injuries, he put up over 1 ppg for the year. He probably still gets overpaid on the open market as teams who need a 1C and haven't had one would think he would be that or at least a really good 2C. Also, if the team has an elite winger, the old, "change of scenery" argument could loom large, and actually might be legit.

 

Cam, I mean I am putting a very low number out there at $2 million. As a #1 he would be at the bottom, though as a backup he would be at the top. It is so hard to know. I'm pretty sure he will not get another NTC from anyone though.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.puckalytics.com/

 

There are a few sites out there that chart individual games but it is hard to actually quantify "which goalie has it tougher".

 

The unfortunate thing for Cam is that this season's Corsi and Fenwick stats, both for and against are great for the Canes.

 

Which leads to 2 also unfortunate conclusions:

 

1) We shoot a lot but can't score to save our lives

2) Our goaltending stinks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WHO would want to get a goalie that makes what Cam makes(money) and has only gotten his team to the playoffs, 1 time since he was made the #1 goalie after the Canes won the CUP! He was a rookie, that no teams knew his weak spots until he became the #1 goalie! And where have we been since then!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every tangible stat (W/L, save %, goals allowed, team save %, etc) indicates that Cam Ward is one of the worst starting goalies in the league (and has been for a while).  Once you get past emotion and hanging onto that mental image of him hoisting the Shiny Thing, I don't see the reason why he would be re-signed at this point in his career.  If the logic is to use him as a backup, then we now have 2 backup goalies.  Is that the direction RF should be going?

 

As for making the occasional spectacular save, every goalie in the league does that.  As for the "defense plays better in front of him", well, you can't measure that and I don't buy that argument.  For years the defense was allowing more shots on goal that almost anybody, and Cam was the victim in that crime.

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every tangible stat (W/L, save %, goals allowed, team save %, etc) indicates that Cam Ward is one of the worst starting goalies in the league (and has been for a while).  Once you get past emotion and hanging onto that mental image of him hoisting the Shiny Thing, I don't see the reason why he would be re-signed at this point in his career.  If the logic is to use him as a backup, then we now have 2 backup goalies.  Is that the direction RF should be going?

 

As for making the occasional spectacular save, every goalie in the league does that.  As for the "defense plays better in front of him", well, you can't measure that and I don't buy that argument.  For years the defense was allowing more shots on goal that almost anybody, and Cam was the victim in that crime.

My hope is that Eddie Lack settles in and begins to really shine tonight, that we see as much of him for the second two months of the season as we saw of Cam the first two, and that he grabs the #1 goalie job and never looks back. If that happens, all the questions about what to do with Cam are easy to answer: He's offered a backup's deal and if he turns it down and cannot return us at least a second-rounder, we let him finish out the season with us and wish him the best on the FA market.

 

If Lack doesn't grab the job, the questions we've been kicking around here remain, because no matter how low he may rank as a #1, the bottom line is that nobody else we've brought in has shown they can do any better. Yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My hope is that Eddie Lack settles in and begins to really shine tonight, that we see as much of him for the second two months of the season as we saw of Cam the first two, and that he grabs the #1 goalie job and never looks back. If that happens, all the questions about what to do with Cam are easy to answer: He's offered a backup's deal and if he turns it down and cannot return us at least a second-rounder, we let him finish out the season with us and wish him the best on the FA market.

 

If Lack doesn't grab the job, the questions we've been kicking around here remain, because no matter how low he may rank as a #1, the bottom line is that nobody else we've brought in has shown they can do any better. Yet.

 

I agree w/ this point of view.

 

The problem has always been a combination of sentiments around Cam. He was drafted highly for a goalie, played his brains out on route to the Stanley Cup, and Conn Smythe, and was, like Eric, given the keys to the Kingdom deal. As has been the tendency w/ JR and his golden boys, the deal was too rich, too soon, for too long and locked in with a NTC.

 

Cam did improve, did follow the plan up to 2010-11. That year he was arguably, (but good arguements) the 5th best goalie in the NHL. His save % was .923, 5th among goalies with a decent number of starts. It had basically risen every year to that one also. So he had arrived. But it was a brief flash as it turns out. His play matched his salary that one year, and then fell back, .915 then .908, then .898.

 

So many argue that being the #1 is a whole different level. OK, but so is only getting the back to back in Philly when the team fails to show up, and then going back on the shelf for 7 games. That is what happens to our backups the majority of years (including this one). Cam gets to go out and have bad performances and then get right back in there.

 

That's part of why I, and clearly others, think we need to give Lack a true chance. Let him play through some shakey games if they come. See what we have. (remember his disaster game where he couldn't stop puck from dribbling out of his pads? Some thought, "who is this clown". But when he got back in, he was much better. BTW a lot of teams that go on runs ride a goalie that kind of comes out of nowhere (last year Hamburgler), so who knows, why not?

 

The main things holding us back from moving Cam have been his insane contract  (w/ NTC) vs his peformance, but the other thing has been fear. Fear that we will become one of those teams searching forever for their #1 goalie. What we need to realize is that Cam has proven to be the very inconsistent goalie that if he didn't have the #1 tag all over him, would have relegated him to permanent back up on most NHL teams long ago.

 

I  also fear what might happen to this team sans E. Staal.

 

But it is time to stop letting fear rule. These guys have both been paid to deliver big things and have delivered little things. The continued hope that they might still have big things in them, and of course the dang NTC's have held us back. No more.

 

The future is paying guys for performance. If either Cam or Eric is willing to take major pay cuts and drop their NTC's, I'd still keep one or even both. But I've laid out numbers that I doubt they'll take. So if that's the case, embrace the change.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree.  What I am having trouble wrapping my mind around is that we aren't set at goalie, and I have had that assumption for years.

 

So all this talk about fixing the forwards in the draft is hogwash if we don't have a #1 goalie.  Goalie is the #1 most important position to address.  So we might have to consider the incredibly boring unglamorous position of drafting a goalie with our first pick in the first round when everyone else is drafting sexy snipers, mammoth power forwards and speedsters.

 

And that is assuming we have a ability to scout a premier goalie, and also that there even is one out there in the next draft.

 

That is the depressing thing to me.  I never thought Cam was top 10, but I thought he was at least top 20 and gave us a competitive chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you had a goalie whose stats for the season were .882 save percentage along with a 3.68 GAA , but went 15 and 8 over his last 23 games with a.920 save percentage along with 2.14 GAA. . You would probably think this goalie sucks but might be willing to see him get a higher percentage of starts just to see if there was anything worth holding on to. So i think again it's time to give Lack a high number of starts just to see if anything develops. We already know what Cam is bringing to the table.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree.  What I am having trouble wrapping my mind around is that we aren't set at goalie, and I have had that assumption for years.

 

So all this talk about fixing the forwards in the draft is hogwash if we don't have a #1 goalie.  Goalie is the #1 most important position to address.  So we might have to consider the incredibly boring unglamorous position of drafting a goalie with our first pick in the first round when everyone else is drafting sexy snipers, mammoth power forwards and speedsters.

 

And that is assuming we have a ability to scout a premier goalie, and also that there even is one out there in the next draft.

 

That is the depressing thing to me.  I never thought Cam was top 10, but I thought he was at least top 20 and gave us a competitive chance.

Yeah, as I posted earlier, the top goalie prospect for the 2016 draft, Evan Fitzpatrick, is big, but his numbers are not impressive (altho in fairness, he's also playing in a league [QMJ] where guys need to score on a 2 PPG pace to even get noticed).

 

Of course, there's one piece of all this that we haven't directly discussed: Maybe RF and BP decided, upon acquiring Lack, that Cam would get 'til Thanksgiving, and that if we're not in the mix (which we are not) the job is Lack's?

 

That sure would explain BP's repeated reinforcement of Thanksgiving as being crucial, Ron's reference to early December as the time "the team will decide whether offers are extended" to Cam and Eric, etc. It could well be that Cam is now the backup until he is moved, and that after that happens, Tirronen or McIntyre comes to Raleigh to fill out our goaltending tandem the rest of the way.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I honestly feel that Ward was being "showcased" for a possible trade down the line.  That tactic is a double edged sword, and all his warts have shown.  I honestly don't feel that he has much if any value now.  Time to give Lacko Taco a ride and see what happens.  We need to know how he handles a steady workload here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...