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Lake,

 

I get your point. Just how much impact is reasonable to expect from various players, and in this case especially our two new Finns. We're mostly thinking they're going to be pretty good, but how good?

 

I know Coastal and I have talked about 35 points for Aho, and yes I'd bump that to 40 maybe, but it this Johnny Gaudreau right out of the box? Probably not and if we're thinking 60 plus points on Aho, we probably should dial it back. quite a bit.

 

TT is further along in his development, sort of primed for a breakout. How big? That's really hard to predict. If he gets lots of PP time (which he should), and gels on a line, he really could go fairly big, but throwing a number out there just gets debate. I really like the way he looks and moves, like a tall Patrick Kane. I am NOT predicting he breaks 100 points. I don' think his shot is good enough to get him more than 20 Goals though, so I'd aim for hoping he hits 50 points. There I just threw a number out there.

Edited by remkin

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I expect Aho and TT to produce somewhere near (but not over) the 38 and 39 points that EStaal and Versteeg put up. I don't think that's over optimistic. That plus 40 or so from Stempniak plus a minimal improvement across the board from the other utes could make this team interesting.

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I expect Aho and TT to produce somewhere near (but not over) the 38 and 39 points that EStaal and Versteeg put up. I don't think that's over optimistic. That plus 40 or so from Stempniak plus a minimal improvement across the board from the other utes could make this team interesting.

 

I don't think your expectations for TT and Aho are unrealistic, either.  I'd be happy if Stempniak tops 40 (I'm taking the under), but I think we'll see a big bump from Lindholm, which will more than offset that.  And I'll call your "could be interesting" and raise you "could be very exciting". :woohoo:   I'm loving the direction this team is headed (speed and skill).

 

Rem, just to keep things in perspective, I know you aren't really thinking Gaudreau type numbers for Aho.  But if someone were (and I haven't heard anyone say that), I'd point out that Johnny Hockey didn't have his first big year until he was 21yo; Tyler Johnson had his at 23yo.  

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think if you polled the general fandom you would find "some" of those who are relatively unfamiliar with those players buying into the hype (and yeah, its out there).   Like the guy you quoted Lake.  Obviously, he's never seen Aho play until the WCH.  I just think its interesting that nobody here has done so that I can remember.  I think if you polled this board you won't find that at all. 

 

25-35 points for a kid Aho's age in a new league on smaller ice (although I really don't think that's a factor for him) with new teammates and a new system would be a good season, IMO.   I hope TT can at least bring the points he scored last year to the Canes.  I'm not expecting much more than 40 points (for some of the same reasons as Aho) from him but if he can put up a few more, that's gravy.

 

I'm not sure what to expect of Lindholm.  He's kind of a Jekyll and Hyde player to me.  We need him to bring more, but right now I'm not banking on it.

 

On Stempniak, I'd have to go with the historical average rather than the career year he put up last year.

 

I still believe special teams is going to be much improved, regardless of the points these guys put up.  Same with 3 on 3 and shootouts.  A big improvement here would be huge, but even a moderate improvement could get us closer to the promised land. 

 

A lot of things are going to have to fall right to make the playoffs.  See, I'm setting myself up to be surprised, not let down.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I like having you around, legend, so--you know, don't hold your breath...

Good advice because according to the post after yours I'd of died haha

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TT and Aho are already in Raleigh. Pretty sure this is a picture of them in the Canes dressing room.  Does anyone else think Aho looks like he's about 16yo? He makes the current Tolchinsky look like a grandfather, Lol! 

 

Oh, and I just read that we offered Michal Jordan a 2-way contract but that he's holding out in hopes of signing on to a team that's willing to give him a 1-way.  I didn't know that. 

 

CtDd9vrWYAAB3u1.jpg

Edited by LakeLivin

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Great to see them. One thing that I am fully realizing is that both of these guys are listed as essentially the same size, and looking at that picture bears it out. For some reason TT seems taller on his skates. Clearly not the case. These guys will need to bring the speed, skill and smarts because they aren't going to be beating anyone up.

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It is hard (well I didn't really try that hard) to find a good comparable to Aho. A small, but slick, quick, but not lighting guy, who did not get super rushed a la, Skinner or Lindholm, but did play in all kinds of competition levels with men, and best on best yutes during that 18-19 year, but mostly on big ice (though the word cup........of hockey was played on NHL ice, and he seemed to be ok).

 

The best I can do is compare him with his likely line-mate: Lindholm. Lindholm is bigger, but then again, has never really big NHL physicality, and reportedly had to work on this. Lindholm was a #5 overall pick. However, Aho would go way higher if a redraft were held today.

 

Aho debuts a year older, and has developed his skills in multiple settings, but all high competition levels over the past year. The highest level of all, Word Cup..........of hockey, his first on the small ice too, he was generating chances. I would predict that a full camp and learning his linemates and the Peter's system, that he would be more effective as the year roles on. An average NHL game will be less difficult than a World Cup game. And he'll get more used to the small ice.

 

Lindholm had to adjust to the small ice at age 18 not having had that year to work on his game that Aho has had.

 

Lindholm's first season, 18 years old, not in NHL shape, he put up 21 points, but in 58 games: .36 ppg or 30 points for full 82 games.

Lindholm's 19 year old season, still not in NHL shape supposedly, he put up 39 points, .48 ppg, including 19 goals.

 

I think there is a big advantage to having an NHL season under the belt, then a summer off to train, a new camp, and a new second season. That helped Lindholm between year 1 and 2 (though not year 2 and 3). Aho has not had that.

 

But Aho is a very slick playmaker and it is easier to compile assists than goals (since they hand out two assists on most goals).

 

I think Aho's point totals may well depend on Lindholm, ironically. We still don't have a bonefide third line center. At this point Lindy seems destined to at least start there. IF Lindholm is primed for the breakout some of us are predicting, and TT can hold up his end of that line, Aho's points could really jump up. Both TT and Lindholm are at a point on their development curve where they really could arrive at the 50 plus point level. Think of it too, this is our 3rd line. They will probably not see top pair D men (which every pair was in the World Cup) very often. That is the upside, and it's pretty high. If Lindy breaks through 50 and TT approaches it, Aho could break 40 or dare say even more.

 

Just looking at what Lindholm did, and projecting Aho slightly higher due to playmaking and a year older, and his resume from last year, Aho should be able to hit 30 points as a fairly low end of the range.  (Lindy on a 30 point pace at 18, and rushed, and 39 at 19, but with an NHL year under the belt.

 

If I were to lay down a bet, and we assume that Aho plays close to a full season, I would actually go 38 points, let's say .46 ppg. That's actually top 150 forwards last year (38 points), very solid second line numbers. That would really be excellent production for him. But if that line gets going? That's where the expectations would lift to happy-faced optimism. Skinner put up 63 points as an 18 year old....of course that was pretty insane, but hope does spring eternal this time of year.

Edited by remkin

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I don't get it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I keed. Hey maybe I could have pared that one down a bit. If you can't laugh at yourself....you can always laugh at SuperDave.

 

:coollaugh:

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See what you did up there^

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CtDd9vrWYAAB3u1.jpg

 

I hope these two have lights on their bikes.  Some will get this.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I hope these two have lights on their bikes.  Some will get this.

I do. If there is overtime or a shootout, they will probably have to leave because they heard their father whistle.

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Well we do have too many LHD for the long run: Bean, Fleury, Slavin, and Hanifin.

 

I'm trying to figure out what the trade would be though. We don't want to give up any serious forwards, so it would have to be a LHD for RHD type thing. I would never trade Hanifin, but the Jets probably wouldn't take Bean, Fleury or Slavin for Trouba.

 

What did you have in mind, top? Or was it just more of a general interest thing?

Edited by remkin

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Well we do have too many LHD for the long run: Bean, Fleury, Slavin, and Hanifin.

I'm trying to figure out what the trade would be though. We don't want to give up any serious forwards, so it would have to be a LHD for RHD type thing. I would never trade Hanifin, but the Jets probably wouldn't take Bean, Fleury or Slavin for Trouba.

What did you have in mind, top? Or was it just more of a general interest thing?

Bean and a 3rd rounder for Trouba. I don't know though. this request could jeopardize his NHL career. It shouts "I'm not a team player" to me. Edited by bluedevil58

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I hope these two have lights on their bikes.  Some will get this.

So, who are these two? Is that Bean? Can't imagine them being NHL ready anytime soon, holy crap.

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So, who are these two? Is that Bean? Can't imagine them being NHL ready anytime soon, holy crap.

nevermind looked it up, thats Aho. Wow, guess the NHL regressing on physicality makes it possible for them to hang. I guess Skinner looked like that when he won the calder..

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I really don't see us getting in on that either. At first glance Slavin for Trouba might be worth doing, and I bet that Winnepeg would think that an unfair trade, yet, I'm not even sure I'd do that one. Slavin is pretty danged good and put up similar numbers to Trouba. Fleury for Trouba? Fleury just looks so good in his size and skating...but maybe that one, but Winnepeg is going to want a proven NHL D man.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Francis actually throws an offer out there (maybe Fleury for Trouba), Trouba's plus 10 second best on the team by a good bit, and his points are just under top pair, and he's way below peak, and he's big, and he was, apparently playing his off side. Still, I would be surprised if we ever hear about any offer it, or it actually happens.

 

I really don't know Trouba in terms of his "me before team" attitude. I agree that this raises that question. But people wondered about that with Drouin too. IF Francis et all have a feel for a player, they would have a sense about that type of issue. I absolutely agree that we want guys who want to play here first and foremost, and cannot be overly self centered. But this kind of appearance also creates the opportunity. And we could put Trouba on the RHD, which he wants to be.

 

If we went Faulk, Trouba, Pesce// Hainsey, Slavin, Hanifin? That would be a pretty dang good D immediately. We would be basically inserting Trouba for Murphy.

 

The problem of course will be paying all of those guys and Bean eventually. That, and we need a guy to throw to the expansion draft, and Murphy sure seems to be that guy. I guess we could pay Hainsey off to be that guy...

 

Anyways, Francis has held his prospects and young guns tightly. I don't really think he makes this move.  But this year Trouba in for Murphy could make this defense ridiculously good. So fun food for thought anyway.

Edited by remkin

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Let's not also forget that Trouba is still in a contract dispute, and it's suggested that he's asking for $6 million AAV. Add on to the fact that I think Pesce's going to be a better version of him, and that would make him our highest paid Dman and tied for highest paid player, not interested. I'd rather spend that money on a 1st liner.

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Anyways, Francis has held his prospects and young guns tightly. I don't really think he makes this move.  But this year Trouba in for Murphy could make this defense ridiculously good. So fun food for thought anyway.

 

 

... and then we have to choose between exposing Trouba or Faulk in the expansion draft, since i somehow doubt Hainsey signs an extension that makes him expansion fodder.

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