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Did you cherry pick a stat in post 819?

Just asking

Maybe in one way, but not the way I intended it to mean with my comment. I picked a stat to use as an evaluation tool. They picked only a partial time period of one stat to use as a justification. The stat I chose covers the whole year played, the number they chose is only valid if you don't count the whole sample size. I think there is a huge difference, but you are welcome to your own opinion.

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I would add that I get taking Cam's totals in evaluating him. My point is that Francis' job is not to rank the best goalies over the past 7 years, his job is to predict the most likely performance to expect from Cam in the next 1-2 years, and decide if it's worth the price, or if there is a better option. Those are very different things.

 

If one is to rank Cam's overall performance, it has been mostly under-performance. Even over the past 2 years, if taken as a whole, without skipping his bad starts, he has been below the cut for number one goalies.

 

But what would be a reasonable prediction for the next two years?

 

The very good has actually outweighed the very bad for long stretches (not just a few games). 4 month stretches at the end of both years were actually quite good. That's 7-8 months, with about 3 months of bad in there. The other thing is that it's not like it was good -bad, good-bad, rapidly cycling. It was about one month of really bad, then 4 months of good, including 2-3 consecutive months of stellar. 

 

So it essentially has come down to two years of really bad starts. Now I agree this is a major issue, because bad starts have killed us. But if Cam can start on time, he could surprise a lot o people because he's been really good after that.

 

Francis has said that the first year's bad start was system. Plus Cam was still coming off of 2 horrid, injury filled years. My question is why the bad start last year?

 

I would point out that if Cam did not have those bad starts, he is demanding more pay, etc,

 

But mainly Francis looked out at UFA where a fairly average Reimer was the best goalie available, probably going to get overpaid, and thought Cam can be better.

 

As to trading, the one thing I've seen from Francis thusfar is that he does not want to give much up. In order to trade for a #1 goalie, we'd have to give something up.

 

I do think now that goalie is locked down, and we picked up TT for nothing, that he still has almost all of his ammo to make a bigger trade for one more forward if he wants.

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My vote is still for Ladd due to his extensive playoff and captain experience.

 

Isn't Ladd soon to be 31 and looking for term?

 

That's not aligning with the comments Francis just made about giving guys in that age range long-term deals.

 

Based on that alone, there's probably not a deal there.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Yeah, I think Francis will be wary of the combination of age, term, price, and NTC.

 

He might overpay for a Ladd, but only if the term is short, and he can be traded. He might over term for Ladd, but only if the pay is right and he can be traded, and like-wise for anyone else.

 

On the one hand Francis has said a deal has to make sense. On the other hand, Francis has been unwilling to part with any substantial players or prospects thusfar, and the one great thing about UFA's is that you don't have to give any players or picks up. That's the main reason I really hope he can land one.

 

I would be very happy with Okposo, and he has the best age of the bunch, but in his case, I really wonder about his deal. I think he's going to be overpaid with term and money. Which would be fine if he comes in and delivers, but I think, while he would be a good addition as a power forward, of all the guys in UFA he is the most likely a product of his linemate, one of the best in hockey. Thus, while he will be good, his numbers will almost certainly drop back. But he'll be paid for the numbers he has now, and for being the youngest UFA.

 

So I'm saying he will be a good player, but has a high likelihood of underperforming his contract, possibly by a good bit.

Edited by remkin

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But what would be a reasonable prediction for the next two years?

 

...

 

But if Cam can start on time, he could surprise a lot o people because he's been really good after that.

 

 

Unfortunately i think the 'reasonable prediction' would be for Ward to start late again.  I mean, has he ever truly started a season on time?

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Sentimentalist that I am, coupled with the admiration I experienced from day 1 of his time with the Canes, my ideal UFA acquisition would be Andrew Ladd. Still have and proudly wear his jersey when he comes to town.

 

Saying that, I feel that "ship has sailed". Okposa certainly makes imminently more sense, both in age and scoring prowess, and could be part of this team's resurgence for years. Don't know if he could be tempted south, or his asking price "would make sense", but I'd jump for joy if RF could reel him in.

 

On another front, and i don't intend this as any kind of insult because I'm guilty of these things too, but to sit back and read the angst many express on here regarding the resigning of Cam Ward is amusing to say the least. I mean the majority, if not the entirety, of readers here literally are swooning over RF's shrewdness in the trades he's made so far, yet we now question this signing, just a few days following his acknowledged COUP!! Seeing how Ron has steered our ship thru some rocky, post JR times, I for one will give him the latitude on all his decisions. We hopefully will be surprised.    

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Unfortunately i think the 'reasonable prediction' would be for Ward to start late again.  I mean, has he ever truly started a season on time?

 

That is my concern too. One thing we really need is at least a decent start this year. Clearly Francis thinks he can get it done.

Edited by remkin

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I've said all along that the last thing we need to waste time or money on this offseason is goaltending and I think RF agreed. We need to score goals, that was our problem. Put a team that is confident, winning, can score goals and wait and see how Ward and Lack respond. It's not easy being on an inconfident losing team for years, it wares off on you, just like winning does.

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Isles pretty much confirmed Okposo will not be resigned.

I know every team will be interested in him, but I hope Francis at least makes a pitch to him. A signing of this caliber would push us into the playoffs. And in a couple seasons we could be a very scary team.

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RF on Adam and Joe yesterday really gave me some hope. Said he's basically still looking to fill a roll in the top 6 (read: top line C/Wing). We all know he's pretty tight lipped, so that much info really gave me a little jolt of excitement. 

 

Also sounded like he was pretty much done in goal. We also have the expansion draft to worry about, which makes Cam's contract make more sense. We have to expose at least 1 GK signed through 2017-18. 

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Also sounded like he was pretty much done in goal. We also have the expansion draft to worry about, which makes Cam's contract make more sense. We have to expose at least 1 GK signed through 2017-18.

 

No offense to you, but I've heard this repeated ad nauseum since the signing. We already have Lack to expose if we had a better goalie to protect. There are some reasonable reasons to resign Ward, but this is not one of them.

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RF on Adam and Joe yesterday really gave me some hope. Said he's basically still looking to fill a roll in the top 6 (read: top line C/Wing). We all know he's pretty tight lipped, so that much info really gave me a little jolt of excitement. 

 

Also sounded like he was pretty much done in goal. We also have the expansion draft to worry about, which makes Cam's contract make more sense. We have to expose at least 1 GK signed through 2017-18. 

 

Excellent. I was hoping, even predicting it, but to hear it from the man is great.

 

I really think that one more 50 plus point forward, and we are a playoff team.

 

In fact, if Francis pulls that off, it will all come down to goaltending. While this team was good at limiting shots, it was not good at limiting goals, and that, is mostly goaltending. BTW when we were getting that top 5 Cam Francis speaks of, we we were winning during that stretch.

Edited by remkin

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No offense to you, but I've heard this repeated ad nauseum since the signing. We already have Lack to expose if we had a better goalie to protect. There are some reasonable reasons to resign Ward, but this is not one of them.

 

None taken  :) I guess I should've prefaced my statement with "assuming management thinks Lack is the way to go"

 

...Which I think most of us here agree hope it's not....

Edited by canesfan06

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It looks like goaltending will be the most interesting part of the puzzle next year. My hope is that Eddie gets enough early work that he can settle in. But I also hope that if he doesn't look any better, RF has a plan B and he implements it toot freakin' sweet.

 

Digging another hole in October simply is not an option.

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Isn't Ladd soon to be 31 and looking for term?

 

That's not aligning with the comments Francis just made about giving guys in that age range long-term deals.

 

Based on that alone, there's probably not a deal there.

 

At first glance Ladd seems like a good candidate.  The eye test says so.

 

However, if you look here:    https://twitter.com/HawksBreakdown?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

on June 6th (and it will take you a long time to get back to June 6th) they have a bunch of stats comparing Ladd, Teuvo and Shaw when they are playing alongside Toews and Hossa.  The stats all say that Teuvo is by far the best of the 3 when playing with Toews/Hossa, both offensively and defensively.  

 

I was pretty shocked to see him significantly better that Ladd.  I don't really know Shaw's game.

 

All of this says that we already got the good guy, and Ladd was the worst of the 3 pretty much.

 

Sorry, it is a bit of work to see this, but that twitter account is great for a lot of info on Teuvo.

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I think what direction RF takes in terms of that top-six wing will tell us a lot. He's already signaled that guys like Ladd are not what he's looking for. That is good--if he holds to it. And that's nothing against Andrew Ladd. I'm with everybody else: Letting him go was stupid, but trying to turn the clock back now would be doubly so, IMO.

 

Ladd wants a chance at another Cup. He also wants term. If he'd take a three-year deal, I'd say "go." But I think he's looking for five at least, and there's a big difference between doing even a five-year deal for Ladd and a six-year deal with Okposo. Their two-plus-year age difference looms large. A SIX-year deal for Okposo, signed this summer, would end a few months after he turns 34. FIVE years for Ladd, because his birthday comes in December, would end with Ladd at 36 and poised to turn 37. Both are "terminal" deals, yeah. But in terms of likely offensive production, a choice between a guy who should be in his prime for the full term of his deal and a guy who, all metrics indicate, will see declining output throughout his deal? Sorry Andrew, but that's an easy choice. 

 

What I'm MOST interested in seeing is whether the organization, at this point in its R-word process :), makes a move for Okposo, a deal which will be much harder to do because (1) everybody is going to pursue him, and (2) it's still a "terminal" (i.e., career-ending) deal--the likes of which we just got out from under.

 

Instead, we could trawl Edmonton or Colorado for already-contracted, 25-ish talent in exchange for prospects, picks, and, given this week's moves, a sign-and-trade with one Riley Nash. 

 

The latter makes sense in a lot of ways. (1) Those teams are not in our conference, so the dealing is easier; (2) both those teams are looking to move those sorts of guys; (3) bringing in already-contracted guys gives you more flexibility than a terminal deal with the NTC Okposo will no doubt demand; (4) BP wants to play Western-conference style hockey, and (5) Nash is from Alberta, and built for Western Conference hockey himself.

 

Murphy, McKeown, Nash and our #13 in the first round for Eberle or Hall and their first-round pick?? Hells yeah!

Edited by top-shelf-1

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On another front, and i don't intend this as any kind of insult because I'm guilty of these things too, but to sit back and read the angst many express on here regarding the resigning of Cam Ward is amusing to say the least. I mean the majority, if not the entirety, of readers here literally are swooning over RF's shrewdness in the trades he's made so far, yet we now question this signing, just a few days following his acknowledged COUP!! Seeing how Ron has steered our ship thru some rocky, post JR times, I for one will give him the latitude on all his decisions. We hopefully will be surprised.    

 

First. :sarcasmalert:

 

Let me amuse you some more.  I think RF made a big mistake giving Lack a two-year contract without him ever hitting the ice. 

 

Too bad the joke is on us. Ha ha. 

 

Cam didn't show up again until December.  Ha ha, the jokes on us again

 

Now we have the same two jokesters (barring another move) as a tandem this year.

 

Double the fun. 

 

I think GMRF "settled" for Cam, he even cherry-picked a stat for a justification.  That didn't give me an all warm and fuzzy feeling.  I hope it works out.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Murphy, McKeown, Nash and our #13 in the first round for Eberle or Hall and their first-round pick?? Hells yeah!

 

I dunno, top. Losing two right D is pretty rough, even if one is a prospect. Given the Hurricanes' (and basically every other team's, as far as I can tell) scarcity of RD, I'd give up one but not two.

 

Not that I can think of someone else who would be as attractive in place of McKeown to make a deal like that go through. Maybe an LD with a little more experience?

 

I can't say I hate the return the Hurricanes would get, if they could do this deal.

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Murphy, McKeown, Nash and our #13 in the first round for Eberle or Hall and their first-round pick?? Hells yeah!

I don't believe a good young defenseman, 2 meh players and a 13 pick gets us a top 6 forward and a high pick.

IMO, it would be Fleury, PDG or Nordstrom, 13th pick and a 4th rounder. Or Faulk and 13th for Hall and top pick.

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First. :sarcasmalert:

 

Let me amuse you some more.  I think RF made a big mistake giving Lack a two-year contract without him ever hitting the ice. 

 

Too bad the joke is on us. Ha ha. 

 

Cam didn't show up again until December.  Ha ha, the jokes on us again

 

Now we have the same two jokesters (barring another move) as a tandem this year.

 

Double the fun. 

 

I think GMRF "settled" for Cam, he even cherry-picked a stat for a justification.  That didn't give me an all warm and fuzzy feeling.  I hope it works out.

I have to wonder if we're not going to go after Niemi. Dallas is spending 10.4 million on goaltending between him and Lehtonen. And my understanding is that the plan was always for Lehtonen to be "the" guy, until his early-season injury forced Dallas to get Antti.

 

If we could duplicate their "accidental" model here - splitting work between two generally solid, if not spectacular, guys who can rise to the occasion, AND assuming Dallas is looking to cut its costs in the crease, they could take Eddie. And Niemi knows BP from Rockford.

 

Niemi's at 4.5 million. With Cam's new deal, we'd still be under what we spent last year on goaltending. Lehtonen's at 5.9. At that price, doesn't Lehtonen have to be "the" guy in Dallas? 

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I dunno, top. Losing two right D is pretty rough, even if one is a prospect. Given the Hurricanes' (and basically every other team's, as far as I can tell) scarcity of RD, I'd give up one but not two.

 

Not that I can think of someone else who would be as attractive in place of McKeown to make a deal like that go through. Maybe an LD with a little more experience?

 

I can't say I hate the return the Hurricanes would get, if they could do this deal.

Giving up two RD is tough, but Murphy's a former first-rounder who increasingly doesn't look to fit, and you gotta give up something to get back that 4th overall pick. Maybe if we include McKeown we don't have to give picks at all, and could re-fill the RD pipeline in the draft. 

 

Then again I'd gladly leave that 4th overall on the table, if Murph, Nash, and maybe our #21 first rounder brought back one of the EDM forwards. Which is possible.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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