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2016 Off-Season Talk

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There was a discussion about TB on another board.  Here's their scenario:

 

Tampa Bay currently only has $9.5 million in cap space remaining.  They have to sign Kucherov, Killorn, Nesterov, and Namestnikov.

 

Killorn's value should equal $2.75 million AAV (similar numbers as Lindholm)

Namestnikov's value should be $2.5 million AAV (slightly less numbers than Linholm)

Nesterov's value should be $1.5 million AAV (Sustr's contract)

Kucherov's value should be $7 million AAV (elite winger status)

 

Those numbers alone put them over the cap limit.  The sucky part for TB is next season, when they're going to have to give significant raises to Hedman, Johnson, Drouin, and Vasilevskiy with the only contract coming off the books being Bishop.

 

Hedman's likely to jump from $4 million AAV to $7 million AAV

Johnson's likely to jump from $3 million AAV to $5-6 million AAV

Drouin's likely to jump from $3 million AAV to $5-6 million AAV 

Vasilevskiy's likely to jump from his ELC contract to $4 million

 

 

Yzerman has done a good job up until this point of keeping a contender.  He kept Drouin when he was nearly forced to make a trade.  He didn't sell low on Bishop when the vultures were plucking at their cap problems.  And by hook or crook, he managed to sign Stamkos for significantly less than he would've got on the open market.  But his time is up.  There's just no way he's going to be able to keep all these players.  Even if he managed to get all his current RFA's signed this season, there's absolutely no room for his free agents next year, when the cap is probably going to go down.  At some point, and probably before the beginning of the season, they're going to have to give away Bishop.

 

A member of another board brought up a good point that teams would be stupid to NOT offer Kucherov an offer sheet that they know TB can't afford.  If i'm GMRF, i'd offer him $7-7.5 million AAV for 6 yrs, or i'm trying to pry Drouin away from them.  Kucherov would fit in perfectly in Carolina, as he's a near 70pt player and he plays right wing.

 

 

Sorry, i had to wipe the drool from my chin on the thought of Kucherov in Raleigh.  I don't see it happening by a long shot, but RF always keeps me (and pretty much everyone else) guessing.  I'd be content with helping them through their salary issues by taking Bishop off their hands...

 

Good points in general.

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That's all the evidence you need about GMRF wanting to trade Faulk.  Easily could have gotten it done for Hall.

 

I think the take on Faulk is that defensively he's just another middle of the road defensive defenseman nowhere close to the equal of Hall via a trade.  Obviously Edmonton saw more upside in Larson than they did in Faulk because I am willing to bet Ronnie had a conversation or two with Edmonton to find out what it might take. So much for getting a top six forward from Edmonton. 

 

Free agency here we come...

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Is Kucherov worth a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd or 2 1sts, 2nd, and a 3rd? The first scenario is 7.0-7.3 and the later is 7.3 to 7.5 offer sheets in your scenario. IMO the first offer sheet is tolerable but TB would match. I'm not ok with hurting our depth 4-5 years down the road for a 7.3+ offer sheet.

Also add Palat to the list of re-signees for TB after this coming season. The list was impossible to overcome but adding Palat to the mix makes it ridiculous. I don't see TB trading any of the upcoming RFAs as he wants one more cup run.

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Maybe GMRF offers 2 high 2017 picks for Kucherov, & a bad contract like the Chicago deal???

 

Could even be Bishop & Kucherov for Lack or Ward Plus our 1st, & NYR 2nd in 2017 draft...Just spit balling.

 

A trade offer to help them with their cap is better than an offer sheet. 

 

Maybe Callahan, & Kucherov for Fluery, & NYR 2nd, or our 1st, & NYR 2nd. The need cap space for next year too.

 

Point is there is a cap deal to be made for GMRF & TB...Ron pick up the phone & call Yzerman!

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There was a lot of shopping of Bishop during the draft, Calgary getting Elliott killed any chance of the Bolt moving him. More than likely Bishop will be traded by the trade deadline next year or walk, possibly to Las Vegas. Also Bishop has been bitten by the injury bug of late. Him going down in the ECF possibly doomed their chance to make it pass the Pens. Why pay now when you could possibly get for free later?

 

 

IN RON WE TRUST!

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What would you guys give for Rick Nash 30% retained? That'd be about $5.5m for two seasons.

 

Over the past 3 seasons he ranks 10th in 5v5 points per 60 mins (2.31). NYR seem desperate to get rid of his contract so we could get away with another fleecing. I think he is definitely capable of putting up 50 points on our team.

 

I think there could be something to this. Of course, it all depends on the asking price.

 

I feel like if anything like this was going to happen, it would have happened during the draft; but I could be wrong.

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Here's what I think happens: Franchise sits the first few days...maybe even two weeks...out of the fray.  He lets the big names go in what will end up being bidding wars between teams wanting to land the big fish.  Hell, I think he may even wait til late July before starting to make moves with the leftovers and the cap-space discards...because, by then, the bigger teams will have spent themselves out of the cap and he will get to cherry-pick the leftovers, and get a decent discount in the process.

 

That is the most likely scenario for sure. With Stamkos out of the picture, the really elite forwards are Okposo and Eriksson, and maybe Ladd and Lucic, and Backes if you want to count two way and center. 

 

There are others, but if you value pure offense, you are looking at Okposo and Eriksson.

 

Lucic just seems like the most outspoken about where he'll go, and we are not even on his farthest radar screen.

 

Backes is 32, and could be in decline. We need a third line center or a clear 1C and he's not really seeing himself as either of those probably. Now, that said, the guy had a bad year last year and still put up 45 points and was #8 on the team at plus 4. IF we could get him on a decent deal to come in and be our 3C, we would be in pretty darned good shape, because as it is, or if we pick up a winger, we are going to need to have tryouts for 3C among our wingers. This would give us 3 solid, proven centers, all of whom play defense too.

 

Ladd, would bring leadership and at least 45 points probably. (He scored 65 points 2 years ago). I saw a guess the the Islanders pay him $6.25/year for 4 years. Seems high, but that's UFA. No indication that he is interested in a return to Carolina who dealt him when he was still quite young, but  4 years is less risky and might be a decent time frame for our other forwards to really be ready.

 

Okposo is going to get way overpaid, and while it would be nice in a way, and he brings some things we'd like to have, is he really a Peter's type? Not particularly cerebral, needing to learn a new system and play within it. Not particularly fast. He is going to be too expensive. Due to age and points produced he is going to get way overpaid and Francis is not going to pay a lot for this muffler.

 

Eriksson. I like the guy. He would be my dream list guy with the caveat that he is getting too old. The Bruins offered him 4 years, and he wants more term, and that is the rub. He put up 63 points and 30 goals last year. Last year that would have been our most productive forward by a lot. And he's a plus 56 in his career. He's put up 70 points several times.

 

But if Okposo and Eriksson are now seen at the big prizes with Stamkos gone, then they will be overpaid by someone. And so far Francis has avoided that like the plague.

 

So, I agree. He will throw an offer at some or all of Okposo, Erickson, Ladd, Backes, but we won't get them. He will let the crazy time settle down, then look around and see who's left. If he doesn't like what's left, he'll try to pry a guy from a cap strapped team.

 

But with all deference to Top, I think we do need another guy. The Yutes need to force their way on the team because they're that good, not because we have a slot open and a hope. One more guy does that, if we assume Aho is what he seems to be. But that's just me. While Francis has said he's looking for that, I do think he'll only do it if the deal is right (see below).

 

One more proven NHL top 6 forward and PDG, McGinn, Tolchinksy, Gauthier, Roy et all can compete to show that one of them won't be denied. Though I put PDG on the 4th line (with Nash and Bickell, in my world), and that line can score.

 

BUT that's GM remkin. Putting PDG on the 4th is not really slotting him to his skill set.  I do think that GMRF may be thinking that the ultimate fall back is that PDG could be a legit 3rd liner. He is a scorer, and has some skill. So that will let GMRF take a somewhat calm approach to this whole thing, and stay the course to find a deal that is the "right deal" that "makes sense". 

I would argue that PDG on the 4th would allow depth, and he would frequently slide up as needed.

Edited by remkin

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I think there could be something to this. Of course, it all depends on the asking price.

I feel like if anything like this was going to happen, it would have happened during the draft; but I could be wrong.

Nash's salary is backloaded at 8 million this season and 8.2 next season. If they kept 30% of the cap hit we would relieve them of 5.6 million of cap space. Give back their 2nd and a future pick of some level?

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TSN said they are adding Landeskog to their "trade bait" board. Ava need defense help.

Now THAT is a player I would consider offering up Faulk for...but they need to throw in a pick or prospect too.

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Francis, keeping us guessing...

 

Gotta be something else coming...

 

I agree, but what? We didn't need the cap space. Seems like it's just clearing out a space for one of the yutes...I hope that's not it though.

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That is a shocker. Really surprised someone wouldn't take on atleast half of his cap hit.

GMRF really believes Fleury will get in this year and/or something is brewing.

Edited by gocanes0506

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Maybe we are going to make a play for a big dollar UFA.  We save $1million overall but I think his remaining $2 mil cap hit is spread over two years so...is that right?

 

Something is up with all the cap space we already have

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I count 19 players that are likely to be in Raleigh on opening day unless they are traded or beat out by a prospect.  I think we are like 8.5ish below the floor.  We wouldn't have made this move without a plan to add salary...I'm now much more interested in tomorrow!!!

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Sure explains the near-total lack of news about his status. I wonder if his injury was a factor, but agree that it feels like we're making a play.

 

Or bringing in Seids??

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Maybe we are going to make a play for a big dollar UFA.  We save $1million overall but I think his remaining $2 mil cap hit is spread over two years so...is that right?

 

Something is up with all the cap space we already have

Perhaps RF thinks one of the yutes is ready to fill the spot. Who knows how Wiz would of been since the ACL injury.

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Either we're being total cheap skates or this is space cleared to make a move or moves via FA.

 

Truth be told...  I would be utterly shocked if we brought in a top tier forward.  I think the top 6 is set.

Edited by bluedevil58

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