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I really hope McGinn puts it together.  He looked bad last year (to me) but prospects that aren't ready usually do.  With that said I do believe that the window of opportunity isn't what it was over the JR years.

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I think the premise is flawed. Comparing Tolchinsky to last year's roster dodges the real issue: Can he make the current one? Great skills, no question. But Aho and TT are the ones pushing him down the depth chart. If he's at a crossroads - and I tend to agree that it's too early to say that - the way we're building is the reason why.

 

If he wants to play in the top nine, I don't think anything less than Marty/Gaudreau production gets it done. But he could become that fourth-line energy guy with the skills to provide scoring and get spotted on the PP. 

 

I think you think I'm making a premise that I'm not actually trying to make. :P

 

In a previous post I mentioned that I think the way the Smurf makes the Canes (if he ever does) is by tearing it up in Charlotte and then making the most of his chance when he gets called up due to injury or slump.  I was pointing out his superior puck skills as I felt it only fair to mention his greatest asset in contrast to his biggest obstacle (size) when discussing his chances to progress to the NHL.  The reason I picked last year's team as a comparison to highlight Tolchinsky's puck skills is that I have no idea how the new additions rate in that area.  I'd be surprised if any of the new additions are better puck handlers than Tolchinsky, but I just don't know.

 

Which is not to say that some of the new additions aren't stronger in other areas, and some most likely overall.  But the reason I'm not writing off Tolchinsky's chance is that I think he presents the possibility of being able to generate offense in a way that not many other Canes can. Skinner being the lone "current" exception; we'll see about the new guys. 

 

I don't see Aho and TT as competition for Tolchinsky as I see them probably already penciled in. I see the Smurf's competition this year (for a chance when it arises) as players like Saarela, Zykov, Derek Ryan, and McGinn.  No idea how it will play out, but I'm excited to find out. 

 

Then, as rem pointed out, down the road we have even more prospects entering the competition.  But we also have even more spots potentially opening up. A couple of years from now how many of Stalberg, Stempniak, McClement, and Bickell will still be with us?  Or, let's say a player like Tolchinsky or Saarela continues to progress and shows he can score big time at the NHL level.  If we become deep enough, might that even present the Canes a dilemma when it comes to players like Nestrasil or Nordstrom?  Solid all around, but if you've got another player that might put up twice as many points (as long as the other guy is at least reasonably responsible defensively), don't you have to at least think about how you want to allocate roster spots?      

 

To my mind there are still a lot of questions surrounding this Canes organization, but at least they're mostly positive in nature, something we haven't had in a while. 

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So this whole thing got me wondering how old most guys are that break into the NHL as rookies

 

There are better graphs on the link: and definitions and explanations:

 

http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/RookieAgeDistribution.php

 

But

 

18: 254

19: 614

20: 1386

21: 1171

22: 1121

23: 923

24: 648

25: 450

26: 284

 

Clearly the prime year is 20, but really a lot of 21, 22, and even 23, though dropping, and by 24 it's getting a bit late. It also skews younger for forwards.

Edited by remkin

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One on hand this is interesting but let's face it this includes players that get a call up (including goalies) and never sniff the league again.

 

If anything it's a data point that McGinn (age 22) and Tolchinsky (age 21) are at the proverbial crossroads that some argue doesn't exist. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I really hope McGinn puts it together.  He looked bad last year (to me) but prospects that aren't ready usually do.  With that said I do believe that the window of opportunity isn't what it was over the JR years.

 

 

He had his moments but yeah, he often looked out of place.  That said, the same thing could be said for PDG.  But PDG stuck where McGinn couldn't, and with 3 opportunities.  It could very well be the defensive liability - going -14 in 21 games, projected to a -55 over 82 games, is quite gaudy no matter what ones opinion is of the +/- stat.  But there could very well be something else Peters (no apostrophe) wanted to see that he didn't.  Either way, whether it's defensive play or something else, there's something missing in McGinn's game and you're right - the window of opportunity isn't what it once was.  If he doesn't make the best of his chances this year, i'll be ready to write him off.  And i might go so far as to say if he doesn't make the best of camp...

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Fans always point to the same one or two players that are the outliers in these things when defending their stance. On late bloomers, it's always Tim Thomas. On smallish players, it's St. Louis and Johnson. When everybody names the same one or two guys, it really is an outlier situation.

That being said, Tolchinsky and McGinn need to make their mark soon or they will be packing a bag for Europe. It may not be a crossroads, but yeah, it is. I don't think Francis is going to be big on hauling around dead weight.

Edited by super_dave_1

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One on hand this is interesting but let's face it this includes players that get a call up (including goalies) and never sniff the league again.

 

If anything it's a data point that McGinn (age 22) and Tolchinsky (age 21) are at the proverbial crossroads that some argue doesn't exist. 

 

 

Yop.  But also keep in mind this is about debuts.  How many of those rookies who debut at 20 stick at 20?  Like you said many never come back, but even in those who do, i'd wager to say a hefty percentage don't actually 'become NHL players' for another 2-3 years.  That said, 'window of opportunity'...

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I think it's fair to say that we all agree that Tochinshki and McGinn are in their key year. What they have shown so far is not going to make the NHL this year, so both of them will have to find another level. And one key difference between now and the past for prospects is that it's not just a few names, none of which are really that good: Dalpe, Boychuk, Bowman....now there is a genuine load of guys pushing up from just below these guy's age range too. That will close their window for good if they don't do something this year.

 

One other thing is system. One of the reasons below the surface, why this team might surprise, and start better than usual, is that the majority of the team now knows, has bought in, and keeps improving with Peter's system. Guys like TT and Aho will have to overcome a relative lack of this through sheer talent, and playing with a full team that knows it. But guys like Tolchinski and McGinn after full seasons playing the same system in Charlotte would have a leg up on some of the younger, newer names further down the list. That too will close with time.

 

I do think that both these guys have a greater chance of not making the jump than making it. I just think that they are still of an age that they can also keep improving. McGinn, who's plus-minus had been so egregious that it had to be saying something, improved that a lot in Charlotte last year.

 

In the end the fact that guys like McGinn and Tolchinski better break out now or others will step into those spots is a really good thing for the organization.

Edited by remkin

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When you talk about age for breaking into the NHL I think you've also got to take into account the developmental philosophy and depth of the parent club.   Nestrasil turned 24 during his first NHL season (54 games).  Nordstrom got just a sniff (16 games) the season he turned 22, 38 games the season he turned 23, and his first full season wasn't until he turned 24.  But Nesty came from the Wings and Nordy from the 'Hawks.

 

Bottom line for me: given his skill set, I think Tolchinsky's still got a reasonable shot if he continues his improvement.  I see McGinn's window as being much less narrow given the ratio of his size to his style of play.  

 

Oh, and if we're talking about narrowing windows, Zykov fits right in there with Tolchinsky and McGinn.  He's also 21yo, and from what I can tell on paper, his development to date is actually less impressive than Tolchinsky's. 

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Always interesting hearing Peters. Interview on Yahoo:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/hurricanes-coach-on-teravainen-goalie-issues-podcast-155003675.html?nhp=1

 

Just great also knowing he's been getting great coaching experience at World's too.

 

Key quotes:

 

"We're going to let our young guys evolve".

 

"...Aho is going to make our team."

 

"TT-Lindholm-Aho is a line." They can all play center and TT can play all three positions.

 

"Got to find a way to get off to a good start. Need our specialty teams good to go from the jump".

 


Also interesting that Peters and Tulsky have a direct line back and forth on analytics.

 

And both interviewers, Marek and Wyshysnki both mentioned a few times, "He's a smart guy".

 

Also, there is pretty wide consensus among people who have shown an awareness about our upside (ie not just national types who really aren't following things here), that our goaltending situation a major question. No big news there I guess, but I can't help feeling good about the youth advancing across the board, but crossing my fingers that we get good goaltending.

Edited by remkin

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Also, there is pretty wide consensus among people who have shown an awareness about our upside (ie not just national types who really aren't following things here), that our goaltending situation a major question. No big news there I guess, but I can't help feeling good about the youth advancing across the board, but crossing my fingers that we get good goaltending.

 

 

Goaltending is where the rebuild is hitting hardest.  The defense made crazy strides last season and looks to take a couple more steps this year.  Forward development lags behind a bit, but all but the most-cynical of us see the potential and the steps being taken.  The potential is there in net as well, but it's all just making its way to Charlotte.  Ward and Lack are both pretty much 'stopgaps' until Nedel and Alts (or a surprise climb from the depth chart below them) are ready to make the jump.  So while most of us feel good about the defense and about the near future of the forwards, we're not there yet with the goaltenders.  Like you, i'm crossing my fingers.

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. . .

 

Now we've got Johnny Gadreau; not built like a terminator, but still an elusive sniper who doesn't get hit.

 

 

I have to admit I haven't watched him play but looking at his numbers, I'd have to agree he is the current alpha-smurf.

 

Gaudreau seems like a different creature entirely.  Players like St Louis, Matts Zuccarello, and Gerbe are all short but built like stoves. I still maintain that a 5'7" 180lb build is better suited to hockey than a 5'11" 180lb build.  But Gaudreau is listed at 5'9", 157lbs.  I don't know which is more impressive, the fact that he's played 159 out of 164 games over the past 2 season without getting squished, or the fact that he put up 30 goals and 78 points last season.

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I would add from the Peters interview that Peters does not see a sophomore slump for our young D at all. In fact he sees them improving, that the game will slow down for them and they will make plays this year that they couldn't last year.

 

He also thinks that we can tighten the D in front of Cam and get the puck out quicker.

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This team is sooo young. Every one of these young guys is subject to being run at by the opposition because the Canes have NO-ONE to push back. Lindholm got slapped around like a redheaded step child last season and all the Canes on the ice just watched and did nothing. No surprise he had zero confidence last season playing against men - no-one had his back the entire season. Whats Peters going to do?  Send Hainsey over the boards to fight? That will really make the other team respect us. We could have maybe got David Backes, but he's too old everyone says...well someone has to watch over the flock of Canes chicks while they grow and as of right now if I am rough customer on another team playing the Canes it would be easy to intimidate or beat up any Cane and no-one on the roster would do a thing about it or if they did they too would probably get their face filled in. The Canes need to step out of their boring fun, family environment comfort zone and find a couple of players with a % of snarl and reputation because right now its 100% meow and meow doesn't get you far in this league. Kane would sell tickets pulling his weight doing some nasty work while being a 20+ goal scorer. He would help some of the kiddies in the locker room gain some confidence to play like men. Comparing him to Manziel, an addict desperately in need of help, who's professional and private life is a total train wreck, is a ridiculous comment.

Edited by 5 4 Fighting

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In a previous post I mentioned that I think the way the Smurf makes the Canes (if he ever does) is by tearing it up in Charlotte and then making the most of his chance when he gets called up due to injury or slump. [snip]

 

I don't see Aho and TT as competition for Tolchinsky as I see them probably already penciled in. I see the Smurf's competition this year (for a chance when it arises) as players like Saarela, Zykov, Derek Ryan, and McGinn.  No idea how it will play out, but I'm excited to find out. 

I wasn't replying to a previous post. :P

 

You compared Tolchinsky's skills to "everyone on last year's roster not named Skinner." That's the premise I referred to as flawed.

 

AHLers earn roster slots in camp, and for my money, the only wing open right now is the one Bickell is projecting to on the fourth line. I think there's a very real possibility he doesn't make the roster and is bought out.

 

You might not see Aho and TT as Tolchinsky's competition, but both project to the top nine this season. Therefore, assuming the org sticks to its stated preference that highly skilled guys are not stuck on the fourth line, Tolchinsky must beat out one of those two, or Nordy, Nesty, Skinner, or Stempniak.

 

Now, let's look at your hypothetical that one of those guys goes down during the season. Do you really think Tolchinksy (who I refuse to call Smurf until Murphy actually hits someone ), gets the call? A guy in year two of his ELC, without a single regular-season NHL game, gets that top-nine slot, over PDG, Ryan, Brown, or McGinn - all of whom already have skated during the regular season at this level?

 

The AHL is the place for Tolchinsky this year. Let him get to PPG stats down there in his ELC's second year. We only signed Stalberg for a year and Stemp for two. Next year's camp looks like his best shot at cracking the NHL roster.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I think it's fair to say that we all agree that Tochinshki and McGinn are in their key year. 

McGinn yes, he goes RFA next summer. Tolchinsky is entering year two of his ELC. I think he gets the full year in CLT and that with expansion, next year's camp will be key.

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I wasn't replying to a previous post. :P

 

You compared Tolchinsky's skills to "everyone on last year's roster not named Skinner." That's the premise I referred to as flawed.

 

AHLers earn roster slots in camp, and for my money, the only wing open right now is the one Bickell is projecting to on the fourth line. I think there's a very real possibility he doesn't make the roster and is bought out.

 

You might not see Aho and TT as Tolchinsky's competition, but both project to the top nine this season. Therefore, assuming the org sticks to its stated preference that highly skilled guys are not stuck on the fourth line, Tolchinsky must beat out one of those two, or Nordy, Nesty, Skinner, or Stempniak.

 

Now, let's look at your hypothetical that one of those guys goes down during the season. Do you really think Tolchinksy (who I refuse call Smurf until Murphy actually hits someone ), gets the call? A guy in year two of his ELC, without a single regular-season NHL game, gets that top-nine slot, over PDG, Ryan, Brown, or McGinn - all of whom already have skated during the regular season at this level?

 

The AHL is the place for Tolchinsky this year. Let him get to PPG stats in his ELC's second year. We only signed Stalberg for a year and Stemp for two. Next year's camp looks like his best shot at cracking the NHL roster.

 

He actually had two games last year in the late part of the season and recorded an assist on a Faulk goal. Looked really good both games playing within the system and was very good in the OT session. Did miss his penalty shot, though. He was not good in the first half of his debut AHL season, but he came on late in the year to place fourth on the Checkers in points. If he continues to progress like last year, he'll be knocking on the door sooner than later.

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Kane would sell tickets pulling his weight doing some nasty work while being a 20+ goal scorer. He would help some of the kiddies in the locker room gain some confidence to play like men. 

Assuming he's not in jail. I like Kane's edge, but I think he's basically Steve Downie. He doesn't know where the line is, and isn't all that interested in knowing. I don't think any player like that gets a slot under Bill Peters. 

 

Your post overlooks that Faulk was out much of last year and that our (much larger) D will mature. We will never be a drop-'em-first, ask-questions-later team, but the size we've added and the confidence that comes with winning will get guys playing for - and standing up for - each other.

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Assuming he's not in jail. I like Kane's edge, but I think he's basically Steve Downie. He doesn't know where the line is, and isn't all that interested in knowing. I don't think any player like that gets a slot under Bill Peters. 

 

Your post overlooks that Faulk was out much of last year and that our (much larger) D will mature. We will never be a drop-'em-first, ask-questions-later team, but the size we've added and the confidence that comes with winning will get guys playing for - and standing up for - each other.

 

I agree with this completely. If he was not the problem child off ice he seems to be, he'd be a great addition on the ice. But if he wasn't a problem, he wouldn't be available, either.

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He actually had two games last year in the late part of the season and recorded an assist on a Faulk goal.

Thanks MinJa, forgot about those two appearances. Still, I don't think this is his year. With his contract and others, and expansion, I think he gets his shot in 2017-18. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Thanks MinJa, forgot about those two appearances. Still, I don't think this is his year. With his contract and others, and expansion, I think he gets his shot in 2017-18. 

 

 

Like everyone else here i'm just one of those punters on the interwebs, but i tend to agree with this.  I do think this is the year for McGinn, however.  Unless he 'wows' the brass, i don't see him being retained at the end of his contract.

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I agree with this completely. If he was not the problem child off ice he seems to be, he'd be a great addition on the ice. But if he wasn't a problem, he wouldn't be available, either.

Geeez, I wouldn't touch the guy with a ten foot pole. He is always in the news and not in a good way.  He isn't doing anything to clean up his act. http://sabres.buffalonews.com/2016/07/27/women-at-chippewa-bar-detail-aggressive-action-by-sabres-evander-kane/

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I do wonder a bit about the toughness quotient. It really seems that Peters is on the cutting edge of "fighting is going away, and we're just not going to worry about it". But someone will still probably have to drop the gloves at some point, and teams probably will try to intimidate us. I still get the feeling that it is just a far smaller deal than it used to be.

 

Another thing is the PP. I doubt teams take a lot of penalties against us if our PP is hitting 25% of the time. In fact if we were, it would be good if they did tale more.

 

I wonder if there will come an NHL team that just pretty much refuses to engage in fights at some point.

Edited by remkin

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