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Good stuff on the regression coastal.  Given "traditional hockey thinking", I think you nailed it when you said no correlation is interesting in and of itself

 

And I think your point about looking at hitting versus wins across time would be interesting.  It ties in with rem's post about styles of play.  My suspicion is that you'd see that hitting has declined in relevance since they started enforcing the rules more strictly after the 2004-5 lockout and speed has become more and more important.

 

It really is.  If I get some time I'll go back in time and follow up.  What we don't know is if the correlation has always been weak.  I suspect not depending on how far back you go.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I'm pretty sure that there is a confounder on hits in that the team without the puck and the team that is being beaten tends to hit more.

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bad-luck-schleprock_yahoo-100273773-orig

 

edit for a bonus image...

 

untitled-7.png

 

 

Ok allow me to post what I have been reading on these boards the past few weeks,

 

1. No top end elite forwards.

 

2. Questionable goal tending?

 

3. No bonafide top line.

 

4. Banking on a guy to produce on a regular basis even though he has yet to play a single NHL game.

 

5. Playoffs here we come!!!

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Hey nothing wrong with dissent. Gotta have the resident skeptic.

 

I agree with all 5 points. Especially the last one!

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I'm pretty sure that there is a confounder on hits in that the team without the puck and the team that is being beaten tends to hit more.

 

Well it's only one team, but LA is often a leader in both Corsi and hits, so that would confound your confounder. Which makes one wonder...how the hell do they hit so much when they have the puck? I've often wondered about the assumption that more shots equals more possession. I wonder if anyone has actually tracked possession and shots to see if they do in fact correlate.

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This team has issues, as do all teams.  I ask this.  Is this team (on paper) better or worse than it was last year?  I say better.  The young defense is a year older.  The young forwards are a year older.  Both of these groups should still be ramping up to their most productive years.  A proven NHL skilled player was added in TT and should be a legit top 6 guy.  There is great hope for Aho being a contributor.  Goaltending is a treading water issue (maybe bailing water issue), but I can't see it as a step back from last year.  The only real contributors missing from last year are EStaal (honestly a 3rd line player at this time) and Versteeg who couldn't land a job on this side of the world. 

 

With all that being said, this team should be better than last years team that finished 10 pts out of a playoff spot.  Is this year's team 10 pts better than last year?  Could be.  I get being cautiously optimistic, and that's the boat I'm in.  I just refuse to be miserably pessimistic in August 2016 when things look better than they did in August 2015.  Maybe I'm Pollyanna, but it is more pleasant than being Debbie Downer.  As for complaining about the lack of high end talent, I agree that we need some, but where was GMRF supposed to get them this summer?  Don't answer that question without considering the expansion draft.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Hey nothing wrong with dissent. Gotta have the resident skeptic.

 

I agree with all 5 points. Especially the last one!

 

 

Oh mark my words.  I am in the process of moving into a bigger house in Chapel Hill.  If number 5 happens all on this board are invited to my house for the first away playoff game.  There will be beer, there will be liquor and most importantly, there will be tea and strumpets.

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Oh mark my words.  I am in the process of moving into a bigger house in Chapel Hill.  If number 5 happens all on this board are invited to my house for the first away playoff game.  There will be beer, there will be liquor and most importantly, there will be tea and strumpets.

 

Sounds good. Not so much tea though.

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 There are too many IFs and history has told us that when this team has a lot of "IFs" going into the season then it usally does not result in a playoff berth.  

 

This is the only line I take issue with.  This team ALWAYS has a lot of Ifs.

 

Here are some predictions from 2005-2006:

 

"Carolina — In my estimation, there are only seven solid bets in the East. The eighth playoff spot is going to be a dogfight from the next four or five teams, and I believe a Southeast team may sneak in due to the high number of games they play against one another. Carolina's a club everyone is picking to be awful, but I see three solid forward lines and an improved blueline with the addition of Oleg Tverdovsky, Frantisek Kaberle, Mike Commodore and Andrew Hutchinson. Coach Peter Laviolette led this team to a near .500 record in a half season, so if Martin Gerber can hold up as the starter, they may surprise some."

 

"And now, after carefully observing the pre-season, and with devout

respect to the unknown, I present to you my final-standing and playoff

predictions for the 2005-06 NHL campaign.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Ottawa Senators [108 points]

2. Philadelphia Flyers [105 points]

3. Tampa Bay Lightning [102 points]

4. New Jersey Devils [99 points]

5. Boston Bruins [94 points]

6. Pittsburgh Penguins [93 points]

7. Atlanta Thrashers [90 points]

8. Toronto Maple Leafs [89 points]

9. Florida Panthers [87 points]

10. New York Islanders [83 points]

11. Montreal Canadiens [80 points]

12. Buffalo Sabres [78 points]

13. New York Rangers [70 points]

14. Carolina Hurricanes [62 points]

15. Washington Capitals [55 points]   "

 

 

 

 

"With the preseason done I'm ready to finish up with some predictions:

Eastern Conference

1) Tampa Bay - By no means are they the best team in the East. The only reason they'll finish first is because they play in the weakest division and because of the weighted schedules (playing more games against division rivals) they get extra games to beat up on cellar-dwellers Washington and Carolina which will translate into more points.

2) Philly - Jersey will give them a bit of a run for the top spot in the Atlantic but it's the Flyers spot to lose. 

3) Ottawa - The offense is overwhelming, the defense solid and the goaltending will be adequate. They play in the deepest division in the East where it's possible four of the five teams will make the playoffs and that's the only reason they won't finish first in the East. This is the best team in the Eastern Conference.

4) Boston - This is a damn good regular season team and if they ever get Boynton signed they'll be that much better. How they fare in the playoffs is another matter entirely and I expect a quick exit again this year. 

5) New Jersey - Losing your best two defensemen is not easy to deal with but they still have the greatest goalie to ever play the game (yeah, that's right all you haters) and that alone means they'll be a contender.

6) Montreal - A fast, young team that should really take advantage of all the rule changes this year. I wish they hadn't sent Latendresse back to the QMJHL.

7) Atlanta - They only end up in the playoffs at all if the manage to sign Kovalchuk. With him they have a pretty potent line up that should have no problem putting the puck in the net.

8) Pittsburgh - This team isn't nearly as good as the hype surrounding them. They are not a Cup contender. They are a team on the playoff bubble at best. I also see people making insane predictions that Crosby will get 80-100 points this season and I think that's not too realistic, especially if Mario doesn't remain healthy. I see him more in the 60-80 range.

9) Toronto - This is a playoff team if Lindros, Allison and Belfour stay healthy. I doubt that will happen.

10) Florida - This is another team that could squeeze into the playoffs if all the dominos fall their way. They have possibly the best goalie in the league. 

11) NYI - A great young goalie and a few guys who could score a bunch of goals. I don't see this team doing enough to get into the playoffs though. 

12) Buffalo - Toughest division in the East + young and inexperienced line up = no playoffs this year.

13) NYR - At least they have Jagr and he should have a return to form with the new rules.

14) Carolina - They shouldn't be as bad as the Caps. They will really suck though.

15) Washington - Is anyone not picking the Caps to finish dead last in the East (and overall for that matter)? I didn't think so. On the bright side Ovechkin will be neck and neck with Crosby in leading all offensive rookie stats. He'd probably win too if it weren't for the overwhelming hype for Sid The Kid. It might help if he had some NHL caliber players on his team as well.

Eastern Conference Playoff winner: Ottawa

 

 

 

 

This is only the first 3 from 2005-2006 I found in Google.  You can read forever, but you won't find many (if any) predictions that Carolina will do great.

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Well it's only one team, but LA is often a leader in both Corsi and hits, so that would confound your confounder. Which makes one wonder...how the hell do they hit so much when they have the puck? I've often wondered about the assumption that more shots equals more possession. I wonder if anyone has actually tracked possession and shots to see if they do in fact correlate.

My thoughts exactly MinJa. I think it's entirely possible to play a hard-hitting game, have low possession stats and still put up 40 shots a night. In fact, I know it is. It's how the Flyers won two Cups in the mid-70s--which also supports how the game has changed. That team had maybe three "fast" skaters, MacLeish, Barber and--okay, TWO fast skaters. But the other teams, even elite ones, were so intimidated, even with the puck, and the goaltending was so good, and the Flyers' PP was so deadly, it didn't matter. I am really glad those days are over, but LA is the 21st-Century version of that style of play, and it's paid off for them.

 

I don't think the Canes ever take physicality to LA's level, but then again, you never know. BP and Sutter are both Alberta boys, and physical play is the "wild west" convention. Lord knows our elite/potentially elite guys' games would benefit from guys like Hanifin, Slavin, Faulk, Pesce, Fleury, and even Jordan, Nesty, and Nordstrom throwing their weight around.  

Edited by top-shelf-1

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3. No bonafide top line.

This is the one that speaks to the difference in attitude, for me. BD sees no bonafide top line, I see THREE possible "top" lines--and a coach who really doesn't care how any of them are labeled.

 

It makes no difference whatsoever what share of our 230 goals comes from which line, or for that matter, from O versus D. All that matters is that they go in the net. BP and RF have built a team with talent within both groups that can contribute scoring. BP has preached balanced scoring since the day he arrived, so the last thing the lack of a "top line" should be is surprising.

 

If I'm the opposition, three solid lines, a shutdown fourth, and a bench full of D with offensive upside scares me a whole lot more, going into a game, than knowing my odds of winning improve if I only have to shut down three players.  

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Well it's only one team, but LA is often a leader in both Corsi and hits, so that would confound your confounder. Which makes one wonder...how the hell do they hit so much when they have the puck? I've often wondered about the assumption that more shots equals more possession. I wonder if anyone has actually tracked possession and shots to see if they do in fact correlate.

 

Well, actually there is a fairly good correlation between Corsi and Shots For, which I would have expected.  This data is the 2015-16 season including all 30 teams.

 

Corsi considers shots that missed the net and those that were blocked and I think that's where "possession" comes in. 

 

If you continue to take shots ( i.e. only shots that are on net) beyond those that miss or were blocked your team is possessing the puck through active forechecking, cycling, the D jumping up - all those things and more that made the Canes a good Corsi team last year (8th in league).

 

The big gap fell between "possession" and goals scored, which was pretty obvious to those paying attention.  The Canes were below the middle of the pack at shots generated per 60 minutes (18th in league), and had a difficult time turning those shots they were getting into goals (26th in the league in GF/60).

 

Yeah, we need more skill, to makeup that gap.  BUT, consider this, the Canes already have the possession numbers, we just need to find those goals.  Bottom dwellers are trying to get possession up AND goals up.  The Canes are not bottom dwellers.  And they shouldn't be projected to be a bottom dwelling team (bluedevil) - at least on paper and based on last season and the additions the team has made. 

 

 

fNM6O3.jpg

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I also think what gets undersold in these more skeptical opinions is the many more options Bill Peters now has on the PP, during 3 on 3 overtime, and shootouts - an area we woefully need to improve. 

 

Personally, that's where I think the biggest improvement will come from - the special teams, overtime, and shootouts.  You don't have to score 60 points to help the team make a marked improvement.  We've got added skill to bring down in these areas of the game.  We just switched out Gerbe and Nash for TT and SeaBass.

 

I also think Bill Peters needs to get this team over the October hump.  I worry about this more than just about anything.  I have faith he will, but its time this problem goes away.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I also think Bill Peters needs to get this team over the October hump.  I worry about this more than just about anything.  I have faith he will, but its time this problem goes away.

 

This is the first hurdle for the team to get over.  It's more of a high jump than a hurdle.

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I also think Bill Peters needs to get this team over the October hump.  I worry about this more than just about anything.  I have faith he will, but its time this problem goes away.

Totally agree with this, and will take it a step further: The team needs to tell the NHL to just schedule its October the same as it does for every other team, and if the State Fair doesn't like it, the State Fair can go straight to--uh, the bathroom of its gender at birth.

 

That the Canes annually miss an outsize marketing opportunity - a great chance to build their brand and hockey more generally in this non-traditional market, and to juxtapose it against the decidedly non-hockey backdrop of one of the state's great economic engines, when people from all over the state descend on Raleigh - is just a crime.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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This new password thing is awful.  I have to log onto NHL.com in order for me to be able to log onto here.  Every time I want to post here i have to log into NHL.com first!  There will come a point in time where you need a star forward to really shine and bring you in some big time goals.  Every team that is successful has at the very least 1.  Most of the time they have 2 and they're centers.  I like 3 2nd lines but I think the lack of a star forward is really going to hurt us in some of those tight 1 goal games.  I question anybody who thinks that this is not needed in today's game.  As long as this team makes the playoffs I am fine with whatever.

Edited by bluedevil58

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Well, actually there is a fairly good correlation between Corsi and Shots For, which I would have expected.  This data is the 2015-16 season including all 30 teams.

 

Corsi considers shots that missed the net and those that were blocked and I think that's where "possession" comes in. 

 

If you continue to take shots ( i.e. only shots that are on net) beyond those that miss or were blocked your team is possessing the puck through active forechecking, cycling, the D jumping up - all those things and more that made the Canes a good Corsi team last year (8th in league).

 

The big gap fell between "possession" and goals scored, which was pretty obvious to those paying attention.  The Canes were below the middle of the pack at shots generated per 60 minutes (18th in league), and had a difficult time turning those shots they were getting into goals (26th in the league in GF/60).

 

Yeah, we need more skill, to makeup that gap.  BUT, consider this, the Canes already have the possession numbers, we just need to find those goals.  Bottom dwellers are trying to get possession up AND goals up.  The Canes are not bottom dwellers.  And they shouldn't be projected to be a bottom dwelling team (bluedevil) - at least on paper and based on last season and the additions the team has made. 

 

 

fNM6O3.jpg

 

I think you missed my point. I know Corsi and shots for are related. What I meant was does Corsi, which is a measure of possession based on shooting the puck, actually correlate to possessing the puck? For example, during a power play the team on the powerplay usually is in possession of the puck 99% of the time when in the offensive zone while they pass the puck around trying to find an opening between the penalty killers. However, if they don't get a shot off due to being overly cautious, that would not be measured as possession by a shot tracking metric for possession. So my point was do shot tracking metrics REALLY measure possession? Has anybody tracked Corsi vs. totalling up the time each team actually has the puck on their stick or in control? One could imagine the opposite scenario to my powerplay example where the team that has the puck just cycles the puck around and around but never gets a shot off, then the other team steals the puck and races down the other end and shoots. They may have only had the puck 5 seconds, but get a shot on goal, so they are "winning" the Corsi metric for possession even though the other team actually possessed the puck longer.

Edited by MinJaBen

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I think these are great points and I could not agree more.

 

The October hump is critical for so many reasons: If you are too far out by Thanksgiving your playoff chances plummet. See the last two years. Also, well, see the last two years: This team needs something for people to get excited about. If this team came out of the shoot and went 7-3*, people would look up and say, huh? Then come home and do well and interest would build. I've seen it in past years, and by late January attendance is building. Casual fans need to see this team is different, and a good start would be different. Also, as a young team trying to find it's way with some new additions, one would guess they will get better as time goes on. So a decent start will set that up.

 

*I'm honestly just asking for around real .500, and we'll be fine, but a surprise jump out of the gates would build buzz.

 

The OT/SO thing is also critical. Because of our shot limiting and shot generating, we are in a lot of close games. We were 2-5 in shootouts #25, and out 3 on 3 record was bad too. We lead the league in OT losses. When you are fighting the cut line, those points are big. We have been bad at these two for years. And it makes sense. The coaching, defense, possession, etc, go out the door and it comes down to skill of skaters and skill of goalie. And those have been the issue for a long time.

 

The Corsi and advanced stats suggest that the structure is there. But the finish and the goaltending, the final step, has not been there.

 

I am hopeful that the combination of new additions and skilled players moving up on their growth curve will get us enough goals to make the playoffs, but probably not contend yet for the cup. On the goaltending the fingers are crossed a bit more tightly.

Edited by remkin

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I have more hope for the goal tending this year now that we actually have a formidable defense for the first time in as long as I can remember.  That D will only get better too.

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Totally agree with this, and will take it a step further: The team needs to tell the NHL to just schedule its October the same as it does for every other team, and if the State Fair doesn't like it, the State Fair can go straight to--uh, the bathroom of its gender at birth.

 

That the Canes annually miss an outsize marketing opportunity - a great chance to build their brand and hockey more generally in this non-traditional market, and to juxtapose it against the decidedly non-hockey backdrop of one of the state's great economic engines, when people from all over the state descend on Raleigh - is just a crime.

 

 

Hold your calls; we have a winner.

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Totally agree with this, and will take it a step further: The team needs to tell the NHL to just schedule its October the same as it does for every other team, and if the State Fair doesn't like it, the State Fair can go straight to--uh, the bathroom of its gender at birth.

 

That the Canes annually miss an outsize marketing opportunity - a great chance to build their brand and hockey more generally in this non-traditional market, and to juxtapose it against the decidedly non-hockey backdrop of one of the state's great economic engines, when people from all over the state descend on Raleigh - is just a crime.

 

Playing devil's advocate, I am assuming you have never been to a Canes game scheduled during the State Fair.  I have.

 

It just can't possibly be done at the same time.  It's a nightmare.

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