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I agree that GMRF isn't in the quick fix business; but then as a fan how do we measure success in the upcoming season?

 

For the season to be a success in our eyes.

 

Do we need to make the playoffs?

or

Do we only need to contend while improving our overall record?

or perhaps

scoring more goals than we give up will be enough to keep the optimism growing.

 

I'm just curious how other feel. For me making the playoffs is the only improvement that will signal the team is moving forward.

 

Hm. This is, as they say, the $64 question....

 

I waffle a bit about this one. Would making the playoffs in 2016-17 be desirable? Absolutely! It would be an eye-catching achievement, certainly.

 

Is making the playoffs in 2016-17 necessary? I'm not so sure about that one. The Hurricanes finished with 86 points last season, and because the Metropolitan Division was pretty top-heavy ( five teams from the Metro made the playoffs, with only one of them under 100 points), they were 10 points out of the last wild-card spot. Is it reasonable to expect a ten-point improvement in the year after a 15-point improvement? I don't know.

 

For myself, I would think that if the Hurricanes improved by five to eight points - that would put them at 91 to 93 points - it would still show marked improvement, given that it gets harder to move up the standings as a team gets closer to the top.

 

Of course, if the Metropolitan Division strength drops off a little, 93 points could put the team on the brink of the playoffs anyway. Boston got in from the Atlantic Division with 93 points.

Edited by JonKerfoot

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BP has to legitimately expect the playoffs this year. You can't almost make the playoffs and lose that speed the following year I think it'd be a huge set back. So at the very least the Canes need to make 9th to not lose momentum.

 

Myself, I think these guys are outside looking in for one final year but if the fans could learn anything from last year we can't pre-judge a BP team. No way in hell after October do I tell you we were gonna fight for 8th. Hell I've got some BD type posts in October calling them a bunch of losers who just wanted to collect a check. 

 

The list of ifs is quite extensive for making the playoffs but I don't find the list of ifs to be impossible either. The one if we simply can't recover from is goaltending, we need someone to authoritatively take the crease and never give it up.

Edited by legend-1

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There is a very fine line between staying the course and building from the draft and going out and acquiring top end talent.  Eventually you will have to do just that (acquire top end talent) or you will become like the Edmonton Oilers.  That team has been staying the course since 2007 and look where it has gotten them.  Eventually RF will need to make a move.  It's not a question of how but more of a question of when.  Eventually this team will ahve to unload an asset or assets for top line talent.

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I have to think the GOAL is to really surprise people and make the playoffs going away. Works for me  ;)

 

I HOPE we secure first place by the end of October and never relinquish it on the strength of balanced scoring, speed, and shutdown D.

 

I EXPECT we will net out around 91 points, and - if the division comes back to us a bit, as JohnKerfoot notes - we'll get in.

 

As far as defining success or failure, I don't think we're at the stage - yet - where getting into the dance is the determining factor, although I do think it is for BP personally. If we do, it clearly signals that we've consolidated the gains of last season, stayed ahead of schedule, and are poised for long-term competitiveness.

 

For me at least, success this season runs along a continuum which is considerate of the following:

- earning at least 90 standings points 

- increasing goals for by at least 20 

- holding steady or decreasing goals against

 

If we do any two of those things, we had a successful year (and we probably get in). If we do one, it could still be a successful year - especially if it's the first one - and we might get in. But if we do none, it's completely fair to say we did not improve, and the year was wasted; a failure. And if that happens, I fear we could be playing for the franchise's life in 2017-18.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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There is a very fine line between staying the course and building from the draft and going out and acquiring top end talent.  Eventually you will have to do just that (acquire top end talent) or you will become like the Edmonton Oilers.  That team has been staying the course since 2007 and look where it has gotten them.  Eventually RF will need to make a move.  It's not a question of how but more of a question of when.  Eventually this team will ahve to unload an asset or assets for top line talent.

 

If you think the Oilers stink because they don't have any top end talent you seriously don't understand hockey.

 

Every year Detroit makes the playoffs and Edmonton doesn't.  Figure out why and you will have it figured out.

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If you think the Oilers stink because they don't have any top end talent you seriously don't understand hockey.

Every year Detroit makes the playoffs and Edmonton doesn't. Figure out why and you will have it figured out.

They also do not shy away from acquiring top end talent from time to time via free agency......

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They also do not shy away from acquiring top end talent from time to time via free agency......

 

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2016/06/red_wings_bestworst_free-agent.html

 

According to this, they haven't made a good FA top end move in many years.  And yet they make the playoffs every year.  So you still don't really get my point, which is "organizational depth" is what allows you to sustain performances year in, year out.  Along with good coaching.

 

I would like top end talent too.  Last time I checked, we didn't get a chance at the generational players.  No one is trading them, no one is letting them go.  Even Stamkos stayed.  So they aren't available, and if you think what is going to save this team is signing Okposo for $42M  7 years then I am just going to have to disagree with you.   Another big name, Eric Staal, signed for 3.5m a year, he's "top end talent" too. 

 

I know most are already saying it, but "stay the course" is better than taking on the next Semin.  If I could sign Malkin or Crosby or Stamkos or McDavid or Eichel I would but it ain't happenin.   Once you get down to the 3-5M range guys, you are looking at the same projected output and skills as some of our prospects that we already have.  Some will pan out, some won't.  But you gotta play it out before you know which are which.

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I think making the playoffs has to be the goal for the team this year.  It's been too long and the team should be moving in that direction.  I guess "just missing" at the end would be an improvement, but it'd still feel like a kick in the crotch.

 

 

 

For myself, I would think that if the Hurricanes improved by five to eight points - that would put them at 91 to 93 points - it would still show marked improvement, given that it gets harder to move up the standings as a team gets closer to the top.

 

 

 

Dave really captured how I will feel if we don't make the playoffs but yet he and JonKerfoot have a good point. I guess team success could be tallied by several different achievements. If we don't make the playoffs I will certainly look for other positives but I still think making the playoffs will be the clear indication the team has taken the next step.

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They also do not shy away from acquiring top end talent from time to time via free agency......

Actually, compared to other teams, they pretty much do, and when they've gone in on FA, their success in has been mixed at best. Take a look. (FYI, it's a slideshow.)

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http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2016/06/red_wings_bestworst_free-agent.html

 

According to this, they haven't made a good FA top end move in many years.  And yet they make the playoffs every year.  So you still don't really get my point, which is "organizational depth" is what allows you to sustain performances year in, year out.  Along with good coaching.

Heh. Great minds think alike. (And ours do, too!)

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Heh. Great minds think alike. (And ours do, too!)

 

So tell me about them drafting Hasek, Hull, and Robitalle, and going on to win the cup that year,  Need a more recent move?  Green, Vanek, Nielsen, Brad Richards.  Now all of the mentioned names are not top end talent.  However, Vanek....  That is top end talent.  So...... technically they do not just strictly build from the draft for high end forwards in recent years.  I gave a 2003 and 2016 example.

Edited by bluedevil58

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So tell me about them drafting Hasek, Hull, and Robitalle, and going on to win the cup that year,  Need a more recent move?  Green, Vanek, Nielsen, Brad Richards.  Now all of the mentioned names are not top end talent.  However, Vanek....  That is top end talent.  So...... technically they do not just strictly build from the draft for high end forwards in recent years.  I gave a 2003 and 2016 example.

 

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/gregg-krupa/2016/07/22/krupa-richards-arrived-red-wings-party-late/87461592/

 

"Alfredsson is the only free agent signed by the Red Wings in several seasons whose success approached the hopes of management."

 

Your point is what, we should be signing more high priced talent that doesn't pan out?

 

I agree, they are willing to try, if that is your point.  My point is they make the playoffs from their system, not from their FAs.

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But they just don't make the playoffs because of their system.  Throughout the year they have signed or traded for top end forwards in some shape or form.  Like I said earlier, there comes a point in time where you have to do more than just draft and build from the draft.  Is that time now?  I have no idea.  But teams just don't make the playoffs by just going with the draft for talent.  Almost every team makes a major acquisition in some shape or form.  Hasek, Robitalle, Bertuzzi, Vanek, Alfreddson, Hull, Modano.....  Those are all major acquisitions in some shape or form over the years....

 

Either way you look at it, the major players in today's game:  Chi, LA, Pitt, Wsh, Rangers, San Jose.  Have made major acquisitions in order to win consistently and did not just build from the draft.  The only team that maybe has built from the draft more than others is Detroit but they also have early round playoff exits.  At this point just getting to the playoffs would be a major feat.

Edited by bluedevil58

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You have to get the foundation built before you start picking paint colors and light fixtures

 

You gotta have the car first before you can install the quadraphonic Blaupunkt.

 

 

P.S.  SD, Every time I read your posts I get distracted by how hilarious "Doyle Hargraves, Canes Life Coach" really is.  For reference, for the uninformed...  https://youtu.be/Jey29FY1KkE?t=1m29s 

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I am no Detroit expert, but since they are the model I've kicked the tire on them a few times.

 

They have had an amazing run, and are the organizational standard for a lot of teams. They are though, also a bit of an outlier. Nearly all current top teams got there with a few key very high talent picks, usually from the top of the draft, mixed with some organizational depth and a few key trades or UFA's. Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, Florida, Washington, Tampa, etc.

 

Really people love to point to Detroit on one side and the Olers on the other side of this debate. I think they are both outliers. All the teams listed above used high draft picks and trades to get their team to the top. The extent of the Oiler's ineptness picking #1 over and over is as unparalleled as Detroit's success with late draft picks has been.

 

Detroit has either had a vastly superior scouting service or some key luck, or probably both. But they have been far from a team without elite skill. Take Zetterberg and Dastuk off those teams? Or Lidstrom? They got those guys with late draft picks and that is amazing. And they have been able to develop strong organizational depth, but then again, their time might be coming to an end as their rare super high end talent found in late rounds years ago, starts retiring and moving to Russia. If you look through Detroits' entire drafts over the last 5-7 years, drafting late has lead to a lot of misses lately. Sure there is Larkin and some more marginal hits, but not to the Datsuk, Lidstrom, Zetterberg level of elite. This year we will probably best see how the system holds up with less talent. We shall see.

 

Francis told me that hitting on late picks is some skill and a lot of luck. The good news is that we've had a very nice run with second and below round picks lately. But do we have enough to be a perennial contender? Do we have a Datsuk in our system? Maybe. I really do think this year is still partly about finding that out. But most teams need to make a move at some point to get the guy they couldn't find in the draft. Considering how stacked we are with D prospects and D men, that move IS coming at some point. My own personal opinion is that our D prospects are not NHL realized yet, so it is too soon to A. Trade them (not getting full value) B. Trade Faulk and rely on them.

 

So, Not Opie's trade involves trading forwards, including a real possible diamond in the rough prospect in Roy. But THE move is more likely to involved trading D. So I don't see his trade happening.

 

I do think this though. IF this team gets a good start and starts showing playoff chops, Francis will make a move for a needed piece at some point in the season. If he makes a move before that, it would have to be for a seriously elite potential young forward, like a Draisaitl type player. But those deals are few and far between and a likely partner, the Oilers have already moved Taylor Hall. So I see us going in with our current line up, but keeping the phone close by if a deal needs to be made.

 

Francis is operating like playoffs this year are not a mandate, not giving up any prospects for players and not getting an upgrade in goal. He is not acting like a guy desperate to get in this year. I do wonder if that changes as the year plays out.

Edited by remkin

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Francis is operating like playoffs this year are not a mandate, not giving up any prospects for players and not getting an upgrade in goal. He is not acting like a guy desperate to get in this year. I do wonder if that changes as the year plays out.

I don't think so. It sure didn't last year, and I'd be willing to bet one E Staal is kicking himself for not jumping at whatever RF was offering, because it had to be at least as good as what he got. Maybe not the term, but was moving the family to the Frozen Tundra for one extra year worth it, Eric? That being said, I'm glad we've moved on; I don't think we're anywhere near as good on paper at this moment if he'd stayed.

 

I do disagree with your assessment that Detroit's success is largely reliant on luck. While it's an outlier, an outlier by definition is an exception to the current trend. Well, sure Detroit is. By that standard, it's also an outlier in sheer terms of its very existence; only five other teams in the whole league were around prior to 1967.

 

Of course every team needs a certain amount of luck, no question about it (i.e., our FA veteran D NOT playing less than a minute all year would have been nice). But Detroit has obviously had the coaching in place to turn rough gems into highly polished diamonds regardless of their draft order, and despite the overall watering down of talent that is inevitable when you add 24 teams to a league.

 

I think you make your own luck, and that the largest part is being sure your picks fit your organizational profile for success. Detroit guys - to a man, and down through time - have been "play for your teammates" types: Howe, Delvecchio, Lindsay. Lunch-bucket, blue collar--whatever term you like. But without that trait, I don't think you get a job there, and if you become a prima donna while on the team, I don't you stay. And that's the biggest change here, IMO.

 

Like you say, rem, if you're close, if you need help to get over the hump, and if the right deal for the right kind of player is there, fantastic. But RF isn't forcing anything. He clearly isn't about to saddle the org with some prima donna who's too big for his britches, because he recognizes the long-term downsides of doing so--and good on him. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Just a little quibble top. I wrote that Detroit either had much better scouting or some luck, probably both. Not that it was pure luck, though picking any draft pick involves luck, and the later in the draft, the more luck plays in.

 

But Detroit had a lot of late round hits, so I do not think it was all luck by any means.

 

I do hold to the fact that Detroit is not just a system team though. When they don't have the elite talent level (or it is aging out or injured) they become the cut line team they've been the last couple of years, and probably are again this year.

Edited by remkin

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Detroit is in cap hell (pay attention BD).  Currently, they are not a model franchise.  Conversely, GMRF spends wisely.

 

Lots of momentum going on at the moment with the paying customers.  Lots of fence sitters too that need to be won over.  I'm in this for the long haul but I think anything less than being right in the hunt all year is going to be a setback.  

 

I'm praying the goal tending will hold up.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Just a little quibble top. I wrote that Detroit either had much better scouting or some luck, probably both. Not that it was pure luck, though picking any draft pick involves luck, and the later in the draft, the more luck plays in.

Point taken, and sorry if "largely reliant on luck" felt like "pure luck." I guess my larger point is that it's easy to say every success involves luck, because it does; your coaching has to pan out, your players have to buy in, etc. Still (and I get that you agree) I think you "attract" luck largely by avoiding the things which are potential obstacles to success.  

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We (as fans) only view organizational success as wins vs losses, playoff appearances, and Stanley Cups.  Management has to take a different view of what exactly success means.  The ultimate goal of any business (and that's exactly what this is) is to make a profit.  If you look at where the Canes are, it is apparent that this team makes a profit only when it is in competition for a playoff spot and hopefully in the playoffs.  IF this can be accomplished at the lower end of the salary range, there is more profit and maybe more money available for when the team does get in the position where it can compete for the Shiny Thing.

 

This is the balancing act that GMRF has to handle.  Build the foundation that will result in the Canes being a playoff team at least every other year on average and make a profit for AOPK (something owner Peter Karmanos).  In order to do this, it takes a long term approach o building a contender. 

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Build a foundation. At what point is the foundation built and when do you need to execute to acquire elite talent? We are stocked with d prospects and in my honest opinion this organization is stocked with a lot of young capable forwards. The foundation is there. The only thing missing are the goal tending prospects. This team has not made the playoffs since 2009. This year it is playoffs or bust.

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Build a foundation. At what point is the foundation built and when do you need to execute to acquire elite talent? We are stocked with d prospects and in my honest opinion this organization is stocked with a lot of young capable forwards. The foundation is there. The only thing missing are the goal tending prospects. This team has not made the playoffs since 2009. This year it is playoffs or bust.

Does that mean we won't have to tolerate your ultimatums anymore if we don't get in? Might be worth it... :lol:

 

Seriously, BD, it's easy to come on here and say bombastic things. But doing so just illustrates (at least to me) that you have zero concept of the awful situation RF and BP inherited. Here we are two years later and 15 points better than the prior season, and if we just miss, that's not good enough for you. Really? Now if BP loses the room (ain't gonna happen) and we miss by 20, yeah--dismal failure, and there'd be no excuse. But like SD says, if we're competitive enough to put butts in the seats and pay the bills, that's all that matters every season, in terms of keeping hockey in Raleigh.

 

So if we can do that, playoffs this year or no, the playoffs will come. Fan ultimatums achieve nothing--except, perhaps, captivating the fan issuing them with the sound of his own voice.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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I feel like the idea of Detroit being ungodly in drafting is a bit outdated. Zetterberg and Datsyuk were drafted ages ago and while they've got that long playoff streak, they've lately been a sick man just limping into the playoffs. I mean, they've still drafted well, just no late round superstars.

 

Regarding elite talent, we've got plenty on defense. Course we need some elite forwards. Maybe we've got some young guys that turn elite, Aho, Gauthier, Teravainen, Lindholm? But that's just a hope. It's silly to think Francis can just go out and get elite forwards and isn't. A McDavid won't just magically fall to us in the draft. You don't get an Ovechkin in free agency. Chicago wouldn't just give us a Patrick Kane. But there is that Seguin that occasionally becomes available, but Francis has to wait and exploit it. I think in a couple years, once more of our defense prospects become fully developed and have more value we could get a Kucherov or Drouin out of a cap crunched Tampa. Buffalo, NYI, and Arizona have tons of forward prospects we could pick from for some defensemen.

 

I could see how someone would be frustrated by Francis not going after Taylor Hall, but we all know the price would have been Faulk. For me, I just don't think the timing is right to make that trade. Our time will come when our defensemen have more value and making big moves won't disrupt the progress that's been made.

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