Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
OBXer

2016 Off-Season Talk

Recommended Posts

Well said, donwake.  Don't be a stranger around here.

 

The most likely way to get an elite player is to stink up the joint so badly that the team finishes dead last and then hope to win the lottery, and then hope you select the right guy.  I don't see that as being the goal.  The next way is to overpay with assets and pry away a player from another bottom dweller (see your Taylor Hall comment).  You covered the free agency angle.  I guess that leaves GMRF to turn over all the rocks and eventually find a piece that makes sense.  You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince, or you end up with a Semin.

 

edit:

 

My entry in this year's team motto contest...

 

wpid-7848af48f2f65190619cd334a28b69ee.jp

 

Beats the heck out of #Redvolution.  There is a better version of this, but it isn't PG rated.

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beats the heck out of #Redvolution.  There is a better version of this, but it isn't PG rated.

Shorter: Whatever It Takes.

 

Gets my vote for permanent Canes' motto.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You gotta have the car first before you can install the quadraphonic Blaupunkt.

 

 

 

:thumbsup2:   So who is our "Crash" Davis?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Donwake,

 

I agree with most of the points on your post. I've been on the edge of basically saying that Detroit of the past few years has been largely living of of a few really good late round draft picks of a long time ago. People like to point out that Detroit seems to just find tons and tons of elite NHL talent late in the draft, and defies picking at the bottom of the list again and again. But after 1989 their drafting prowess is a bit overrated. Really they hit massively w/ Zetterberg in 1989, Datsuk in 1988, and Lidstrom in 1989. That super-elite trio drove the level of their success. Sure, there was depth and other key pieces, but take those guys away? Mediocrity.

 

But that does make my point on truly elite talent. You don't need a ton of it, but you do need some of it.

 

Since then there have been a couple of smaller hits, but looking now, the only certified hit in the last 6-7 years of bottom half drafting is Dylan Larkin, and he was #15 overall first rounder. Sure Tartar in 2009, but he's a 45 point guy, Nyquist in 2008, another 45 point guy. Abddulkater 2005 40 point guy, Daren Helm is fast but only a 25 point guy. If you pull up the entire drafts for Detroit over the past 6-7 years, it is full of misses.

 

Looks like Babcock might have jumped ship at a pretty good time.

 

As to whether long term elite talent is out there to be had, yes, but I agree, it is very difficult to get it. First, those deals are fairly uncommon, and second, you do have to give to get. You either have to give an outsized, overtermed contract to a UFA or you have to give talent for talent, or you have to give a massively bad year to pick high. The trade can be had, but it takes a "hockey" trade usually. (Now if TT goes elite, that would be an exception). And this is where I agree and have been saying, we are not really ready to make a "hockey" trade right now. I know that Francis has made attempts at Drouin, and I suspect he made a play at a couple of Oilers. But for a couple of years now he has shown us that he is not ready to part with his prime prospects or players, including on defense. And that's what it would take.

 

Larsen for Hall highly suggests that Faulk for Hall was there. My guess is that Francis needed more than "just" Hall and the Oilers found another deal. I am speculating on that one, but I have heard rumors.

 

My take is that Francis has a list of "A" prospects and players, and will not trade them for less than max return at this point. He is holding on to them with a vice grip. And I get that. It makes no sense to trade, say Fleury, if the return is say Nyquist. Fleury has top pair potential. If he realizes it, he could be traded for a truly elite forward. While there is little doubt that a Faulk deal is there, this would be a very risky move this year. Thus Faulk is only going to go if Francis gets a haul for him, and that deal has not been there.

 

Now as time goes on, and the defense behind Faulk solidifies, I still think more of a straight hockey trade for Faulk could be the move. So, to get a Johansen you have to trade a Jones. The only Jones we have is Faulk (Hanifin is untouchable), but that would be very risky for this year's team, but even by next year may be doable.

 

As outstanding as our depth pool is on defense, that defense on the NHL ice is very very young. While I think Hanifin will end up being a perennial All Star, he is 19 and is not there yet. I don't think Slavin/Pesce will have a sophomore slump, but they could, and are they ready to be the top pair? And what if we have injuries? This year's team needs Faulk.

 

If a GM looked a Fleury as a future top pair defenseman, and had a future top line forward, maybe, but that deal is even harder to find and make. Example: Fleury, first rounder and a B prospect for Draisaitl. Or something like that. But Fleury is still too much of an unknown to draw a deal like that.

 

So my take is that Francis IS willing to make a move like that, but at this point he has to feel he is winning that trade, not just making a hockey trade. This makes such a deal much less likely right now.

 

Another thing about trading prospects is getting a true read on how good they are. Gauthier is a late first round pick right now, but in a couple of years he could be a Dylan Larkin. Sareela, Koukannen, Zykov, Bean, McKeown, Fleury, and others all could turn into really good players but would not draw much return now. It is pretty clear that Francis wants to let all of these guys develop and see what grows.

 

The last thing is that Francis clearly has the green light on one more year of playing things out. He has given zero indication that he has flipped the "win now" switch. None. (If his life depended on playoffs this year, would he have rolle the dice on Cam? I don't think so).

 

When you put all of that into the "likihood of block buster trade" blender, you get no obvious guy to trade, with a GM not interested in moving any of his prospects or high picks, who is firmly on track with staying the course. So, unless he can clearly win a trade for an elite forward or goalie, now is not time, and the answer is very low likihood on a big trade.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy cow did that one get remkinesque.

 

OK this one is short.

 

If this team wants some nice attendance, the best way to show that things are different will be a good start. To get that we need our goalies to show up on time. A good start will start the process of buzz and attendance will build so long as we are still in it, especially if we sit in a playoff spot on paper.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My apologies for bringing up Detroit in the first place but look on the bright side, we got 2 days closer to the start of the season with all of that drek.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:thumbsup2:   So who is our "Crash" Davis?

 

Boychuk was heading for it, for sure.

 

I'm pretty sure we don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt anyway, what we need is a wristshot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Boychuk was heading for it, for sure.

 

I'm pretty sure we don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt anyway, what we need is a wristshot.

 

What we need is some payin' gigs.

 

Detroit is a fine example to use as the paragon of drafting and developing talent.  They draft and let their talent simmer in the AHL and are able to bring them up and have them contribute.  This has gotten them to 20some consecutive playoff appearances and we are running a big ol' 0fer on that score.  A couple of draft steals is what people remember, but that Detroit system is what GMRF and PBP are building. 

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say that the Detroit system on the ice is a good one. It fits the team we are building too. It plays fast and is fun to watch.

 

Also, I'm not downplaying draft and develop. I am hugely bullish on the depth of our prospect pool, and given our mostly lowish picks, we've been on a tear with good picks, but in the NHL you have to get at least some elite talent to go with your depth. I think we've found it on defense. On offense and in goal, time will tell, If not, we may have to go get it. But there's nothing wrong with that.

 


 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 years from now I have a feeling I will still see "stay the course" posts. If we do not make the playoffs this year then this off season was a complete failure. Eric and Cams big contracts came off the books and we failed to make a big move that would launch us into the post season. This season falls on RF and PK if we falter which I think we will do just that with the way the forward lines are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 years from now I have a feeling I will still see "stay the course" posts. If we do not make the playoffs this year then this off season was a complete failure. Eric and Cams big contracts came off the books and we failed to make a big move that would launch us into the post season. This season falls on RF and PK if we falter which I think we will do just that with the way the forward lines are.

 

What exact move would you suggest that RF should have made?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lucic, Ladd, Okoposo, Backes, Boedker, Erikson. Even Faulk for Hall. We could have afforded any of thee guys. One can tell teams overpaid for these guys and will pay for it down the road. But said teams will also enjoy.making it to the playoffs consistently until they get to that down the road point with the exception of EDM. It takes money to make money.

Edited by bluedevil58

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lucic, Ladd, Okoposo, Backes, Boedker, Erikson. Even Faulk for Hall. We could have afforded any of thee guys. One can tell teams overpaid for these guys and will pay for it down the road. But said teams will also enjoy.making it to the playoffs consistently until they get to that down the road point with the exception of EDM. It takes money to make money.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

There is a right way and a wrong way.

 

BTW, you should be a Toronto fan, they are more your style.  They might even be good finally, now that they tanked for a superelite player, which they obtained of course, through the draft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My entry in this year's team motto contest...

 

wpid-7848af48f2f65190619cd334a28b69ee.jp

 

Beats the heck out of #Redvolution.  There is a better version of this, but it isn't PG rated.

 

Love the motto.  Love the non-PG version much better!

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I'm thinking about the Faulk for Hall idea. Assuming that was an option, and why Francis didn't do it.

 

As I think about it, I'm realizing that not doing that move would be all about making the playoffs this year. At first it seems contra-intuitive since the concerns this year are more around scoring than defense. BUT that assumes we have Justin Faulk back there. If you take Faulk off this team, then there would be concerns about defense this year. In fact, if we let Faulk go and had an injury to Slavin, Pesce or Hainsey, we'd could have a significant issue on defense this year.

 

But if we did not care about this year, we could make that move to lock down an elite forward for the future, and wait for our defense to form up next year and beyond.

 

I'm sure there were other factors too, but if looked at through the playoffs this year vantage, keeping Faulk is the move.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lucic, Ladd, Okoposo, Backes, Boedker, Erikson. Even Faulk for Hall. We could have afforded any of thee guys. One can tell teams overpaid for these guys and will pay for it down the road. But said teams will also enjoy.making it to the playoffs consistently until they get to that down the road point with the exception of EDM. It takes money to make money.

I can understand and sympathize someone wanting Hall for Faulk. But I don't understand the logic that signing a big name UFA somehow guarantees the teams to get into the playoffs. Only the Islanders and Sharks I'd say are shoo ins this coming season and it sure ain't cause of Ladd or Boedker. I don't see signing any of the guys you listed as making big moves. None of the guys are elite or worth the 6x7 buyout proof contracts that some got. How are the Islanders going to pay their young guys coming off ELCs when they've got to pay Ladd? How are the Oilers going to keep Puljujarvi and Draisaitl after they give McDavid a 10 mil per contract and have to pay Lucic? Having bad bloated contracts come off the books doesn't mean you go ahead and fill your cap with new bad contracts. we've got slavin, hanifin, pesce, aho, teravainen, gauthier, fleury, bean, Roy, nedeljkovic, and other prospects still on ELCs. That's why our cap hit is so low. These guys have to get paid eventually though and I'm willing to bet more than a few of them will be better players than many of the UFAs listed sooner rather than later. To me a big move is Francis using his cap space as a commodity to get more assets while he's still got that cap room and then managing to keep all his promising prospects instead of having to trade them away like Chicago.

Edited by donwake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will go on record for saying we are 1 forward shy from being a close to consistent playoff team.  If we falter this season.  It will be because of our lack of high end forward depth.  I hope I am wrong.  But I am more concerned about our scoring than our goal tending.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me a big move is Francis using his cap space as a commodity to get more assets while he's still got that cap room and then managing to keep all his promising prospects instead of having to trade them away like Chicago.

 

Cap space is an asset just like players and picks.  I still think it's over a 50% chance that RF picks up another top 6 forward as a cap casualty as camp nears without giving up anything much and not being on the hook for a $7M x 6 deal.  It won't be a top line center, but a winger. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will go on record for saying we are 1 forward shy from being a close to consistent playoff team. If we falter this season. It will be because of our lack of high end forward depth. I hope I am wrong. But I am more concerned about our scoring than our goal tending.

I have that concern about this year too, but we shouldn't try to fix a short term problem by creating a long term one. I'm just not sure how well our young forwards will do. But I think our forward core is already better than it was last year and many believe Francis isn't done yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can understand and sympathize someone wanting Hall for Faulk. But I don't understand the logic that signing a big name UFA somehow guarantees the teams to get into the playoffs. 

That's because there is no logic. Only bombast and provocation. You'll get used to it (or perhaps, like some of us, resort to the "Ignore user" option).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...