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You guys are seriously under estimating the lack of top end talent that this team has. By my count this team had 2 players playing for their countries this year. That's right 2 players. The fact that neither of these 2 players have played a single game for the Hurricanes speaks volumes about our talent gap when compared to most other teams. If you don't think we are going to see what this results in this season then you're a fool.

A top pairing defenseman needs to actually be able to play defense and not have a God awful +/-. I view Faulk as a lower tier top pairing guy. A step above Sekera. That is why I would be fine with a Hall for Faulk deal.

Edited by bluedevil58

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As I think about it, I'm realizing that not doing that move would be all about making the playoffs this year. At first it seems contra-intuitive[...]

 

But if we did not care about this year, we could make that move to lock down an elite forward for the future, and wait for our defense to form up next year and beyond.

This is exactly right, rem. We've got, with zero exaggeration, five "lottery tickets" in terms of potential elite/already elite forwards: Skinner, Rask, Lindholm, TT, Aho. I'd personally add PDG and Jordan (the latter is already elite in terms of the particular game he brings). That is just this year, and it assumes Gauthier doesn't surprise us out of camp.

 

I've never disagreed with you that we need two elite forwards, only that we need to go out and get them through FA or by trading away a key asset. With the exception of Aho and PDG, everybody on that list has multiple seasons in the NHL. They know what this league is about, they are poised to convert that knowledge into production, and they are in a system tailor-made (no pun intended!) for making it happen.

 

RF is (rightly) as concerned about trying to do too much as he is about doing too little. Moving Faulk or any other D asset at this stage is one move too many; if the Wiz Incident proved nothing else, it is that. The moves for forwards this off-season were incredibly strategic and surgical. In less than three years he and BP have blown up this team, rebuilt it, and moved it up the standings.

 

Just goes to show that blowing things up doesn't always produce an explosion.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Lucic, Ladd, Okoposo, Backes, Boedker, Erikson. Even Faulk for Hall. We could have afforded any of thee guys. One can tell teams overpaid for these guys and will pay for it down the road. But said teams will also enjoy.making it to the playoffs consistently until they get to that down the road point with the exception of EDM. It takes money to make money.

 

 

You're wanting Jimmy Rutherford moves out of Ron Francis.  With all due respect, i think you're going to be very disappointed with this team from here on out.  Francis isn't going to make the Sutter/Dumoulin/1st-for-JStaal moves.  Francis isn't going to make the Sasha-5year-$35m signings.  Francis is trying to build depth from within through solid drafting and frugal trading - he isn't going to mortgage any of that on a one-and-out attempt at a Cup until he feels he has a valid contender.  Brother, it takes time to get there.  I'm with you - i want playoffs this year.  I'm with you - i would have traded Faulk for Hall (or a bag of pucks in my case, a stance which has been documented to the point of nausea to many posters i expect).  But Francis isn't going to risk the future for a run this year.  You say we're one forward away, but that's only if we accept those 'ifs' that not everyone is certain about.  If Aho ISN'T ready, if Lindholm and Teravainen DON'T break out, etc, then throwing down the farm for Erikson or Ladd is a wasted gesture.

 

You're wanting free agent splashes.  Pretty much everything Francis has done points to the fact he wants the opposite.  Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevant - the fact of the matter is the current M.O. of this team is a long way from your hockey philosophy.  So i say again, you're going to continue to be very disappointed.

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I think it's wonderful that the organization has an untapped wealth of knowledge among lowly message board members that know more about building a hockey organization than Hall of Famer, Ron Francis.  It just goes to show you the level of...intelligence we have available right here.

 

It's a great time to be alive.

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You guys are seriously under estimating the lack of top end talent that this team has. By my count this team had 2 players playing for their countries this year. That's right 2 players. The fact that neither of these 2 players have played a single game for the Hurricanes speaks volumes about our talent gap when compared to most other teams. If you don't think we are going to see what this results in this season then you're a fool.

A top pairing defenseman needs to actually be able to play defense and not have a God awful +/-. I view Faulk as a lower tier top pairing guy. A step above Sekera. That is why I would be fine with a Hall for Faulk deal.

Bombast58 has spoken.

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It's always harder to follow a long term plan. There also usually comes a point in that long term plan when the pressure to change the plan gets stronger and stronger. BD has legitimate concerns but most of us and GMRF still feel that the long term plan is still preferable and has a lot of potential.

 

There is a time for a carefully selected UFA, but not at this point in our cycle. Sure, we can all remember what happened with Semin, but teams have also picked up key free agents too. Marian Hossa for the Blackhawks, Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman and others for us. It's just not the right time in our cycle to commit to older expensive players.

 

I do think that if this team starts slow again, the pressure to do something will rise sharply. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

 

Still, there is a lot to like about the long term, and even the short term.

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Ray Whitney...

Interesting choice. Compare The Wizard's production in his last season with the Red Wings (14G, 29A) to what he did in his first season here (17/38, just 12 points better overall--but a Cup). I think he is exactly what we're getting with TT, only much eariler in his career. Something else that's pertinent: Ray Whitney's career year was 06-07 (32/51/83)--the year we completed our journey from first to (nearly) worst. In terms of the team's success that year, Whitney made - quite literally - no difference whatsoever.

 

Free agents do not a franchise make. I know you get that, Rem. I'm just a total loss as to others' willful ignorance of it.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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One could say that comparing TT to Whitney is also willful ignorance since he has yet to hit 50 points / season.  He is also coming to a team that does not have: Ladd, Toews, Hossa, or Kane.  One could technically say that he might not even hit 35 points this year due to having lower quality line mates playing with him than his days in CHI.  Maybe it hard to swallow this but signing a veteran for 5 years at 6m per year who has hit 20 goals a season for the past 5 seasons means your probably getting a 20 goal scorer who can contribute.

 

Signing a guy who finished his first NHL season with 35 points on a really good team with a really good defense and really good high end forward talent means he might progress/ we hope he progresses.  But he could also be a beneficiary of playing on a great team and be a product of the system.  I am the kind of guy who would rather have a definite 20 goal scorer than a maybe 35 + point a year kind of guy.  

Edited by bluedevil58

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One could say that comparing TT to Whitney is also willful ignorance since he has yet to hit 50 points / season.  He is also coming to a team that does not have: Ladd, Toews, Hossa, or Kane.  One could technically say that he might not even hit 35 points this year due to having lower quality line mates playing with him than his days in CHI.  Maybe it hard to swallow this but signing a veteran for 5 years at 6m per year who has hit 20 goals a season for the past 5 seasons means your probably getting a 20 goal scorer who can contribute.

 

Signing a guy who finished his first NHL season with 35 points on a really good team with a really good defense and really good high end forward talent means he might progress/ we hope he progresses.  But he could also be a beneficiary of playing on a great team and be a product of the system.  I am the kind of guy who would rather have a definite 20 goal scorer than a maybe 35 + point a year kind of guy.  

And maybe this is hard to swallow, but there's no such thing as a "definite 20-goal scorer." Any player at any time on any team can fall back. The odds I like a whole lot better are that great prospects who are willing to play the system you tell them to will do so, and fulfill expectations.

 

Go out and get (what you call) a "definite 20-goal scorer" and the only "definite" increase is to your payroll, and for the long term -- which is the box we just (*cough Semin*), finally, (*cough Eric*) got out of (*cough Ward's deal*). The exact kind of deal you are so gung-ho to go out and straight-jacket us into again is the exact reason we missed the playoffs all these years, and I'd be really interested to know why you continually ignore this whenever it is pointed out.   

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Very few things are all one way or the other.

 

The big advantage of a UFA is that you can get a proven NHL player and not have to trade an asset.

 

Anyways, I think that UFA's best role is to fill a gap for a team that is basically there otherwise. A key UFA can make a big difference, but you can't build a team of them. I think Whitney and Stillman were UFA's. And a well timed trade for Jusitn Williams added 30 goals too.

 

But you can't build a team on UFA's.

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.... when compared to most other teams. 

This is an excellent point that is very often understated on this board (comparison to other teams).  I'm as pumped as most about the changes going into this season, but any rational comparison of the Metro Division and East will tell you that it will be difficult to get a Playoff spot.

 

I'm also optimistic about the added talent, but want to see the on-ice result.  Now BD58 I'm not fully on board with your views, e.g., free agent signing, but you're saying at least a few things that should be paid attention to.  The Fan in me wants to be more hopeful, but can wait.

Edited by Manwolf

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I'm not gaga over the prospects for this season, but I feel better than I did last season and I am cautiously optimistic. I worry much more in goal than I do with forwards. If we get last season 2016 goaltending, I feel ok. If we get last season 2015 goaltending, not so much. I feel that RF kicked the tires on goalies, and the cost just didn't compute (and let's not get a Bryzgalov). On the forwards available in free agency, each one did come with some "buyer bewares" at the dollars and term they signed for. I was hoping for Okposo, but that's a big number for a lot of years and we don't have a John Tavares. Even if it was a go for RF, the player still has to want to sign here.

Francis is doing what he can to not make a bad deal that is going to hurt him down the road when the team is in a position to contend and needs that player to get over the hump. For now, this team needs to get to the hump.

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This is an excellent point that is very often understated on this board (comparison to other teams).  I'm as pumped as most about the changes going into this season, but any rational comparison of the Metro Division and East will tell you that it will be difficult to get a Playoff spot.

 

I'm also optimistic about the added talent, but want to see the on-ice result.  Now BD58 I'm not fully on board with your views, e.g., free agent signing, but you're saying at least a few things that should be paid attention to.  The Fan in me wants to be more hopeful, but can wait.

So you accept a comparison to other teams of something called "the talent gap." Apparently a new analytic has been developed that only you and BD are privy to. Please share.

 

Seriously though, we're in silly season: We're all comparing teams on paper. The bottom line is nobody knows what any of them will do on the ice, and that's the beauty of team sports: The sum of any team's parts can't be predicted. All you can do is try to assemble the pieces which, working together, produce what you want and then some.

 

Edit: But I will say this: The only two playoff locks I see in the Metro are Pitt and Washington. The Rags, Isles and Flyers all have serious questions.  

Edited by top-shelf-1

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How is the Semin deal not on this list...

I thought he'd have to be numero uno, but the UFA signing was ok, it was the extension. I think they focused on UFA signings. Otherwise, Sasha wins the gold.

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I thought he'd have to be numero uno, but the UFA signing was ok, it was the extension. I think they focused on UFA signings. Otherwise, Sasha wins the gold.

 

Yep, that's probably it.  Now, if the category was generic dumb $%#! moves...    well maybe it would be #2 to the DiPietro deal...

 

 

"What'cha doin' with that lawn mower blade Karl?"

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While its an interesting exercise to try to predict what every other team might do, it's a pretty tall order. Trying to predict what one team will do is hard enough.

 

I find the point cutoff more useful because there is a long historical precedent for it. 93 points makes the playoffs the majority of years, and 98 points is pretty much a lock. Last year 93 points made it.

 

We had 86 points last year, 7 points shy. We started in a huge hole and traded E and Versteeg at the deadline, and dropped off a bit in that last month. Also, we dropped at least 5 points from where we'd have been if we just were near .500 in OT and shootouts.

 

We need to find 3.5 more wins, or 2 more wins and a better OT record for the borderline, and 6 more wins for the sure in.

 

The other teams will do what they always do to lead to the cutoff. We just need to do what we need to do.

Edited by remkin

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So you accept a comparison to other teams of something called "the talent gap." Apparently a new analytic has been developed that only you and BD are privy to. Please share....

Please don't twist my quotes as I don't play that game.

 

I simply accept a context that we're competing with other teams, whether for talent or points or playoff spots.  I don't do forecasts about the Canes or other teams.  I simply net it out, enjoy competition, and respect what other teams are doing.

 

I appreciate that BD58 has raised the fact that the Canes are competing against others.  It adds context to speculating about which Cane will do what on whatever line this season.  Don't get me wrong as I enjoy reading what everyone posts about the Canes, speculative or not.

Edited by Manwolf

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Please don't twist my quotes as I don't play that game.

 

I simply accept a context that we're competing with other teams, whether for talent or points or playoff spots.  I don't do forecasts about the Canes or other teams.  I simply net it out, enjoy competition, and respect what other teams are doing.

 

I appreciate that BD58 has raised the fact that the Canes are competing against others.  It adds context to speculating about which Cane will do what on whatever line this season.  Don't get me wrong as I enjoy reading what everyone posts about the Canes, speculative or not.

No game-playing intended, Manwolf, and I'm sorry if you construed it as such. You referenced context. In replying to your OP, I simply went back and referenced the full context of the quote you used from BD, which was "...our talent gap compared to other teams..." Then I pointed out that, until there is a quantifiable metric/analytic that can somehow measure the unmeasurable - specifically, how ANY team will perform when all the parts come together - no such "comparison" can be made.

 

You and I agree about speculating on performance. It's fun; it's why we're all here. But when speculation ignores the facts of recent experience - let alone what the org itself has said it intends to do - yeah, I ask for further explanation. If BD or anyone else doesn't like being asked to back up their case with something more than emotion, that's fine. Without emotion, sports wouldn't be much fun. But that doesn't mean I'll just accept at face value any claim that seems completely untethered from generally accepted facts.

 

The facts in this case are that we have absolutely no idea how the changes we made will work out, and the same is true for every other team in the league. We wouldn't know that if Stempniak were Okposo, if TT were Evander Kane, or if Aho was Jeff Skinner in his rookie year. So BD's calling people "fools" for not "realizing" the existence of something called a "talent gap" that he alone (apparently) is privy to, before this team has even set foot on the ice--well sorry, but that's provocative and unnecessary. He does it all the time, and again, that's his prerogative, to the extent that the moderators allow it. But it's also mine to call BS on it.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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So... you're going to sit there and tell me with a straight look on your face that our top 6 in forwards stacks up to Pitt, Washington, NYR, NYI, and maybe even the Devils.  These are teams in our division that we will play more frequently.  You can say with full confidence that when you compare player for player in our top 6 vs their top 6 our players stack up to theirs in terms of points and regular season stats?  Please point out to me where we have a 100 point Sidney Crosby and even a 65 point/season Justin WIlliams or TJ Oshie is.  Better yet, please let me know where a Taylor Hall equivelant is on our team.  What is he like 70 points/season?  Go on.... find me that player.

 

Better yet, let's take a look at something more closer to home.  Let's compare goal tending stats to other teams.  Do we even want to go into that nightmare of a discussion?  Do we really want to compare Ward and Lack to Lundqvist,   Halak, Fluery/Murphy, Schneider, and Holtby.  Let me tell you something.... it's not pretty.  My point is that all of you guys are speculating what are players can/should do this season (which is fair) but I am also comparing what said players did last season to what players on others teams did last season by using actual stats and it's not looking good.  Yes - I am looking at actual numbers. Not some shot in the dark here is to TT throwing 65 points on the board this season number and I am the one who is being ignorant?

 

Go ahead and tell me that I have nothing to back up my argument all you want.  Then go ahead and take a look at who all is playing on the world cup teams and count how many Hurricanes are playing and then ask how many Hurricanes that were on the team last season are playing.  You will not find a single one.

Edited by bluedevil58

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I'm kind of glad our players aren't going to be involved in the World Cup thing.  I get the argument that our players aren't good enough, but I would much rather have them in Raleigh and not getting their knee blown out in a non NHL game.

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I'm kind of glad our players aren't going to be involved in the World Cup thing.  I get the argument that our players aren't good enough, but I would much rather have them in Raleigh and not getting their knee blown out in a non NHL game.

 

 

That I agree on.  I don't want another Eric Staal kind of injury to happen.

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So... you're going to sit there and tell me with a straight look on your face that our top 6 in forwards stacks up to Pitt, Washington, NYR, NYI, and maybe even the Devils...

If ignorance is bliss, BD58, you are the happiest man on the planet.

 

All I've said is that past performance doesn't indicate future success. If it did, the Canes - who returned the same lineup in 06-07 as the team that won it all the season before - would have repeated.

 

You simply can't know how any team will perform in advance, regardless how glowing (or average) the stats are. That's why they play the games. All you are doing, in your August boredom, is what you did last August too: bashing the team for not doing enough and for a "terrible season" that hasn't even been played. I'm really sorry you're so bored, but seriously... grow up.

 

And I'm still awaiting your explanation about how committing boatloads of money to some (supposed) hot-shot FA for an extended term - when we haven't seen the full effect of the ones we've already brought in, and have just freed ourselves from that awful contractual situation - makes any sense whatsoever. Go ahead Mr. Salesman: Sell me.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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