Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
remkin

2016 DRAFT talk

Recommended Posts

The playoffs are set. The draft? Well sort of.

 

We have a 90% chance of picking #13 if we don't trade the pick to move up or down.

 

We have around a 7% chance of winning a top 3 pick.

 

So for now, I will focus on picking #13.

 

(Don't forget we have LA's pick too. Right now that could be 18-30, but most likely around 22 if they exit early, and 26-30 if they make the Conference Finals or better. So, LA losing early would be nice).

 

 

I will add a series of posts after this one, to discuss options at #13 and trading that pick up. As we find out where LA's pick might land, that pick can also be traded up.

 

 

So, the way I try to thin the herd and get to a more manageable number of likely picks is to use the mock drafters. They have done the research, and at least get things narrowed down.

 

Picking mid round, is harder to project because more can happen above us, and the rankings are less solid lower down.

 

Mock drafts will continue to pour in, especially now that the top 14 are at least semi set (lottery), so this can be very fluid.

 

Next Post: the guys in the cross-hairs.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I posted all kinds of scouting and stuff, and then lost the whole thing in a boneheaded move.

 

I will add more later, but in brief: We are assuming we skip D men, that makes it a bit easier.

 

Given that there is more variability in the middle of the pack there has thusfar been an amazing amount of consistency in putting us on one guy. 5/8 most recent mock drafts, and McKensie and Button all have us on:

 

Tyson Jost: RW/C: 5'11' but stocky at 194.

 

I will add more analysis, but feel free to have at it on all of these guys.

 

Above us:

 

Michael McCleod: 6'2" 180. Highly skillled power center, most have going 10-11, but some have lower.

 

This guy would be great.

 

Clayton Keller: 5'10" 168. Smaller guy, but fast and highly skilled with big numbers.

 

Serious skill, though small.

 

 

Below us:

 

Julien Gauthier: 6'3" 225. Big guy. generally put below us at 14-15.

 

Keifer Bellows: 6'0" 195: high skill but vs. lower competition. Generally put around 15-17.

 

 

Those are the names that most consistently fall around us at #13. But there are others that are generally below 14, but have one or two mocks liking them higher: One of these guys could slip to our LA pick if they exit the playoffs pre WCF.

 

Max Jones: 6'3". Big w/ NHL game, but not flashy skilled or massively gaudy numbers. Ranked all over the place.

Riley Tufte: 6'5". Huge, mostly ranked 17-20, but one puts him at #12.

Logan Brown: 6'6". Huger. 14-16, with two putting him below 20.

Luke Kunin: 6'0". U Wisconsin. Talented playmaker. 18-21.

Vtityaz Podolsk: Russian. High skill. 16-18.

 

 

Again, I have a lot more analysis on these guys. And will postulate some on trading up. But please feel free to chip in any thoughts or analysis on these guys or anyone I might have missed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been keeping up with the prospect pool this season to an extent.  There seems to be a general consensus on the Top 10, but after that, the draft projections are all of the place.  It seems as though there is also a general consensus that there's a significant drop-off in talent past the top 20.  Here are a few key names that may be available to us at #13:

 

Logan Brown

Clayton Keller

Tyson Jost

Kieffer Bellows

Max Jones

 

Logan Brown's a guy i'm sure Super_Dave would love.  He's 6'6 220lbs, and he was born in Raleigh.  He started off the season slow, but really picked up the 2nd half of the season.  It's fun listening to some talking heads about him.  Some are saying he could be the next Getzlaf, while others say he's the next Brian Boyle.  This is my preferred pick if available.

 

Clayton Keller is the anit-Super_Dave pick, more along the lines of Remkin (haha).  He's been a scoring machine in the league he's playing in.  Problem is, he's pretty small at 5'10, 170lbs.

 

Tyson Jost is an intriguing prospect.  He's decent size at 6' 195lbs, and he too has been a scoring machine.  Problem is, and the reason he's not been getting that much attention compared to other prospects, he's playing in the BCHL, where there's not a lot of high-end competition.  Very very similar to Kyle Turris.  I'd take him if he's the best option available.

 

Kieffer Bellows is a guy that we all would love.  Two-way player who plays a physical game and can score.  My next favorite after Brown.

 

Max Jones is an enigma.  He's the type of player that Bluedevil58 would love.  Very physical, too physical actually, and has some offensive flare.  He was projected as a top 5 pick in preseason mock drafts, but has not been able to produce as much offense as projected, even on a deep team in the London Knights.  Would be an absolute steal with LA's pick, but i'd steer clear with ours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for starting us on this road, rem, but just sorry that our yearend reward for the past too many has been looking forward to the draft!!

A poster has put forth a very similar list with Jost, Gautier and McLeod taken prior to our pick, and Grundstrom, Howden and Brown further down. The poster apparently lives "overseas", thus garnered his list, as you appear to, from mock drafters. His also has more info, which I'm sure yours included before you deleted your original.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm betting again that some of the first words we hear about the draft are........" With the first pick in the 2016 draft, the Edmonton Oilers select......."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm betting again that some of the first words we hear about the draft are........" With the first pick in the 2016 draft, the Edmonton Oilers select......."

 

58487729.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to provide two really useful resources to anyone who wants to follow mocks and project trades.

 

Most people know of this one, but a really nice compilation of mock drafts is:

 

http://dcprosportsreport.com/NHLMocks.htm

 

They do miss some, but seems the best compilation out there.

 

 

This one is really helpful for trying to calculate what the relative cost of swapping picks is using a point system derived from actual past trades. They suggest that GM's use something like this in actual practice: I use it whenever I propose trading up or down in the draft.

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, using the second link and doing basic math, in theory the following should move us up from #13.

 

We are picking #13, #21 (estimated LA), #43, #53 (LA) in the first two rounds. Sparing the math, and understanding that in point of fact moving up and down requires a willing partner and as such really doesn't happen often, these are the numbers:

 

Trade our #13 pick and package with _____ moves us to ______.

 

#53 pick: #10

#43 pick: #8-9*

#22 pick #4-5*

 

#43 and #53: #6-7*

#21 and #43: #3

#21 and #53: #3-4*

 

#21 and #43 and #53: #2-3*

 

 

*Wherever there is a range it came out in between them, and we probably have to sweeten the pot to move up: add our third rounder to move up a notch. Get their third rounder to move down a notch.

 

As soon as LA's pick is known, we can do a similar calculation for moving up and down from their pick. The bottom of the range costs far less to move up.

 

As an example, if LA misses the WCF and the pick ends up #22, we could move that up to #12 with both seconds. Moves us up 10 spots. Whereas our higher pick would move up 6 spots.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bearing in mind that recent drafting strongly suggests: "In Ron and Co. we trust". I generally favor the idea of moving up to get elite talent. 

 

In an ideal world we could lessen the impact of losing a pick by moving Ryan Murphy in the deal.

 

There are a lot of permuations. We could bump both first round picks up a notch by trading both second round picks for instance.

 

 

So what are the levels of the draft as reported by most analysts? Their are multiple tiers. But one where guys are universally above their piers seems to suggest a top 6 forwards in a fairly consistent order:

 

1. Auston Matthews, C. : the stud of the draft. Only available to the lottery winner. Clear #1.

2. Patrik Laine, RW. Big skilled Finn. Our entire first two rounds picks and a third, could maybe get him.

3. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW: Big skilled Finn. Our #22 and #43 is supposed to do it. I bet we need to add something.

 

Those 3 are the uber elite. No D men projected by anyone to go ahead of them, though #4 is mostly agreed on too:

 

4. Mattew Tkachuk. LW. Big skilled. Our #22 and #53, and we get their third rounder.

 

After this there are two Dmen who sometimes slide into the 5-7 slots: Chychrun, and Joulevi. This is interesting because if they are taken, it could lower the price to get the next guys from what I have listed:

 

5. Alex Nylander, LW. High skill, 6'0", but slight build, (I think overrated, but he has the flash) (our #22 pick, plus something small back to us).

 

6. Pierre-Luc Dubois, A big skilled sniper w/ a wicked shot. Probably drops to at least #7 w/ Chyhrun getting picked ahead of him.

 

So, could be had for both seconds, and a sweetener to us.

 

This would be an intriguing move because it would still leave us with our LA first round pick, but get us into the top 6 forwards.

 

There is then a gap filled w/ D men. This would loosely indicate that there is a drop off, or at least more unknowns, after Dubois.

 

The next grouping seems to be, in order:

 

Micheal McCleod: big, skllled, "power center". Projected 10-12. (Our #53 pick alone would move us up to #10).

Clayton Keller: small, offensive dynamo. Projected 11-12.

 

Tyson Jost: 5'11" 195: almost uniformly projected to us at #13.

 

 

There are so many options. In the end, the #13 pick moving will hopefully depend on what Francis and company thinks of Jost or the guys around there: Gauthier, Jones, Tufte, Brown, Bellows, Keller, etc. But since we don't know....

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love the idea of getting to Puljujarvi.

 

From a very recent report: (Last Word on Sports):

 

With his size, skill and skating ability, Jesse Puljujarvi has the potential to be a first line, franchise defining winger in the NHL.  His playing style is comparable to Marian Hossa, however we caution that this is a style comparison only and not one based on skill levels.  Puljujarvi appears to be very close to NHL ready, and it would not be shocking to see him in the NHL next season.

 

He is big. (6'3"/200). While not a bruiser, he is hard to knock of the puck and uses his body to shield guys. But can score with soft, skilled hands.

 

This is what we need. It would theoretically cost our #22 and both seconds. That is a high cost. If there were any way to sub in Murphy for our higher second rounder, we would get a really nice second round pick for depth.

 

To be frank, I don't see Francis moving our entire non first round draft. I think he at least wants to keep one of the late first or early second.

 

But Puljujarvi is that potential world class RW, that are so hard to find. That could lock down that spot on line one for years, AND might be NHL ready immediately.

 

We have PDG, Lindholm, Skinner, Nordy, Nestrasil, and probably Aho. If we could find a way to make that move and keep our higher second (toss in Murphy, or maybe McKeown), we could add another high second rounder for depth developement.

 

We could roll out:

 

Skinner-Rask-PDG (Trade Vet)

Nesty-Staal-Nordstrom

Puljujjarvi-Lindholm-Aho

 

(By the following year that third line could be our #1 line).

 

And RF could find us a skilled veteran in a cap trade, or UFA to slide into a spot or provide depth. PDG could toggle to the 4th line if we added vet depth.

 

We have built some nice depth and nice future options that are in the system.

 

We need elite.

 

Tyson Jost has semi to elite potential, but he has not faced elite competition, and is not a big guy.

 

 

I just think compiling lots more depth or hit or miss guys is not the mission this year unless RF long term plan is to move someone out. If we are building around our current core, we need elite, and then maybe a Versteeg-type 50 point vet more than a gaggle of late first. and second rounders. But that's just one guy's opinion.

 

I will add this. If GMRF and crew like the mid first guys listed way above: McCleod, Keller, Jost, Guathier, etc, We could trade up the #22 pick (assuming LA loses in the first two rounds) and get two guys in that range.

 

Most of the guys in that range have serious skill but some downside risk. Taking two would spread that risk out.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I love the idea of getting a Pul

 

I love the idea of getting to Puljujarvi.

. . .

 

Me too, but I don't see it happening, at least not for the anywhere near the price that author has modeled.  He notes that the data he used for his model don't include a single trade for a pick higher than 7th, so the model basically extrapolates at the high end.  And I suspect that no model would accurately cover a pick for an "uber prospect".   I bet you'd have to tack on a significant premium in those cases in order to even get a GMs attention.

 

Think of it this way: if you're in a position to draft Laine or Puljujarvi, what would you want back from the Canes to make that deal?  I might consider Fleury and LAs 1st rounder, but even that's not a definite.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah trades are tough to predict or even lay out. Fluery and LA's first is a #7 and say #22. Which adds up to the right number of "points" but still somehow feels light from out end..

 

I will agree that most GM's don't pass on those uber elite guys. They are too hard to find, and they don't want to be the guy who traded away "insert All Star name here". They overwhelmingly ask for the moon, don't get it, and walk up and pick the stud with their pick.

 

More likely we could move up to say the #7 slot and pick up a guy like DuBois.

 

Still, even if we sweeten the pot, I'd like to see it.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just pick the BPA at every pick.

Biggest

Player

Available

Seriously, this team needs skill up front in this draft. Another good goalie prospect is need #2.

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6328641/2016_Final_Rankings_Release.0.pdf

 

(The link has lots of info on the top guys. Clearly we'd have to trade up to get any of them).

 

This is the top of the draft according to NHL central scouting.

 

They have guys broken down by Europe and NA.

 

Europe:

 

1. Matthews

2. Laine

3. Puljujarvi

 

NA:

 

1. Pierre-Luc Dubois

2. Matthew Tkachuk

3. Alex Nylander

 

They then mention two D men: Chychrun and Juolevi. Widely mock drafted into the 4-8 slots.

 

What is mildly interesting is that they put Dubois ahead of Tkachuk.

 

What is very interesting is that every forward in that top 6 except Nylander, is a big, imposing player with skill.

 

Trading up still sounds good to me, but probably not for Nylander. I know that is hard to hear. Somehow in this whole skill vs. size thing, I get pegged as liking small players, which isn't true. I think especially this team could use a nice big forward with skill. Nylander is flashy, but there are questions of two way game and stat padding with lots of secondary assists. His brother is making a big splash right now too, which may up his value. But Nylander, while he would be a great player, is not the guy I'd trade up for.

 

I'd consider trading up for any of the other top 5 though.

 

Also, top goalies listed:

 

1. Evan Fitzpatrick, 2. Filip Gustavsson.

 

Carter Hart is listed as first go go by most mock drafts though.

Dylan Wells is also in the mix, second round.

 

Vast majority of mock drafts have these goalies going second round, with Hart first to go even ahead of Fitz/Gust.

 

While most mocks have one of the top 3 goalies still there for our first second rounder, none have us picking one of them. I don't know. If we use both first rounders on forwards, we might. Nedel...has been awsome, but goalies take a few years to develop, and you can often get the best ones in the draft early second round.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trade some of our draft slots plus some of our scraps who played forward (Terry, McClement, Nash, etc) to get a 26-30 year old scoring winger capable of 20+ goals every year who will bring in a winning attitude and some swagger that this team badly needs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trade some of our draft slots plus some of our scraps who played forward (Terry, McClement, Nash, etc) to get a 26-30 year old scoring winger capable of 20+ goals every year who will bring in a winning attitude and some swagger that this team badly needs.

 

 

Well, with Terry and Nash being UFAs, them plus $5 would get RF a coffee at Starbucks.  They're not worth mentioning in any trade discussion at this point unless RF signs them first.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, with Terry and Nash being UFAs, them plus $5 would get RF a coffee at Starbucks.  They're not worth mentioning in any trade discussion at this point unless RF signs them first.

 

Made that a little more succinct. :grin:  Actually, Nash might bring back something, but I doubt he'd bring back anything that would be of more value than keeping him here as a depth forward at a very low cost.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/4/16/11440008/2016-nhl-draft-profile-clayton-keller-deserves-to-be-in-fourth

 

Just a case for Keller going as high as #4. He is also listed potentially still there for us, though most have him going a couple spots ahead of us. If Francis liked him, could move up a slot or two for not much, if he does drop down to 11-12.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I figure this can be considered draft talk, since it's the only reason i'm mentioning this - the Kings lost both games at home and now head to San Jose down 2 games to none.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely draft talk realm. This year we get to consider two picks of course. Ours at #13 (90% chance) and the Kings. The draft order for playoff teams is just a tiny bit complex. Actually fairly complex in terms of predicting. I will take a stab at it.

 

SCF loser and winner pick 29-30

Conference Finals losers pick 27-28

Division Winners: next 4 by record

Then pure record.

 

Problem is overlap and which teams go to the final 4.

LA finished #8, or picking #23. However...

 

LA did us a solid by slipping out of winning the division. If they had won it, the best we could have done was 25-26 range. The 4 division winners pick after the top 4 playoff teams (Conference Finals, SCF).

 

If LA goes to at least the WCF, we pick 27-30 depending on how they do.

 

If LA exits first two rounds, then it depends on which teams slot into the finals, and which teams are out, but if you're still reading...

 

If LA exits round 1 or 2, best I can make out we could pick #19-22. But #20 would require the three teams that missed their division, but had more points than the Kings: Chicago, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh to be OUT before the Conference Finals. Since they will slot in behind us in the draft in that case. We also want the Division winners NOT to make the conference finals.

 

To pick #19, by my calculations would require a near perfect over-achieving of just the right teams and is highly, highly unlikely, and I think the best we can do. #20 is close to as unlikely.

 

If 4 of Rangers, Islanders, Tampa, Philly, Nash, and Detroit are the final 4. We would 21 or better. (St Louis is playing Chicago, so one of them will lose and slot ahead of LA's pick). If the winner of ST Louis - Chicago loses in round 2, and Pittsburgh loses round 1 or 2, and the remaining sub LA teams are the 4 finalists, we pick 19. That is a massive stretch.

 

The range seems to be #19-23 if LA is out early, with around #22 plus minus one highly likely.

 

 

I'm sure that cleared it up. :blink:

 

Bottom line:

 

LA out early: think #21-23

LA out late: #27-30

 

The exact number hardly matters in terms of predicting picks because by that point it is far far from that accurate anyways.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So of interest in the latest rankings on NHL.com is the movement up and down of certain guys.

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectbrowse.htm?cat=1&sort=finalRank&year=2016

 

The above link shows the whole list. But they are ranked separately by NA and European. This is interesting in that using mock drafts to try to blend the two lists comes up with three distinct blocks for forwards. Since Auston Matthews is playing in Europe he is ranked as European.

 

1. A. Matthews, Laine, Puljuvari.  Really solidified as top 3 overall, all from Europe list.

2. Then it's all N. American all the way to #20 or so.

3. Outside of the top 3 Europeans above, the next three are at best late first round: Rubstov, Asplund, Grundstrom, and some have them early second.

 

Since we're not in the market for the top three (barring a blockbuster trade with say Edmonton) we are likely going to go North American with that first pick at #13.

 

Anyways, the guys moving up and down the most:

 

UP:

 

Dubouis: from #7 to #1 North American Skater.  (The mock drafts have not reflected this move, having him after Tkachuk still).

 

Logan Brown: from #14 to #7 NA Skater, (#10 slot for pick). Most mock drafts have him much lower (the newest mock has him at #25).

 

Down:

 

Julien Gauthier: #4 to #12 NA skater. This is a big drop. moving him to #15 or later pick. (mock drafts still have him around #9-11).

 

Michael McCleod: #6 to #13 NA skater (#16-18 pick). Again, mock drafts still tend to put him #10-13.

 

The most recent mock draft has the Canes on McCleod at #13.

 

 

 

Dubouis would take a big move up the board. Brown, Gauthier and McCleod could all be there at #13.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it is absolutely stunning to me how many rankings and mock drafts shuffle guys around after about the top 3, but somehow we are continuously pegged on Tyson Jost at #13.

 

So basically he is a guy who despite being drafted, skipped Canadian Junior Hockey in order to stay eligible for college (committed to NCAA champs N Dakota next year). Thus he played in a lower level league, the BCHL, and proceeded to put up 104 points, including 42 goals in 48 games.

 

So the kid can burn out the goal lamp at that level, but, the concern was:

 

He will represent Canada at the IIHF Under 18 World Championships this spring. While there are some concerns surrounding the fact that Jost has mostly played less than ideal competition in the BCHL, his performance at the Under-18 could go a long way to dispel those concerns.

 

So, how is he doing there? (it is going on now):

 

The UND recruit tied an all-time Hockey Canada record on Thursday during his five-point performance in Canada’s 9-1 rout of Switzerland in the quarterfinals.

 

Jost reached 14 points for the tournament, which ties Connor McDavid, last year’s No. 1 overall pick in the NHL Draft, for the most ever by a Canadian player at the IIHF World Under-18 Championship.

 

He has tallied at least a point in every game of the tournament and is the event’s overall leading scorer.

 

Full story: http://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/4015308-world-u18-tyson-jost-ties-canadian-record-rout

 

So, probably question answered. Yes, he can do it against top competition. Of course this may raise his stock and he may now move above #13, but still, more than half the mock drafts have us pegged to him so:

 

I'll add a scouting report from the article quoted first.

 

Tyson Jost has great hands, and the ability to stickhandle in a phone booth. Jost is an excellent playmaker. He protects the puck extremely well, and has the ability to extend plays, and allow a teammate to get open. Once that happens he has the ability to feather a pass through a small opening, putting it tape-to-tape to create a scoring chance. Jost can also be a a goal scorer. He also has a very quick release on his shot, which helps him to fool goalies. He could stand to add more power to his wrist shot though, and this may come with increased muscle. He is also willing to go to the net, where he can use his excellent hand-eye co-ordination to tip in pucks, or pounce on rebounds. Jost battles hard in front of the net and in the corners. This is another area where more muscle would help though, in order to be ready to play that game at higher levels. Jost also has very good hockey sense, and seems to almost always make the smart play with the puck.

 

Tyson Jost is an excellent skater. He is shifty with good acceleration, agility and edgework. Jost has the ability to full defenders with his ability to quickly change directions as wells his ability to change speeds. Jost has very good top end speed, and when he does get past a defender he can drive to the front of the net. His balance is decent, but this is another area that would improve with added core body strength.

 

Jost shows commitment to back check, and provides good back pressure when defending against the rush. He reads the play well, and has good positioning which allows Jost to create turnovers, which he quickly transitions into offense. He supports his defence with a willingness to get involved physically in the corners or in front of the net.

 

Full article: http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/04/12/tyson-jost-scouting-report-2016-nhl-draft-13/

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Sharks!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Thank you McBain.  In game 4, he took a crucial penalty that lead to the GW goal against.  The trade that keeps on giving!

Edited by wxray1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Jost story is interesting too in terms of the benefits of keeping guys back, even though, in his case, it was self-imposed.

 

Confidence is such a huge part of hockey. When you push people into roles before they are ready for them you risk sapping their confidence. I am so glad we have in RF and BP a brain trust that really gets this, that assesses each guy individually and that challenges them just enough that they can build confidence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...