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LakeLivin

Poll: Would You Trade Justin Faulk?

Would you trade Justin Faulk?  

42 members have voted

  1. 1. Would you trade Justin Faulk for either Matt Duchene or Leon Draisaitl??

    • Strong Yes
      6
    • Yes
      10
    • Not Sure
      6
    • No
      12
    • Strong No
      8


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Sorry if I misrepresented you coastal.  I think I'll just stay away from metrics in this thread from here on out.  No matter how everyone arrives at their conclusion, it ultimately comes down to opinion and I think we know where most people stand. 

 

Metrics, especially for d-men, is such a complicated issue it's really deserving of it's own thread.  And metrics for d-men is such a complicated issue I'm sure not going to start that thread;  I just wouldn't have time right now to do it justice.  What I'd really like is to hear what the Canes metrics guru Eric Tulsky has to say about the issue.  Which I bet won't happen anytime soon.  I suspect that much of what he does is guarded within the organization like state secrets.   RF and Peters both mentioned him recently.  RF said something along the lines of considering the advanced metrics in conjunction with traditional hockey tools.  Peters sounded even more positive to me, said Tulsky's stuff was very helpful.  

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A name that may be overlooked in this whole scenario is Nicolas Roy.  I know he was a 4th rounder, but he was initially a top 15 prospect in last year's draft, led the QMJHL in goals, and had 90pts in 63 games.  He's big, has nice hands, and isn't afraid to drop gloves.  He could become a legit center in the NHL one day.

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A name that may be overlooked in this whole scenario is Nicolas Roy.  I know he was a 4th rounder, but he was initially a top 15 prospect in last year's draft, led the QMJHL in goals, and had 90pts in 63 games.  He's big, has nice hands, and isn't afraid to drop gloves.  He could become a legit center in the NHL one day.

 

Roy's got promise, certainly. He's not the immediate answer, IMO, and that's sort of the point here - it's possible to manage both short-term goals and long-term. I see Roy in the AHL (if he's old enough) next season, to give him that stepping-stone to the speed and all that everyone says is different in the NHL. If he makes the jump straight to the NHL, great, but I'm not expecting it.

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Roy's got promise, certainly. He's not the immediate answer, IMO, and that's sort of the point here - it's possible to manage both short-term goals and long-term. I see Roy in the AHL (if he's old enough) next season, to give him that stepping-stone to the speed and all that everyone says is different in the NHL. If he makes the jump straight to the NHL, great, but I'm not expecting it.

I understand what you're saying, but to the original post, I don't think Draisitl's anymore of the immediate answer. And as far as Duchene goes, if he could put up those same numbers, at best it would be plugging one hole while creating another one.

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I understand what you're saying, but to the original post, I don't think Draisitl's anymore of the immediate answer. And as far as Duchene goes, if he could put up those same numbers, at best it would be plugging one hole while creating another one.

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, then. Draisaitl's a heck of a lot more immediate than Roy, seeing as how Draisaitl's now got over 100 games of NHL experience and Roy signed his ELC two weeks ago. One more complication with Roy's career is that he doesn't turn 20 until Feb. 5, 2017 - halfway through next season. Will he be allowed to play in the AHL because he turns 20 during the season? I don't know. If not, he's at least one year away from the NHL (don't think the 'canes want to waste a year of his ELC just because his birthday falls in the middle of the season) and maybe two (if he ends up spending a season in the AHL after his 'over-age' season in the QMJHL).

 

As far as Duchene's concerned, there have been issues raised about him in previous posts, but he did have a career-high 30 goals in 2015-16, though his assists were down significantly as well. Even with that, Duchene was knocking on the door of a 60-point season, and the Hurricanes have been lacking (pardon the pun) that level of scoring for a while.

 

Is trading Faulk worth either Draisaitl or Duchene? I voted 'yes', but couldn't go 'strong yes' exactly because no player is without warts, so to speak. As GMRF says, the deal has to make sense.

Edited by JonKerfoot

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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, then. Draisaitl's a heck of a lot more immediate than Roy, seeing as how Draisaitl's now got over 100 games of NHL experience and Roy signed his ELC two weeks ago. One more complication with Roy's career is that he doesn't turn 20 until Feb. 5, 2017 - halfway through next season. Will he be allowed to play in the AHL because he turns 20 during the season? I don't know. If not, he's at least one year away from the NHL (don't think the 'canes want to waste a year of his ELC just because his birthday falls in the middle of the season) and maybe two (if he ends up spending a season in the AHL after his 'over-age' season in the QMJHL).

As far as Duchene's concerned, there have been issues raised about him in previous posts, but he did have a career-high 30 goals in 2015-16, though his assists were down significantly as well. Even with that, Duchene was knocking on the door of a 60-point season, and the Hurricanes have been lacking (pardon the pun) that level of scoring for a while.

Is trading Faulk worth either Draisaitl or Duchene? I voted 'yes', but couldn't go 'strong yes' exactly because no player is without warts, so to speak. As GMRF says, the deal has to make sense.

Draisitl has 1 full season under his belt. He had a very lackluster campaign in the 14-15 season, and his numbers this year, as mentioned, was tied with Skinner and only 3pts ahead of Staal/Rask.

As far as Duchene, Faulk's 82 game projection is similar to Duchene's. That, to me, is a lateral move at best, and we'd be taking on the bigger salary. Like you said, we'll agree to disagree.

There are other routes to obtaining a #1 center that doesn't involve trading our best player.

Roy btw is not eligible for the AHL next season, as you have to be 20 prior to the start of the season.

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There are other routes to obtaining a #1 center that doesn't involve trading our best player.

I'd love to hear what you think these might be, besides the obvious disaster of a year that leads to a first round pick in the top 5.

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Draisitl has 1 full season under his belt. He had a very lackluster campaign in the 14-15 season, and his numbers this year, as mentioned, was tied with Skinner and only 3pts ahead of Staal/Rask.

As far as Duchene, Faulk's 82 game projection is similar to Duchene's. That, to me, is a lateral move at best, and we'd be taking on the bigger salary. Like you said, we'll agree to disagree.

There are other routes to obtaining a #1 center that doesn't involve trading our best player.

Roy btw is not eligible for the AHL next season, as you have to be 20 prior to the start of the season.

 

PK, you realize that Draisaitl is only 20yo, right? I'm not trying to be snarky, I'm just surprised that you aren't more impressed by a 20yo in his first full year putting up the same number of points as the Canes points leader (Skinner).  

I'm trying to change your mind about trading Faulk, just surprised how you view Draisaitl givenhis age and most projections about his future.

 

Just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about Hanifin? I mean, his season wasn't especially good per se.  I don't think anyone could objectively consider it as good as Draisaitl's.  But when I consider that it's Hanifin's 1st full season and that he's only 19yo, I'm extremely optimistic about where he's headed.  I guess I view Draisaitl in a similar light. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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Draisitl has 1 full season under his belt. He had a very lackluster campaign in the 14-15 season, and his numbers this year, as mentioned, was tied with Skinner and only 3pts ahead of Staal/Rask.

As far as Duchene, Faulk's 82 game projection is similar to Duchene's. That, to me, is a lateral move at best, and we'd be taking on the bigger salary. Like you said, we'll agree to disagree.

There are other routes to obtaining a #1 center that doesn't involve trading our best player.

Roy btw is not eligible for the AHL next season, as you have to be 20 prior to the start of the season.

 

Thanks for the clarification on Roy. So he won't be on the Hurricanes in 2016-17 unless GMRF and staff feel it makes sense for him to burn the first year of his ELC that way.

 

As far as Roy and his 90 points in the QMJHL this past season, I would point to Draisaitl's last two seasons with the Prince Albert Raiders of the WHL - 38/67/105 in 64 games in 2013-14 and 19/34/53 in 32 games in 2014-15. Projecting the 2014-15 numbers over a full 64-game season gives you 38/68/106.

 

Insofar as Faulk's 82-game numbers projection being "similar" to Duchene's, I beg to differ. Faulk played 64 games with 16 goals and 21 assists for 37 points. Projecting thats over 82 games, Faulk ends up with 16 * (64/82) = 16 * 1.2815 = 20.5, say 21 goals and 21 * 1.2815 = 26.9, say 27 assists, for a total of 48 points.

 

Duchene played 76 games in the 2015-16 season, scored 30 goals (a career high) and 29 assists (down from his career high of 47 in 2013-14). His 82-game projection would be 30 * (82/76) = 30 * 1.0789 = 32.36, say 32 goals and 29 * 1.0789 = 31.3, say 31 assists.

 

32/31/63 doesn't look like a lateral move from 21/27/48 to me. Not quite vertical, I'll admit, but 15 extra points a season could win a few games, maybe.

 

Now, there are arguments to be made about defense vs. forward that skew the numbers, but I don't know that that effect is going to be that great.

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PK, you realize that Draisaitl is only 20yo, right? I'm not trying to be snarky, I'm just surprised that you aren't more impressed by a 20yo in his first full year putting up the same number of points as the Canes points leader (Skinner).  

I'm trying to change your mind about trading Faulk, just surprised how you view Draisaitl givenhis age and most projections about his future.

 

Just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about Hanifin? I mean, his season wasn't especially good per se.  I don't think anyone could objectively consider it as good as Draisaitl's.  But when I consider that it's Hanifin's 1st full season and that he's only 19yo, I'm extremely optimistic about where he's headed.  I guess I view Draisaitl in a similar light. 

 

Draisaitl, to me, is a product of an environment.  He was playing a lot of top line minutes due to significant injuries from McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins.  He was playing on lines with Hall (who's a top 10 scorer), Eberle, Yakopuv, and Purcell.  He plays for Todd McClellan, who is an offensive-minded coach.  Rask and Jordan had more goals than him.  I think he's made tremendous improvements on his previous year, and I have no doubt he'll improve on those numbers going forward, but I just can't look at his stat sheet and say "I'm trading our most valuable asset for him."  I've seen scattered Oilers games, and I attended the game in Carolina, and in that game he looked ineffective, kind of blah.

 

Like I've said, I'm not opposed to trading Faulk, so you don't have to convince me, I just don't want it to be for either guy mentioned.

 

As far as Hanifin, I think he had an overall solid season for a rookie.  The first 15 or so games, he was very tentative, and not engaging offensively or defensively, he was just focused on not making a mistake.  As the season went along, he expanded on his game at higher rate than I thought he would.  I mean not for nothing, but he was our 2nd highest scoring Dman.  I think he was tied with Pesce as far as overall level of play.  Did he have as good of a season as Draisaitl?  Probably not, but he's a year younger, with less amateur experience under his belt, and playing a harder position.  To be honest, I probably wouldn't trade Hanifin straight up for Draisaitl either.

 

We are finally on the verge of having a championship-level defense on this team, I don't want to tamper with it unless there's a home-run deal, that's all.

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I'd love to hear what you think these might be, besides the obvious disaster of a year that leads to a first round pick in the top 5.

 

Haha, no more top 5 picks for us.

 

Drafting is the best way to go still.  There are a plethora of quality centers available around our #13 pick, as most of the top 10 prospects in the draft are either wingers or defensemen.  The same year we took Lindholm, we passed on Monahan at #6, and Dylan Larkin at #15.  

 

Also, this thread created on hypothetical trades.  There's been speculations about Duchene, but Joe Sakic has come out and said he's not trading him.  Also, while there's speculation on Edmonton making players available this offseason, the speculation has been on RNH, Nail, Eberle, and their 1st round pick.  They feel like they have their #1 and #2 centers.  Also, I don't know if I said this on here or another board, but I argued there'd be more competition getting players like the two mentioned through the trade route, where trades are going to be the only route for some cash-strapped teams to improve their rosters.  For example, there were 21 teams listed as being in on Jonathan Drouin before the deadline.  There would be similar competition for those other guys.

 

There is a real #1 center available in UFA, that we can afford and most other teams can't.  Again I don't know if it was here on somewhere else that I saw, but Stamkos making $10.5 million in Toronto is the same as him making $8.5 million in Tampa when accounting for taxes and the value of the canadian dollar.  We could be a player this offseason.  Also, Backes is available as well.  He's not as high scoring as a lot of other players, but he'd fit in well in Peter's system, and add a completely new dynamic to this team that hasn't been here in a long long time.

 

Finding a legit #1 center is not an easy task or perfect science, it may be awhile be for the position is filled.  As far as short term and long term, I'm more interested in finding a legit #1 goalie, instead of entering the mindless Cam Ward debates year in and out.  Unlike center, and besides Corey Schneider, I think the top 16 goalies are all in the playoffs right now.  I think solidifying this position more so than anything would be the difference in this team making the playoffs next season.

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There is a real #1 center available in UFA, that we can afford and most other teams can't.  Again I don't know if it was here on somewhere else that I saw, but Stamkos making $10.5 million in Toronto is the same as him making $8.5 million in Tampa when accounting for taxes and the value of the canadian dollar.  We could be a player this offseason.  Also, Backes is available as well.  He's not as high scoring as a lot of other players, but he'd fit in well in Peter's system, and add a completely new dynamic to this team that hasn't been here in a long long time.

 

Would that this were true, but it isn't. All NHL contracts are in US dollars, so if Toronto offers Stamkos 10.5 mil a season, that's 10.5 mil anywhere. Taxes would be different in different locales, but not *that* different.

 

Backes is an interesting idea, true.  As you say, not a scorer like a Stamkos, but a cut above some of the other players the HUrricanes have now.

 

Oh, and to loop back to Draisaitl yes again (I know, it's boring ;-) ), I was reading an analytics post about Draisaitl's "slump" this season. It wasn't the article so much as a couple of the comments - one said that Drai's slump had more to do with skating with an "uncreative" Taylor Hall than anything else, and the author of the blog article was completely in agreement. Yeah, it's only a blog, but just 'cause a guy is a point-a-game type doesn't mean plays don't die on his stick.

 

I don't know if we're allowed to post links to other blogs, so I'll just tell anyone who is interested to search for "The Curious Case of Leon Draisaitl" on a blog called Beer League Heroes. Interesting stuff.

 

Oh, and a minor correction to my last post - that half-season that Draisaitl played in the WHL in 2014-15 wasn't with Prince Albert (guess he canned them) but with the Kelowna Rockets.

Edited by JonKerfoot

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I probably should have asked the question along the lines of "would you trade Faulk for a top-30ish forward" instead of specifying Draisaitl and Duchene since projecting them as top-30ish is also an opinion.  They just seemed like the 2 that might fit the category and be available.   I was thinking that Taylor Hall would have even less chance of being available than Draisaitl, but I'm reading that that might not be the case.

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you think of Hall in comparison to Draisaitl and Duchene?  One down side is that he's a LW, probably our position of least need.  I'm asking about Hall as compared to Draisaitl & Duchene, not if you'd trade Faulk for him.  My guess is that for the vast majority here, whichever side of the hypothetical Faulk trade side you're, adding Hall to the question wouldn't change your answer. 

Edited by LakeLivin

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I probably should have asked the question along the lines of "would you trade Faulk for a top-30ish forward" instead of specifying Draisaitl and Duchene since projecting them as top-30ish is also an opinion.  They just seemed like the 2 that might fit the category and be available.   I was thinking that Taylor Hall would have even less chance of being available than Draisaitl, but I'm reading that that might not be the case.

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you think of Hall in comparison to Draisaitl and Duchene?  One down side is that he's a LW, probably our position of least need.  I'm asking about Hall as compared to Draisaitl & Duchene, not if you'd trade Faulk for him.  My guess is that for the vast majority here, whichever side of the hypothetical Faulk trade side you're, adding Hall to the question wouldn't change your answer. 

 

Well, I'd mentioned this before, but let me see if I can post this. I was looking around for analytic info about Draisaitl and found this blog post:

 

www.beerleagueheroes.com/curious-case-leon-draisaitl/

 

To your point about Taylor Hall, make sure to read the comments to this post. One of the commenters delves into the Taylor Hall Effect, and the author of the post congratulates the commenter for his "accuratehonest" analysis. Sounds like Hall's defensive lapses are affecting how "Dr. Drai" plays the center postion....

 

Here's an article that addresses why Edmonton should trade Hall:

 

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-the-pros-and-the-cons-of-the-edmonton-oilers-trading-taylor-hall

Edited by JonKerfoot

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Jon, in that article the author is taking a "straw man" case that Hall should be traded to test the hypothesis that he should be.  His ultimate conclusion is that he shouldn't be in spite of the Oil's need to balance their offense and defense. 

 

After our brief discussion about +- I did a quick search to see if there were better, easily accessible metrics out there and found this site: http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/   (I think someone else here posted a chart from the site)

You can generate charts with stats that actually controls for a team, i.e., it adjusts how a team does with the player of interest on the ice vs. how his linemates do without him.  Hall's defensive metrics aren't strong, but they're not horrible, either. 

 

The site has 2 different types of charts, HERO which has stats for an individual player and WARRIOR which compares 2 players.  If you do want to check out a player using the site I'd suggest generating both charts, even is you have to use an arbitrary comparator for the WARRIOR chart since it has an additional stat on goal suppression that the HERO chart doesn't cover. Btw, both type charts only cover 3 year periods, not individual season. Not sure if that's because the author feels that much data is needed to get good results for the methods he employs or for other, perhaps practical, reasons.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I sure get the feeling that the Oilers are ripe for the picking. They seemingly have to seriously restructure, and with yet another top pick, they might even move that pick. If GMRF and his team can figure out who would thrive out of that sad environment, just seems that we could get some kind of help there.

 

The value pickups would be RNH, Eberle and probably Yakapov.

 

As you know, I am very keen on Draisaitl. The thing is, so are the Oilers. While his production and two way play are amazing for a kid with one full year of NHL, I will admit that the downside is that he has not proven the level of production over time. I just really think that they want to go McDavid-Draisaitl 1-2 for a long time.

 

I'd salivate over their pick too. Any of the top 3 guys in this year's draft are bonefide seriously elite prospects.

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Jon, in that article the author is taking a "straw man" case that Hall should be traded to test the hypothesis that he should be.  His ultimate conclusion is that he shouldn't be in spite of the Oil's need to balance their offense and defense. 

 

After our brief discussion about +- I did a quick search to see if there were better, easily accessible metrics out there and found this site: http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/   (I think someone else here posted a chart from the site)

You can generate charts with stats that actually controls for a team, i.e., it adjusts how a team does with the player of interest on the ice vs. how his linemates do without him.  Hall's defensive metrics aren't strong, but they're not horrible, either. 

 

The site has 2 different types of charts, HERO which has stats for an individual player and WARRIOR which compares 2 players.  If you do want to check out a player using the site I'd suggest generating both charts, even is you have to use an arbitrary comparator for the WARRIOR chart since it has an additional stat on goal suppression that the HERO chart doesn't cover. Btw, both type charts only cover 3 year periods, not individual season. Not sure if that's because the author feels that much data is needed to get good results for the methods he employs or for other, perhaps practical, reasons.

 

Okay, point taken that the author of the Cult of Hockey article in the Edmonton paper was trying to make an argument for keeping Hall. I submit that some of his points, like Hall's "mistakes/60" are valid - the Hurricanes went through that with Skinner, I'm sure.

 

How do I share charts from OnThePuck here? I did a HERO chart on Taylor Hall and a WARRIOR comparison of Hall and Jeff Skinner (mainly because he's a name Hurricanes' fans can connect with). Hall is MUCH better defensively than is Skinner, but still borderline second/third line.

 

One of the things I noticed at the bottom of Hall's HERO chart is the line combinations. If you look at it, Hall with Eberle and RNH was a better line than Hall with Purcell and Draisaitl. Just another way to muddy the waters. :blink:

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Okay, point taken that the author of the Cult of Hockey article in the Edmonton paper was trying to make an argument for keeping Hall. I submit that some of his points, like Hall's "mistakes/60" are valid - the Hurricanes went through that with Skinner, I'm sure.

 

How do I share charts from OnThePuck here? I did a HERO chart on Taylor Hall and a WARRIOR comparison of Hall and Jeff Skinner (mainly because he's a name Hurricanes' fans can connect with). Hall is MUCH better defensively than is Skinner, but still borderline second/third line.

 

One of the things I noticed at the bottom of Hall's HERO chart is the line combinations. If you look at it, Hall with Eberle and RNH was a better line than Hall with Purcell and Draisaitl. Just another way to muddy the waters. :blink:

 

Click on the "Download" link on the bottom right of the chart.  Once you get the png file you have to save it somewhere on the web.  Then you can post it here by clicking on the "picture" icon above and linking to the picture.

 

When I did the WARRIOR chart on Hall I also used Skinner, lol. Mostly because they seemed like similar type players (high powered offense with a weak defense rep). One thing to note is that the charts represent the past 3 years.  I'm sure if you could isolate just this season Skinner's defensive stats would be way better than his 3 year average.  Oh, and on the line-mates, keep in mind the three year thing so it includes Draisaitl's time last year when he was 19yo.  Plus I suspect RNH over the past 3 years when playing with Hall >> Purcell.  Purcell had 62 points total in 143 games with the Oil.  RNH had 146 points in 211 games over the reference period.  I bet that factors into the lines they display.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Here is an interesting link from an Edmonton media member that discusses what they might be looking to do. Brings up Faulk as a possible target.

 

Trade 1st Pick, Trade for Faulk?

 

That's a good article from the Edmonton viewpoint. Like most folks, they're certainly in the "overvaluing our guy and undervaluing theirs" mode - a natural happening. Faulk + something for RNH? I dunno. I don't like that idea as much, seeing as Faulk was an All-Star last year and RNH wasn't - the single representative from EDM was Taylor Hall. (Aside: Then again, since every team has to be represented on the All-Star teams, is being an All-Star as much of a plaudit as it used to be?)

 

Cult of Hockey also did an article on Hall's 'tale of two half-seasons' - much like Draisaitl, his productivity dropped in the second half of the season. There's some speculation that, like the rumors about Drasaitl having an injury, maybe Hall got dinged and that affected his output in the second half of the season. For Hall, that would be bad - 2015-16 was the first NHL season in which he'd played all 82 games.

 

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-the-peculiar-season-of-taylor-hall

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Yeah they need a reality check on Faulk plus for RNH.

 

RNH is a good player, but slight of build, injury prone, towards the bottom of his team in plus minus every year, and had not broken 25 goals or 60 points yet, despite having 5 NHL seasons in the books.

 

I would not even close to do Faulk straight up for him. The deal I would do is Faulk for RNH and their first round pick, with maybe a throw in from us (say Murphy, hey a guy can dream, or maybe our two second rounders).

 

Faulk and our two seconds for RNH and the Oilers's first round pick (unprotected). That pick could end up being Auston Matthews or one of the two uber elite Finns, and we'd still pick #13 and #22 (guestimate).

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That's a good article from the Edmonton viewpoint. Like most folks, they're certainly in the "overvaluing our guy and undervaluing theirs" mode - a natural happening. Faulk + something for RNH? I dunno. I don't like that idea as much, seeing as Faulk was an All-Star last year and RNH wasn't - the single representative from EDM was Taylor Hall. (Aside: Then again, since every team has to be represented on the All-Star teams, is being an All-Star as much of a plaudit as it used to be?)

 

Cult of Hockey also did an article on Hall's 'tale of two half-seasons' - much like Draisaitl, his productivity dropped in the second half of the season. There's some speculation that, like the rumors about Drasaitl having an injury, maybe Hall got dinged and that affected his output in the second half of the season. For Hall, that would be bad - 2015-16 was the first NHL season in which he'd played all 82 games.

 

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-the-peculiar-season-of-taylor-hall

 

I don't think an All Star appearance means all that much if it's clearly a "team default" one.  That's how I'd classify Faulk's 2015 selection. I think his selection this year was deserved at the time he was chosen. Which fortunately came before his almost 1/4 season long scoring slump.  You mentioned the 2 Oilers 2nd half drop off, interestingly enough, Faulk also had a great 1st half season but dropped way off the 2nd half of the year (only part of which was after his injury). 

 

Yeah they need a reality check on Faulk plus for RNH.

 

RNH is a good player, but slight of build, injury prone, towards the bottom of his team in plus minus every year, and had not broken 25 goals or 60 points yet, despite having 5 NHL seasons in the books.

 

I would not even close to do Faulk straight up for him. The deal I would do is Faulk for RNH and their first round pick, with maybe a throw in from us (say Murphy, hey a guy can dream, or maybe our two second rounders).

 

Faulk and our two seconds for RNH and the Oilers's first round pick (unprotected). That pick could end up being Auston Matthews or one of the two uber elite Finns, and we'd still pick #13 and #22 (guestimate).

 

rem, no offense but I think the idea of Faulk and our two 2nds for RNH and the Oils 1st is just as, or more 1 sided in our direction as Faulk+ for RNH is in theirs.  Primarily because the Oils 1st is most probably Matthews, Puljujarve, or Laine.  

 

Trying to be as objective as possible, I think something closer to fair value would be Faulk + Fleury for RNH + Oils 1st.  Maybe tweaked a little bit to our advantage, and it assumes the Oil have a very high probability of ending up in the top three.  

 

edit: I just looked it up and Oilers only have a 39% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks this year.  To my mind that significantly devalues their 1st until after the lottery results are known.  Canes have a 6.66% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks.   

 

edit2: I don't see how Oil can trade their 1st before the lottery takes place.  There's just too much variability as to what it will be worth imo.

Edited by LakeLivin

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rem, no offense but I think the idea of Faulk and our two 2nds for RNH and the Oils 1st is just as, or more 1 sided in our direction as Faulk+ for RNH is in theirs.  Primarily because the Oils 1st is most probably Matthews, Puljujarve, or Laine.  

 

Trying to be as objective as possible, I think something closer to fair value would be Faulk + Fleury for RNH + Oils 1st.  Maybe tweaked a little bit to our advantage, and it assumes the Oil have a very high probability of ending up in the top three.  

 

edit: I just looked it up and Oilers only have a 39% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks this year.  To my mind that significantly devalues their 1st until after the lottery results are known.  Canes have a 6.66% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks.   

 

edit2: I don't see how Oil can trade their 1st before the lottery takes place.  There's just too much variability as to what it will be worth imo.

 

I thought I might have read somewhere a proposal of Faulk for RNH and their first, and agree that is too one sided. Maybe we throw in our second first round pick.

 

You may be right though, that even that is not really enough. I would NOT trade Faulk and Fleury though. I see Fleury as a grade A prospect who's very presence is what allows the idea of trading Faulk. If you move them both, it doesn't work for me.

 

Maybe clean house on the second part: Faulk, plus Murphy, plus LA's pick, plus one of our seconds, plus..... for RNH and their first round pick.

 

Probably doesn't work but then really don't see us going for RHN. (But that's just me).

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