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remkin

FREE AGENT TALK: 2016

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Everyone has an opinion and a right to post it. I think the ignore feature still works.

 

Relocation talk is a reality. As tiresome as it can get it will pop up from time to time in most the threads we have. There is a relocation thread but it is difficult to keep it out of general discussion.....

I'm not responding as if your post was directed at me and appreciate the overall points.  I'll never use the ignore button and value all opinions.  It's interesting to see the various perspectives, including those I disagree with.

 

All of the "If" points as "talk", including relocation, are valid. Don't really care if they're one-sided from any poster, but will call them what they are.  All are free to "ignore" anything I say :)

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Well at least the Caps will have a good representative from the big truckers, to remind us all to be safe around the rigs... As for the Im right and you are wrong debacle, (laughs) 99% of most all predictions here seldom comes to be. Optimist or not, the one thing in common, we all want this team to WIN and stop presenting like a rag tag bunch losers.... 

Edited by PamlicoPuck

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Not only the expansion draft next year, super_dave - possible expansion to QC in 2018-19, and the CBA expires in 2019, I think it is, which is only three years away, which has to influence the course of negotiations on four-plus year deals. I know that if I were a UFA this year looking for a four-plus year term on a deal, I'd want the contract to be heavily front-loaded so that whatever happened in negotiations in 2019 didn't work against me.

CBA runs thru 2022. It was a ten-year deal, longest in league history.

 

I doubt the NHL does expansion in two consecutive seasons, partly because of the effects on free agency, which we've just seen. Mostly though, I doubt another new team is added before 2020--unless the Canadian dollar absolutely soars in the meantime. Given what's happening with oil (the commodity, not the team :)) that's just not likely.

 

If I'm right, that makes next year's FA market prime time for us to sign a top-six guy to a big contract, and I think RF sees this. We'd get three years out of him before the next expansion, if one happens at all.

 

I'm really doubtful one does. I think it's waaaaay more likely, assuming LV is successful, that Arizona or, more likely because of the monetary exchange realities, an existing Canadian team heads for QC, and that no further expansion in terms of total teams occurs anytime soon. Could totally see the Peg or Ottawa as candidates for QC, especially the Peg if it misses the playoffs for another couple of years.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Not butt hurt. I'm concerned we only have 1 maybe 2 top 6 forwards. Nobody makes the playoffs with that. I think for too long we have suckee and our expectations have lowered in terms of what a true top 6 line should look like.

What did we have last year because we were pretty close to the playoffs?...another year of progression for our young core, add in a 50 point guy, toss in TT who scored 30 points last year at 21, and we added size. What do you want? Should we have signed everybody available yesterday??? Not saying we win the Presidents Trophy but we are in a good spot. Certainly the best spot we've been in for years. Most importantly, we are set up nicely down the road where we can challenge to be a top level team!

Edited by BBC-line

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What did we have last year because we were pretty close to the playoffs?...another year of progression for our young core, add in a 50 point guy, toss in TT who scored 30 points last year at 21, and we added size. What do you want? Should we have signed everybody available yesterday??? Not saying we win the Presidents Trophy but we are in a good spot. Certainly the best spot we've been in for years. Most importantly, we are set up nicely down the road where we can challenge to be a top level team!

I just don't see how yet...without a big-name providing some offensive firepower.  Our shots on goal have been ok in previous seasons under BP, but our goals for stats have been downright horrible!  We need help, and fast.

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I just don't see how yet...without a big-name providing some offensive firepower. Our shots on goal have been ok in previous seasons under BP, but our goals for stats have been downright horrible! We need help, and fast.

I don't understand why we need help fast...this is a proper rebuild. It takes time. Think back to this time last year, we weren't expecting to be in the hunt for a playoff spot on March. This team did last year what we weren't expecting it to do until this upcoming season. We are ahead of schedule in Raleigh and that's a great thing but I just don't see the dire circumstances to win now.

Additionally with our additions up front, and another year under our young Ds belt, how could someone not expect us to improve this year?...we finished something like 7 points out this year...3 wins and a OT loss, not a huge gap with how close NHL games can be. Look at where BP came from in Detroit. They had 1 50 point scorer last year and made the playoffs.

Edited by BBC-line

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I don't understand why we need help fast...this is a proper rebuild. It takes time. Think back to this time last year, we weren't expecting to be in the hunt for a playoff spot on March. This team did last year what we weren't expecting it to do until this upcoming season. We are ahead of schedule in Raleigh and that's a great thing but I just don't see the dire circumstances to win now.

Additionally with our additions up front, and another year under our young Ds belt, how could someone not expect us to improve this year?...we finished something like 7 points out this year...3 wins and a OT loss, not a huge gap with how close NHL games can be. Look at where BP came from in Detroit. They had 1 50 point scorer last year and made the playoffs.

Last year the team has Versteeg and Staal and still couldn't make it. Those 2 players have been replaced by TT and Stemp. That's my concern.

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So I just made up things like:

If Lindholm Progresses

If Nesty recovers.

If Rask can put up 1C numbers.

If TT can get 40 points (which he has yet to do)

If Aho can score at least 35 ppints.

If Ward stays consistent/has a good start.

If Lack can get back on track.

If our young defenae doesn't regress.

You all are right. I clearly don't pay attention and have made all of what I have read on here up. Sorry for being realistic and not a blind optimist.

 

BD - That is a lot of ifs!!!

 

I think they should sign Jiri Hudler for another top 9 F. good stats,can play PP. can be exposed if signed for 2 years.

 

I also think they should take a shot at Justin Schultz as a 5-6 depth D who can jump into the top 4 if needed. He is still young, RHD, and could be signed to a 2 year deal to expose him to the expansion draft.

 

I think both of these players would improve the depth of the Canes, & allow some of the youth to develop in Charlotte.

Edited by rocheccw

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Last year the team has Versteeg and Staal and still couldn't make it. Those 2 players have been replaced by TT and Stemp. That's my concern.

Saying Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg were anything like effective last year is just not accurate. If they had been even marginally better, we get in. But with the season on the line, they couldn't produce.

 

What this team achieved last year it achieved entirely through the work of its youth and grinders - not those two gliders - and in spite of some pretty brutal goaltending in the first half. Nonetheless, the team almost sneaked in, thanks to the young, talented players it has picked up or called up since BPRF took over: Nordstrom, Nestrasil, Hanifin, Pesce, Slavin, PDG.

 

The brain trust has now further culled the herd and filled six forward roster and depth slots which were occupied by under/non-performers (Eric, Versteeg, Terry, Malone, Nash, Gerbe) with TT, Bickell, Stalberg, Stempniak, Aho, and PDG. Which six would you rather have?  

 

You want to score goals, score goals. Have you looked at the decline in goals overall in this league? Hockey is no longer the free-for-all that was once about obliterating your opponent. It's about speed, skill, possession, capitalizing on what few opportunities you get and ensuring that the other team gets fewer opportunities than you do. That's the game this team is building to play, and if you seriously expected that job to be completed in two years, when the team RF inherited was comprised mainly of guys who couldn't get jobs anywhere else, do me a favor and stop bogarting that thing.

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Last year the team has Versteeg and Staal and still couldn't make it. Those 2 players have been replaced by TT and Stemp. That's my concern.

 

That's my optimism.

 

Staal was playing like a 40 year old.  Versteeg apparently had petulant times of invisibility.

 

TT will have something to play for.

 

Despite Stemp's age, hopefully he has less mileage.

 

In that infamous commentary on Staal the other night, POS pointed out just how many miles E. Staal has on him.  POS felt he played too much from too young an age.  And then of course, we all know about The Injury. 

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At the risk of whining, I have to say the Hockey gods really hosed this team.  In my mind, the following events really, really hurt this team.  3 were bad luck, 1 was GM ultra-stupidity

  • The Lockmonster's bus crash.  Great way to wipe out your depth.  This would have hurt any team.
  • The Injury to E. Staal, and subsequent denial.  Lack of surgery may have also been short sighted.
  • The Joni Pitkinnen injury
  • Semin's contract

 

RF is finally getting us out from all of these.  We need a little luck going forward, though.

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Brad Malone to the caps. 1 yr deal

 

 

Better keep their heads up when playing Caps.

 

If he's there. Caps signed him on a 2-way contract.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I actually think for the most part this is a good discussion with well made, well thought, and heartfelt points on both sides and in the middle.

 

Frustration with this team's recent history and our position and being a basically cheap team right now is not unreasonable. Let's face it, if we were spending to the cap we'd have no problem fitting a guy in, even if his deal got a bit pungent towards the end. We have been through 5 seasons of increasing futility, and one of the big reasons, is that our big contract guys spit the bit. BTW, only Semin was a UFA signing. But over the years since 2009-10, we've gotten diminishing returns on Eric Staal especially. Think of this. Stamkos just re-signed for less than Eric was making. And the past 3 years our stud, over $9 milion/year guy has put up less than 50 points/year x 3 years, and one year spent much of it DEAD LAST on the forwards plus/minus, something like 650 th out of 650. Then Ward had two terrible years, and has yet to put up a really good year in the last 5. And Semin? Wow. We all know about that, but on a points per $, he made Eric look good.

 

Anyway, all of that has clearly left a bad taste bias for bad long term deals, and that rightly colors the other side of this debate. High paid, long term, NTC vets have been the problem here recently, so clearly we are a bit reticent to go down that path again.

 

On the UFA and the specifics of it though....I really think that this was partly not going to pay a lot, but also that UFA's of the "write their own ticket" variety, are just very unlikely to have Raleigh on their list. The good news is that we have Francis and Brinda'mour and a good reputation for treating players fairly. But guys aren't foolish.

 

At the top of the list guys want to win, and also further there careers. They further their careers by playing with really good players. Andrew Ladd doesn't go to Long Island if he is not salivating about the numbers he can put up with Tavares, and Okposo with Jack Eichel.

 

Then, we have the lowest attendance, and often are outdrawn by the other team's fans. Then, even if we think its malarkey that the team is moving, that is still out there, and at least the team is openly for sale. 

 

So, the write your own ticket guys, who arguably already got overpaid and definitely over-termed, would have had to be shocked by us with an even bigger over pay and over term, and still probably don't come here.

 

We are just not really in the game for those guys. I would have overpaid a Brouwer, but he was not interested, and really, while he would be a really nice piece, he is not elite.

 

So we grabbed the guy we could get at least relatively cheap, and on a short deal, that we can either get a lot out of, or expose in the expansion draft. I wanted a bigger move too. But it just wasn't there.

 

I do feel better knowing that Francis made a run at Drouin, and Taylor Hall. He's probably made attempts at other guys too, just hasn't made that big move work yet.

 

But his powder is still bone dry, and more moves could still be out there. And even if not, this team has more talent than last year, and everyone not named Aho is in a position to have one more NHL season under their belt and should collectively improve, and watch for Lindholm.

 

Stempniak does have upside too. He claims he figured out some things in training that have significanly improved his game and led to 51 points last year. Who knows, but if so, we just got the cheapest 50 points in UFA.

 

I was, as always underwhelmed w/ UFA, and it took a couple of days to really process it, but I really am OK with what went down.

Edited by remkin

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I actually think for the most part this is a good discussion with well made, well thought, and heartfelt points on both sides and in the middle.

 

Frustration with this team's recent history and our position and being a basically cheap team right now is not unreasonable. Let's face it, if we were spending to the cap we'd have no problem fitting a guy in, even if his deal got a bit pungent towards the end. We have been through 5 seasons of increasing futility, and one of the big reasons, is that our big contract guys spit the bit. BTW, only Semin was a UFA signing. But over the years since 2009-10, we've gotten diminishing returns on Eric Staal especially. Think of this. Stamkos just re-signed for less than Eric was making. And the past 3 years our stud, over $9 milion/year guy has put up less than 50 points/year x 3 years, and one year spent much of it DEAD LAST on the forwards plus/minus, something like 650 th out of 650. Then Ward had two terrible years, and has yet to put up a really good year in the last 5. And Semin? Wow. We all know about that, but on a points per $, he made Eric look good.

 

Anyway, all of that has clearly left a bad taste bias for bad long term deals, and that rightly colors the other side of this debate. High paid, long term, NTC vets have been the problem here recently, so clearly we are a bit reticent to go down that path again.

 

On the UFA and the specifics of it though....I really think that this was partly not going to pay a lot, but also that UFA's of the "write their own ticket" variety, are just very unlikely to have Raleigh on their list. The good news is that we have Francis and Brinda'mour and a good reputation for treating players fairly. But guys aren't foolish.

 

At the top of the list guys want to win, and also further there careers. They further their careers by playing with really good players. Andrew Ladd doesn't go to Long Island if he is not salivating about the numbers he can put up with Tavares, and Okposo with Jack Eichel.

 

Then, we have the lowest attendance, and often are outdrawn by the other team's fans. Then, even if we think its malarkey that the team is moving, that is still out there, and at least the team is openly for sale. 

 

So, the write your own ticket guys, who arguably already got overpaid and definitely over-termed, would have had to be shocked by us with an even bigger over pay and over term, and still probably don't come here.

 

We are just not really in the game for those guys. I would have overpaid a Boedicker or Brouwer, but they were not interested, and really, while really nice pieces (for me especially Brouwer) they are not elite.

 

So we grabbed the guy we could get at least relatively cheap, and on a short deal, that we can either get a lot out of, or expose in the expansion draft. I wanted a bigger move too. But it just wasn't there.

 

I do feel better knowing that Francis made a run at Drouin, and Taylor Hall. He's probably made attempts at other guys too, just hasn't made that big move work yet.

 

But his powder is still bone dry, and more moves could still be out there. And even if not, this team has more talent than last year, and everyone not named Aho is in a position to have one more NHL season under their belt and should collectively improve, and watch for Lindholm.

 

Stempniak does have upside too. He claims he figured out some things in training that have significanly improved his game and led to 51 points last year. Who knows, but if so, we just got the cheapest 50 points in UFA.

 

I was, as always underwhelmed w/ UFA, and it took a couple of days to really process it, but I really am OK with what went down.

The Hockey is Strong in This one!!

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Canes Agree to Terms with Matt Tennyson

The deal will pay Tennyson $675,000 on the NHL level or $275,000 in the American Hockey League (AHL) in 2016-17.

 

“Matt gives us added depth on the blueline, as a right-shot defenseman who has proven he can play at the NHL level,” said Francis.

 

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I don't mind the Stempniak signing, and I understand it accomplishes multiple purposes (RW, veteran presence, and expansion bait) but I suspect it may turn out to be an example of "buying high".  His 51 pts last season were 1 under his career high in '06-'07 and his only 2 other 40+ pt seasons since then occurred in '08-'09 and '09-'10.  I'm thinking it's more likely that he ends up closer to 40 points than 50 (I'm guessing between 35 and 45).

 

Again, I'm not saying it was a bad signing overall.  I'm just saying that my expectations for Stempniak are probably a lot more tempered than those of some others here.

 

On the positive side, I could see TT breaking out as much or more than the amount by which I think Stempniak will regress to his mean.  

Edited by LakeLivin

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SJ fans have said good things about him.

But it's only a one-year deal. So we still need to sign someone to a two-year for the expansion draft.

 

Plus, you don't want to box yourself into having to play him 40 games in order to not have to expose Faulk.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Many of those big names that went elsewhere had palatable numbers on the deal, but they were all pretty much 2 years too long. Whatever it is that stats guru Eric Tulsky does (and they will not discuss it) is much of the driving force behind what is happening. Billy Beane of Moneyball fame built a year in and year out MLB contender in Oakland on a shoestring budget. I really think we are seeing the beginning of Moneypuck. One thing we do know is that the statistical peak of hockey players is about 28 years old.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I don't mind the Stempniak signing, and I understand it accomplishes multiple purposes (RW, veteran presence, and expansion bait) but I suspect it may turn out to be an example of "buying high".  His 51 pts last season were 1 under his career high in '06-'07 and his only 2 other 40+ pt seasons since then occurred in '08-'09 and '09-'10.  I'm thinking it's more likely that he ends up closer to 40 points than 50 (I'm guessing between 35 and 45).

 

Again, I'm not saying it was a bad signing overall.  I'm just saying that my expectations for Stempniak are probably a lot more tempered than those of some others here.

 

On the positive side, I could see TT breaking out as much or more than the amount by which I think Stempniak will regress to his mean.  

I posted earlier that I thought Stempniak was some one we should pursue. I'm happy with the signing for a few reason's. He can contribute to the offensive scoring. He can be slotted anywhere from 1-4 lines He is a true RW and will allow us to slot our other players where they belong(not on RW). His experience will assist our youth and increase their capabilities. If we got one more RW I'd be delighted and call the off season a total success and sit back and wait for the puck to drop. 

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Many of those big names that went elsewhere had palatable numbers on the deal, but they were all pretty much 2 years too long. Whatever it is that stats guru Eric Tulsky does (and they will not discuss it) is much of the driving force behind what is happening. Billy Beane of Moneyball fame built a year in and year out MLB contender in Oakland on a shoestring budget. I really think we are seeing the beginning of Moneypuck. One thing we do know is that the statistical peak of hockey players is about 28 years old.

You can get some good things from the dollar store.

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There are so many articles floating around the internet praising the job Francis has done and pinning us a team "doing it the right way" and as a team on the rise. I know it's hard to be patient after so many years of being told the same thing over and over. But you have to remember, Francis inherited a mess. A terrible roster, terrible cap situation and a very swallow prospect pool. In just 2 seasons he has improved all three of those things. Drastically. He has set us up perfectly for the expansion draft and we have potential for a very bright future.

 

I know it's easy to be frustrated. But when every "expert" is praising him and raving about our future, I think we should be optimistic. 

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Someone buy remkin his own island!!!

 

My Island is still out there. Shuttered, But it was shuttered by expectations for guys who had done it, and should have been able to do it, but didn't even come close to doing it.

 

The Island is also being rebuilt along with the team, but this time it rests on predicting improvement from our drafted a traded for prospects far more.

 

On Stempniak, I am far from an expert on him. Really didn't watch him play much the last few years. As my Island shows, I do tend to get optimistic this time of year, so temper things with that. His 51 point year was a recent outier for sure, and just looking over his stats there is no doubt that 30-35 points is a better bet based on the weight of his history.

 

But overpay? Maybe a little, but we also paid to get a short term. $2.5 million for 2 years? If that's our worst overpay? Given our current payroll? I'll take it. I don't know, but I didn't see any NTC either. I'll bet it's limited if it's there at all.

 

Stempniak is a skill guy and a playmaking guy. It could be saying the right things but the word was that he was thought to really fit in with what we are going. I'm thinking quick plays, hockey IQ, and playmaking.

 

I just really think this is a classic small ball, risk-reward play of the kind that can really pay off, or not hurt too bad. And if Francis still finds the big trade before the start of the season, he can look over the roster and see who still makes sense. But given the expansion draft? Makes even more sense.

 

Within probabilities:

 

Risk: 28 points. Still top 9. BUT then he can be one of our two exposed forwards in expansion draft.

 

Reward: 40-50 points. He really did figure something out that makes him a better skater with better balance, and last year was not a fluke, but an improved version.

 

If he is a top 9 guy of some contibution, well Nathan Gerbe's best year with us, the one we all loved him, he was 30 points. Now admittedly he was paid under $1 million. But that's the downside.

 

If Stempniak hits near 50 points, he will be worth every penny.

 

Bottom line: all UFA's are overpaid, almost by definition, or their agent should be fired. But assuming we did overpay, it was at the low end in money and term. We really can't be hurt that badly by it, and in all likelihood he ends up protecting a younger player from expansion exposure.

Edited by remkin

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