Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
hag65

Hagmetrics: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

Recommended Posts

Background:
Quite simply, Hagmetrics seeks to provide an very simple way to see where you are in the standings, taking games in hand out of the equation.

Given that framework, it is also easy to "set a pace" for the season for making the playoffs, and see at any given time how the team is doing relative to that playoff pace.


How it works:
Subtract losses from wins in the standings.  Ignore overtime losses.  That will give you a positive or negative number (hopefully positive!)

Example:  (W-L-OTL)  8-6-2       is 8 minus 6 = +2      


You can do the math yourself if you doubt it, but the OTLs don't matter (except in tiebreakers).  8-6-2 for +2 is the same number of points as 6-4-6 for +2, (16 games, 18 points).
Note that the plus or minus value also equates to the same number of points relative to the number of games.  i.e. in this example, 18 points in 16 games is +2.


Why is this useful?

As you peruse the standings, sometimes the difference in games played varies up to around 4 games.  So a team with 4 games in hand may *appear* to be behind in the standings.  A very easy way to reconcile all of the games in hand nonsense is to quickly look at the W/L Hagmetrics value, assign the value relative to the other teams and you have a much better comparison, done very quickly almost at a glance.

 

Example:
Team A   22-13-3   (hagmetric +9)  47 points
Team B   23-16-3   (hagmetric +7)  49 points

Team B is ahead in the standings.  But Team A has 4 games in hand, and is clearly ahead looking at the hagmetric count.  If they go .500 with the games in hand they end up up by 2 points, exactly what the Hagmetric count states.  
Before you think the obvious, yeah, you could do the same thing by looking at the GP and figure it out for each team but why bother?  The whole point is to make it as easy and as fast as possible, i.e. subtract losses from wins and you are done. 


How else is this useful?
The other way I find this useful is to put together a "pace" for the team to make the playoffs.  93 points makes it about 50% of the time.  To make it simpler, I use 94 points, 12 points over 82 games played.  Season is 6 months so it is a very easy formula.

October and April are half months.  The other 5 months are full months.  You need to go +2 every full month to get to +12.  So make a schedule with goals:

 

Month      Hagmetric goal
_____      ______________
Oct        +1
Nov        +3
Dec        +5
Jan        +7
Feb        +9
Mar        +11
Apr        +12


So all you need to do is consistently go 2 games over NHL .500 each month, +2 Hagmetric, and you'll end up with 94 points.  Also, at the end of each month, take a look at the standings and see if the top 8 water-mark for the playoffs isn't the value in that chart.  Sometimes it isn't perfect, but more times than not, it is spot on.

That's all.  I'll post periodic status reports through the year as to where we are and what needs to happen moving forward.

Edited by hag65
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

October Report

Well, the goal is +1 by the end of October.
The Canes are -2.  (2 wins minus 4 losses)  Dead last in the conference.
The same performance as last season's October, -2.

Here are the top 8 in the East:

 

Montreal   +8
Pittburgh  +6
Rangers    +3
Washington +3
Detroit    +2
New Jersey +2
Ottawa     +2
Tampa Bay  +1
(4 teams at +0)

 

Interestingly, the +1 goal is correct, and on the line.


The Bad News - behind pace by 3, dead last.
The Good News - it's early.  Lots of time to recover.

14 games in November, goal is +3 overall at end of November.  A record of 9-4-1 would totally dig out of the hole immediately, with 4 and a half months still to play.  Even a record of 8-5-1 would dig most of the way out.  So the important thing is to start winning, all is not lost.

 

Note: Last season November was also a -2, to exit the month at -4 and a much deeper hole, one we never quite recovered from even with a decent 2nd half of the season.  

 

So November is crucial to see progress over last season.
 

Edited by hag65

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interim November report...

 

Record:    4-2-2

Hagmetric  +2

Total for season  +0

Mid November goal  +2

(+3 though to be tied for 8th currently) 

 

2 games behind.  Keep it going Canes.  Halfway out of the hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ssssh...  don't tell anyone, but the Canes are +2 and will be totally back on pace if they finish the month 2-1-1 or better.

 

The Canes are 10th in the east by Hagmetrics standings.

 

"Winning is fun" - Cam Ward 

Edited by hag65
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

November Report

 

Goal:  +3 by the end of November.
The Canes are +0.  (9-9-4)

November performance was +2 (7-5-2).  Exactly what you need to maintain pace every month, but did not catch up any of the October lost ground.  

After October, were dead last.  Now have moved up to 14th in the East
Last season's November was -2.  So a much better November this season.  

At this point last season the Canes were overall -4.

 

Here are the top 8 in the East:

 

Montreal   +11
Rangers    +9
Pittsburgh +7
Washington +7

Columbus   +7
Ottawa     +6
Tampa Bay  +3
New Jersey +3
(#9 team at +2)

 

Once again, the +3 goal is correct, and on the line.  Two months in a row.


The Bad News - still behind pace by 3
The Good News - The hole is less than half as deep as it was at this point last season.  There are still 4.5 months to play, catching up a game a month more than makes up for it.  And the Canes are playing a game that can beat any team in the league.

 

Looking Forward

15 games in December, goal is +5 overall at end of December.  A record of 10-5 would totally dig out of the hole immediately, with 3 and a half months still to play.  With the nasty start to this schedule this month, I am looking at a more modest goal of +3 for the month, like 8-5-2.  Dig out a little.

 

Edited by hag65

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So last night's loss stung. But the one thing that is not factored into any estimates, including my points/game estimates, is difficulty of schedule and injuries.

 

Our schedule over this 8 game stretch is nothing short of brutal in terms of road games vs. very very good teams all in a row. and all without J. (probably).

 

If we can hit December 11 and have picked up some points along the way, and still within site of the cut line, we will be much better positioned to make a run than many pundits will know: All West coast trips over, many more home games than road games, no long road trips. 4 months of hockey with NO long road trips. The longest is 4 games along the east coast 3rd week in March. Take that out and our longest road trip is 2 games. (Yes, there is a three game stretch in Feb, but there are vast stretches of days off in the middle and after that road trip, so it almost doesn't count).

And after that? Two games is the longest road trip over 4 months.

 

And while we do pick up a few more back to backs, most of them the other team is also back to back, which nullifies that.

 

So the goal is to pick up points in these next 8 (4 points would be adequate, 5 would be good). Then, hopefully get J back and start the next 4 months of climbing the standings.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/30/2016 at 10:14 AM, hag65 said:

 

Looking Forward

15 games in December, goal is +5 overall at end of December.  A record of 10-5 would totally dig out of the hole immediately, with 3 and a half months still to play.  With the nasty start to this schedule this month, I am looking at a more modest goal of +3 for the month, like 8-5-2.  Dig out a little.

 

 

How about 7-4-3?  +3 as requested.  So without further adieu,  here is the most successful Hagmetrics report to date...

 

December Report

 

Goal:  +5 by the end of December.
The Canes are +3.  (16-13-7)

December performance was +3 (7-4-3).  Actually above maintenance pace by one win, catching up a game of the 3 games of prior lost ground.

After October, were dead last.  End of November, moved up to 14th in the East.  December, moved up to 11th.  Clearly continuing to move up.
At this point, a win tonight against TB would have literally caught up to the +5 goal.  We are now that close to playoff pace.

 

 

Here are the top 8 in the East:

 

Columbus     +21 (insane, were +7 a month ago)

Pittsburgh   +17
Rangers      +14

Montreal     +13
Washington   +12
Ottawa       +8
Philadelphia +6
Boston       +5
(#9 team at +4)

 

Once again, the +5 goal is correct, and on the line.  Three months in a row.  To be totally fair though, the wildcard slot is +6, +5 is the last division slot for the Atlantic.


The Bad News - behind pace by 2.  Also, we have a new factor, i.e. the excessive dominance of the Metro division which has been noted by several folks in discussions.  Right now, SportsClubStats shows the chance of Carolina making the playoffs with 94 points is exactly 49.9%.  So Hagmetrics is based on a goal of 94 points, we are doing quite well on getting there, but it may not be enough.  
The Good News - It's been a long time since the Canes were this close at this point in the season..  There are still 3.5 months to play, with literally 2 more games to catch up.  The schedule is favorable, the home record blistering, and the team is playing well enough to beat anyone.

 

Looking Forward

13 games in January, 8 of them at home. The goal is +7 overall at end of January.  Since the Canes are currently +3, going +4 in January would get back on pace and likely bring the Canes right to the 8 slot (or within a point or 2).  8-4-1 would do it.  There are some tough games in there, 3 against Columbus (they gotta lose sometime?), away at Washington, away in Chicago...  but there comes a time where the rubber meets the road and the excuses need to go away.  The team is playing well now, killing at home, and a lot of these are at home.  It's time to put a stamp on it and move into position.   

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mid-Season Report

 

41 of 82 games are in the books, so this is as good a time as any to see where we are.

 

If you are shooting for 94 points, that's +12.  So the Canes should be +6 by now


The Canes are +4.  (19-15-7)

2 games below pace.  Considering the difficulty of the schedule to date, you could make a case that the Canes are more or less right on the line as the schedule moving forward should be a bit easier.

 

Here are the top 8 in the East:

 

Columbus     +20

Pittsburgh   +18

Washington   +17
Rangers      +15

Montreal     +15
Ottawa       +7
Boston       +5
Philadelphia +5

---------------

Toronto      +5
Canes        +4

 

Now's a good time to point out a couple oddities.

1.  Boston is "ahead" of Ottawa in the official standings but Ottawa has 5 games in hand on Boston.  A quick Hagmetric look sees Ottawa at +7 clearly ahead of Boston +5.

2.  Toronto is behind the Canes in the standings but has 2 games in hand.  +5 is better than +4.

This stuff is just too easy.


Looking Forward

Boy I wish we didn't have that stinker against Jersey but otherwise we are having a great month so far.   8 more games left in January, 5 at home.  A simple 5-3 record over those games and we are looking at being back dead on playoff pace at +7.

 

More good news...  +12 (94 points) now makes the playoffs 70.1% of the time, and has been steadily increasing day to day with the faltering Philadelphia.  Now, +11 (93 points) even makes it over half the time at 58%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

 

Exciting times!

Edited by hag65
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Canes Hold the 8 slot

 

The novice looks at the NHL standings and sees this:

 

NHL Standings

             W   L   T   Pts

Metropolitan

Columbus     30  9   4   64

Washington   29  9   6   64

Pittsburgh   27 11   5   59

Atlantic

Montreal     27 12   6   60

Boston       23 19   5   51

Toronto      21 13   8   50

Wildcard

Rangers      28 16   1   57
Ottawa       23 15   4   50

Out
Philadelphia 22 18   6   50

Carolina     21 16   7   49

 

Canes sit sadly in 10th still, right?

 

Wrong.  Ottawa and Toronto both have 5 games in hand on Boston.

Hagmetrics sees this, and correctly bumps Boston out of the 2 Atlantic slot.  And yes, the Canes with 3 games in hand on Boston are expected to net 3 points, and are therefore ahead of the evicted Boston, and ahead of Phili as well, to snare the 8 slot. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

             Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Columbus     +21

Washington   +20

Pittsburgh   +16

Atlantic

Montreal     +15

Ottawa       +8

Toronto      +8

Wildcard

Rangers      +12
Carolina     +5

Out
Boston       +4

Philadelphia +4

 

Edited by hag65

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, hag65 said:

Hagmetrics sees this, and correctly bumps Boston out of the 2 Atlantic slot.  And yes, the Canes with 3 games in hand on Boston are expected to net 3 points, and are therefore ahead of the evicted Boston, and ahead of Phili as well, to snare the 8 slot. 

 

Saw this right off as well.  :popcorn:

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

January Report

 

Goal:  +7 by the end of January.
The Canes are +2.  (22-20-7)

January performance was -1 (6-7-0).  The rollercoaster we are all painfully aware of that happened this month really set back the playoff chances for this team.

Since you need to go +2 every month, a -1 has dug a serious 3 game hole into the playoff pace, where the canes were already behind pace.  More on that in the looking forward section.

 

 

Here are the Hagmetric standings for the East:

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

             Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington   +22

Columbus     +21

Pittsburgh   +18

Atlantic

Montreal     +16

Ottawa       +10

Toronto      +7

Wildcard

Rangers      +13

Boston       +5

Out
Philadelphia +5

Islanders    +5

Florida      +4

Carolina     +2

New Jersey   0

Buffalo      0

Tampa Bay    -1

Detroit      -1

 

 

 

So...   +7 is wrong, as you can see.  +5 is good enough to get in, right?  So Boston should be happy since they hold a playoff spot?  And the Canes are only 3 games out of taking away that spot, right?

 

Wrong...  and here is the thing.

The Bad News

The fact that there is literally a huge clump of teams, literally 9 teams spanning a 6 game span from +5 to -1, shows the fallacy of being comfortable at +5.  At least one of these teams, maybe more than one, is going to go on a rip/tear for the rest of the season.  By the end, +12 will likely be the number.  The fact that none of them are on pace for +12 is irrelevant.  There are 9 teams with a chance to go on a tear, and someone is going to.  Boston should not be comfortable, that's for sure, there are 8 other teams within striking distance, literally no team is out of the chance to put together the streak necessary to pull this off.  Even Detroit can go 22-9-1 over their last 32 games to get to +12.

 

The Canes are 5 games behind pace, the furthest behind they have been all year, AND they have fewer games to recover than they have had.


The Good News - 33 games to get to +12.  That's +10 over the last 33.  So 20-10-3 gets there.  That looks a heckuva lot like "Win 2 out of every 3" to me.  The other good news?  Well, there are 9 teams fighting it out, no one team has the huge advantage.  That means the Canes have as good a shot as any of the 9 fighting it out.  1 out of 9 is not good odds, I grant you.  I would go so far to say they are terrible odds.  BUT...

3cb68e606849c196aa7f6f075e9f3beaec51ff2a

 

Looking Forward

10 games in February, 6 of them at home. The goal is +9 overall at end of February.  Since the Canes are currently +2, going +7 in February would get back on pace and likely bring the Canes right into the 8 slot.  8-1-1 would do it.  That's inhuman to expect of them.  But goals are goals.  There is the bye, so they should be rested.  Other than the one back to back this weekend the games are spread out.  March is basically play every other day for a month, and tougher.  If there is any prayer of the playoffs, the time is now for a winning streak, the conditions as favorable as they are going to get.  You have to take advantage.

 

Want a more balanced approach?  Take it in 5 segments, Feb part 1, Feb part 2, March part 1, March part 2, April.  Go +2 over each of those segments and you get to +12 as well.   So +2 over the next 4 games is 3-1 (Feb part 1).

 

Just do it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good stuff Hag, can't argue with any of it. My system accounting for GIH, is less favored, but comes up with pretty much the same thing. The only quibble is that Toronto actually goes ahead of Boston.

 

But we end up 5 points out, and as you mention with a huge gaggle of teams all vying for the one slot we have the best shot at.

 

In the end this team needs a couple of winning streaks and the schedule definitely could allow for it. Lets' keep this one going! Then all of this could look a bit better a few weeks from now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, remkin said:

Good stuff Hag, can't argue with any of it. My system accounting for GIH, is less favored, but comes up with pretty much the same thing. The only quibble is that Toronto actually goes ahead of Boston.

 

But we end up 5 points out, and as you mention with a huge gaggle of teams all vying for the one slot we have the best shot at.

 

In the end this team needs a couple of winning streaks and the schedule definitely could allow for it. Lets' keep this one going! Then all of this could look a bit better a few weeks from now.

 

In 2007-2008 The Capitals won 11 of their last 12 (+10) to bump the Canes out of 1st in the SE on the last day of the season, and also out of the playoffs.

 

Incidentally, they ended up +12   :)

 

It's been known to happen.  Why not to us?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, hag65 said:

 

In 2007-2008 The Capitals won 11 of their last 12 (+10) to bump the Canes out of 1st in the SE on the last day of the season, and also out of the playoffs.

 

 

Oh I remember that. I was at the game vs Florida that a win got us in. Of course we lost. :cry:.

 

I don't think its going to take a run like that, at least not yet...but we do need to establish ourselves as solidly higher points per game than the gaggle of teams.

 

Of course a run like that would be sweet though.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, remkin said:

Oh I remember that. I was at the game vs Florida that a win got us in. Of course we lost. :cry:.

 

I don't think its going to take a run like that, at least not yet...but we do need to establish ourselves as solidly higher points per game than the gaggle of teams.

 

Of course a run like that would be sweet though.

 

Even if we didn't make it, a run like that would be sweet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The big key is winning in regulation versus teams in our conference. Sacrificing just a few loser points to Eastern teams will loom large, something BP alluded to coming back from the break. Meanwhile, watching the standings during our bye week will be a the hockey equivalent of being waterboarded. Every. Single. Night.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...