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hag65

Hagmetrics: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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2 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

 Meanwhile, watching the standings during our bye week will be a the hockey equivalent of being waterboarded. Every. Single. Night.

Your on a roll.

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On 2/1/2017 at 2:10 PM, hag65 said:

 

Looking Forward

 

Want a more balanced approach?  Take it in 5 segments, Feb part 1, Feb part 2, March part 1, March part 2, April.  Go +2 over each of those segments and you get to +12 as well.   So +2 over the next 4 games is 3-1 (Feb part 1).

 

Just do it.

 

Didn't want to post this... but you do your duty.

 

Feb Part 1

We needed to go +2 (3-1) to get to +4 for the new balanced comeback approach.  After winning the first 2, all we needed was a split for the Washington/Dallas last 2, but dropped them both, so 2-2 didn't cut it.  Canes still +2, still need to go +10 for the remainder of the season.

 

 

Note to Canes self:

Don't dig yourself a hole.  It's terrible.

Before the season starts, all you need to do is go 47-35 to get 94 points. (+12)

47 wins over 82 games is winning 57.3% of the time, or 4 games out of every 7.  

Just go 4-3 over and over all season and you are in.

 

 

Now, matters are worse.  Sure, the Canes are only 8 points out of the wildcard slot but with everyone alive for it, you can bet you'll still need +12, not the current +7.

 

So, 29 games left, you need +10 so that is now  19-9-1.  It is now slightly worse than 2 out of 3, it is now win at a 68% clip.

19 wins out of 29 is a pretty tough stretch.  

 

It's much easier to win 4 out of 7.  Let's remember that for next season.

 

In the meantime, optimism reigns supreme until there is none left.  So GO CANES! 

 

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That's probably about right in my calculations in terms of what we need too, Hag.

 

The thing is, that it looks better in the context of a nice run to debulk that "wins needed" pile.

 

That's why, as others have also pointed out, these next 14 games are so critical. We need a really good run in there, or we will run out of road ahead.

 

Edited by remkin

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One point a game won't do it.  Last night's game shortened the road ahead.

The Canes now have to go on a '08 style Capitals run, or a '17 style Columbus run.

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February Report  (late)

 

Goal:  +9 by the end of February.
The Canes are +0.  (25-25-9)

February performance was -2 (3-5-2).  Combined with January -1, the Canes are -3 in 2017 or 3 games below fake .500.

The Canes need to go +12 over the remaining games to hit 94 points.

(So far in March, 0-1-1 for a -1)

 

Here are the Hagmetric standings for the East:

I'm not going to bother with the standings since it is moot at this point, but the current 8 slot number is +8, relatively on schedule.

 

Another way of looking at the current situation is the Canes have 60 points, need 34 more.  They have 21 games left, winning all of them gives 42.  So they can lose 8 more points total.  Every time they lose moving forward, subtract 2, every OTL, subtract 1.  In other words, they can only lose 4 more games.

 

I understand this is pointless at this point.  I'm just playing out the string.  But it was realistically over after January.  This is why we became sellers. 

 

I'll make a couple more reports to validate the procedure, but its over until next season folks.

 

white+flag.jpg

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I would argue we were technically still within range up to Feb 7, and maybe a couple of game later due to the dreaded GIH.

 

However, beginning with that demolishing defeat in Washington Feb 7, probably the last moment for a run, the last 10 games we have responded by going: 1-6-3.

 

We have collapsed like a wet noodle and just as we touched the edge of the playoffs, a few moment later it was over.

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Called it right after the 5-game losing streak - it was over - prior to the GIH debate, which turned out to be nothing more than magic beans, as predicted. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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19 hours ago, remkin said:

We have collapsed like a wet noodle and just as we touched the edge of the playoffs, a few moment later it was over.

 

5 points out of 20 will do that to you.

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20 hours ago, remkin said:

We have collapsed like a wet noodle and just as we touched the edge of the playoffs, a few moment later it was over.

 

 

Still ticks me off.  They came back from a bad start and were pretty much sitting in the driver's seat.  Then, right at the game where it was finally going to start paying off, the reverberating cry could be heard of the entire team yelling out "PSYCH!!!"

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With every win it gets a little bit more believable...   Now they need to go 7-1-1 to hit 94 points and they just went 7-0-3.

 

A brief Hagmetrics...

 

Boston +9     7 left    max +16           5-2 gets +12

Isle +8          8 left    max +16           6-2 gets +12

TB +7           8 left    max +15           6-1-1 gets +12

Canes +6     9 left    max +15           7-1-1 gets +12

 

Over the last 10:

Boston +0

Isle +1

TB +3

Canes +7

 

 

Draw your own conclusions.  As I always said, someone is going to get hot and make +12.  I still think this, but if not, even better.  And someone is already red hot.

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14-1-4 out of 19 is almost unbelievable. But as Tug McGraw stated "ya gotta believe". I also enjoy some of his other quotes. What is the difference between astroturf and grass? I don't know, I never smoked astroturf.  Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste. Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed.

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4 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

14-1-4 out of 19 is almost unbelievable. But as Tug McGraw stated "ya gotta believe". I also enjoy some of his other quotes. What is the difference between astroturf and grass? I don't know, I never smoked astroturf.  Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste. Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed.

14-1-4, ask Columbus.

 

I LOLed over your Tug McGraw quotes.  Thanks for adding some levity.

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So this points out exactly why the NHL will likely never go to a three point system: races look much tighter than they are.

 

Looking at the standings We are 5 points out, but with 2 magic beans, or 3 points out with one magic bean behind the NYI. One could look at that and estimate we are around 3 points behind Boston, and 2 points behind the NYI.

 

So, we should have a decent shot? Well not quite yet.

 

I thought I'd pop over to Sportsclubstats.com since the math is beyond me. At the moment our chances of getting in are:

 

9.5% weighted

12.3% non weighted.

 

This is because of loser points, and bunching of teams. Essentially we are fighting 5 teams for one spot. So that would push us to 20% if we were all even. But since we have to pass three teams, it drops.

 

The thing about SCT is that the odds are always shifting. Two weeks ago, when we were starting to look at the draft in earnest, our chances were 1/200, now 1/10. If we keep winning, especially with some help, up we go.

 

Right now SCT is predicting 93 points is a 50-50 to get in, and 94 points is around 76%. (This too could change with less points needed if Boston/TB/ and NYI all go a bit soft).

 

So really, for things to break our way, we could get in with 6-1-2 or 7-2-0 and help leading to winning a coin flip.

 

Yes, still a tall task, but we can take a loss and two OT losses or two reg. losses and NO OT losses. It doesn't help that we've stunk at OT/SO, because we will need a couple of those probably.

 

BUT things really can shift. Boston and NYI are 5-5 and 5-4-1 last 10. Tampa 6-3-1 is making somewhat of a move, but 6-3-1. Boston has a ton of home games, but all three teams have plenty of tough opponents. Unfortunately we only get one game vs. any of them: NYI at Carolina, April 6.

 

Still, if those three teams hit a soft patch, the totals to get in could drop and a less impressive record could do it. Watching those odds change is fun if we are winning.

 

I guess it comes back to the same thing: just keep winning and then look up and see where you are. If we can take this b2b vs Detroit, and get a loss from Boston vs Nashville and Tampa vs Chicago....

 

10% chance overall, but just keep winning and watch that change.

Edited by remkin

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14 minutes ago, remkin said:

So this points out exactly why the NHL will likely never go to a three point system: races look much tighter than they are.

 

10% chance overall, but just keep winning and watch that change.

 

Yeah, I was thinking about the points too, so thanks for bringing that up Remkin.  Totally agree that the GMs/BofGovs won't change this.  They love us all having the illusion.  Also, when they post-run other point systems with the numbers, there are not huge shifts.  This system pretty much (but not 100% of the time) does the job.  And on top of that, it makes it look good to fans to keep them engaged.  It won't change.

 

As for 10%, yes.   A tall order.  Keep winning, and it will creep up.  Because of where the Canes are, though, it may only reach 50% on the last day of the season, if at all.  Which brings up the point.  If they lose tomorrow, watch that number drop.

 

So, keep winning.  Period.  It is their only hope.

Edited by wxray1

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March Report

or

This is not the recommended way to make a playoff run

or

Did we just really have a March like that?

 

First of all let me say that Hagmetrics is great during the beginning/middle of the season, but loses most of its usefulness at the end when the games in hand all even out and you have a clear vision of how many points it will probably take to make it and you microanalyze all the schedules of the teams vying for the slot.  But let's run the report and see how we did vs. the overall plan for the season

 

 

Goal:  +11 by the end of March.
The Canes are +8.  (35-27-14)  3 games behind schedule.

March performance was +8 (10-2-5).  

Let's also get this straight.  The Canes had only 2 regulation losses in the 17 games in March, to Arizona and Colorado, the two worst teams in the league.

 

Here are the Hagmetric standings for the East:

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

             Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington    +34

Columbus      +30

Pittsburgh    +27

Atlantic

Montreal      +20

Ottawa        +15

Toronto       +13

Wildcard

Rangers       +20

Boston        +11

Out
Tampa Bay     +9

Carolina      +8

Islanders     +6

Philadelphia  +5

Florida        0

Buffalo       -1

Detroit       -3

New Jersey    -8

 

+11 is the goal and is the playoff line.  It is amazing that this keeps holding true month after month.

 

Commentary

Month by month results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Month      Goal     Actual
_____      ____     ______
Oct        +1       -2
Nov        +3       +0
Dec        +5       +3
Jan        +7       +2
Feb        +9       +0
Mar        +11      +8
Apr        +12      ???

 

So having to go +8 in a month is beyond ridiculous.  Jan and Feb killed this team.  Still, +4 in April (5-1) will get to +12 (94 points)

If you can go +12 over a 23 game stretch (March and April), you should be able to go +45 over the whole season, we are talking outpacing Washington's inhuman pace this season.

Doing it this way instead is NOT the recommended way to get there, but whatever works I guess.

 

 

Looking Forward

6 games in April.  5-1 (+4) will finish it off and get to 94 points.

 

As of this writing, 94 points gets in 48% of the time (6-1) or 43.5% of the time (5-0-2)

95 points gets in 73.8% of the time, and 96 points gets in 91.6% of the time.

In other words, we don't control our destiny, but certainly probably need to win all of the last 6. 

 

The Canes are now also hurt by the fact that they lose most of the tiebreaking scenarios, so probably need to finish one more point ahead than the 2 teams they leapfrog, rather than tie them.

 

Regardless, it has been an amazing run.  GO CANES!

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1 hour ago, hag65 said:

 

So having to go +8 in a month is beyond ridiculous.  Jan and Feb killed this team.  Still, +4 in April (5-1) will get to +12 (94 points)

If you can go +12 over a 23 game stretch (March and April), you should be able to go +45 over the whole season, we are talking outpacing Washington's inhuman pace this season.

Doing it this way instead is NOT the recommended way to get there, but whatever works I guess.

 

Not recommended, yes.  But the only way right now.  Ottawa did essentially this 2 years ago.

 

1 hour ago, hag65 said:

 

The Canes are now also hurt by the fact that they lose most of the tiebreaking scenarios, so probably need to finish one more point ahead than the 2 teams they leapfrog, rather than tie them.

 

Regardless, it has been an amazing run.  GO CANES!

 

Tiebreakers are what is pushing them to achieve 95 or 96.  There's a good chance a few teams end at 94 and the tiebreaker comes into play.

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TB is only 1 ahead of us in ROWs, so we could pass them for the 1st tiebreaker (they win subsequent tiebreakers if we're tied in points and ROWs). But both Boston and Leafs are out of reach regarding tiebreakers so we'd need to finish ahead of them in points.  I'm not listing Isles anymore; they're toast imo.

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Just now, LakeLivin said:

TB is only 1 ahead of us in ROWs, so we could pass them for the 1st tiebreaker (they win subsequent tiebreakers if we're tied in points and ROWs). But both Boston and Leafs are out of reach regarding tiebreakers so we'd need to finish ahead of them in points.  I'm not listing Isles anymore; they're toast imo.

 

Only look ahead of us now.  If we have to look behind we aren't doing good enough. :)

 

I also looked at Ottawa as a potential, the negative goal differential they have indicates something.  If everyone wins every game someone is losing every game, it's just statistics.  Everyone can't win every game.  Someone should go 1-5 in the last 6 or even 0-6.  It just has to be the right teams, I know I know.

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16 minutes ago, hag65 said:

I also looked at Ottawa as a potential, the negative goal differential they have indicates something.  If everyone wins every game someone is losing every game, it's just statistics.  Everyone can't win every game.  Someone should go 1-5 in the last 6 or even 0-6.  It just has to be the right teams, I know I know.

Hadn't noticed Ottawa.  Yeah, right now they're stumbling to the finish line. Last 10 games:

Canes     7-0-3

Leafs      7-2-1

Bolts       7-3-0

Bruins     6-4-0

Sens      3-4-3

Edited by LakeLivin

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

TB is only 1 ahead of us in ROWs, so we could pass them for the 1st tiebreaker (they win subsequent tiebreakers if we're tied in points and ROWs). But both Boston and Leafs are out of reach regarding tiebreakers so we'd need to finish ahead of them in points.  I'm not listing Isles anymore; they're toast imo.

 

Boston, yes. But the Leafs are not. They are at 89 pts (36 ROW) and we are at 84 pts (33 ROW) while being 5 points back...both with 6 games to play. If they were to go 2-4-0, they would end up with 93 pts (38 ROW) and if we go 4-1-1, we end up with 93 pts (37 ROW). The leafs are easier to catch than the Bruins.

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2 hours ago, hag65 said:

Let's also get this straight.  The Canes had only 2 regulation losses in the 17 games in March, to Arizona and Colorado, the two worst teams in the league.

 

God, does this team know how to Cane or what? 

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Final Report

 

Sorry, this is late, was out of town for last week of season.  Just gonna finish this out to see how it all turned out.

 

Goal:  +12 by the end of the season.
The Canes ended at +5.  (36-31-15) for 87 points,   7 games/points behind schedule.

March performance was -3 (1-4-1).  

After a scorching March, blew a tire when all hope was lost.

 

Here are the final Hagmetric standings for the East:

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

Team          Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington    +36

Pittsburgh    +29

Columbus      +26

Atlantic

Montreal      +21

Ottawa        +16

Boston        +13

Wildcard

Rangers       +20

Toronto       +13

Out
Islanders     +12

Tampa Bay     +12

Philadelphia  +6

Carolina      +5

Florida       -1

Buffalo       -3

Detroit       -4

New Jersey    -12

 

How did the goal do versus reality?

All season the monthly goal tracked to the cut line.  The cut line ended up being +13 instead of +12.  With tiebreakers it could have been +14, but it was within 1 or 2 games.

 

What really sucks?

The Islanders won their last 6 games, got to +12, and still didn't get in.

 

How we did vs the pace

Month by month results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Month      Goal     Actual
_____      ____     ______
Oct        +1       -2
Nov        +3       +0
Dec        +5       +3
Jan        +7       +2
Feb        +9       +0
Mar        +11      +8
Apr        +12      +5

 

Why didn't we make it?

The guys have a good grasp on this.  If you listen to the post season interviews, they state 2 things:

1) "We can't go on long losing streaks.  Good teams don't."    The months we lost significant ground we had long losing streaks. (See Jan and Feb)

2) "We need to get off to a better start".   If you take October out...  November and December they performed at the required pace.  Start better and you are in a playoff slot at the end of December, holding down 7th or 8th.  

 

Looking Forward

Next season 2 things happen:

1) The Hurricanes make the playoffs

2) Hagmetrics 2.0.   We can make it better than it was.  Better... Stronger... Faster...

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