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Ranking The Prospects: An ongoing effort.

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On 3/12/2019 at 1:04 PM, gocanes0506 said:

 

7 Mattheos- im excited to see him get a tryout contract after his Juniors season is over. Could be a great add for Charlotte with 2-3 weeks before the playoffs start.

 

Just signed entry level deal, will start with Charlotte. I agree, this guy had a great Junior career. Interesting to see how he does on the #1 team in the AHL.

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Changes

My ratings (skaters)

1 Necas- finished the AHL season strong and carrying it into the playoffs.  Top 5 scorer in his first season. 60+% to make the roster next season 

2. Bean- really strong season. Big scorer and improved on defense. 50% chance of making the roster.

3 Geekie- huge riser this season. Big point getter, strong play, and handled every position and situation well.  35% roster shot. I feel like it is higher but he has to beat out a ton of roster forwards to get a shot. 

4 Sellgren- Biggest riser by far. Looks like the defensive corps just got deeper and Canes got a steal in the 6th round. In his rookie year in Sweden’s top league he was the rock on the SHL’s top defense. All situations defender, smooth skater. He got a tryout contract for the AHL even. Has one year left on his contract.

5 Kuok- good scorer, hopefully he recovers from his injury

6 Gauthier- doing much better this season in all areas. Still needs more consistency.

7 Mattheos- im excited to see him get a tryout contract after his Juniors season is over. Could be a great add for Charlotte with 2-3 weeks before the playoffs start.  

8 Drury- performed well as a freshman starter for Harvard.  Looks like a sneeky good 2nd round pick again for us.

9 Eetu Done well in his 2nd Liiga season.  PIMS are way too high but is Finland’s junior squad this summer

10 Saarela- big scorer this year on the top line. Skating is a question.

11 Cotton- scored 20 this season.  Going back to be a captain for his senior year.

12 Roy- big physical center. 

13 Henman put on weight young man. As an older statesman in the QMJHL, I thought we would see more out of him this season.

14 De Jong- scoring jumped significantly and is strong in the zone.  Didn’t get a tryout though. 

 

 

Goalie

Ned

Booth

Helvig

 

Henman and De Jong may fall off.  De Jong will if he becomes a FA.  We’ll how the 2nd rounders and the 28-31st pick lands on the list.

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http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/26739351/prospect-pool-risers-fallers-every-metropolitan-division-team

 


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Carolina Hurricanes

A prospect: Martin Necas
B prospects: Jake Bean, Aleksi Saarela, Stelio Mattheos, Morgan Geekie, Alex Nedeljkovic, Julien Gauthier and Janne Kuokkanen

Divisional prospect reports for all 31 NHL teams

Atlantic » | Metropolitan »
Central » | Pacific »

The Hurricanes have done well in loading up their NHL roster to make this run to the Eastern Conference final, but they have a second wave of prospects that is particularly strong. Necas has taken a nice step forward in his first full season of North American pro hockey, and Bean is looking like a fringe "A" prospect based on his first professional season. Saarela and Geekie should also have a shot at pushing for roster spots next season depending on how the offseason shakes out, and Nedeljkovic is looking more and more like an NHL goaltender. It's more likely he's a No. 2, but he could still develop into a starter.

The Hurricanes may not have a ton of elite prospects, but they have a large number of players developed in the AHL who could help filter into their lineup over the next two seasons or be possible bargaining chips in trades. Carolina is in a really good spot right now.

Breakout prospect: Jake Bean

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Thanks cc. Overall, can't disagree. I'd start moving Ned to A, but they sort of do that as well as hedge Bean up to sort of A -/B+, so that seems right. I am clearly not happy Fox walked on us, but Bean starting to put his game together still leaves us deep on D. 

 

If Ned, Necas and Bean all pan out the way it looks, just that would be big for us. But I think one or two of those other "B" guys will do something good too.

 

 

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I would never had thunk a guy with the name"Geekie" would be in the mix.  But........ he is until he isnt.  If he makes the transition I would consider a jersey just because.  It would be a "Geekie" army.

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2 hours ago, cc said:

I would never had thunk a guy with the name"Geekie" would be in the mix.  But........ he is until he isnt.  If he makes the transition I would consider a jersey just because.  It would be a "Geekie" army.

Seems like a guy who's name is already a hockey nickname. 

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3 hours ago, cc said:

I would never had thunk a guy with the name"Geekie" would be in the mix.  But........ he is until he isnt.  If he makes the transition I would consider a jersey just because.  It would be a "Geekie" army.

 

That may be a big part of why he is in the mix.  "The Boy Named Sue" effect. :P

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Last night on the Aftermath Forslund strongly suggested time for Ned to see the NHL.

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On 5/16/2019 at 11:17 AM, remkin said:

I am clearly not happy Fox walked on us, but Bean starting to put his game together still leaves us deep on D. 

 

 

Now that the run is over and we have time to talk about this, I am in agreement with you.  Clearly power play QB is a big weakness and he (Fox) is the goods there.  I watched him play a couple of games.  We really could use him there.

 

Maybe Bean is that guy, maybe Dougie.  But we need that guy, whoever he is.

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I haven't done my rankings in a while. Maybe I will soon, but I'm bumping this as a place to put this post instead.

 

Most fans don't really go deep into the prospect pool, but for those few that do, this is for you! I will say this, the prospect depth we sport is so far above anything we've ever had, that it's just sort of amazing. We have the guys who are ready or close to NHL ready: Necas, Gauthier, Bean, McKeown, Bishop, etc. We have guys sort of simmering in the middle who could definitely break out: Geekie at the top of that list, but Kuok, and Lousta, Matttheos, Jack Drury, Priskie, etc. But we also have the guys drafted this year on what I would call a "high risk - high reward" strategy. And that's what this post is about.

 

I just read a piece in the Athletic where Scott Wheeler, a long time writer with a deep interest in prospects and scouting, picked one prospect from each team most likely to take a big leap in their development. It's an interesting angle. Not each team's best prospect, but a sleeper, of sorts, that will jump up and break out from their expectations. 

 

For us he picked Anttoni Honka. This was our 5th pick, second in round 3, (#21 in the round). It is a pay site, but here's the link: https://theathletic.com/1261048/2019/10/04/wheeler-one-prospect-from-all-31-nhl-teams-poised-for-a-breakout-season/?source=weeklyemail&redirected=1  

 

and here's one quote from the article: "This, after Honka blew me away at the World Junior Summer Showcase this season. I stand by ranking him where I did on my final list (No. 20). His talent will supersede his shortcomings"He admits it's controversial, but also has others who agree, he has him as a late mid first rounder, while some did not have the guy on their entire draft board. 

 

There are two companion pieces, one that goes into depth about Honka: huge upside, skilled high IQ D man with elite offensive skills, downside positional D and skating, and size, the other got me thinking about this past draft. The second was about our first pick in the third: Patrik Puistola, who is almost the same story line, but as a winger. Two Finns with huge upside, but parts of their game they need to improve. BTW S. Wheeler is very high on Puistola too. 

 

But it reenforces our approach to a big chunk of the draft last year. Very high skilled players who had dropped or had question marks. Suzuki is the most skilled of them all, but he dropped a lot. Jamieson Rees, our second, second rounder at #13 in second round, is another high skilled guy who dropped due to a kidney laceration and suspension. Then the two Finns mentioned above. Even Kocehetkov taken #5 in second round, could be argued to have dropped some, but even if not, is a very high skilled prospect. 

 

We had 7 picks after the third round, so maybe at some point I'll dive into them, but at least the top half of our mega-haul draft is loaded with high skill potential. Skill wins if it can be brought to NHL level total game. As Wheeler put it in his article (paraphrase) these guys don't always pan out, but when their game does come together they are stars. 

 

With all of those picks, really if even one of the sub first rounders becomes a star, that is a very good draft. 

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I want to highlight one thing as I was re reading my post for errors. Honka was our 5th pick. So, he must have been at the bottom of the draft. But no, he fell a long ways, but he was still mid 3rd round because we had 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders, in a reportedly very deep draft. 

 

We are set up with an even better line up next year in an even better draft with so far, 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders (if Fox plays 30 games), and FOUR third rounders. Wow. Just wow.

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OK, going to take another whack at this crazy, thankless task. Ranking the prospects. For this list a prospect is anyone who hasn't played a full season and could easily be sent back into development if not there already. 

 

This list is based on my feelings about the player. Nothing else. In a way it is based on a list of players I'd least want to trade away, in a generic sense. It is a blend of NHL readiness and potential upside, with upside weighed more heavily. The exact order is sort of nuts to do, but at least in ranges it makes sense to me. 

 

We have a LOT of guys with NHL potential. So it is very hard to rank them. This year we drafted high skill guys that dropped, and traded for one. It's always tough to balance that with NHL readiness. Anyways, this one is biased to excitement about the player.

 

1. Necas. Needs to refine game, especially in D zone, but creativity and skill at speed give off the charts upside.

2. Gauthier. Huge move up after camp. He looks very close to NHL ready, and his upside is many goals. Would have been about #9 before camp.

3. Suzuki. Very high ceiling. Our scouts honestly had him ranked much higher than his draft order (#12 I think). Major skill.

4. Bean. #15 overall pick. Have to believe. Has PP skill and offensive skill, but taking a while to look comfortable at NHL level. 

5. McKeown. NHL ready. Jayson Shaya just called him "the most consistent defenseman in team history". The most damaged by the glut.

6. Morgan Geekie. This guy was seriously coming on the end of last year and the Calder run. Watch for him this year in Charlotte as the 1C.

7. Priskie. Might be a bit high for him, but he lit up college hockey, and choses to come here. Looks good in Charlotte so far per Shaya.

8. Dominik Bokk. I put the skill here. This guy was projected as the #2 prospect in the Blues system. Ranked #25 NHL prospect by Pronman, but slipped to #50.

9. Eetu Loustarinen. See above for recent scout saying watch him. NHL.com has him as our #5 prospect. Had a very good World Championship. 

10. Stelio Mattheos. Huge last two years in juniors. Only got a small # games finishing up in Charlotte. fast, great skater, great shot. 

11. Jack Drury. Had a very good Freshman year at Harvard. #4 points on team, #20 NCAA freshman. Insane pedigree in NHL.

12. Jamison Rees. High potential to make NHL. Work ethic strong, total package skills. Dropped due to injury/suspension. Picked ahead of Puistola and Honka. 

14. Antoni Honka. Very high ceiling offensive D man. Dropped in draft. Pronman LOVES this guy, some don't. Like high ceilings. 

15. Patrik Puistola. See Honka above, except high skilled winger that dropped.

16. Jesper Sellgren. 6th round pick. But the dude looks so smooth and poised with not that much AHL time. Could be higher, but so much D on this team.

17. Janne Kuokkanen. Way too low. He looked like he could play in the NHL last year. But realm says he cherry picks, and he didn't do much in camp.

18. Clark Bishop. He could play tomorrow. This list is just my long term excitement for the player. I think Bishop's upside is 4th line, but I'd put him there right now if needed.

 

After 18, I just don't really have much idea. But even after trading guys like Zykov, Saarela, and Roy, this is by far the strongest top 18 we've ever had. Really crazy-deep. 

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McKeown needs to slide down.
Sellgren is about 10 spots too low.  He looked like the best of all the young defenders during the preseason. 
I’ll wait to judge Bean based on a couple of months of AHL. The preseason would put him way lower on the list.

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Just now, gocanes0506 said:

McKeown needs to slide down.
Sellgren is about 10 spots too low.  He looked like the best of all the young defenders during the preseason. 
I’ll wait to judge Bean based on a couple of months of AHL. The preseason would put him way lower on the list.

I think McKeown was pretty good. A guy with hardly any NHL games could play now. Maybe not as much upside, but shutdown. I like Sellgren's game alot. He probably should be higher. We have so much D. I'm going upside on a lot of the guys ahead of him. Everyone on that list is pretty good. It's really hard to integrate guys from this year's draft, especially after Suzuki because they're going to fly way under the radar for a year, two or even three. Bean, yeah, Bean is still living on his draft position and a lot of talk of his game in the AHL. I agree with you on his camp. Every bit as much upside as Bean has, he has yet to look decent in NHL camp.

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The most impressive thing to me is that you could pick anyone off that list and make a realistic case for them making the NHL. 

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One of the cool things about having so many high upside prospects is that different ones keep breaking out and making news. Right now it's Rees on the Junior scene and Eetu on the Pro scene (if we pretty much move Necas out of prospect land and into real land). We can all see what Eetu (are we comfortable with Lusty?) is doing, but Rees has been lighting Junior hockey up. Here's some highlights from a piece on prospects on Yahoo:

 

You’d be hard pressed to find two hotter players in the OHL right now, or in all of junior hockey, than London Knights forward Connor McMichael, and Sarnia Sting forward Jamieson Rees...Rees’ 2.36 points per game puts him tenth (all time in points per game for under 19 players in the OHL)... He was suspended for six games after his first game of the year, where he picked up a head checking major against the Hamilton Bulldogs. Prior to his return, the Sting were 0-7. Upon his return, the Sting are 9-1.

 

...His insatiable appetite for the puck makes him an elite forechecker and three zone player. While his level of physicality can get him into penalty trouble at times, it also helps to make him such an impact player. Rees is also a dynamic offensive player because of his elite speed and creativity. He is able to make jaw dropping moves while in full stride and it has caused him to hit many highlight reels already this year.

 

Full article: https://sports.yahoo.com/prospects-report-191707003.html

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13 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

rem, Spenser Smallman, still hope for him or is he destined to stay in AHL/ECHL league? 

I guess there's always hope, especially with such a character guy, but given our depth, he's a massive longshot. He only got 12 games in the AHL and is 23 years old and back in the ECHL again. Given our depth, it's really hard to see him making it at all, and if he did, just a few games would probably be his upside IMO. Our director of scouting was pretty high on him about a year after we drafted him, but then when he was eligible he went right to the ECHL rather than AHL. He's had injuries too. He was a 5th rounder though, so it was always a long shot really.

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Just getting back to Rees for a minute. That #10 ranking is #10 in the history of the OHL for points per game. That is rarified air. There are many things that go into the scouting game and trying to predict how an 17-18 year old kid will fare in the big bad NHL. But the most consistently predictive thing is points per game. (Ironically this is true for D men too). And the debate about size vs. skill on this issue is pretty much put to bed with the likes of Mitch Marner and even more so Alex Debrincat. 

 

I noted Debrincat, because I remember when he was drafted. He was the ultimate tester of this. The guy was 5'7", 150 pounds. BUT he put up 127 points in 63 games for the Eirie Otters: 2.01 PPG his post-draft year. He dropped to the second round due to his Nathan Gerbe size. Last year he put up 41 goals, and 76 points in the NHL for Chicago. 

 

Rees is ahead of him for OHL ppg production so far. He's been injury prone, but the upside on this guy is sick.

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Well props to us for snatching Rees at #44 after a meh goalie pick of Kotchetkov at #36. I can't remember the last time we had a guy with sweet hands like this. Bokk seems to have a similar game. 

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Canescountry with an update on various prospects. 

 

https://www.canescountry.com/2019/10/21/20924836/carolina-hurricanes-prospect-corner-pyotr-kochetkov-patrik-puistola-ryan-suzuki

 

Rees is the standout, with David Cotton starting strong at BC. He's a senior now, and could do the wait until becoming a UFA thing a la Adam Fox. Tukka Tieksola has 1.54 ppg in U20 Finland (man do we love drafting Fins. Not that there's anything wrong with that). 

 

Suzuki started strong back in Juniors, but...one of the reasons prospects are so hard to follow is so little public info. Our first round pick from last year Ryan Suzuki was reported to have a potentially very serious eye injury November 5th. That was 9 days ago, and I can't find a single update on his condition. 

 

Goalies are just frankly a different breed. I absolutely don't give up on Kochetkov, who was considered the second best goalie in a draft with a, "once every 10 years" goalie prospect above him. He couldn't get settled in St Petersberg, but that is not a terminal inditement. He's been traded, and will get more regular playing time and hopefully start to really show his stuff from this point on. Goalies, can't figure'em out, can't win without a good one.

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What is sad about Rees is if he doesn’t make the squad next season, he has to go back to Juniors. 

Was rees injured the last 2 seasons? He played 46 and 37 games over the last 2. I wonder if that is why he wasn’t as high as his talent suggests.

 

he is 4 points short of last season’s point total with 25 games in hand..  

Edited by gocanes0506

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11 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

What is sad about Rees is if he doesn’t make the squad next season, he has to go back to Juniors. 

Was rees injured the last 2 seasons? He played 46 and 37 games over the last 2. I wonder if that is why he wasn’t as high as his talent suggests.

 

he is 4 points short of last season’s point total with 25 games in hand..  

1. I've been railing about that NHL-Canadian Junior hockey rule for years. I think every team should have an exemption. Even if it's just one every two years or something. I've heard players say that last year in Juniors was a waste and others say it wasn't. But for the very high end guy, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't be better off facing at least a slightly higher level of competition. European players get to go back and play in their men's leagues in Finland, Sweden, even Russia. 

 

2. Rees was injured, a few times. The worst helped us get him. He sustained a lacerated kidney that kept him out 2 months and also had a long suspension. 

 

3. He was also held down a bit by size even though size is losing its hold on drafting, it's still a factor. 

 

I really like how we're drafting in general when we are picking late. Even with Suzuki. Picking the guys with the huge upside who slide down the draft for various reasons. The fact that so few late rounders make the NHL anyways, makes it a relative low risk, high reward strategy. Suzuki, Rees, Puistola, Honka, and more. Even Bokk though we traded for him, falls into that category. (Suzuki was a first rounder, but late first rounder and had fallen. He had higher end talent, our team had him ranked #12 on their board).

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If Rees maintains his legitimacy and Cotton continues his hot run, our top prospects will be hard to grade 1-15.

 

Guys like Kuok and Gauthier are quickly being pushed down the order. This may be the first time we should look to move some of these guys in a trade deadline scenario (or sooner). Preferably move a current roster guy with a prospect to get better that is more than a rental.

 

The organization has the potential to add Bokk, Cotton, Puistola, Tieksola, Zimmer, and Stevens to the forward group next season in Charlotte.  Bokk is a for sure. Cotton will be as long as he signs with us.  Puistola and Tieksola are choices based on the organization's opinion on their usage in the Finnish leagues.  We'll see how strong Zimmer and Stevens seasons are and if they get PTO opportunity after NCAA's are over.  

Edited by gocanes0506

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Been waiting forever for an update on Suzuki's eye injury. Sara Civ updated that it sounds like he's going to be ok. It was reportedly a very scary injury. 

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