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remkin

Ranking The Prospects: An ongoing effort.

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16 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

I went through this a little before, the organization needs to do serious evaluations.  We can use the late bloomer guys like Kaski and Lorentz, Kuokkanen who is redundant in our system, and a 2nd or 3rd round pick without losing anything of value to the organization. Getting a rental wouldn’t be that harsh. I think DeMelo wouldn’t cost a ton. He can easily slide as Gardiner’s partner and let Pesce play up.  It also puts very little pressure on Hamilton when he returns. I wonder if a Lorentz/Kuokkanen and a swap of Rangers and Dallas’ 2nd round picks get it done?  They increase one picks’ spot by 8-10. In my dreams dump them Nino along with other things to get JGP and DeMelo. Our secondary scoring is basically poop right now. Nino would give them a solid veteran to play along side their youngsters for 2 more years.  A pipe dream though.
 

the real evaluation is goalie. Is Ned who we want pairing with Reimer next year?  Would we rather get a Lehner and have Ned be his backup? Or because the big salaries haven’t hit, Reimer be the backup?  
 

we could have up to 5 guys from our list make the roster next year (Bean, Gauthier, Geekie/Eetu, Drury, and Ned). How the pieces fit will be interesting.

 

I will say that I agree with the idea of internal evaluations of prospects and trading them instead of picks. I'd argue that some guys who just haven't gotten to our NHL level by a certain point are better trade bait. I did see Roy on Vegas, and thought he might not get there, but it will bear watching him, Saarella, and others we've moved over the next few years.  I have come to value second rounders more over time. Partly because we've had a better than average track record with picking them. True, all told second rounders hit around 1 in 4. But we've done better. I'm not saying I wouldn't trade a second rounder (especially a late rounder), but that I'd be hesitant to do it for a rental. The one exception would be goal. But that's just me. I would absolutely give up a second rounder if we made a hockey trade. Maybe I'm just drunk on compiling prospects, but I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.

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12 minutes ago, remkin said:

I will say that I agree with the idea of internal evaluations of prospects and trading them instead of picks. I'd argue that some guys who just haven't gotten to our NHL level by a certain point are better trade bait. I did see Roy on Vegas, and thought he might not get there, but it will bear watching him, Saarella, and others we've moved over the next few years.  I have come to value second rounders more over time. Partly because we've had a better than average track record with picking them. True, all told second rounders hit around 1 in 4. But we've done better. I'm not saying I wouldn't trade a second rounder (especially a late rounder), but that I'd be hesitant to do it for a rental. The one exception would be goal. But that's just me. I would absolutely give up a second rounder if we made a hockey trade. Maybe I'm just drunk on compiling prospects, but I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.

Roy looked like a very solid 4th center in our 2 games against Vegas this past week. Although he never got a real shot here.  Saarela looks like a bust at this point.  

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Another point in the Wheeler write up is our definitive style,  where he agrees with me. I guess it's pretty clear to close observers, but that we are going high risk/reward on a lot of picks (and I'd add our trade for Bokk). We are picking high upside guys who dropped for various reasons. We're willing to take a good number of busts to find that one guy. 

 

I love this approach. Most guys taken don't make it anyways. And if they do make it as 4th liners, that's nice, but there tend to be a bunch of guys who can fill that role. But you need just one Aho to make the bottom half of a draft, arguably the bottom half of a few drafts. Just need one or two of an entire list of guys to become a high end player to make the entire approach worth it.

 

This is especially true for a small market team that can't just Ranger it up with UFA's . Getting high end talent is not easy.

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16 minutes ago, remkin said:

Another point in the Wheeler write up is our definitive style,  where he agrees with me. I guess it's pretty clear to close observers, but that we are going high risk/reward on a lot of picks (and I'd add our trade for Bokk). We are picking high upside guys who dropped for various reasons. We're willing to take a good number of busts to find that one guy. 

 

I love this approach. Most guys taken don't make it anyways. And if they do make it as 4th liners, that's nice, but there tend to be a bunch of guys who can fill that role. But you need just one Aho to make the bottom half of a draft, arguably the bottom half of a few drafts. Just need one or two of an entire list of guys to become a high end player to make the entire approach worth it.

 

This is especially true for a small market team that can't just Ranger it up with UFA's . Getting high end talent is not easy.

That is why Lapierre will a later 1st round pick for us. His upside is unlimited but his concussion history is a huge concern this year. Maybe even into the 2nd round if he slides.

Edited by gocanes0506

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Interesting looking a bit deeper into the report. He likes Geekie in his write up, but lists him as our #16 prospect and almost in the third and final tier of guys. I wonder how closely Wheeler watches the AHL. The guys he puts into the highest end upside: Suzuki, Bean, Honka, Puistola, Rees, and Drury in that order. Bokk is just out due to inconsistency but tops the next level.  I'd put Geekie higher.

 

Interesting a bit off my radar highest rank: Dom Fensore, now at BU. He is a very atypical, high skill D man at 5'7".  

 

Interesting he has Gauthier at 9. Saying much more...well it's worth paying for the Athletic IMO, but especially for anyone into prospects. Other guys on there we don't discuss much.

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It comes down to where he sees them at similar ages not skillset now. We would all reasonably expect Geekie to closer to a NHL roster spot but the guys above will probably be top 6 guys when they make it. Geekie probably tops out at a checking line RW or 4th line center.

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Yeah, it's pretty easy to nitpick rankings, especially ones that go deep. I'd put Geekie a bit higher since this is just his second AHL season, the strength of his finish last year and his recent surge.

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On 1/16/2020 at 9:57 AM, remkin said:

Got me thinking about the guy we are probably thinking could be the guy in goal one day: Kochetkov. The problem is that I have no idea what the structure of the KHL is. I do know that the team he was on in St Petersburgh, is elite, but he was #3 on the depth chart and after several games with a save percentage below .900 he was traded to Podolsk Vityaz (still KHL). But I start to lose the thread on his stats after that. He played 7 games there and put up .922 save percentage, which seems pretty good, but then has stats listed for 2 games in SKA NEVA St Petersburgh (which must be a lower league listed as VHL) he was .940 in those two games, but then has 2 games with Russkie Vityazi Chekov, which is listed as MHL, where he was .908). 

 

Clearly he's bouncing around ALOT. He has played 17 games spread among 4 teams. But his save percentage has been up and down. Not great in St Petersburgh, but very good in Podolsk, yet he still got sent down with a .922 save %? I don't have shots and saves, but just sort of averaging his save percentages weighted to games played, he is around .923 since he left St Petersburgh.

 

Anyway, goalies are so tough to know, and following a guy bouncing around in Russia is pretty hard. Hopefully someone in the know will write something up at some point. 

 

Rem,

 

Late add here, just a bit of info...

 

VHL is the league just below the KHL. I guess it's the KHL's version of the AHL - in fact, there's been an effort to make the VHL like the AHL in the sense that each KHL team has a VHL affiliate to get player from, but it's not all the way there.

 

The MHL is, as far as I can tell, the top Junior league in Russian and associated countries.

 

 

Edited by JonKerfoot
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On 2/10/2020 at 1:58 PM, JonKerfoot said:

 

Rem,

 

Late add here, just a bit of info...

 

VHL is the league just below the KHL. I guess it's the KHL's version of the AHL - in fact, there's been an effort to make the VHL like the AHL in the sense that each KHL team has a VHL affiliate to get player from, but it's not all the way there.

 

The MHL is, as far as I can tell, the top Junior league in Russian and associated countries.

 

 

Kochetkov is with the MHL  i think ,  not sure entirely .   As for Slepets  last time i checked up on him  it mentioned  he was still with the KHL   but  information about the guy is very slim .   

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Im trying to find  more info  and recent videos of  kirill slepets   but the only thing im finding  is    video from last year or 2016 .    I wonder if  he was  a throw away pick ?

Edited by Canesfanforever

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It looks like he played regular season in KHL, but his team finished 11th out of 12 and definitely missed playoffs which is currently underway.

His stat for 33 games is 4G 3A -2 rating. It is said he has a two-way contract till 30.04.2022

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6 hours ago, Caniac514 said:

It looks like he played regular season in KHL, but his team finished 11th out of 12 and definitely missed playoffs which is currently underway.

His stat for 33 games is 4G 3A -2 rating. It is said he has a two-way contract till 30.04.2022

11th out of 12 and he was only a -2   in 33 games ?   im guessing he was not played much during the games  for toi . 

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35 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

11th out of 12 and he was only a -2   in 33 games ?   im guessing he was not played much during the games  for toi . 

Average TOI/game 12:56, full stats for the last two seasons in KHL is here.

He also played 21 games in VHL in 2019/2020: 8G 7A +6, 16:53 average TOI

You make conclusions then :)

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12 hours ago, Caniac514 said:

Average TOI/game 12:56, full stats for the last two seasons in KHL is here.

He also played 21 games in VHL in 2019/2020: 8G 7A +6, 16:53 average TOI

You make conclusions then :)

I know the vhl is  the khl's  version of the ahl  .   and they have other leagues   for their youth   like the mhl   .   it gets really tough to find info on  players  let alone video  for those russian players . 

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So the Canes have purged many of their best prospects on the "close to NHL ready" part of the curve over the past two years. Personally I think that they've moved on from the right guys, and kept the right guys. The only one that makes me anxious is Gauthier, but it does appear we got fair value in Keane. So even if Gauthier has a nice NHL career, it would only be a bust if Keane flames out.

 

I have two views on the trading of these guys. The good, outside of Gauthier and maybe Roy or Priskie, I personally don't think we gave up much. The bad: we also didn't get much back. Roy got us Haula. Good idea. Lots of goals to start the year. Then fizzle, but flipped with Wallmark, Priskie and Luostarinen for Trochek. That ends up being a lot of bodies for Trochek though Haula is just a rental for them. In some ways it ended up being Roy, Wallmark, Priskie, and Luostarinen for Trochek. That is a lot of first graders. It will depend on whether Trocheck ends up being a 5th grader, and if any of the first graders break out. 

 

On those guys going out I think they all have limited upside. IMO Priskie has the most, but it's far from certain. 

 

Zykov was claimed on waivers. Kuok for Vatanen? Well that return could be zero. At least if Vatanen never plays we keep all of our picks. I get the move, but it might end up being a panic move in the end. But if we get some sort of playoff and Vatanen contributes to a run? Then it would be worth it. Not long term though. 

 

Saarela brought back the Fors': Forsberg and Forsling (along with CDH going out too of course). I remain cool on that trade, but due to the CDH part not so much Saarela. 

 

So arguably we did not really gain that much for all of those guys. If we hold back the Goat for Keane swap, we basically got Trocheck as the only tangible piece. Essentially the equation: Roy + Kuokanene + Luostarinen + Priskie + Saarlela + Wallmark + Zykov (waivers) = Trocheck +/- Forsberg (27 yo goalie). 

 

I think we could do better at the return for sure. That's why it's tough to trade guys before they get into the NHL: squat return. That said, it's also tough because when you have a lot of good prospects, you have to trade some of them as prospects. 

 

Still, all that said, I think we have kept our best prospects here. 

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The guys we did not trade with still nice to very nice upside:

 

Most NHL ready:

 

Geekie. This is the main guy I did not want to trade (besides goat). He has progressed offensively at every level, and has very nice NHL potential as a 3C or better. Clearly bust onto the scene right before Covid and has the inside track to be on this team next year at least. 

 

Bean. According to people in Charlotte, he looks ready. His adjusted points jumped from 52 last season to 67 this season. 

 

Keane. AHL all star at 20. 

 

Coming Up:

 

Suzuki: very high end talent. Can we get him to play the NHL game.

Bokk: Same

Puistola: Same

Honka: Same

 

Drury: all around game, nice sophomore year at Harvard

Rees: high end upside.

 

Cotton: nice college career, but might go UFA.

 

There is a lot of nice potential to fold into our current core and arguably the highest upside guys all stayed in the system, especially if we consider Goat for Keane a draw.

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I think the wisdom of the Trocheck trade will be determined next year. E. Staal did squat with the Rangers as a TD rental, but came back with Minnesota and had a very nice season in 2018-9. Trocheck could do that with the Canes and be the 2C we have needed for so long. If he is still a bust, I still don’t think the trade was so bad. At least our management tried SOMETHING to salvage this season. That has not been the case for the life of this franchise. I kind of hate that we gave up Wallmark because he had established himself as a NHL role player - 4th line center, PK, good at face offs, could slide up when needed. And though he didn’t score a ton, it seemed like to me he scored a decent number of goals that mattered. As for the rest, we don’t need 15 prospects knocking on the door, knowing there is only so much playing time in Charlotte, and only a couple will ever have meaningful careers in the NHL. I like what I’ve seen from Geekie, and by all accounts Bean is as ready as he’s going to get. I don’t see Rod bringing up more than 2 rookies next year, so start with those two, and see whether someone takes away their spot next year in camp. Trocheck and Skjei have NHL track records, and that is worth more than a handful of magic beans plus Wallmark. Just my .02.

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I agree BDC. Trocheck might have started to fit in more and more and then helped in playoffs, but at this point, probably a full camp and next year will tell the tale. Skjei too. I have to think that the committee has a long term plan for him since we gave up a first rounder. Given how much depth we have at LHD, someone will have to go, but if it's Skjei it would be a bit surprising. The exception could be the return. If Skjei brings back a key forward, then it could make some sense, but really I have to think Gardiner is gone next year. 

 

Something just hit me on Gardiner. Remember how Brind'Amour kept burying Fleury presumably Brind'Amour just didn't feel comfortable with the very few gaffs that Fleury had. Well imagine how Brind'Amour must really have felt every time Gardiner bone-headed it. I can only imagine that every time he talked to the media about Gardiner adjusting and other positives, that Brind'Amour's brain was screaming, "this guy has to go first chance". 

 

I do think Gardiner had gotten better, but I just don't see us paying so much for a bottom pair guy. Not that TD wouldn't write the check, but there is a cap and it is not a smart cap move to pay your bottom pair big bucks. The smart cap move is to sign Fleury for a longish term at cheapish money. Then do the same with Bean eventually. Hard to see how Gardiner survives that dynamic.

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