Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
OBXer

Trade rumors and talk

Recommended Posts

50 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Why in the world would the Avs want Ryan Murphy?  If he wasn't a first round pick I think he would have been shipped out long ago.  He might be worth a late round pick or something but he's not somebody to build a team around.

 

Maybe they need to ship something and heard he comes with packing peanuts? :P

 

Another thing to consider is that, unlike us, defensively they're much deeper on the right side than left side, another reason Murphy isn't likely to be a good sweetener in any deal with the Avs.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure we are kicking tires in Colorado but I saw this the other day

 

Quote

Darren Dreger reports the Colorado Avalanche seek “a top-level defenseman, a first-round pick plus” for Landeskog.

 

We would be crazy to do that.  Although it didn't spell it out the asking price for Duchene was about the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I want to complement the discussion, interesting takes. I was trying earlier to feel out people's feelings about Hanifin. I'd love to know Coastal's take on Hanifin as a keen watcher of defense. I am mesmerized by his slickness, and skill most of the time. But also see the turnovers and positional issues that pop up.

 

My take is that trading Hanifin would be a "risky" move for Francis because of his potential. Maybe not this year or next, but at some point, say when he reaches the elderly age of 22, he starts to gel into that rarest of commodities: the dominant #1 Dman. Nearly every team that wins the cup has one of them. When it looked like maybe Faulk could be that, then fine, but that just seems less likely.  Maybe Slavin? But he needs more offense. Fleury? Maybe but at least 1 year behind if not more.

 

The idea is not crazy though, mainly because there is little doubt that it would help now. This year. Whatever Hanifin might become, he is clearly not there now. And no matter how good Hanifin gets, Duchene is proven, and if though Landeskog is having an off year, he's pretty proven too, so it's not like there would be nothing to show on our end, even if Hanifin did turn into all that. The losss of Hanifin THIS year would be less impactful than the loss of Faulk IMO. Still, the now in favor of the future is less in keeping with Francis' modus. BTW if we are really interested in the future, and like him, Landeskog would be the guy as he is locked up longer than Duchene.

 

I think it really comes down to the eyeballs and judgement of Francis/Peters/Steve Smith on Hanifin in the context of reasoned, historical expectations for development. I honestly don't know, but I suspect that there are many examples of elite dmen who took a few years to go from obvious skill to getting the NHL game down. I guess in a similar vein is Slavin or might Fleury eventually be that guy? Fluery is also big and smooth skating, and was the #2 Dman taken in that draft, yet clearly Hanifin impressed substantially more, since he was put right into the NHL.

 

Anyways, if Colorado is asking the moon, as in OBXer's just now quote, then it won't happen. Whatever Francis might do, I think he does not give away arguably our most elite prospect (if we consider Hanifin a prospect) and our first round pick for next year. One thing I do know is that Francis is still mentally in draft and develop mode. You will have to pry our first rounder next year from his clenched fist.

 

I've made it clear that to my eye Hanifin has elite upside, and elite dmen are very hard to come by. Like elite 1C's and elite goalies, teams go years or decades trying to get one. Have we every had one? Wesley maybe. If I am right, neither Duchene or Landeskog is worth Hanifin straight up (long run), let alone Hanifin plus our first rounder.

 

But I realize I could be wrong or that Francis et all may not share my opinion. Clearly, they know, I guess. So if they are less amazed and confident about Hanifin's future, and knowing we have Slavin/Pesce/Faulk/Fleury/Bean and McKeown still, it could make more sense than I think. It would definitely make more sense for this year's team. But I just think Francis has his eyes on a longer horizon.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Why in the world would the Avs want Ryan Murphy?  If he wasn't a first round pick I think he would have been shipped out long ago.  He might be worth a late round pick or something but he's not somebody to build a team around.

In exchange for Jeremy Smith? That's what I'm suggesting: Faulk (or McKeown/Bean) brings back the forward, and Murphy brings back the potential G we need. That said, and while I hear you re Murphy and what he doesn't bring, he's someone we've spotted, a #7 with 134 NHL games under his belt. If the Avs are in a rebuild, he could have similar facility for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

In exchange for Jeremy Smith? That's what I'm suggesting: Faulk (or McKeown/Bean) brings back the forward, and Murphy brings back the potential G we need. That said, and while I hear you re Murphy and what he doesn't bring, he's someone we've spotted, a #7 with 134 NHL games under his belt. If the Avs are in a rebuild, he could have similar facility for them.

 

Well, we will just have to agree to disagree on Ryan Murphy.  Like I said previously, if he wasn't a #7 pick I don't think we would be having this conversation because he wouldn't have been resigned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, remkin said:

Anyways, if Colorado is asking the moon,

At the risk of :deadhorse:  this to me is the whole shmegegie. I've saiid it before: Sakic is trying to leverage Landeskog and Duchene into a shortcut to rebuilding. Unfortunately, and by his own actions, he's in no position to make demands. He has made clear these guys are on the table, so now the market will tell him what they're worth. It's too bad he's in that position, but hey, we were too, and instead of dealing with it unrealistically, we did what we had to do, by unloading the salary that put us there--for whatever we could get. It was the unfortunate but absolutely necessary first step in icing the team we now are, and Sakic is in the same boat. Unless and until he realizes this and bargains based on what people are willing to pay during the season, when teams want these players, he's going to be practically giving them away over the summer.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Well, we will just have to agree to disagree on Ryan Murphy.  Like I said previously, if he wasn't a #7 pick I don't think we would be having this conversation because he wouldn't have been resigned.

I'm cool with that. Just saying I'd market him to CO primarily as an AHL D-man for an AHL keeper, i.e., both teams are taking a chance on whether they eventually make NHL grade. I do think RF wants to move Ryan out, and was just wondering, I guess, whether others agree.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the other side of the Duchene/Landeskog thing is who would we want of the two? Initially I wanted the higher scoring center, especially since we needed a center, and it is nice and easy to just look Duchene/Staal/Rask down the middle and get a big smile. And I still would, at least ignoring the cost it would take to get him for the moment. 

 

But now that TT is settling into center, (and frankly to my eye Rask seems to be upping his game again), the need for center is less. Some would argue that a center is worth more de facto, but that is a smaller issue now.

 

Duchene: #3 overall pick

Landes: #2 overall pick

 

Duchene 25 years old (but 2 draft years older)

Landes: 24 years old

 

Duchene: center

Landes: winger

 

Duchene: career average 61 points per year, best 70 points

Landes: career average 55 points per year, best 65 points

 

Duchene: 5'11"

Landes: 6'1"

 

Duchene career plus minus: -40 (but only -10 the last 5 years)*

Landes: career plus minus: +20 (even over past 5 years)*

 

Duchene: .67 ppg this year (55 point pace)

Landes: .43 ppg this year (36 point pace)

 

Duchene: contract: 2 more years after this year $6 mill/year

Landes: contract: 4 more years after this year $6 mill/year

 

Duchene: did that weird goal celebration of personal milestone in team loss and bad year.

Landes: Captain

 

That last one is really subjective. I really don't know the character differences, but hopefully if we did a deal our brass does.

 

* plus/minus is, as always, a very tricky stat. In this case Duchene piled up a lot of his minus early in his career. The past 5 years, the advantage to Landeskog is about +2 per year. Not enough to matter. So I see this as a very slight edge to Landeskog, but really not enough to be significant, despite how bad it looks at first glance.

 

I'm not sure we go wrong with either guy. I don't know why Landeskog is so off this year. I would think it might lower his value a touch, but other factors might pick it back up.

 

Francis wants to build for the future and having to negotiate with Duchene in 2.5 years could be an issue vs. Landeskog being locked down for 4.5 years. The 4th period lists Landeskog as having some limited NTC not sure about that or how it would affect things, but you all know I don't like them, and they are worse with longer deals: ie, I tend to view Landsekog's longer deal as a big plus vs. Duchene, but if he struggles and then we can't trade him, it becomes a risk.

 

During the offseason, Landeskog got a C+ grade from an Avs blogger, for an off season. Well, he's having a worse one this year. He's also had concussion issues in the past.

 

Landeskog seems to be viewed as a guy who has proven to be a top 6, 20 goal guy but with bigger upside who could still break out. but is following up an off year with a very off year. He's bigger and has better leadership qualities. He's locked down for much longer. Duchene is a proven 60 point dynamic scorer who is having a slight off year, but still on a 55 point pace. Duchene is an amazingly consistent point producer.

 

I think I'm talking myself into Duchene if the price is even. If they will mark Landeskog down for his off-year, he would still be a good pickup.

 

That said, if the price were a touch lower for Landeskog, he is more of a long term guy, still 2 draft years younger, has more of a Francis feel to him.

 

For immediate pop though, gotta go with the proven, steady point getter: Duchene.

 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Freidman, here:

 

“As for which of the two goes first, I’d be lying if I said I could answer that one totally,” continued Friedman of the remaining Landeskog and Duchene. “I think there are teams in on Landeskog. I think the price is higher for Duchene. But I can see a team that thinks they can win it this year making a run for Duchene because he’s such a scorer right now.”

Landeskog's history with Skinner, longer deal, and our stage of development makes him the obvious choice to me. And regarding the price, a bit more as to why Sakic is asking waaaaay too much (if the reports of what he's seeking are true. Larsson is a very good Dman with some offensive upside--but nothing ridiculous. He's fourth among Edmonton D in TOI (Behind Sekera, Nurse, and Klefbom). And he brought the Devils back a NUMBER ONE OVERALL pick.

 

Sakic thinking any team is going to give up a top-pairing D-man with big offensive upside for either Duchene or Landeskog is, blunty, dreaming. Especially a team in the running for all the marbles, because those teams don't need the scoring as much in the first place. I get that Sakic WANTS a top guy. But I've I've been saying all along, what he wants and what he can get are not, at least not yet, lining up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, remkin said:

So I want to complement the discussion, interesting takes. I was trying earlier to feel out people's feelings about Hanifin. I'd love to know Coastal's take on Hanifin as a keen watcher of defense. I am mesmerized by his slickness, and skill most of the time. But also see the turnovers and positional issues that pop up.

.......

I've made it clear that to my eye Hanifin has elite upside, and elite dmen are very hard to come by. Like elite 1C's and elite goalies, teams go years or decades trying to get one. Have we every had one? Wesley maybe. If I am right, neither Duchene or Landeskog is worth Hanifin straight up (long run), let alone Hanifin plus our first rounder.

 

 

My thoughts pretty well align with yours Rem.  To add, we didn't draft Hanifin to be Slavin or Pesce.  We drafted him to be a left-side offensive d-man.  Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Slavin and Pesce but neither of those players IMO project to be big offensive producers, particularly Pesce. 

 

We know what Slavin and Pesce can do defensively, I'm not sure what we have yet in Hanifin offensively.  But my gut watching some of the things he does now says it's going to be very very good. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

My thoughts pretty well align with yours Rem.  To add, we didn't draft Hanifin to be Slavin or Pesce.  We drafted him to be a left-side offensive d-man.  Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Slavin and Pesce but neither of those players IMO project to be big offensive producers, particularly Pesce. 

 

We know what Slavin and Pesce can do defensively, I'm not sure what we have yet in Hanifin offensively.  But my gut watching some of the things he does now says it's going to be very very good. 

Great observations, both of you. I do wonder if RF would be willing to give up Pesce (personally I'm not), but that being said, and yeah Noah's slick as all get out and does have tremendous offensive upside, but I'm not sure what value that has if his defense is as - frankly - bad as we're seeing. I of course think he's got the hockey IQ to be better in his own end. But right now I'm seeing Justin Faulk without the offense. 

 

Speaking purely for myself, I don't care how great a Dman is offensively if he's a liability on the other side of the puck. I'd rather have three explosive lines, a shutdown fourth that can cycle and occasionally score in the O-zone, and an absolutely smothering D with a couple of guys who can move the puck on the PP, than have an offensively elite but defensively lacking Dman just for the sake of having that guy.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Speaking purely for myself, I don't care how great a Dman is offensively if he's a liability on the other side of the puck. I'd rather have three explosive lines, a shutdown fourth that can cycle and occasionally score in the O-zone, and an absolutely smothering D with a couple of guys who can move the puck on the PP, than have an offensively elite but defensively lacking Dman just for the sake of having that guy.   

 

 

You're speaking for me as well on this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

My thoughts pretty well align with yours Rem.  To add, we didn't draft Hanifin to be Slavin or Pesce.  We drafted him to be a left-side offensive d-man.  Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Slavin and Pesce but neither of those players IMO project to be big offensive producers, particularly Pesce. 

 

We know what Slavin and Pesce can do defensively, I'm not sure what we have yet in Hanifin offensively.  But my gut watching some of the things he does now says it's going to be very very good. 

 

 

 

Do appreciate the input Coastal. I've wondered a bit if I'm alone on Hanifin. I know we were pretty much all on board with his being picked that highly, but since then...it's been a bit less enthusiastic.

 

I watched McGinn pot two tonight and listened to Forslund driving home talk about patience with young guys and I thought dang, McGinn is about to turn 23 and just now finding his NHL game. (I'm really happy to see that) but Hanifin is still 19, and plays a harder position to learn. Heck Hayden Fleury was the #2 D man taken the year before Hanfin, and still not in the NHL.

 

Francis guards his young picks like a mother hen, so I really don't see him trading the guy who could end up being one of, or even the best pick he's made, but to me Hanifin is pretty close to untouchable.


I also agree his offense will come. Faulk's first two years, he was .33 and .39 ppg, Hanifin: .22 and .35, but Hanifin's first year he was 18.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would have been nice to see JML come back over the summer.  He seemed to be a settling influence on Hanifin.  I'm certainly not ready to give up on a 19 year old d-man who is in a learning point in his career.  I'm not saying he is untouchable in trade talks, but I'm not going to be too critical on his progress.

Edited by super_dave_1
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, super_dave_1 said:

  I'm certainly not ready to give up on a 19 year old d-man who is in a learning point in his career.  I'm not saying he is untouchable in trade talks, but I'm not going to be too critical on his progress.

I'm less critical than others when it comes to his play. Yes,he is 19 and shows many signs of his talent. His best development is yet to come. I don't think he is in the untouchable category "yet", but the returning piece would have to be high. RF knows this and will keep playing the waiting game as he is in the driver's seat. If the team keeps winning he is more likely to hold pat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

It would have been nice to see JML come back over the summer.  He seemed to be a settling influence on Hanifin.  I'm certainly not ready to give up on a 19 year old d-man who is in a learning point in his career.  I'm not saying he is untouchable in trade talks, but I'm not going to be too critical on his progress.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if RF looked at bringing Liles back for depth and to continue mentoring, especially given our expansion draft situation.  But Boston overpaid for Liles at $2m for the year imo, and I can't see RF getting into a bidding war, especially over a 35yo d-man.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised if RF looked at bringing Liles back for depth and to continue mentoring, especially given our expansion draft situation.  But Boston overpaid for Liles at $2m for the year imo, and I can't see RF getting into a bidding war, especially over a 35yo d-man.

 

$2m wouldn't have been bad, but he would have  have been willing to sign here.  Who knows what goes on behind the scenes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

 

$2m wouldn't have been bad, but he would have  have been willing to sign here.  Who knows what goes on behind the scenes?

 

I'm thinking $1.5m per myself, but I'm guessing that RF would have also wanted a 2 year contract in order to lock down "Faulk expansion protection" and that 2nd year would have to be even cheaper given Liles age. 

 

Another thing is that I get the feeling that if one of RFs initial negotiations isn't successful, he may basically write a player off, even if the player is later willing to reconsider a contract within Francis' original range.  We'll likely never know what actually happened, if anything.  But I'd love to have a mole in the Canes front office to get the scoop on things like this, our interactions with TB regarding Drouin, details regarding Wiz and Nash, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lake I'll give  you one piece of insider info on Drouin, that I have not heard publicly.  Francis made a bid on him that he said was very creative. He mentioned that another team then tried to use his idea and offered up a similar package. He didn't say what the deal was, but I can tell you for a fact that he made a strong play for Drouin.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this talk of JML got me thinking about how quietly good Hainsey has been. No, his plus minus is not great, but he rarely makes a mistake, and is that confident, calming influence. This team is short on long-toothed veterans, and Hainsey has to be helpful that way too. He's a pro. He'll be 36 at the end of the year, but I still think he'd be a good bottom pair guy next year too. He's slow, but he's never been a speed demon, and he's a cagey veteran.  I know we've got a few top notch young guns pushing up, but we could do worse than keeping him. I've always assumed he'd move on, and he probably will, but I wouldn't cry if we gave him a short deal.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Switching gears.  Staal is on pace for 78 points this season.  Must not be washed up after all.  Who would have thought that if you put an elite winger with an elite center they both would really peoduce?

Edited by bluedevil58

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, remkin said:

All this talk of JML got me thinking about how quietly good Hainsey has been. No, his plus minus is not great, but he rarely makes a mistake, and is that confident, calming influence. This team is short on long-toothed veterans, and Hainsey has to be helpful that way too. He's a pro. He'll be 36 at the end of the year, but I still think he'd be a good bottom pair guy next year too. He's slow, but he's never been a speed demon, and he's a cagey veteran.  I know we've got a few top notch young guns pushing up, but we could do worse than keeping him. I've always assumed he'd move on, and he probably will, but I wouldn't cry if we gave him a short deal.

 

I'd love to get to the point where we don't bring up one of our yutes until he's already performed at a level in the AHL (or high level foreign men's league) that basically demands an NHL look.  While we've got some nice defensive prospects, I'm not aware of any of them playing up to that standard.  So I"m not at all against bringing back Hainsey, especially if it's to play on the 3rd line or even for depth. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...