Trade rumors and talk

[OBXer]

NHL.com published a Trade Deadline primer for Metropolitan Division by Tom Gulitti

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But Francis has made it clear he has plenty of salary-cap space and young depth and is willing to listen to offers for players who can help the Hurricanes now and long term.

 

Like all trade stories and evaluations I think you have to apply a reasonable amount of skepticism when reading but this is a fairly straight forward assessment of teams including what they did last season. 

[remkin]

I was about to post the idea that clearly a rental type trade just to get in this year, makes no sense unless it has a minor cost. The entire idea of a big trade now is to add a piece that helps moving forward as well. Duchene would do that. Right now I'm guessing the reason he hasn't done it is more about cost.

[coastal_caniac]

It's pretty obvious the Duchene to Carolina speculation is all but dead.

[MinJaBen]

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Projected cap space at deadline: $70.2 million

 

We could trade for an entire NHL team at the deadline. That would help...

[super_dave_1]

1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Hainsey. He has had a good year and is great on the PK. Some team would snap him up for a third at the deadline...maybe a second. If we are waffling about our chances, send him to a legitimate contender so he finally gets the chance and we don't waste the resource. Then call up Fleury and see what we've got. Our rebuild is not so fool-proof yet that we can waste a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a maybe. 

 

Yeah, I'm with you on Hainsey being the one guy, but on the outside looking in, he sure seems to be the leader in the locker room.  They'd have to be out for real.

[MinJaBen]

2 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

 

Yeah, I'm with you on Hainsey being the one guy, but on the outside looking in, he sure seems to be the leader in the locker room.  They'd have to be out for real.

 

He's probably a bigger loss in the room than on the ice, but I'm not sure we wouldn't trade him if we were on the fence. The team seemed to do fine when Eric left last year, so I think they'd be ok.

[super_dave_1]

On Hainsey, he currently holds the active record for most regular season games played without a playoff appearance.  Would they do him a "solid" and flip him to a solid Cup contender, even if they were just on the outside looking in?

Edited February 7, 2017 by super_dave_1

[MinJaBen]

6 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

On Hainsey, he currently holds the active record for most regular season games played without a playoff appearance.  Would they do him a "solid" and flip him to a solid Cup contender, even if they were just on the outside looking in?

 

I think they do...especially as it fits Francis' asset management strategy and given Hainsey's age and our defensive depth.

[LakeLivin]

35 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

On Hainsey, he currently holds the active record for most regular season games played without a playoff appearance.  Would they do him a "solid" and flip him to a solid Cup contender, even if they were just on the outside looking in?

Here's my take:

Last year's team wasn't quite close enough to realistically chase a playoff spot.  That's from both a points perspective as well as the eye test. And still, a portion of the team felt that RF gave up on them.  

 

The eye test for this year's team is very different.  As long as this team is within realistic striking distance, I don't see how RF can afford to be a seller given that it would implicitly send the message to a very young team that he's giving up on them.  I don't see him doing that, not for what we're likely to get as sellers at this point.  I think he let's them take a shot at it.

 

Now if Ward breaks down, all bets are off . . .

 

edit: and think about how most fans would interpret RF selling if we're close. Given the Canes current position with it's fan base, that might be a bigger issue than how the players would feel.  The more I think about it, the more I don't see selling if we're still close as much of an option for the franchise.

Edited February 7, 2017 by LakeLivin

[legend-1]

If we're within 4 points of a wild card at the deadline I don't see Hainsey going anywhere. Not even sure Hainsey would want to go to be honest while that close, he seems like a loyal competitor.  Else I see RF doing a good soldier a favor like the Hurricanes have always done. 

[super_dave_1]

4 minutes ago, legend-1 said:

If we're within 4 points of a wild card at the deadline I don't see Hainsey going anywhere. Not even sure Hainsey would want to go to be honest while that close, he seems like a loyal competitor.  Else I see RF doing a good soldier a favor like the Hurricanes have always done. 

 

We see this one pretty much the same. 

[remkin]

I think the Canes would have to collapse for Francis to sell Hainsey. He is a true professional veteran for one thing. Even though he's slow and doesn't put up a lot of points and has a low end plus minus, he is a key component to the D.

 

Last year's team WAS out of it by the deadline. The NHL's scoring system allows teams to appear to be in it, when they aren't. That was the case last year.

 

This year's team is one point out (adjusted) for crying out loud. Also the schedule in front of us is advantageous, and the mini collapse seems to be over.

 

Finally, the thing that got Jordan Staal a bit miffed last year was not just the trading of his brother, but the fact that Francis tossed it in on that year's team. It was absolutely the right thing to do, but Jordan asked Francis if he saw us doing that again this year, and Francis told him no. So it would take a huge collapse for Francis to move a key piece out unless a key piece came back. Well Hainsey is a key piece, and would not bring a key piece back.

 

I'd go even further than 4 points. I'd say 6-8 points (yes, adjusted for game in hand). Less than that: no go on a rental trade out like Hainsey.

Edited February 7, 2017 by remkin

[top-shelf-1]

1 hour ago, remkin said:

a rental type trade just to get in this year, makes no sense unless it has a minor cost.

That's the beauty of FA rentals; they all have a low cost. You only pay them for the remainder of the year.

[remkin]

9 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

That's the beauty of FA rentals; they all have a low cost. You only pay them for the remainder of the year.

I mean a loss cost. The cost of losing the guy to the team. My bad phrasing. A player whose loss would not cost the team much, either because it's a minor player, or a different trade brought back a replacement for that guy. That is not Hainsey.

[coastal_caniac]

I don't see Hainsey going anywhere either, particularly if we are only 4 points out, and I'm ignoring any games in hand because it should be obvious you can't project wins (see 5-game losing streak).

Edited February 7, 2017 by coastal_caniac

[MinJaBen]

12 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

I don't see Hainsey going anywhere either, particularly if we are only 4 points out, and I'm ignoring any games in hand because it should be obvious you can't project wins (see 5-game losing streak).

 

If you don't count games in hand, it is very likely we will be much farther out at the deadline due to already having some and then getting our bye week next week. We may have 5 or more GIH by the deadline.

[LakeLivin]

If you don't account for games in hand you're basically projecting them all as losses.  Which, when looking forward, makes no more sense than counting them all as wins . . . 

Edited February 7, 2017 by LakeLivin

[coastal_caniac]

The standings indicate that you get 0 points for games in hand.  The standings are obviously wrong.

[MinJaBen]

10 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

The standings indicate that you get 0 points for games in hand.  The standings are obviously wrong.

 

They are fictional points, I agree. But in Francis' position at the deadline, he has to consider them when planning if he is going to be a buyer or seller. Otherwise, there is almost no way we get back to "within four points of a wildcard spot" by the deadline given that we are there now and will play a lot less games over the remainder of the month compared to our competition.

[LakeLivin]

32 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

The standings indicate that you get 0 points for games in hand.  The standings are obviously wrong.

 

They're at the very least flawed (i.e., potentially very misleading) if not outright wrong.  I'm pretty sure that if due to some tragedy the season had to end with teams playing an unbalanced number of games, positions would be determined by points% rather than total points.

 

Look at it this way: before last nights game Boston had 1 more point than Toronto but the Leafs had 5 games in hand.  If that was the situation at the end of the season, and Boston was done but the Leafs had 5 to play, and one or the other gets the last playoff spot, which position would you rather be in? 

 

Things would be a lot clearer if hockey used a similar convention to baseball where they list the number of games a team is behind the leaders.  I guess they don't because it's a bit more complicated given the convoluted NHL points system. \

 

edit: actually, Hagmetrics provides a simple to calculate approximation that is similar to what baseball does with their standings.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by LakeLivin

[canes2017]

as projections well projections.. to be realistic "project" with current winning %.. so in canes case if 4 games in hand= 4 pts( a little over 50% win percentage)

Edited February 7, 2017 by canes2017

[coastal_caniac]

You guys can project phantom points till the sun goes down, I'm not here to stop you. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by coastal_caniac

[bluedevilcane]

Have not read the game day thread, but does anyone think rolling Eddie out tonight was an audition for backing up Cam when games back up afte the 5 day break? Right now, 4 goals on 20 shots is not looking great. Of course it would help if the team scored a goal. As things stand, winning the #8 WC gets us a series against ..... the Caps, who have been pounding us. But I'm wondering if more than Duchene, RF might see a need to try to pick up a more reliable 2nd goalie before the deadline. Not sure who might be available or at what cost, but after Saturday, we can't expect to play Cam every game.

[surfzone365]

4 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

Have not read the game day thread, but does anyone think rolling Eddie out tonight was an audition for backing up Cam when games back up afte the 5 day break? Right now, 4 goals on 20 shots is not looking great. Of course it would help if the team scored a goal. As things stand, winning the #8 WC gets us a series against ..... the Caps, who have been pounding us. But I'm wondering if more than Duchene, RF might see a need to try to pick up a more reliable 2nd goalie before the deadline. Not sure who might be available or at what cost, but after Saturday, we can't expect to play Cam every game.

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Eddie is in the storefront display window in many facets. He was thrown into the fire tonight. Facing the Caps on your first night back is one hell of a task.

Edited February 8, 2017 by surfzone365

[bluedevil58]

a 2m+/year he should have been up to the task.  What a bust of a signing.