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Trade rumors and talk

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4 minutes ago, surfzone365 said:

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Eddie is in the storefront display window in many facets. He was thrown into the fire tonight. Facing the Caps on your first night back is one hell of a task.

 

 

Especially when the 18 guys in front of you lay an egg.

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2 minutes ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

Especially when the 18 guys in front of you lay an egg.

You're spot on. Keeping that hard round black object out of our net is indeed a team effort. We've done it so well in any games. Tonight not one of them against a deadly opponent 

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1 minute ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

:shakeshead:  Yeah, i can explain it to you like a100 times but I can't make you understand.  Your making progress.

 

Coastal, it's pretty clear by now that you're not going to explain anything statistical to me, lol.  You've essentially expressed the viewpoint that counting all games in hand as losses is the best way to gauge where a team stands.  I've got an MS in Statistics, and I can assure you that's not the case.      

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8 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

edit: actually, Hagmetrics provides a simple to calculate approximation that is similar to what baseball does with their standings.

 

Most folks change their tune when they understand the difference between projecting points and evening out games in hand. 

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1 minute ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Most folks change their tune when they understand the difference between projecting points and evening out games in hand. 

 

Well, maybe I'm just not understanding you.  How do you even out games in hand?

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To me the biggest drawback in how most people view games in hand is that they forget about the games in hand other teams have that are competing for the same last playoff spot.  Looking at the Canes in a vacuum is one thing, but looking at the big picture and factoring in the other teams' projected games in hand points is two different things.

 

I tend to be in coastal's camp of not counting my chickens before they hatch.  GIH is something to consider, but no matter how you slice it, they are potential points, no more.

 

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3 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

To me the biggest drawback in how most people view games in hand is that they forget about the games in hand other teams have that are competing for the same last playoff spot.  Looking at the Canes in a vacuum is one thing, but looking at the big picture and factoring in the other teams' projected games in hand points is two different things.

 

I tend to be in coastal's camp of not counting my chickens before they hatch.  GIH is something to consider, but no matter how you slice it, they are potential points, no more.

 

 

There's no sure-fire way to take those games into account because they aren't points until they're earned.  That said, potential points are better than having already played the games and lost.  You're right - if you're going to take into account the games the Hurricanes have over the teams above them, you also have to take into account the gaes the teams below them have as well.  The answer of course is just win the damned games and the rest doesn't matter.  Hopefully that starts in Dallas.

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I think this whole "games in hand" discussion started about how many points out of a playoff spot at the deadline Ron Francis will decide is close enough to go for it or too far out and time to sell off. Thus, with the bye week and other teams still playing, he has to make some accommodation for the differences in games played between us and the other teams. Otherwise, we will look artificially far behind the other teams.

 

Glad I don't have to make that call.

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Here's why I don't get all tied up with games in hand.  Currently the Canes are 4 pts out of the last wild card spot, with 2 games in hand on Philly.  Using the accepted "adjusted" method, the Canes are theoretically only 2 pts out.  Look at the big picture though with all the competing teams and their "adjusted" positioning to Boston's 55 games played.

 

Capture.PNG.0073686e6ff8b80f812a624186082d72.PNG

So the optics go from being a GIH adjusted 2 pts behind Philly to being the same 2 pts back, but still with a lot of teams to crawl over to get to the desired spot.  When you look at everybody, there are still 4 spots to leapfrog.

 

Yes, GIH are better than losses, but don't view it in a vacuum.

Edited by super_dave_1

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More of the same Legend.  While our young talent shows promise this team still has a ways to go.  With who we have in our conference, being a small budget team really screws us over.

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7 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I saw a tweet that we were scouting the AVs in Montreal last night.  Just saying......

 

Exactly OBXer, let's pull away from this "games in hand" discussion, because it really gets back to the philosophical thought centered on a glass of water, and whether you see that glass as "half full or half empty". IMHO, we're not changing anyone's mind about this, no matter how we "credential" our knowledge?

 

As an aside, the thought came to me that the "1st goal contest" is really missing one category which keeps popping up, that of No Goal Scorer, haha.

 

Now, back to your corners, and come out swinging again!! Wish we could discuss the essence of this thread, Trade Rumors?

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2 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

I think this whole "games in hand" discussion started about how many points out of a playoff spot at the deadline Ron Francis will decide is close enough to go for it or too far out and time to sell off. Thus, with the bye week and other teams still playing, he has to make some accommodation for the differences in games played between us and the other teams. Otherwise, we will look artificially far behind the other teams.

 

Glad I don't have to make that call.

 

This.

 

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Did the Washington game and perhaps the "0 fer" run previous show that cup contenders have high end offense? Do we have enough of it? Do we think Roy and Gauthier or someone else in the wings will be enough combined with guys improving? Or do we need to find another proven, high end forward?

 

I still think we need to find a high end forward.

 

I'm not saying that adding Matt Duchene wins that game last night. But it might get us the #8 slot. But more importantly as our cu8rrent young guys find their games (Rask, Aho, Lindy) and new guys get started (Guathier, Roy, etc), having that one more high end piece will gel lines and increase skill into all 9 top slots.

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Thought just hit me guys. Reading over on CanesCountry with some thoughts on lesser known trade targets, and relating it to our discussion here centering on GIH, I wonder, in as much as there is really no formula to accurately predict where we"ll stand at the Trade Deadline relative to our chance at making the playoffs this year(amply demonstrated by our at times active discussions), would it not be prudent on RF's part to completely ignore the question we fans have fixated on(me amongst you), of "will we or won't we be in", in favor of just making our team better? Approaching the question of trades, he then could say, "forget about the mounting pressure of making playoffs this year, and all the unknown of standings at trade deadline, lets just go after a player or players who we see as improving our team for the long haul, and let the chips of this year be decided by the hockey gods"?  This is all IMHO of course.

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48 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Exactly OBXer, let's pull away from this "games in hand" discussion, because it really gets back to the philosophical thought centered on a glass of water, and whether you see that glass as "half full or half empty". IMHO, we're not changing anyone's mind about this, no matter how we "credential" our knowledge?

 

As an aside, the thought came to me that the "1st goal contest" is really missing one category which keeps popping up, that of No Goal Scorer, haha.

 

Now, back to your corners, and come out swinging again!! Wish we could discuss the essence of this thread, Trade Rumors?

 

 

This.  I didn't even realize until after i sent my last post that i was talking about games in hand in the trade talk thread.  I should probably be banned or something...

 

As far as trades, it's fun for some of us to speculate and ramble on about what we think would help this team (i speak of myself here - any similarities to any other person living or dead is purely a coincidence...), but the bottom line is that i don't think any of us expect RF to do anything that strays from the plan; not this year.  If he sees Duchene/etc as an upgrade for the future, it can happen.  But i don't see him giving up serious future value for short-term benefit.

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realm, I hope you didn't take my rant as a criticism of you or anyone, because that certainly wasn't my intent. It just seemed to me, at the point of the discussion, that we were looking at a Gordian knot type of problem, where really there is no good answer. Thus my 2nd observation, essentially to take GIH out of the equation, and focus on things that RF can control.

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16 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Thought just hit me guys. Reading over on CanesCountry with some thoughts on lesser known trade targets, and relating it to our discussion here centering on GIH, I wonder, in as much as there is really no formula to accurately predict where we"ll stand at the Trade Deadline relative to our chance at making the playoffs this year(amply demonstrated by our at times active discussions), would it not be prudent on RF's part to completely ignore the question we fans have fixated on(me amongst you), of "will we or won't we be in", in favor of just making our team better? Approaching the question of trades, he then could say, "forget about the mounting pressure of making playoffs this year, and all the unknown of standings at trade deadline, lets just go after a player or players who we see as improving our team for the long haul, and let the chips of this year be decided by the hockey gods"?  This is all IMHO of course.

 

I think this was always going to apply to the way Ron approached adding to the team. There is almost no conceivable way I could see him buying rentals for a push "this year." However, this can't be applied to asset management when looking to get value for UFAs like Hainsey or Stalberg unless they are the pieces going the other way in a trade for a piece you want. One example trade that might fit that bill would be if the Pens needed a defender, then maybe a Hainsey plus a 3rd for MAF would allow us to utilize a UFA contract while bring back a player that is not a future but a here and now player that helps us make a push to the playoffs.

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14 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Coastal, it's pretty clear by now that you're not going to explain anything statistical to me, lol.  You've essentially expressed the viewpoint that counting all games in hand as losses is the best way to gauge where a team stands.  I've got an MS in Statistics, and I can assure you that's not the case.      

 

I've also got an M.S. but I don't go throwing that around on an interweb message board.  So, mister statistical wizard, how do you get points for games you have never played?  How were GIH factored into last night's drubbing, or during the 5-game losing streak?

 

As far as the thread topic, I find it hard to imagine that GMRF is going to be a seller, however you factor in GIH.  That ruffled feathers in the locker room last year and I can only imagine what would transpire if the team was a true seller at the deadline with so many teams still right in the thick of the race.

 

However, as MinjaBen stated, it will be interesting if the team uses UFA's to buy pieces we want.  Interesting times.

 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Is GIH the new size debate? Should we open up a new thread for it? Seems like everyone has put their positions out there. And we are probably mostly going round and round at this point. I will go on record as not having an advanced math degree, as as such am apparently woefully unqualified (as usual) to keep discussing.

 

But I do think if this keeps going we may need to open a new thread for it. Let's try to keep this one on trade proposals. (Myself included).

 

I do agree that GMRF will only make a deal that helps long term. I don't really feel any dissent about that though.

Edited by remkin

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^This is funny considering you were the one that got it started. :lol:  You know you did.

 

I'll put back up this for consideration from my last post to get back on track:

 

As far as the thread topic, I find it hard to imagine that GMRF is going to be a seller.  That ruffled feathers in the locker room last year and I can only imagine what would transpire if the team was a true seller at the deadline with so many teams still right in the thick of the race.  I don't expect the Canes are going to drop off a cliff between now and March 1.

 

However, as MinjaBen stated, it will be interesting if the team uses UFA's to buy pieces we want.  Interesting times.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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The way I tend to look at it, I don't focus on the current standings for any team other than my own.

 

How do we get to 94 points... that's the question.  Watching all the other teams and being a point behind this one and 3 points behind that one are all snapshot in time views.  The reality is that none of the teams outside of the top 7 in the east are on pace to get 94 points.  And yet, someone will probably get there.  The current hot team is likely not the hot team later.  Maybe a team like Toronto or even the Rangers could streak negatively and open another slot.  There is a reason I pick 94, it is a historic statistical probability that it is enough to get the 8 slot. 

 

Focus on your own team, and let the other teams do what they will.  If you happen to luck in with 92 points, or get hosed with 97 points, so be it.  If you like a number other than 94 make it whatever number you like.   How are the Canes going to get to your number, and are they going to have a realistic shot at it when GMRF looks at the team's record at trade deadline time.  I agree, I don't want that job, but I will opine at that point anyway.  

 

I can be wrong.  For my work, I expect nothing.  And every year, I receive it in abundance.

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