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Trade rumors and talk

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^This is funny considering you were the one that got it started. :lol:  You know you did.

 

 

True. I've mostly tried to stay out of it recently though. (Though do think that the trade deadline issue maybe is relevant). But if we leave it alone that includes me.

Edited by remkin

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1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

As far as the thread topic, I find it hard to imagine that GMRF is going to be a seller.  That ruffled feathers in the locker room last year and I can only imagine what would transpire if the team was a true seller at the deadline with so many teams still right in the thick of the race.  I don't expect the Canes are going to drop off a cliff between now and March 1

 

I agree with this too.  I think RF had some work to do (especially with JStaal) after throwing in the proverbial towel.  He had some nice pieces to work with though then, and I'm firmly behind what he did.  I'm not so sure that the possible return on 4th liners and a journeyman defenseman would be worth the heartburn this year unless the team drops every game between now and March.

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That's something we agree on. Francis either stands pat or picks up something at the deadline. No net rentals out. The only exception would be big collapse and out of it by the deadline. 

Edited by remkin

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RF doesn't strike me as a GM who is going to worry too much about what his players think about his trade tactics. If RF thinks a trade will make the team better long term he will pull the trigger. He will address any unhappiness later. 

 

I'm sure he will give this team a reasonable chance to make the playoffs this season but that doesn't mean he has to stand pat.

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I just don't think he trades a rental out, or a rental in. There have been a few trade proposals that send Hainsey out for instance, That might bring back a second round pick or a third line forward. Don't see it. Also don't see us giving much up to get a guy for just the playoff run.

 

But either way, if he can add a guy who would be here for a few years, yes. 

 

He did tell Jordan he didn't see trading vets for picks at the deadline again (like he did last year) if the team was still in it. I don't think he'd go back on that. 

 

But adding a piece that can help moving forward, yes.

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3 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Thought just hit me guys. Reading over on CanesCountry with some thoughts on lesser known trade targets, and relating it to our discussion here centering on GIH, I wonder, in as much as there is really no formula to accurately predict where we"ll stand at the Trade Deadline relative to our chance at making the playoffs this year(amply demonstrated by our at times active discussions), would it not be prudent on RF's part to completely ignore the question we fans have fixated on(me amongst you), of "will we or won't we be in", in favor of just making our team better? Approaching the question of trades, he then could say, "forget about the mounting pressure of making playoffs this year, and all the unknown of standings at trade deadline, lets just go after a player or players who we see as improving our team for the long haul, and let the chips of this year be decided by the hockey gods"?  This is all IMHO of course.

 

Saw that article too Kjun. Main targets: Duclair from Arizona (good first year last year, bad this year, small skilled), Bozak (third line upside), and Tatar (good upside, but small and numbers trailing off). I don't argue that small ball moves like these are Francis-like to this point, but it all depends on the price. The author includes Fleury in both Duclair and Tatar, which makes no sense to me, and Hainsey for Bozak, which would make sense maybe if we are completely out of it, but really doesn't make sense to me. For the right price (low),  taking a shot at Duclair, or Tatar could be a risk/benefit play, but I'm just not really feeling those.

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On 2/8/2017 at 0:24 PM, coastal_caniac said:

 

I've also got an M.S. but I don't go throwing that around on an interweb message board.  So, mister statistical wizard, how do you get points for games you have never played?  How were GIH factored into last night's drubbing, or during the 5-game losing streak?

 

Nor do I.  The exception is if someone makes a snide remark about explaining a statistical issue to me but not being able to understand it for me.  Sorry, sometimes when I get poked I poke back. :poke:  

 

Caution: Ignore the stuff below if you're tired of the GIH issue!  I'm only posting it because I'm taking coastal's question as a serious one.  And coastal, my explanation is directed at anyone here that's interested, so if I go into some detail that seems obvious or condescending, it's not aimed at you. 

 

As most note, there isn't a perfect way to account for GIH going forward.  You're definitely correct on that front.

 

Let's start with what you can objectively determine, which is how well each team has performed (as defined by the NHL points system) in games actually played to date as compared to how other teams have performed in their games actually played to date, even if they've played a different number of games.  And that's by looking at the percentage of points they actually won out of all points they could have possibly won.  Last year the AHL used an unbalanced schedule due to the relocation of several teams out west (some teams played as many as 76 games, others as few as 68).  Because of that imbalance, playoff spots were determined by Points% rather than actual Points.  Mathematically, Points% can alternatively be expressed as Average Points Won/Game for each team.  E.g., a team that has racked up 60 points in 40 games has won 75% of their max points possible.  This could also be expressed as the team winning, on average, 1.5 points per game played.  No difference in how those two stats would rank teams in the league as they're both calculated taking into account the number of points won as well as the number of games played.       

 

While Points% (or Average Points Won/Game) does give an accurate comparison of how teams have performed to date, as you and others have noted, it doesn't necessarily predict how teams will do in the outstanding games they've yet to play.  Obviously, this ranges from 0 points (all losses) to twice the number of outstanding games (all wins).  Statistically, a simple objective way to project how teams will do in those outstanding games is to base it on how they've done in the games they've actually played so far. To do that you just multiply a team's Average Points Won/Game times the relevant number of games in hand.  In my above example, if you were looking at a team that was winning at a rate of 1.5 ppg, and that team had 4 games in hand over the team you were comparing them with, you'd project them as winning 6 points over those 4 games.  Now that is only a projection, and it comes with all of the caveats associated with such.  Obviously the team could earn anywhere from 0 to 8 points in those four games and you won't know how many they actually get until they play the games.  You can think of that 6 point projection as a "best guess", but at least the "guess" is based on something objective, which is how the team has actually performed up until that point.

 

Even though what I've outlined above is objective, the whole issue is more complicated when you're looking at projecting GIH in a real life situation.  You're using a team's actual average results so far to make a projection, but that doesn't take into account how the team is currently playing, key injuries, personnel changes, or who they're playing to make up those GIH.  All of those things would effect how you'd project the team performing, and I'm sure some of those sites that project playoff chances use complicated algorithms that take a lot of that into account.  

 

Now coastal, I'm guessing that a lot of the variables I listed above contribute to your concern with making any projection for GIH.  And I agree that they make projections less precise.  But we know that a team will earn somewhere between 0 points and 2 x GIH.  You're right, you can't count on anything that's not yet earned. But if you need to make decisions going forward, like RF will at the trade deadline, he's better off making an educated guess than just ignoring GIH completely because what that does is essentially count all GIH as losses.  I'm sure that when RF gets to the point that he needs to make roster decisions, he'll take my simplistic science way past the point to where it becomes an art, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

 

Couple more points for the two members still reading at this point, lol:

  • S_D is absolutely right in that if you adjust for GIH you need to do it for every team in contention, not just yours and the team you're chasing.
  • Teams contending for the Wild Card spots are all winning at just over a point per game average (Flyers 1.02ppg, Bruins 1.05ppg, Canes 1.06ppg, Isles 1.08ppg), Which is why remkin's "one point for each GIH" adjustment comes close to what you'd get using actual ppg averages. 
  • The fact that they're all right around 1 is why you can even simplify things more and just look at the hagmetric stats to get a pretty good idea of where teams stand in comparison to one another.  Hagmetrics ignores 1 point "loser points", which is about what you'd be adding to make up any GIH. 

 

Ok, sorry about that, way more than I wanted to write. Unless there's something specifically directed at me, I'm done with the topic.

 

EDIT: sorry, started this post, left in the middle, then came back and finished it before reading the request(s) to drop the subject.  But I doubt many will bother to read it anyways, so hopefully no harm no foul.:P

Edited by LakeLivin

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5 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

Small-ball moves will further the rebuild, not accelerate it.

Hopefully RF never stops the small ball moves, even if he throws in some major ones at some point.  I see the small ball moves as

  • a form of "attention to detail" commensurate with a perennial contender
  • necessary for a small market team like the Canes 

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17 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

 

Ok, sorry about that, way more than I wanted to write. Unless there's something specifically directed at me, I'm done with the topic.

 

EDIT: sorry, started this post, left in the middle, then came back and finished it before reading the request(s) to drop the subject.  

 

I think we can now safely say we've all put our best points out there. Let the reader decide which makes the most sense, and lets keep this to trade talk from here on. 

 

If anyone really really wants to keep rehashing this, please start a new thread.

 

 

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I don't think we should trade until or unless several guys start producing, and fast.  I doubt anyone is confused, but if so look at player stats for last 10 games.  That folks won't get it done this year.

 

Perhaps reunite Aho with TT and Rask.  Put McGinn back with Staal where he seemed to find the net.  Have another talk with Skinner and tell him its ok to touch another human.  In short, use the lineup from 10 or 11 games ago.

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On 2/7/2017 at 1:01 PM, remkin said:

I mean a loss cost.

Been out among 'em all day so just getting back. I was referring to the cost of an FA coming here; OUR cost for that player. A very cheap way to add talent that might put us over the hump. I think picking one up over the bye week is a real possibility. I also think getting either of Duchene or Landeskog is not.

 

As for the rest of the conversation I missed today (the great GIH debate)--I'm pretty okay with missing it! :lol:

 

Have a good night, all.

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We were figuring out how to make zero 5 so you didn't miss anything.  Yes folks, that's sarchasm.

 

I have no idea what GMRF is going to pull off at the deadline but I'm damn excited to find out.

 

During the JR small-ball years, I said the same thing, only to yell F'ing Corvo, or F'ing Fat Kaberle, or F'ing Anthony Stewart.....

 

I hope this season is different.  No more small-ball.

 

 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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17-6-1 at home, about as good as anyone.. 7-15-6 on the road, about as poor as anyone.. Im wondering what kind of small ball move is going to solve this equation..

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8 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

I hope this season is different.  No more small-ball.

The only wild card is the ex draft. I'd love to see a blockbuster that gets us the missing pieces we need long-term, but I just don't see it until summer, after those chips fall. Of course, if we decide that certain guys are not part of the core and want to get the new blood a jump on next season, who knows?

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1 hour ago, PamlicoPuck said:

17-6-1 at home, about as good as anyone.. 7-15-6 on the road, about as poor as anyone.. Im wondering what kind of small ball move is going to solve this equation..

 

Hypnotize the players into thinking the Canes are always the home team.

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4 hours ago, winger52 said:

 

Hypnotize the players into thinking the Canes are always the home team.

Either that,or rearrange PNC with each game, and bring all players in on a bus?

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I gotta think Sakic is going to wait for the trade deadline at least. He's gotta think he has a price now, which is way over-payment. If he doesn't get that, he's going to wait and see if a couple of desperate teams get bidding near the deadline. So far nobody has bit on way overpay.

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10 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

The only wild card is the ex draft. I'd love to see a blockbuster that gets us the missing pieces we need long-term, but I just don't see it until summer, after those chips fall. Of course, if we decide that certain guys are not part of the core and want to get the new blood a jump on next season, who knows?

 

And that is a big wildcard IMO.  Because of exemptions for 1st and 2nd year players, and other contract status concerns, we only have 6 skaters to protect (J, Staal, Skinner, Lindholm, Rask, Teravainen, Faulk) and we can protect up to 8.  There are some teams that cannot protect everyone and will have to expose a player they don't want to lose.  Don't be surprised if at least one of these deals is made around the league as teams don't want to lose players for no return.  We are in PRIME position to take advantage of this, with our available slots and ability to take on salary.

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14 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

We are in PRIME position to take advantage of this, with our available slots and ability to take on salary.

 

Agree and when we take on that player we can expose to the draft we should get some assets we can bank

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