Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
OBXer

Trade rumors and talk

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

It's a useless endeavor here.  I gave up a long time ago.  This is about the only site I've visited where people put so much faith in that stat.

 

And in the words of Forrest Gump...."that's all i have to say about that"

With all due respect boys, I've been one of those who urges taking +/- with a very big grain of salt--but even when you do that in Justin's case, a guy whose minus is half again higher than that of even his D partner, it's gotta be a big red flag to a guy who is saying "I'm looking for a defensive defenseman." So in my defense, I'm applying it very narrowly, in relation to one specific comment. Do either of you, CC or PK, seriously think Sakic isn't looking first at +/- to help determine, just initially, who meets his "defensive defenseman" standard?

 

Of course this stat must be looked at in a broader context, but I think doing that in Justin's case only fuels the point of some of us here: in relation to his teammates, this year in particular, Justin's is high, and it was last year, too. So in terms of what Sakic is looking for, Justin's number probably disqualifies him. It doesn't make him a bad guy or a worthless player--indeed, I am worried about short-term impacts if he is dealt. My point is that I don't think it happens, at least not in a deal with the Avs, because he is not the type of Dman Sakic is looking for. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

With all due respect boys, I've been one of those who urges taking +/- with a very big grain of salt--but even when you do that in Justin's case, a guy whose minus is half again higher than that of even his D partner, it's gotta be a big red flag to a guy who is saying "I'm looking for a defensive defenseman." So in my defense, I'm applying it very narrowly, in relation to one specific comment. Do either of you, CC or PK, seriously think Sakic isn't looking first at +/- to help determine, just initially, who meets his "defensive defenseman" standard?

 

Of course this stat must be looked at in a broader context, but I think doing that in Justin's case only fuels the point of some of us here: in relation to his teammates, this year in particular, Justin's is high, and it was last year, too. So in terms of what Sakic is looking for, Justin's number probably disqualifies him. It doesn't make him a bad guy or a worthless player--indeed, I am worried about short-term impacts if he is dealt. My point is that I don't think it happens, at least not in a deal with the Avs, because he is not the type of Dman Sakic is looking for. 

 

Top, I have been trying to relay that messages for weeks now.  The Avs' two highest paid dmen are both RHD that they aren't really looking to move at this point.  They also already have a version of Faulk in Barrie.  And while I'm of the opinion that Faulk isn't nearly as bad defensively as the boards make it out to be, I will fully admit that he should not be classified as a defensive defenseman.  I think GM's look at traits of the players, as well as offensive output, and less on +/-.  Take Eric Staal.  He was a career -58 for Carolina, but now suddenly is a +7 for his new team.  Other GM's know the type of team we are when dealing with us, and know that a huge minus stat won't affect their desire to acquire our players.  If rumors are true, they're willing to give up their best player for Noah Hanifin and parts, which he's already a -30, and doesn't have that many points to negate that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

If rumors are true, they're willing to give up their best player for Noah Hanifin and parts, which he's already a -30, and doesn't have that many points to negate that.

 

Doesn't his points already get factored INTO that? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eberle is an interesting option, in that his offensive numbers are really pretty good (not dissimilar from Duchene, and his contract is basically the same in term and amount as Duchene). If tons of rumors are the smoke/fire analogy, then the Oilers have been shopping Eberle for years. Let me put this right up top. He's interesting only because he could be a value. Maybe we don't give up a prime guy, or maybe we get something more back than just him.

 

First, Eberle and Duchene are both offense-first smaller guys. Obviously not the scoring bruising winger or big center that we'd prefer. Still, Eberle has averaged .76 ppg for his career. If you adjust the lockout year to a full season, he had a run of 76, 65, 63, 65 points. That's serious production. I now realize that I'm damned if I bring up his +/- but also if I don't. But for me, +/-, while a bad stat, has value if a guy is an outlier on his team over time. Over the last 5 years, Eberele has been low average. 3/5 years he's been mid pack (including this year) and 2/5 years he was around 8th from last. Given all the points he scores, he is not a defensive standout for sure. Duchene is more up and down the pack from year to year, he's been at the top of the list 2/5 years, and about 4th from last 3/5 years. I can't make as much out of Duchene since he's been so up and down. The bad is that he's been about #5 from last the last two years. OK, it's not nearly a precise stat, but the foggy picture is that both guys are offense first in general, though Duchene has it in him to be better defensively.

 

The thing about Eberle is that the last two years, his points are down. He's put up 47 points last year (58 games, 56 points for full season), and is on pace for 48 this year. Assuming that the Oilers want to move on at least in part because:

 

1. As an offense-first player he needs to put up more points.

2. As a $6 million/year offense first player, he needs to put up more points.

3. They have tons of big talent that will need to be paid and they don't want his $6 million/year salary around.

4. They have an embarrassment of riches in young forwards, and they don't need him (and his salary) moving forward.

5. He's been a part of a lot of losing.

6. Whatever else.....

 

So, for those reasons, and that he's declining and he's been on the market a long time with no takers, maybe he can be had for a value. To me Eberle is less desirable than Duchene or Landeskog, but what if he cost a lot less (in terms of return to them on a trade). To be honest, I don't know what would work for us though. I really don't want to trade a grade A defensive prospect: read: Hanifin, Bean or Fleury, and really McKeown either since we need RHD. I would not trade Gauthier. I guess for me, if we took Eberle and his salary/production for say Faulk, then we better get more back our way. I don't want RNH, so not sure what or who, but something.

 

The Oilers are in the playoffs baring a major collapse, so they might want a piece for now. It also means they are less desperate to trade, since they don't need a run this year. BUT they are also still stocked with young forwards. I don't know outside of Puljarvi, who they wouldn't throw into this deal, what other prospects they have. Their draft pick is likely to be around #23-25, generally a less than 50-50 proposition, especially in a weak draft year (although we've been on fire picking late first - second round lately).

 

So, I don't know what the deal would be, but I'd have to thing it would be Faulk for Eberle-plus. And the plus could be the interesting part. All pure speculation.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

Top, I have been trying to relay that messages for weeks now.  The Avs' two highest paid dmen are both RHD that they aren't really looking to move at this point.  They also already have a version of Faulk in Barrie.  And while I'm of the opinion that Faulk isn't nearly as bad defensively as the boards make it out to be, I will fully admit that he should not be classified as a defensive defenseman.  I think GM's look at traits of the players, as well as offensive output, and less on +/-.  Take Eric Staal.  He was a career -58 for Carolina, but now suddenly is a +7 for his new team.  Other GM's know the type of team we are when dealing with us, and know that a huge minus stat won't affect their desire to acquire our players.  If rumors are true, they're willing to give up their best player for Noah Hanifin and parts, which he's already a -30, and doesn't have that many points to negate that.

Okay, so we're saying the same thing on that score, pretty much (I'll just note that there have been some reports that they want Barrie out because of his lax D, which only further strengthens the notion that they wouldn't want Faulk). But now that we're in sync on that aspect of it, let's go for the Daily Double, i.e., why Landeskog is the faaaaar better option for us than Duchene:

 

The reasons Eric is enjoying a resurgence are many, not least of which is that he has a guy on his left side in Nino Neidereitter who has 89 hits this season--pretty much Gabriel Landeskog to a "T." On top of which, he was recently joined on the right side by Alex Tuch, a 20-year old, 6-4 220 pounder. Again, see hag's prior post: Elite alone is not enough. Without guys moving bodies in all three zones to create space, even the most elite player will only be able to do so much. And if that body-moving guy is borderline elite himself in terms of scoring (which Scog is), so much the better.

 

There is no question that Victor Rask has the tools to be an effective first-line center, but if - as with Eric - we don't give him a winger who hits, it's not gonna happen--for him or anyone else. So in my mind, we can overspend for Duchene - a guy who we may lose in two years and who will suffer from the same lack of physicality which all our centers have suffered from for the past 10 years - or we can bring in Scog, who solves that problem and will open up the ice for our already-signed future #1, Rask. Just looking at the lines for tonight, it's clear BP knows that's what's needed, because he's finally put the closest thing we currently have to a young banger, McGinn, on Rask's right side.

 

You may not agree, and that's fine--but we've got a 10-year data set showing that not having toughness up front to open things up for our elite scorers doesn't work. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, remkin said:

Eberle is an interesting option, in that his offensive numbers are really pretty good (not dissimilar from Duchene, and his contract is basically the same in term and amount as Duchene). If tons of rumors are the smoke/fire analogy, then the Oilers have been shopping Eberle for years. Let me put this right up top. He's interesting only because he could be a value. Maybe we don't give up a prime guy, or maybe we get something more back than just him.

 

First, Eberle and Duchene are both offense-first smaller guys. Obviously not the scoring bruising winger or big center that we'd prefer. Still, Eberle has averaged .76 ppg for his career. If you adjust the lockout year to a full season, he had a run of 76, 65, 63, 65 points. That's serious production. I now realize that I'm damned if I bring up his +/- but also if I don't. But for me, +/-, while a bad stat, has value if a guy is an outlier on his team over time. Over the last 5 years, Eberele has been low average. 3/5 years he's been mid pack (including this year) and 2/5 years he was around 8th from last. Given all the points he scores, he is not a defensive standout for sure. Duchene is more up and down the pack from year to year, he's been at the top of the list 2/5 years, and about 4th from last 3/5 years. I can't make as much out of Duchene since he's been so up and down. The bad is that he's been about #5 from last the last two years. OK, it's not nearly a precise stat, but the foggy picture is that both guys are offense first in general, though Duchene has it in him to be better defensively.

 

The thing about Eberle is that the last two years, his points are down. He's put up 47 points last year (58 games, 56 points for full season), and is on pace for 48 this year. Assuming that the Oilers want to move on at least in part because:

 

1. As an offense-first player he needs to put up more points.

2. As a $6 million/year offense first player, he needs to put up more points.

3. They have tons of big talent that will need to be paid and they don't want his $6 million/year salary around.

4. They have an embarrassment of riches in young forwards, and they don't need him (and his salary) moving forward.

5. He's been a part of a lot of losing.

6. Whatever else.....

 

So, for those reasons, and that he's declining and he's been on the market a long time with no takers, maybe he can be had for a value. To me Eberle is less desirable than Duchene or Landeskog, but what if he cost a lot less (in terms of return to them on a trade). To be honest, I don't know what would work for us though. I really don't want to trade a grade A defensive prospect: read: Hanifin, Bean or Fleury, and really McKeown either since we need RHD. I would not trade Gauthier. I guess for me, if we took Eberle and his salary/production for say Faulk, then we better get more back our way. I don't want RNH, so not sure what or who, but something.

 

The Oilers are in the playoffs baring a major collapse, so they might want a piece for now. It also means they are less desperate to trade, since they don't need a run this year. BUT they are also still stocked with young forwards. I don't know outside of Puljarvi, who they wouldn't throw into this deal, what other prospects they have. Their draft pick is likely to be around #23-25, generally a less than 50-50 proposition, especially in a weak draft year (although we've been on fire picking late first - second round lately).

 

So, I don't know what the deal would be, but I'd have to thing it would be Faulk for Eberle-plus. And the plus could be the interesting part. All pure speculation.

Shorter Rem (for me at least): No thanks on Eberle. Another smallish non-hitting forward. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

7 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Shorter Rem (for me at least): No thanks on Eberle. Another smallish non-hitting forward. 

 

I figured, Top. And I bet you are not alone. My guess is that a poll of "should we get Eberle?" would not go well for the "yes'".

 

I'm all about value though. So to me, if we could get something back with really good potential, or a top prospect and their first rounder....

 

I don't give up a prime prospect for him, and for Eberle that would include a no trade of: Hanifin, Bean, Fleury, Roy, Gauthier, and probably McKeown, unless they sweetened the pot.

 

But in a multi player deal, could we get something really good?

 

Faulk and Roy, and Bean (Fleury) for Eberle and Puljujarvi. Something like that

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, remkin said:

I'm all about value though. So to me, if we could get something back with really good potential, or a top prospect and their first rounder....

I get that POV, but we've amassed so many prospects and picks already. It's time to solve the problems that keep us from winning consistently at the NHL level, and I don't think Eberle addresses them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, remkin said:

Faulk and Roy, and Bean (Fleury) for Eberle and Puljujarvi. Something like that

No way EDM gives up Puljujarvi. A guy can dream, though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

No way EDM gives up Puljujarvi. A guy can dream, though!

 

You are probably right. And no other team would even dream of it (see what I did there?). But Edmonton is so stocked at forward, and Bean and Faulk or Fleury and Faulk is not chopped liver. And I put Roy in there.....

 

I know Puljujarvi may be asking too much, but I don't want RNH, I wonder who else?

 

I know it's all rumor, but if Francis is sniffing around Eberle, I just have to think he has more in mind than just Eberle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, remkin said:

I know it's all rumor, but if Francis is sniffing around Eberle, I just have to think he has more in mind than just Eberle.

 

If we are sniffing around Eberle with any of our current D, the add better be Poolparty or Draisaitl. I'd do Faulk plus a small add for Eberle and Puljujarvi. I'd do Faulk straight up for Draisaitl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The word is Pesce is not feeling well. Maybe nothing to it. The thing is from now through the next 5 games every thing the team does will be magnified. Win, Lose, lineup changes, everything will lead to speculation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, OBXer said:

The word is Pesce is not feeling well. Maybe nothing to it. The thing is from now through the next 5 games every thing the team does will be magnified. Win, Lose, lineup changes, everything will lead to speculation.

Especially the next 24hrs since we are playing Colorado.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Especially the next 24hrs since we are playing Colorado.

 

There is that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Especially the next 24hrs since we are playing Colorado.

 

Could save some airfare if Joe and Ron can get a deal done by the end of the third period. 

 

Better yet, get it done at the second intermission, so both players can be pulled and sent to the other bench for the remainder of the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Odds are, with recent coaching change, and apparent connections between the 2 teams, that Boston and Colorado will be the trading partners. And, as usual, the Canes will be the proverbial "bridesmaid". Can't suck enough or be lucky enough for a high 1st rounder( #1 actually), and not attractive enough to get the attention of a difference maker, on the trade market.

 

While I'm thinking along those lines, does anyone know how many of the 32 teams have NEVER had a #1 pick? I enjoy wallowing in misery about this time of year!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am increasingly of the opinion that Francis should pull the trigger if the Avs have any interest in Faulk, but NOT Hanifin.

 

Why?

 

This season is slipping away. We are on the verge of getting too far out of it. It is vastly unfair to point to one guy, but the glaring weakness on this team is scoring centers. Meanwhile, Faulk continues to play matador defense at key times, but is still putting up points.

 

This is just one guy's opinion, but I am now firmly in the "sell high" camp on Faulk. His shot giveth, but his defense giveth even more...to the wrong team. In the long run I bet this team is more solid with McKeown in the 4 slot anyways. We are going to have to pay Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, etc, we can't also keep paying Faulk too.

 

Top line center, and even near elite forward scoring is becoming an obvious shortcoming of this team. To the notion that we already have too many small snipers? Uh, no. We have one: Jeff Skinner and probably seeing another develop: Sebastian Aho. If by sniper, you mean a guy who has a shot that regularly actually beats the goalie. We have some very nice players, but outside of Skinner and Aho, no one has been anything close to sniping. Lindholm may have it in him as probably does Rask, but they are not even close to consistent with it yet. Lindholm has been outstanding, but he is focusing on playmaking.

 

We do not have enough guys who create offense, and you really need that from at least one center.

 

Are we one center away from cup contention? No.

 

But we need a guy there even if we are still building the rest of the team. And even as dark as it is right now, we could be one top center away from making the playoffs. Both next year, and this year.

 

I don't know what else Sakic is wanting. I don't know if he wants Faulk. But I would pull that trigger if he does and "plus" part is not crazy.

 

 

As to Hanifin. I just think that is trading too much future for a run this year, that is unlikely just based on the number of teams in the hunt. We are just too quick sometimes to give up on young guys, and I still think he's going to be special. (I fully admit I could be wrong, but that's what I think). Maybe if Hanifin for Landeskog happened straight up, but not for Duchene due to his shorter contract.

 

Obviously only Francis knows what's on the table, but if there is anything even resembling a hockey trade that brings Duchene (or Landeskog) here. The time is now. Don't just stand there. Do something.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, remkin said:

As to Hanifin. I just think that is trading too much future for a run this year, that is unlikely just based on the number of teams in the hunt. We are just too quick sometimes to give up on young guys, and I still think he's going to be special. (I fully admit I could be wrong, but that's what I think).

I hope you're right, rem. He looked better last night and actually made a stellar play or two, But I gotta tell ya, his penchant for trying to skate it out in front of our own net has got to stop, toot freakin' sweet. Some guys can make that work, but so far, Noah's not one of them. It worked for him once or twice early and then he coughed it up badly and nearly cost us the game. He's not in Division 1 anymore, but almost two years in, he's still playing like he is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...