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OBXer

In-Season Talk 2016-17

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36 minutes ago, OBXer said:

If Justin Faulk falls down and goes boom on the ice and there is nobody in the stands does he make a sound...ouch

If there is an ice failure and the rink is covered in water then the sound of the splash can be heard for seconds after he actually falls. A fan may walk into the arena after the actual fall and still hear the splash.

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I don't think we have a goaltending problem at the moment (obviously) but our goaltending future just took a massive ding today with Alex Nedeljkovic being sent to the ECHL. His numbers are atrocious, Altshullers aren't any better. You also can't say that the Checkers just stink, Leighton's done just fine down there. 

 

If Ronnie's going to have a goalie ready to eventually take over for Cam (as he inevitably ages) he's gotta get a real goalie in the system pretty much as soon as this year.

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9 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

 

Honest question s_d: what in your original post would give us any indication that your comment was meant to be light hearted?  Because to the extent that there might be actual "Faulk sucks" people around here, I'd argue that there are at least as many that still view Faulk as our Golden Boy who can do no wrong. (for the record, I don't think there are many in either of those extreme camps).  But how would anyone know that's not where you were coming from and that you were trying to inject some levity?

 

6 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

 

I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

 

That was light hearted...or was it?

I honestly don't know if you're attempting humor or trying to disguise a somewhat dickish dig.  Maybe you think people know you better than they really do?

 

I do find it interesting that you apparently take offense ("No need to get snippy and splitting hairs that "we're just pointing out his defensive lapses") at remarks that many would find less disagreeable than yours.  It's certainly not that big a deal, just interesting.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Our biggest need organizationally as a whole is goaltending in my opinion. With Neds struggling, we don't really have anyone we can look to in 2019. Forward wise we have a ton to look forward to with Aho producing at a respectable pace already and Gauthier, Roy, Poturalski, Miller, Saarela, Kuokkanen, Tolchinsky, and Zykov rising. Defense is known to be stocked with already young stars in the making on the big club (Hanifin, Pesce, Slavvin) with Fluery, McKeown, Carrick, Bean, and Ganly on the wings and Murphy being a wild wildcard.

 

In goaltending, Beyond Neds, we have Callum Booth, Daniel Altshuller, Colin Olson, Jeremy Helvig, and Jack Lafontaine. The oldest are Olson and Altshuller at 22, Olson is a backup at WMU and Altshuller has bounced between the ECHL and Charlotte posting good numbers in the ECHL and subpar numbers in the AHL. Next oldest is Nedeljkovic, and we all know how he's trending this season. He still has time in his young career to become our goalie of the future, but this season he has really regressed in being able to fill that role. Booth and Helvig both 19 are both also in Juniors. Booth is currently 13-7-1 with around a .920 save % and ~2.90 GAA. He was just traded to the Saint John Sea Dogs from the Quebec Ramparts and lost his first game with his new team. Helvig is starting for the Kingston Frontenacs where he was backup last year. He holds a 14-10-1 record with a .909 save % and 2.65 GAA. LaFontaine is backing up in his freshman season at U. of Michigan. 

 

I'd consider Altshuller and Olson out, Booth being our other contender just behind Nedeljkovic in development. Helvig still has a few more years of Juniors left to go, and LaFontaine won't go pro for potentially another four years.

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6 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I honestly don't know if you're attempting humor or trying to disguise a somewhat dickish dig.  Maybe you think people know you better than they really do?

 

I do find it interesting that you apparently take offense ("No need to get snippy and splitting hairs that "we're just pointing out his defensive lapses") at remarks that many would find less disagreeable than yours.  It's certainly not that big a deal, just interesting.

 

No need to make a mountain out of a molehill.  There are some who have taken on Faulk as the new whipping boy (and he has had some defensive lapses this year, no doubt).  Due to injury, he's out and I make a statement that relates to that.  I figured it would be seen as I intended, a ridiculous statement.  Next thing I know, panties are wadded up and some are defending their FSS membership while denying it at the same time.

 

Dickish dig?  Yep, and not even disguised.  I clarified myself and you just won't let it go.  As for taking offense, my skin is a bit thicker than that and I'm not the one that won't let it go.  I have now explained it all I intend to.

 

On my original comment on Murphy, Forslund even stated last night that he had another and probably his biggest chance to show he could stick in the NHL.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Most of the time I'm your typical numbers guy. If it directly effects me, I'm in, when you start into stats on who wins the most faceoffs from the left dot in California during Tuesday games, I'm done. But a quirk in the numbers caught my attention. Using the NHL wild card numbers from today. In the East : Pens, Jackets, Rangers,Habs, Sens, Bruins, Caps, and Flyers are in. In the West : Hawks, Wild, Blues, Sharks, Oilers, Ducks, Flames, and Kings are in. Now here is the quirk. Three teams have a minus number when you combine Loss with OT versus Wins,  Bruins -1, Ducks -2, and Kings -1.  At about 36 games in it will be interesting to see who stays in and who moves out. Right now Tampa is the only team on the outside that is at an even number. 

Edited by winger52

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6 hours ago, SuckaPunchd said:

Our biggest need organizationally as a whole is goaltending in my opinion. With Neds struggling, we don't really have anyone we can look to in 2019. Forward wise we have a ton to look forward to with Aho producing at a respectable pace already and Gauthier, Roy, Poturalski, Miller, Saarela, Kuokkanen, Tolchinsky, and Zykov rising. Defense is known to be stocked with already young stars in the making on the big club (Hanifin, Pesce, Slavvin) with Fluery, McKeown, Carrick, Bean, and Ganly on the wings and Murphy being a wild wildcard.

 

In goaltending, Beyond Neds, we have Callum Booth, Daniel Altshuller, Colin Olson, Jeremy Helvig, and Jack Lafontaine. The oldest are Olson and Altshuller at 22, Olson is a backup at WMU and Altshuller has bounced between the ECHL and Charlotte posting good numbers in the ECHL and subpar numbers in the AHL. Next oldest is Nedeljkovic, and we all know how he's trending this season. He still has time in his young career to become our goalie of the future, but this season he has really regressed in being able to fill that role. Booth and Helvig both 19 are both also in Juniors. Booth is currently 13-7-1 with around a .920 save % and ~2.90 GAA. He was just traded to the Saint John Sea Dogs from the Quebec Ramparts and lost his first game with his new team. Helvig is starting for the Kingston Frontenacs where he was backup last year. He holds a 14-10-1 record with a .909 save % and 2.65 GAA. LaFontaine is backing up in his freshman season at U. of Michigan. 

 

I'd consider Altshuller and Olson out, Booth being our other contender just behind Nedeljkovic in development. Helvig still has a few more years of Juniors left to go, and LaFontaine won't go pro for potentially another four years.

 

I will agree 100% with everything you said.  I think Nedeljkovic underperforming a bit has put a damper in GMRF's plans going forward.  His reason for not acquiring a big name goalie was the fact he thought he had a prospect near NHL ready, and there was no point giving long term years/money to someone else.  And I'll defend the Lack acquisition every time, but I think RF feels burned and soured by giving a guy years/money before playing a game with Carolina.  

 

I'm just worried going forward that the Lack extension + Nedeljkovic flop will make RF hesitant to progress in the crease.  I've said my piece about Cam, and I'm glad he's playing well, but we still have no long term solution in net.  And goaltending is such a huge part of what makes a team a consistent playoff team, that it can't be ignored.

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39 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

I will agree 100% with everything you said.  I think Nedeljkovic underperforming a bit has put a damper in GMRF's plans going forward.  His reason for not acquiring a big name goalie was the fact he thought he had a prospect near NHL ready, and there was no point giving long term years/money to someone else.  And I'll defend the Lack acquisition every time, but I think RF feels burned and soured by giving a guy years/money before playing a game with Carolina.  

 

I'm just worried going forward that the Lack extension + Nedeljkovic flop will make RF hesitant to progress in the crease.  I've said my piece about Cam, and I'm glad he's playing well, but we still have no long term solution in net.  And goaltending is such a huge part of what makes a team a consistent playoff team, that it can't be ignored.

 

I'm not done with Lack yet. He has only started 35 out of a possible 118. And out of those 35 what was his longest streak of consecutive starts ?

Edited by winger52

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Lack has done a great job of opening the bench door.

 

It would have been nice to see Lack play a bit before the extension.  Not RF's best move, but hardly a back breaker.  Ned's regression is a concern.  He looked great in the World Juniors. 

Edited by super_dave_1

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I wonder if Ned might have been better off with a stop in the ECHL given that the position is so "head sensitive"?  I say that recognizing that it's Monday Morning Quarterbacking, especially since no one could have foreseen that Leighton would go up for as long as he did and that we'd be asking Ned to be the main man in Charlotte.

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1 hour ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

  

 

  I've said my piece about Cam, and I'm glad he's playing well, but we still have no long term solution in net.  And goaltending is such a huge part of what makes a team a consistent playoff team, that it can't be ignored.

Yep and we all know Cam's injury history. The way he is being ridden it is just a matter of time before an injury occurs. When that happens we are screwed.

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1 hour ago, winger52 said:

 

I'm not done with Lack yet. He has only started 35 out of a possible 118. And out of those 35 what was his longest streak of consecutive starts ?

 

Oh I'm not done with him either, but I think it's pretty clear he's not going to get a fair shot here.  Neither goalie stepped up to start the year.  Cam got the benefit of the doubt and stepped up.  I see why they went with him, and agreed with the decision.  But I just feel like we're never going to progress with him here.  I don't want to turn this into a debate, I'm just thinking about the future.

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58 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

Lack has done a great job of opening the bench door.

 

It would have been nice to see Lack play a bit before the extension.  Not RF's best move, but hardly a back breaker.  Ned's regression is a concern.  He looked great in the World Juniors. 

 

I agree with your assessment, but I think RF views Lack as a gamble that didn't pay off, and my concern is the Lack move being the precedent for why he won't try to acquire another goalie.

 

My concern is the revolving door we have in the net outside of Cam.  In addition, I think other players/agents see how we do business, and I feel it dissuades players from wanting to come here.

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1 hour ago, winger52 said:

 

I'm not done with Lack yet. He has only started 35 out of a possible 118. And out of those 35 what was his longest streak of consecutive starts ?

 

We had what seemed like 2 months of open goalie tryouts last season and the first 3 weeks of this season was a goalie carousel. Each time a goalie played well they got to play again until BP got fed up and declared a winner last year and Cam earned the job this year. He's not giving Lack a stretch of games for the heck of it.

Edited by legend-1

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Goalie is absolutely a good topic. The biggest reason we are playing so well right now is Cam Ward. That has given us a respite from the pure panic that existed just before Cam started playing well. Goalie is such a crap shoot. That's part of the problem, especially predicting which Junior hockey goalie will be an NHL star. I think really part of the problem is that every position is really a bit of a crap shoot, but each team is drafting so many forwards and dmen, and so many more of them are available for trading, that the effect of one or two guys gets diluted out, while only one goalie can really be a #1 goalie, and at any given time, at best only around 20 goalies in the world are preforming decently in that #1 role.

 

Just look at drafting them. The single most important position on the ice, and they are rarely taken at the top of the draft. And even some can't miss guys that were taken high have famously flamed out. Then, even in the course of several seasons goalies can be up and down. My pick for us was Brian Elliott. Cost was pretty cheap and the last three years: .917, .930, .922. This year: .890. Oops. Glad no one listened to me on that one.

 

Injury to Cam or riding him too hard is legit too. I know Lack has underperformed, but so did Ward for at least three years, so maybe Lack can at least get to average. That's what we need now.

 

As to the future, I think Cam has at least 1-2 decent years left (though maybe more), and his remarkable stretches both last year and this make him our best short term future guy. But long term? That is indeed a question. At least outwardly the organization has laid the mantle on Ned, but he has been inconsistent, really for a long time, even counting his great WJT, and his setback in Charlotte shows he has a ways to go still. But his is young and athletic. Seems like he needs the right goalie coach to help him find consistency.

 

It is going to be tricky finding that guy. Maybe the expansion draft puts a guy in jeopardy that is relatively young and has some proven NHL starts. I really think maybe that might be the move since we could expose Lack. There is a guy like Ben Bishop, but he's a UFA next year and 30. I don't think Francis wants to trade anything significant, and even if he made it to UFA, with Ward here...and us being us, not sure a guy like that signs, plus he gets a big contract on the wrong side of 30.

 

Right now we need Lack to find at least even water. And next year that could work too. But beyond that? Yeah, if Francis could pick up a promising prospect or guy caught in a goalie triad, or the expansion draft, that would be good.

Edited by remkin

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

Just look at drafting them. The single most important position on the ice, and they are rarely taken at the top of the draft. And even some can't miss guys that were taken high have famously flamed out. Then, even in the course of several seasons goalies can be up and down. My pick for us was Brian Elliott. Cost was pretty cheap and the last three years: .917, .930, .922. This year: .890. Oops. Glad no one listened to me on that one.

 

 

Yeah, that's the thing about finding goaltenders.  People can say Francis should have gone after a goaltender, but where does he go?  He's regularly bringing in new lottery tickets in the draft.  Where else does he go?  I think we can all agree that Raleigh probably isn't destination #1 for many starting goaltenders not named Ward.  So what FAs might be interested in Raleigh?  Backups who are potential starters stuck behind solid #1s.  Like, say, Khudobin (a Rutherford signing, but re-signed by Francis).  But just like with a draft pick, it's a crap shoot whether it pays off.  It didn't.  And even if Francis could bring in a #1, like Rem said, look at Elliot - a crap shoot for the Flames that didn't pay off.  There are no guarantees that even if you bring in last year's Boy Wonder that he's going to have a repeat performance.

 

So where else do you look?  Trades.  But like FA #1s wanting to come to Raleigh, not many GMs are going to want to trade their #1s to Raleigh.  So what goaltenders might we look at?  Again, Backups who are potential starters stuck behind solid #1s.  Hello Lacko Taco.  But again it's a crap shoot, and while the jury is still out, i don't think anyone's seeing Lack as the heir apparent at this point.  I hope Ward can stay healthy and give us another season and a half of solid goaltending, but like everyone else, i don't know where the goaltending is going to come from beyond that.
 

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It looks like Murph took one for the team

 

 
Quote

 

Ryan Murphy not at practice today, so D pairs are this: Slavin-Pesce Hanifin-Hainsey Dahlbeck-Tennyson

Peters on Murphy: "Took some stitches in tough spot to heal up. We gave him today & hopefully it doesn't open up." Could be good for Friday.

 

 

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 Stayed in Raleigh last night, and the hotel had the NHL Network, NBC Sports, but no Fox Sports South. The article about last night's game was on page 5 of the N&O sports section. Just seems wrong.

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18 minutes ago, caniac6 said:

 Stayed in Raleigh last night, and the hotel had the NHL Network, NBC Sports, but no Fox Sports South. The article about last night's game was on page 5 of the N&O sports section. Just seems wrong.

And that, dear friend, is the ultimate source of the relocation rumors that frequent the Canadian press. It's just so infuriating how so little attention our local "sports casters" give to this great sport, and still the only pro sport with any kind of title!! You think that's bad, try living east of I-95. Routinely, as I drive home after games, entering my county, reception is awful, despite the reputed increase in broadcast power that 99.9 bragged about a few years back. Either it's dropped back, or the competing station in Wilmington increased their signal. How does anyone in the organization believe they can grow a sport, when they are the "red headed stepchild" of sports locally? 

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58 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

You think that's bad, try living east of I-95. Routinely, as I drive home after games, entering my county, reception is awful, despite the reputed increase in broadcast power that 99.9 bragged about a few years back.

 

 

You think that's bad, try living in Charlotte.  At least you have a station that pretends to cover your county.

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At least to me, the idea that we might trade Faulk was not because he sucks, but because he was the only player we had at a position where we have depth (admittedly young and some unproven) that could bring back the type of player we might be seeking in a trade. His injury now gives everyone a look at what the short term looks like with him gone. Either RF does not think McKeown or Fleury is ready, or he is committed to giving them a full year in Charlotte notwithstanding the need in Raleigh this year. The recent goaltending discussion may show that Faulk could be a piece we need to solve our goaltending need in the offseason. There are some teams that need to move a goalie before the expansion draft (Pittsburgh and Tampa come to mind), but both surely want to keep both of their goalies for the playoffs, or in Tampa's case, until it is clear they will not make the playoffs. At least for the present, we do not have a defenseman with the offensive game Faulk brings, but because they are younger, cheaper and have not reached their full potential, I don't think Slavin, Pesce or Hanifan are going anywhere. Thus the endless discussion about Faulk.

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Reading,and I'm sure multiple have touched on this before, but this young goalie in Detroit, Coreay, is playing well and possibly making Mrazek expendible. Anyone think that he might be a target for RF? I suppose we probably should take another at Lack, but I'd hate to pass on a potential Cam replacement, particularly with the way our pipeline seems to be fading? He, of course was reference to Mrazek, although I'm unsure of his potential?l

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Just looking around some team stats, one advanced stat we excel at, which also passes the sniff test, is "shot attempts % close". This is basically a stat that indicates a team's ability to generate more shots than their opposition when the game is close. We are #5 in the league in this category.

 

Strictly it is counted when there is a 1 goal lead for either team in periods 1-2 and a tie in period 3. During those times (close games) it is our shots divided by all shots for both teams x 100.

 

To me what this says is that we keep playing in tight games. And that is what the eye sees too. In years past, getting down by a goal was often terminal, or getting up by a goal lead to clamp down. Neither is the case with this team. This team maintains the advantage in play in tight games. And that has been against really good teams too.

 

This stat, like most advanced stats, doesn't count finishing, and that could be the remaining difference between us and elite teams, but it is another indicator suggesting that the foundation in play is there.

Edited by remkin

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