Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
OBXer

In-Season Talk 2016-17

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I just saw we sent NED down from Charlotte to the Florida Everblades.

 

 

 

I guess this is why you draft a bunch of goalies. You just don't know. Frankly, I'd draft a bunch this  year if we keep some picks. All that said, in a couple of years Ned may still figure it out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slavin makes the "NHL's all underrated team" on NHL.com.

 

Nice to see him get some well deserved recognition. Imagine where this team would be without Slavin and Pesce emerging. 

 

Also, way back when we were playing the Canadians I believe, one of the commentators said "Jacob Slavin, probably the best defenseman in the NHL you've never heard of."

 

.

Edited by Kyrule
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slavin and Pesce might deserve a lifetime achievement award of sorts for managing a positive plus minus on this team. I mean put it on a mantle boys you will have deserved it. Right next to the future Cup.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, as it want to happen this time of year, my attention wanders over to the mock draft and prospect pool a bit.

 

It is too soon for a detailed analysis, heck they always change around April anyways, but a couple of points.

 

1. I did not realize it, but the Vegas team has been slotted into the #3 slot. This kind of sucks because the way this team is playing, that would be our "best case" slot. We are not likely to "catch" Arizona, and we are absolutely not catching Colorado for the #1 slot.

 

So, lottery aside, the best we can do as far at moving up the draft board would be #4.  But this is a whole new draft lottery.

 

2. The top 3 picks will all be determined by lottery, making the #4 slot, either 1,2,3,4,5,6, or 7, with a 10% chance at #1 and a 30% chance at top 3. There are so many possible combinations of outcomes, from where we actually finish, to how the lottery goes, that it's impossible to really even narrow down the guys we might pick very much at this point.

 

3. Based on ppg, we are currently in the #9 slot. But again, teams are packed into the 4-10 slots, so we could slide up or down a lot. Then, based on our slot, our chances of getting higher picks go up or down. The best would be finishing 3rd worst, and getting slotted into the 4 slot pre-lottery. The farther down the draft board, the more likely you pick in that slot.

 

4. And this is the main point. While the draft is said to be a bit weak, there are a ton of big forwards in the top 15. Looking at Morreale and Kimmelman's last mock drafts on NHL.com, the top 6 ranked players are forwards, all 6'1" or bigger, and 13 of the top 15 are forwards, and 12/13 are 6-1 or bigger.

 

Weak draft or not, there are some intriguing forwards in the top half where we are guaranteed to pick. And there is pretty good consensus on the top 10.

 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, remkin said:

1. I did not realize it, but the Vegas team has been slotted into the #3 slot. This kind of sucks because the way this team is playing, that would be our "best case" slot. We are not likely to "catch" Arizona, and we are absolutely not catching Colorado for the #1 slot.

 

So, lottery aside, the best we can do as far at moving up the draft board would be #4.  But this is a whole new draft lottery.

 

This is not true. Vegas gets the SAME odds as the #3 team in the draft, they don't BECOME the #3 team in the draft. So the odds will go:

 

  1. 17.936%
  2. 12.124%
  3. 10.321%
  4. 10.321%
  5. 8.517%
  6. etcetera...

So if we finish third worst, we get 3rd worst odds...same as Vegas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

 

This is not true. Vegas gets the SAME odds as the #3 team in the draft, they don't BECOME the #3 team in the draft. So the odds will go:

 

  1. 17.936%
  2. 12.124%
  3. 10.321%
  4. 10.321%
  5. 8.517%
  6. etcetera...

So if we finish third worst, we get 3rd worst odds...same as Vegas.

 

Those are the odds that I quoted. Basically finishing 4th gives us the same odds as finishing 3rd. Again the odds I quoted for #4. Look at #3 and #4, they have the same odds. Which are the odds I listed for us if we finish 4th.

 

But the question is, what if neither the #4 team, or Vegas wins any of the top slots?(about a 50-50 chance).  Where does Vegas pick then? Do they drop to #15 or do they start at #3 and shift down based on who wins the lottery? If it is the later, then the team that finishes third from the bottom would pick after Vegas, and thus #4, 5, 6, or 7 depending on who wins the lottery for the top 3. In that case Vegas would push us down one slot.

 

Again, what is the process for where Vegas picks if they don't win the lottery.

 

I'm right about the #4 team odds, but not 100% sure about where Vegas would pick after the lottery if they don't win it.

 

This is all done to discourage tanking. Too bad since this is a year that it just might happen. But it leaves so many variables that one can't really even guess.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

from NHL.com:

 

The Las Vegas franchise will be given the same odds in the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery as the team finishing with the third-fewest points during the 2016-17 regular season.

 

The Las Vegas franchise's First Round selection in the 2017 NHL Draft will be determined in accordance with the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery and, as a result, the Las Vegas franchise will be guaranteed no lower than the sixth overall selection.

 

The Las Vegas franchise then will select third in each subsequent round of the 2017 NHL Draft (subject to trades and other potential player transactions).

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So they are basically slotted into the #3 slot pre lottery, as I thought.

 

Since the 1-3 slots are lottery picks, #3 could be pushed down 3 slots if all the slots are won by teams lower than 3. Three slots down, being the 6th slot.

 

So, yes, if we were to finish 3rd from the bottom, we would slot into the 4th slot pre-lottery, one slot lower than we would have any other year.

 

Basically, the two worst teams slot ahead of Vegas, and everyone else gets behind them, pre-lottery in the first, and all of the subsequent rounds.

It would take a pretty big collapse to fall into the #2 pick slot for us to drop below Arizona.

 

I will say that even from someone who really wants us to have a shot at that top guy, this convoluted lottery does make it a lot less worth any sort of even vague tank. Even if you filter down to 2nd worst, the odd are that you pick #4 or 5 when the lottery is over as the entire bottom of the draft has a greater combined odds of moving into the top 3 than the top 2 teams do. And no team has a very good chance of winning the #1 pick.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean I'm happy we have a chance at that pick but you'd really think they'd give that team the first overall choice to help things along. That team's going to be a joke next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Law-Dawg said:

If he's there for the taking, we'd have to take Rasmussen, I'd think. That pick could also be a BIG part of a trade for an NHL ready player. 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Michael-Rasmussen

 

Thanks for posting. Rasmussen looks like the type of player we are in need of. I haven't looked much at this years draft but I guess it is getting near the time I should pay attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eric with another 2 goal night.  We would have made the playoffs if he was on the team this year.   it's becoming ever more so.obvious that he did not fail this franchise but the franchise failed him.  I will root for the Wild in the post season.

Edited by bluedevil58

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

Eric with another 2 goal night.  We would have made the playoffs if he was on the team this year.   it's becoming ever more so.obvious that he did not fail this franchise but the franchise failed him.  I will root for the Wild in the post season.

 

First I would like to say I'm happy for E. He has found his game and he is being used in a more appropriate role. Sometimes in sports, especially in hockey, both an organization and a player need a fresh start. E isn't the first player to regain his form and the Canes aren't the first team that had to let go of the past to build a future.

 

Don't you think if E had stayed here and E was still regarded as the salvation or failure of the team we wouldn't be sitting here in the exact same position we find the team in?

 

With E departure it did leave a hole. We don't have a captain, we don't have a first line center (yet) but  what we do have is a future.

 

IMO good for E and good for us. It was time for the change in direction.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/10/2017 at 1:32 PM, Law-Dawg said:

If he's there for the taking, we'd have to take Rasmussen, I'd think. That pick could also be a BIG part of a trade for an NHL ready player. 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Michael-Rasmussen

 

That would be a good one LD.

 

Right now we could pick just about anywhere from 1, to 4-14. It is hard to see us picking 2 or 3, that's about the only thing we do know.

 

However, the list below does skip two Dmen, so is pretty complete list at this moment (guys will fall and rise) of guys we might pick:

 

For a "weak" draft, there are a lot of big forwards in the top 15.  Here's a brief survey based on two NHL.com mock drafters:

 

1. Nolan Patrick: 6'3": consensus #1. All around player with high end playmaking and shooting skills. Big center.

2. Nico Hircher: 6'1": elite hockey sense, scoring touch, plays with an edge. Dominating in Juniors and excelled at WJT

3. Gabriel Vilard: 6'3": skilled puck handler, elite hockey sense, all 3 zones, composed.

4. Owen Tippett: 6'1": power forward, exceptional skater, NHL shot, knows how to get to the right spots on the ice.

5. Michael Rasmussen: 6'6": huge, uses frame, goes to dirty areas, "goal scoring machine". (reminds me some of Gauthier).

6. Casey Mittlestatdt: 6'1": elite puck skills, excelled in US hockey league, going to U Minn.

7. Eeli Tolvanen: 5'10": the only small guy in the top 13 forwards. Fast, elite hockey sense, intense, elite skill set, "gifted offensively", going to BC.

8. Cody Glass*: 6'2": constant motor, good playmaker, compared to Patrice Bergeron. Scoring 1.3 ppg.

9. Klim Kostin: 6'3": power forward, good puck control, good skater, uses size, intense drive, determination.

10. Elias Peterson: 6'1": Playing with men in Sweden. Leads his team as an 18 yo. Playmaker, great on PP.

11. Ryan Poehling: 6'2": speed, smarts, generates offense, youngest player in D1 College hockey: "complete package".

 

*One of the two rankings has Glass at 15, but the rest are fairly agreed on.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, bluedevil58 said:

Eric with another 2 goal night.  We would have made the playoffs if he was on the team this year.   it's becoming ever more so.obvious that he did not fail this franchise but the franchise failed him.  I will root for the Wild in the post season.

 

Still grinding the Eric thing? He had plenty of chances to show a desire to be here. Just look at his last season here, It was a contract year when players who want to stay with their teams put in extra effort to show that . Not our ex captain. Same old, same old. He needed to move on that's whey he waived. Get over it. He's not making a second appearance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, remkin said:

1. Nolan Ryan: 6'3": consensus #1. All around player with high end playmaking and shooting skills. Big center.

 

I heard this kid has a big arm. Bet he wins the Cy Young award one day...

 

...but seriously, you mean Nolan Patrick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, remkin said:

Right now we could pick just about anywhere from 1, to 4-14. It is hard to see us picking 2 or 3, that's about the only thing we do know.

 

Why do we have worse odds for the second and third lottery spots? We should have better odds for those two picks than the first pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

I heard this kid has a big arm. Bet he wins the Cy Young award one day...

 

...but seriously, you mean Nolan Patrick.

Yeah, thanks. Slipped on that one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, remkin said:

 

That would be a good one LD.

 

Right now we could pick just about anywhere from 1, to 4-14. It is hard to see us picking 2 or 3, that's about the only thing we do know.

 

However, the list below does skip two Dmen, so is pretty complete list at this moment (guys will fall and rise) of guys we might pick:

 

For a "weak" draft, there are a lot of big forwards in the top 15.  Here's a brief survey based on two NHL.com mock drafters:

 

1. Nolan Ryan Patrick: 6'3": consensus #1. All around player with high end playmaking and shooting skills. Big center.  While Patrick remains sidelined recovering from hernia surgery he remains the top-rated prospect on many lists after collecting 102-points last season as a WHL sophomore. What perhaps was even more impressive was his 30 points in the playoffs in leading Brandon to a Memorial Cup berth, strong evidence that when the competition steps up he's a big-time player. He's a complete center who boasts size, strength, smarts vision, competitiveness, soft hands and a great shot. His skating may be the only thing not considered to be above average but isn't seen as a negative either.

2. Nico Hircher: 6'1": elite hockey sense, scoring touch, plays with an edge. Dominating in Juniors and excelled at WJT The high-end skills and smarts are so tantalizing. Hischier is certainly giving Patrick a run for his money and surpassing the Wheat King is not out of the question.

3. Gabriel Vilard: 6'3": skilled puck handler, elite hockey sense, all 3 zones, composed. Skating is the knock, but scouts are already downplaying it by hyping up his other skills. Vilardi is big, smart and talented and really, the speed isn’t that bad right now.

4. Owen Tippett: 6'1": power forward, exceptional skater, NHL shot, knows how to get to the right spots on the ice. A weaponized winger with size, speed and a big-time shot, Tippett doesn’t have the versatility of Vilardi, but the physical tools are beguiling.

5. Michael Rasmussen: 6'6": huge, uses frame, goes to dirty areas, "goal scoring machine". (reminds me some of Gauthier). Good skater, good hands and can assert himself - maybe not physically, but can make things difficult for opponents. A Top 2 line winger or centre." The 6-6 center possesses a strong skating stride, smooth hands and a pro release and shot that will allow him to score plenty of goals at the next level. There are now whispers that he may end up being the first player chosen in the draft. A 6-6 center with his goal-scoring abilities are a rare breed indeed. On top of that, he plays a solid two-way game and has superior vision and passing skills as well. Comparisons to Keith Primeau are far from overblown.

6. Casey Mittlestatdt: 6'1": elite puck skills, excelled in USA hockey league, going to U Minn. he Minnesota commit wanted one more shot at a state title, so Mittelstadt is currently laying waste to high schoolers with Eden Prairie. Tons of skill and he put up numbers in the USHL, too.

7. Eeli Tolvanen: 5'10": the only small guy in the top 13 forwards. Fast, elite hockey sense, intense, elite skill set, "gifted offensively", going to BC. A wicked shot in a smaller package. The Boston College recruit is a pure goal-scorer and draws penalties with his skill. Mixed opinions out there on his feistiness.

8. Cody Glass*: 6'2": constant motor, good playmaker, compared to Patrice Bergeron. Scoring 1.3 ppg. He’s a big centre, has great vision, really handles the puck well and plays a 200-foot game,” Johnston added. “His reads are very good and his hockey IQ is high. 

9. Klim Kostin: 6'3": power forward, good puck control, good skater, uses size, intense drive, determination. "The Russian is a big, strong, aggressive winger who can score and make plays. He doesn't have blinding speed but is a strong, powerful skater who can play both the power and skill game, though there tends to be an erratic quality to his play. He is, however, identified as a potential top six winger who has some similar traits to Russian winger Valeri Nichushkin."

10. Elias Peterson: 6'1": Playing with men in Sweden. Leads his team as an 18 yo. Playmaker, great on PP. A crafty and agile two-way forward, Pettersson is consistently productive in all three zones. As he gets stronger, he'll become even more physical and aggressive than he is now, and his creativity could definitely elevate his game to dominant levels. He can be described as a tenacious, jack-of-all-trades kind of player; he is well versed in all the important aspects of his own game. His speed and top-end acceleration continue to improve game by game, and his hard-nosedness shows through in his dogged pursuit of puck control. Elias Pettersson is a complete hockey player that brings intellect and youthful exuberance to a game that feeds on his kind of exciting athleticism.

11. Ryan Poehling: 6'2": speed, smarts, generates offense, youngest player in D1 College hockey: "complete package".

 At 17, he’s playing college hockey and has two goals and three points in his first six games. He’s 6-2, and projects to be a power forward.

“You can see the confidence coming with him,” Button said. “Centerman like him don’t last long in the draft.”

 

*One of the two rankings has Glass at 15, but the rest are fairly agreed on.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...