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In-Season Talk 2016-17

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I can't see us getting lower than the 10th pick, so one of these guys should be available to us. If we don't trade the pick, I assume we would take the Swede. JK. Actually, the lower we pick, the more likely I could see us trading the pick with other assets to fill the glaring needs this team has if it wants to compete for the playoffs next year. Sadly, I have grown accustomed to speculating who we might draft in March rather than how we will do in the playoffs. Let's hope it stops this year.

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Well we have one more season of this, according to the "five year" plan. I'm really looking forward to '18-'19.     WoooooooHooooooo.

Edited by winger52

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I know we already have an Elias but the more I read about  Elias Pettersson he seems to have outstanding skills. He's 6'2 but needs to start eating some Angus quality meat.The Reindeer diet isn't working. He also is already used to the  fan size within the  arena.     http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Elias-Pettersson

 

Edited by slapshot02

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4 hours ago, winger52 said:

Well we have one more season of this, according to the "five year" plan. I'm really looking forward to '18-'19.     WoooooooHooooooo.

 

The thing is I don't remember RF actually saying it is a five year rebuild. I remember I along with a few others speculated early on if it would be a 3 or 5 year rebuild becaue most rebuilds are designed that way. I could be wrong but all I remember Francis saying is he wanted to build a team that not only could reach the playoffs but consistently reach the playoffs.

 

I wonder if our expectations of a five year plan is actually true. I'm with you on looking forward and hoping 18-19 will be a great season. I'm also hoping 17-18 will be  a better season.

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13 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

The thing is I don't remember RF actually saying it is a five year rebuild. I remember I along with a few others speculated early on if it would be a 3 or 5 year rebuild becaue most rebuilds are designed that way. I could be wrong but all I remember Francis saying is he wanted to build a team that not only could reach the playoffs but consistently reach the playoffs.

 

I wonder if our expectations of a five year plan is actually true. I'm with you on looking forward and hoping 18-19 will be a great season. I'm also hoping 17-18 will be  a better season.

Before he took the Leafs job, Babcock said it would be a 5 year rebuild and got a commitment from Toronto mgmt to such.  It wouldn't surprise me if that's where the "5 years" comes from.  

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17 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Why do we have worse odds for the second and third lottery spots? We should have better odds for those two picks than the first pick.

We have about as much chance at "catching" the 2 bottom teams as we do of catching a wild card spot.  So unless I'm mistaken, we either win the lottery and pick 1st or we're picking 3rd or lower.  And as of right now, we're at hockey .500 while 8 other teams are below hockey .500 (how's that for sidestepping the GIH issue? ;))

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Francis contract runs through 2018/19 making it 5 years under his tenure that started 2014. It will be interesting to see where we are at in 2018/19 and whether his contract will be extended.

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It would be pretty hard to sell an 8 year rebuild. Just saying.

 

One of the hardest things for us fans to do is to see what the plant is going to look like when we are looking at the sprout.

 

In the NYR game and last night too, there were real signs of offensive creativity, and real signs of offensive difficulty, and defensive breakdowns. There were stretches where guys were really making things go 5 on 5, and creative too, and I got to thinking, if forwards peak around 28 and D men around 29*, then what should we expect of, say a 22 year old Teuvo Taravainen, who is on a 42 point pace in his second full NHL season and showing flashes, and now 4 points in 5 games? Or what about Elias Lindholm, also 22, who has now put up 25 points in his last 27 games, and looks like a guy picked #5 overall?

 

What about a guy like Noah Hanfin, who was thought to possibly be trade bait? Again, NHL D men peak at 29, and tend to find their NHL game around 24. Hanifin, who doesn't turn 21 until half way through next season, has risen to the occasion of being bumped to middle pair and seems to have found a whole new level of consistency. I doubt anyone watching him since the trade deadline would be eager to trade him now, just a few short weeks later. Imagine where his game will be in a few years?

 

Heck, outside of our oldest key forward, (J. Staal at the feeble old age of 28, ironcially the only one right around peak age), even the relatively elderly Skinner and Rask are, at 24, still 4 years shy of peak production. Brock McGinn and PDG just turned 23, with only 63 NHL games and 67 NHL games respectively.

 

I'm sure many noted that this says nothing of one Sebastian Aho, who will be 19 until late July, or Slavin and Pesce and our bevy of prospects.

 

And I would argue that the team is even younger than it seems because our true elders are not central producers (McClemment, Stempniak).

 

All of this is not so say that there is any guarantee that all of these guys will keep improving, just to say that such improvement would be the expected norm.

 

I still think Francis should go out and add the best proven scoring forward he can find, and do it this off season. I'm just saying that there is more of a base of talent here to build on than we might think. This very team had a run of excellence this very season, but could not sustain it. Lately it looks pretty dang good in stretches, but there is inconsistency. That's what you get with a very young (NHL's youngest team).

 

Add one key forward to this group and blend in the natural progression of every name up there, and possibly others, and things could turn around fast.

 

 

*http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

Edited by remkin
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Bad Points

 

Not enough quality goaltending

Not enough leadership

Not enough toughness

Not enough depth

Not enough scoring

Not enough spending

Not enough fans

 

Someone else can make a Good Points list.

 

Edited by RonnieFranchise

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

We have about as much chance at "catching" the 2 bottom teams as we do of catching a wild card spot.  So unless I'm mistaken, we either win the lottery and pick 1st or we're picking 3rd or lower.  And as of right now, we're at hockey .500 while 8 other teams are below hockey .500 (how's that for sidestepping the GIH issue? ;))

 

Well, then, you are mistaken. The draft lottery, starting last year, is for the top three spots, not just the first pick. So any of the 15 teams (14 playoff rejects and Vegas) have a chance at first the 1st pick, then a drawing for the 2nd pick, and then a drawing for the 3rd pick. After those three, the remaining teams are ordered by record and tie breakers.

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Yeah that is a good point Min. I pointed that out, then also forgot in a later post.

 

The fact that all three of the first picks are lottery also creates more options for how far a team that doesn't win a lottery slot can get pushed down. If bottom half teams win the top slots, that pushes everyone previously about them down. Thus if we finish in the 5 slot, we are pushed down to the 6 slot by Vegas, but could get pushed as far down as 9 if teams in the lower half win the top three picks.

 

Additionally we are in a gaggle of teams from #3-18 that in theory a big winning or losing streak could move us quite a few slots either way, pre lottery.

 

There are so many possibilities that all we can say with fairy high certainty is that we will pick in the top 15.

 

Currently we sit in the pick #10 slot in points percentage with 17 games to go. The #10 slot is the #11 pick pre-lottery. If the season suddenly ended today, we would pick 1, 2, 3...11, 12, 13 or 14. With variable odds on each one, but 11/12 most likely.

 

Makes your head spin. Really can't project much at all until closer to the end of the season, and even then the lottery could have a huge affect.

Edited by remkin

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3 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

Well, then, you are mistaken. The draft lottery, starting last year, is for the top three spots, not just the first pick. So any of the 15 teams (14 playoff rejects and Vegas) have a chance at first the 1st pick, then a drawing for the 2nd pick, and then a drawing for the 3rd pick. After those three, the remaining teams are ordered by record and tie breakers.

 

Ah, thanks for the clarification.  

 

Right now the site tankathon has us with a 4.5% chance of the #1 overall pick and 14.4% chance of picking within the top 3.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

I ran their simulator 4 times and we picked 11th twice, 10th once, and got the #1 pick once.  Here's to luck!

Edited by LakeLivin
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I have been hoping we would get a peak at Wallmark.

 

The Chex don't play again until Friday. It will be tough not to return Wallmark to the Chex who are battling for a playoff spot. I guess it will depend on if DiGi or McGinn or Zykov can come back from injury by then.

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I have some magic beans I bought after we lost 5 straight during the see you later beat down tour that I'm willing to throw into the lottery mojo.  You never know

Edited by coastal_caniac

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18 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

The thing is I don't remember RF actually saying it is a five year rebuild. I remember I along with a few others speculated early on if it would be a 3 or 5 year rebuild becaue most rebuilds are designed that way. I could be wrong but all I remember Francis saying is he wanted to build a team that not only could reach the playoffs but consistently reach the playoffs.

 

I wonder if our expectations of a five year plan is actually true. I'm with you on looking forward and hoping 18-19 will be a great season. I'm also hoping 17-18 will be  a better season.

 

 I was thinking 5 years since Peters was hired. But since Babcock was hired in Toronto and that turn around seem to be 2 years, I have been wondering if that is the difference between hiring an experience coach versus a assistant coach.

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40 minutes ago, winger52 said:

 

 I was thinking 5 years since Peters was hired. But since Babcock was hired in Toronto and that turn around seem to be 2 years, I have been wondering if that is the difference between hiring an experience coach versus a assistant coach.

 

You forgot tanking and draft picks.

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5 hours ago, wxray1 said:

 

You forgot tanking and draft picks.

 

Exactly. Auston Matthews #1 overall, in a good draft year, Mitch Marner #4 overall in a better draft year. That 109 points so far between them. 48 direct goals, and probably at least 30 more set up, at least 80 goals accounted for. Mathews on 67 point pace, Marner on 71 point pace. Take those guys off and Toronto is near the basement.

 

Same thing if you take Connor McDavid off of the Oilers.

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So much for a quick recovery

 

Quote

 

4 minutes ago

Peters on if Di Giuseppe (upper body) is close: "Doesn’t look like it to me. He can’t shoot the puck. Other than that he’s great.”

No further word on McGinn or Zykov. Zykov being evaluated today, per Peters. "Those guys, to me, are a long way away.”

 

 

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27 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

Quote

 

Michael Smith @MSmithCanes 4m4 minutes ago

Peters on if Di Giuseppe (upper body) is close: "Doesn’t look like it to me. He can’t shoot the puck. Other than that he’s great.”

No further word on McGinn or Zykov. Zykov being evaluated today, per Peters. "Those guys, to me, are a long way away.”

That's not good, probably an even much bigger impact on the  Chex.as the Canes.

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5 hours ago, wxray1 said:

You forgot tanking and draft picks.

 

33 minutes ago, remkin said:

Exactly. Auston Matthews #1 overall, in a good draft year, Mitch Marner #4 overall in a better draft year. That 109 points so far between them. 48 direct goals, and probably at least 30 more set up, at least 80 goals accounted for. Mathews on 67 point pace, Marner on 71 point pace. Take those guys off and Toronto is near the basement.

 

Same thing if you take Connor McDavid off of the Oilers.

And to rub it in a little more, let's add Nylander on top of the other two. 

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1 hour ago, OBXer said:

No further word on McGinn or Zykov. Zykov being evaluated today, per Peters. "Those guys, to me, are a long way away.”

Do I rightly recall that BP has only confirmed PDG is not concussed? Based on the above, it sounds like both McGinn and Zeke might be. Ugh.

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

And to rub it in a little more, let's add Nylander on top of the other two. 

And an unlimited budget, AND sellouts every night--despite a hologram of the Cup, versus the actual thing - even though it lives right across town - being the best they could hope for, for 40+ years.

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